The Omicron variant

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315891#Comment_118315891

Protection against infection seems to vary with the time from vaccination as the human immune system reduces the coronavirus antibodies (whereas with other viruses the drop off is much slower if ever).

Citations please. If you think of all the viral illnesses you've recovered from in your life, go and get a bloodtest and get them to look for circulating antibodies for any of them. Good luck with that. You'd want some real deep diving to find them. Inflammation markers also shoot up with a viral illness and they too drop right off. Your body doesn't stay in high alert with all those different antibodies in high numbers circulating about. It's inefficient for a start and biological systems don't like waste. Catch the flu tomorrow and check your blood for circulating flu antibodies next summer. Again good luck in finding them in any number, but you will be "immune" to that particular variant of the influenza virus. We only need flu vaccine boosters every year because the virus mutates enough that your immune memory system doesn't recognise the new one.

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315933#Comment_118315933

Nothing has been explained, I'm on boards nearly 10 years, I know how it operates thanks. And no one can claim to "know" either, you haven't been working in a lab with variants have you? So any info posted is just off the net.

My point was... The original virologists in SA, said Omicron was very mild, and people "got over " it at home.

Which IMO is great news. That was my point, no stirring, not trying to wind anyone up, not being rude or arrogant, just simply making a point that IMO Omicron seems nothing to worry about.

There's a Ryanair flight coming in tonight..watch it go through the roof

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315961#Comment_118315961

You asked why there was so many break through cases, that was explained (and can be easily looked up via various papers that have been published, pre-printed and cited here). Hopefully that is the case with Omicron but we'll need to see how it effects those with underlying conditions before it can be proclaimed as milder (and luckily vaccines seem to remain effective against it).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315957#Comment_118315957

The numbers certainly drop but not to the level that seems to happen with coronavirus (measles can be tested for antibodies many years later and still have a decent count, as an example), I'd speculate that given their common and non-severe nature, our immune system doesn't much care for holding onto them the same way as it would other virus. We've never seen the graph go out beyond 9-12 months but it does look like antibodies bottom out at some stage (certainly below the low latency neutralising needed to contain transmission), B/T-Cell response doesn't seem to be much effected (hence why protection against severe disease is still high for the majority many months later, this undoubtedly helps with transmission as well but to a much lower level).

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315850#Comment_118315850

Recorded first case on nov 26 in SA. Of course it was already going around before that.They only started investigating it later as there was no indication anything was unusual because people came into hospital with mild symptoms, most of them non respiratory. Actually, they were pretty quick w sequencing everything considered. Kudos to them.They started more targeted testing after they discovered the (now called )Omicron variant. The positive cases went up quite quickly but did not result in many severe cases as expected like during Delta. The speed and the damage of Delta was so obvious to everyone and it seems a very different equation this time. I will leave the rest of the conjecture to others..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315985#Comment_118315985

I'd say there have been 100 Ryanair flights from England since they've had Omicron..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315985#Comment_118315985

Can you be more specific? Pilot error, terrorist attack or something else entirely? Can you give us a building or street name at least? Will I need me binoculars? Will there be refreshments?

I see sheep

I'm down in London next week for a party/concert/match and it seems fairly rampant so I'll let you know how it goes if I do get it.

ceadaoin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315842#Comment_118315842

Yes, they do, if they are old and frail or have other underlying conditions which lead to a weakened immune system. Surely someone working in a hospital would know this?

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316126#Comment_118316126

Will there be refreshments? 😁🤣🤣👍🏽 had to giggle at that!

igCorcaigh

I hope Omicron is not accounting for much of that 30% increase in London.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1470439096124325892

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315961#Comment_118315961

I don’t know why people want to not believe that because the other option is we are back to March 2020 with a more virulent virus - and everything we did was useless. We would need a Christmas lockdown. A full March 2020 type lockdown, except mid winter.

TalleyRand83

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316047#Comment_118316047

FEARRRRRRRR Dont ruin it for them Adam, its the most animating event ever for some, to most covid is a nuisance and something you'd be thrilled to see in the back mirror.

