The Omicron variant

PropJoe10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118260602#Comment_118260602

Well, yes. But there's a lot of data to be looked at before scientists can even guess about that being the case or not. It's something keep an eye on over the next while though.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118260584#Comment_118260584

And if (and that's all it is at the moment) the science concludes that this variant leads to mild symptoms, will you be happy or disappointed with that outcome? Based on your posting style, I would say the latter..

And what exactly is wrong with some posters trying to look at the data in a positive light? There is plenty of negativity abound at the moment, all based on the same uncertainties.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261234#Comment_118261234

Nothing wrong with looking at the data in a positive light - as long as you acknowledge that's what you're doing and also look at the data in its totality. If your just look for the good and ig ore the rest, then you're fooling yourself and you don't need stats to do that. You could just make stuff up.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261255#Comment_118261255

Oh I know that. The point I am making is there are plenty of others looking at the data in a negative, myopic way, to suit their agenda. Some are taking a positive slant on things. The reality is we just don't know yet.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261269#Comment_118261269

I'd prefer to take neither positive or negative slants on the data and just let the data tell its own story.

It's hard enough to know what the data actually says without having to figure out if the data is being presented in a positive or negative way. And then if I don't like what the data says, I can just write it off as a negative slant on the data and presume the opposite is true because that's what I want to think.

I'd always prefer to know the actual truth rather than slant the data

Mango321

I'll be happy.

But there's is no evidence that (beyond anecdata from a couple of GPs).

'Taking a positive slant on things' won't help the actual outcome.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261234#Comment_118261234

corkie

The new coronavirus variant has now been detected in nearly every country in western Europe

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1466599492120199170

432 Confirmed Cases ~ 26,748 Probable (~26,620 SA)

USA ~ 10

ACitizenErased

The Batswana are suggesting now that the variant came from Europe. 4 diplomats tested positive on Nov 11th (subsequently sequenced as omicron) after travelling from Europe.

"Some of the first cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus to be detected in Botswana — which were among the first known in the world — were in foreign diplomats who had traveled to the country from Europe, the country’s president said.

President Mokgweetsi Masisi told CNN on Thursday that four diplomats who tested positive for the coronavirus on Nov. 11, and who were later found to be carrying the new variant, “came from a number of countries.” He added: “Yes, some had been to Europe, and some had been elsewhere.” He did not offer more details.

On Sunday, Botswana’s health minister, Edwin Dikoloti, said that most of the 19 Omicron cases that have been detected in his country were “imported.”"

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-omicron-europe.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

TonyMaloney

16,555 new cases in SA

24.3% positivity

https://www.nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-3-december-2021/

ACitizenErased

Another 75 cases identified in England.

There are now omicron cases in the east midlands, east of England, London, the north east, north west, south east, south west and west midlands.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264050#Comment_118264050

This thing seems like it might be mild enough to give all immunity and burn through quickly.

Better an end to misery than misery without end.

corkie

TOTAL Global CASES 591 (Probable 38,294)

South Africa ~ 217 (38,173)

UK ~ 134 ( as @ACitzenErased mentioned above, big jump)

USA ~ 21

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/

ACitizenErased

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118266139#Comment_118266139

Interestingly there has not been a single death reported with omicron infection so far. And we know from Botswana's reporting that it has been around since at least the end of October.

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118266139#Comment_118266139

What little data there is does not suggest it's mild.

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that it will be similar in severity to past variants. Controversial idea I know.

But coupled with it's obvious transmission advantages it's very bad news.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118266290#Comment_118266290

Hopefully not but you could well be right. From water samples in Gauteng province in South Africa,it is already at the peak levels of Delta but without the hospital cases or death rate that may change.

We'll know soon enough but it looks like a better news story.

TonyMaloney

Sorry Danzy, but the hospital data is not on your side in this argument.

Yes there are anecdotal reports that it's milder, but I'm terms of sheer numbers being admitted it's looking pretty bad.