Boards.ie: "XZY said the omicrom is looking very mild" "well well well wait a sec, we can't be sure...*insert negative comments*" and when the shoe is on the other foot and they post a negative slanted report then anyone who questions it is the big spud munching simpleton who isn't clever enough to know.

Of course there's the cuter few who'll throw all the negatives with a side of "but yes it could be milder we'll have to see"

TalleyRand83

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316145#Comment_118316145

Enjoy, it was a real pleasure to be in London in September, very 2019. People forget things have been that way in UK for quite a while.

ginoginelli

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316168#Comment_118316168

Its still too early to say. In reality concrete data on severity could be months away.

Too many bullshiters on either side with hyperbole at the moment. Im leaning on the less severe than delta side judging from the SA data, but I wouldn't bet on it.

is_that_so

Denmark expecting it to be the dominant strain inside a week. Boosters now for over 40s.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1213/1266379-covid-world/

Micky 32

They are saying Omicron will be the dominant strain in London within the next 48 hours.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316157#Comment_118316157

I have never in my life seen somebody admitted to a hospital bed on the back of the common cold. I have on occasion seen people admitted with a cold sore. They were immunocompromised and HSV can do some damage if spreads systemically. The common cold. Not so much.

If you have evidence that these people admitted to hospital with the omicron variant all had underlying conditions. That would be great. Be useful for your "point".

Could you show me any ED hospital guideline which would admit a patient with a presenting complaint of a common cold.

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316171#Comment_118316171

Believe what? what the SA virologists said about Omicron? "The Alpha variant was the strongest version of c19 to date, the alpha ripped through people, what we see now with Delta is a much weakened virus" end quote

Spoken to me by top paramedic teachers who were called back into frontline work in the past 2 years.

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316339#Comment_118316339

Christ that's getting around quicker than 10 thousand rats with their tails on fire, hard to believe tbh

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316339#Comment_118316339

Despite the UK as a whole being up and down over the last while, London just seemed to be growing and growing week after week. Makes you wonder if omicron was spreading unknown there well before SA found it?

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118313689#Comment_118313689

It was also the UK consensus not too long ago that Delta would push up cases between 100.000 and 150.000 per day at the end of the year. Projections, modelling, the works. Almost ALL in agreement about that. Very few extra restrictions put in at the time. It needed Omicron to (likely) get there.

And our own Tony H came out with his no doubt very solid scientifically backed up projections of...well, we dont have to go there now, do we?

So, it is all about boosters now. Forget about whether Omicron is mild or not. That is the clear message. Be very afraid, keep your distance etc.

Somebody said: 'rinse and repeat'.

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316471#Comment_118316471

👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽 sense.. out of this all this Nonsense

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316422#Comment_118316422

With an estimate of current cases and growth rate (around 2.3 days doubling time), it should possible to extrapolate backwards in time to find out? Might be a wide margin of error though. I haven't tried it!

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118315690#Comment_118315690

The post above says that the SA case fatality rate is 0.5%. That is not the common cold, we don't have a case fatality rate that high with Delta because of vaccination.

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1470496884649340939

Ireland +8 ~ Total 18

ACitizenErased

CMO has said an estimated 10% of cases here are omicron

Beasty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317316#Comment_118317316

Which means maybe around 500 today. 1,000 on Wednesday, 2000 by the weekend, and a lot more the following week, based on what's being reported elsewhere. If the figures turn out to be lower that's arguably down to our restrictions compared to, for example, England's having more of an impact (assuming we have the testing capacity to be able to keep up to date with the numbers)

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317316#Comment_118317316

Got to take positives out of it Citizen, at least Ireland has somehow managed not to totally **** up the booster roll out. Not far off from totally messing it up yet somehow have done a very decent job overall 👍️

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316340#Comment_118316340

They come in with respiratory difficulties and usually have underlying health issues like asthma and so on. In elderly people with weakened immune systems a heavy cold or influenza can kill them if they are close to the edge. That happens every year. If they die while having Covid it is seen as a Covid death.That is why stratefying between various patients is so important. They are not giving that info atm, at least not in the UK and SA is also very sparse on detail, essential as they may be.