We really have to wait and see

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118266290#Comment_118266290

I'd say the more accurate way of describing the data is that there's no early indication that its severe. We would knownif it caused unusually early severe symptoms and it hasn't done that yet. It might yet be equally or similarly severe which, as you say, coupled with better transmission means it would be worse overall. But we cannonkybwait and see what actually happens.

The symptoms might also stay mild. And that would be great news. Only time will tell.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118266402#Comment_118266402

Ok, hopefully that will change. Even Milder but all at once is going to be a storm in hospitals.

lbj666

If hospital admissions in Gauteng are a reflection of case numbers even early this week never mind 1--2 weeks ago which is the usual lag to assume...it is a bit of leap to say it's mild.

Off course there's a heap of of other factors, I presume they've no capacity to test asymtomatic, close contact or very minimal symptoms. Prevalence of hiv aswell...unvaxxinated. But it's a predominantly young age bracket so far.

R0 is estimated at 6 compared to 5 with delta before. That not a 20% increase in transmissibility. That's 1,6,36,216,1296,7776, etc. Vs 1,5,25,125,625,3125 etc.

Fishdoodle

Generally, when virus mutate isn’t it the case that they tend to be milder wrt to symptoms? I recall the Taoiseach saying that the Delta was milder than anticipated.

I came across the following article:

Coronaviruses: An Overview of Their Replication and Pathogenesis

( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/ )

It’s published a few years back but gives an interesting overview of viral transmission / lifecycle / treatments etc. and has been cited many times.

One of statements towards the end of the article struck me as interesting with regard to coronavirus vaccine interventions.

“the propensity of the viruses to recombine may pose a problem by rendering the vaccine useless and potentially increasing the evolution and diversity of the virus in the wild”

corkie

TOTAL CASES 721 (38,302)

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1466900223859601409

Do they not test passengers leaving south Africa ???was a covid test not required to fly ?

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268042#Comment_118268042

From the Munster rugby's experience, you could all test negative on Saturday from a test taken on Friday, and then a quarter of the group test positive on Saturday. PCR tests are a snapshot in time, they're not a silver bullet. That's why MHQs were introduced

ACitizenErased

Really interesting studies starting to emerge. One suggests that the virus is after inheriting a feature of the common cold through co-infection.

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 likely acquired at least one of its mutations by picking up a snippet of genetic material from another virus - possibly one that causes the common cold - present in the same infected cells, according to researchers.

This genetic sequence does not appear in any earlier versions of the coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, but is ubiquitous in many other viruses including those that cause the common cold, and also in the human genome, researchers said.

This could mean the virus transmits more easily, while only causing mild or asymptomatic disease. Scientists do not yet know whether Omicron is more infectious than other variants, whether it causes more severe disease or whether it will overtake Delta as the most prevalent variant. It may take several weeks to get answers to these questions.

Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-variant-may-have-picked-up-piece-common-cold-virus-2021-12-03/

Link to study: https://osf.io/f7txy/

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268094#Comment_118268094

Fingers crossed, but there's hundreds of people going to hospital every day in SA with cold symptoms if that's the case

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268143#Comment_118268143

Becoming as ubiquitous as the common cold but as deadly as influenza or covid would be very bad

ACitizenErased

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268143#Comment_118268143

Hundreds of unvaccinated people. No reason to suggest that would happen in western Europe.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268094#Comment_118268094

Fair play for including the original study as well as the media report(and one from a decent source). Few enough do.

discostu1

Firstly I have no great expertise in this area ,Luke O'Neill was on Brendan O'Connor this morning and this is my idiot take.If someone could put up the clip it would be interesting.So as ACE said and Luke confirmed Omicron has sort of grabbed a bit of the common cold, in theory that's a good thing but Luke was strong on saying we need much more data.I think he also said and I may have this wrong that when young kids have a sniffle/cough they are now brought to hospital for observation and then released a few hour later. That is part of the hospitalization figure, again I might have this wrong but worth a listen

Lumen

This is decent.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n24/rupert-beale/on-omicron?s=09

Author's Twitter profile

https://twitter.com/bealelab