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November 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-10-2021 7:54pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,311 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.


    6. BONUS -- Predict the coldest daily maximum at any of the regularly reporting locations (in "yesterday's weather" section of met.ie website), date and location.


    (contest deadline 0300h Sunday 1st, usual late penalties apply).


    Normal ___ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)


    MTC _____ 7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 _ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal___ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 89 _ 3.0 25th Gurteen



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,895 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry___ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 92 _ 2.3c 30th Markree



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,595 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 _ 2.4 26th Knock

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels _____ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 _ 2.6 27th Knock



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,235 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _____ 6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 _ 2.1 29th Knock



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  • Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 7.8 _ 15.9_ -4.5 _ 120_ 90 _ 3.1 28th knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,873 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ___ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 _ 4.2 28th Knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 461 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ___ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 _ 5.0 19th Mullingar



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ___ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 90 _ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,291 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 _ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise



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  • Registered Users Posts: 319 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.7 ___ 15.5 ___ -4.0 ___ 95 ___ 105 ___ 5° 27th. Knock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 _ 4.9 30th Knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,024 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__ 7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 98 _ 3.9 28th newport



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,579 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno ___ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 80 _ 130 _ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise



  • Registered Users Posts: 791 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall____6.8___15.8___-3.7___95___105___2.8 27th Mullingar



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,736 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop_7.6_16.5_-3.2_112_92_3.8 28th Knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.1____16.1°____-3.1°____131____101____3.1° Markree 21st.



  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.1____16.1°____-3.1°____131____101____3.1° Markree 21st



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ___ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 85 _ 90 _ 3.2 27th Knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 85 _ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise



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  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 _ 2.3 19th Knock



  • Registered Users Posts: 354 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 7.3 ___ 14.9 ___ -4.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,900 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7___ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 _ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,311 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for November 2021


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max


    Jpmarn ____________ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 3.2 27th Knock

    Tae laidir ___________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 __ 4.9 30th Knock

    Sunflower3 _________ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.1 28th Knock

    Joe Public __________ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise

    Pauldry ____________ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 092 __ 2.3 30th Markree

    Kindred Spirit _______ 7.7 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.0 27th Knock

    Appledrop __________ 7.6 _ 16.5 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 092 __ 3.8 28th Knock

    Dasa29 ____________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

    Artane2002 _________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 __ 4.2 28th Knock

    M.T. Cranium ________7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 __ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise

    dacogawa __________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 085 __ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise

    DOCARCH __________ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise


    ___ Con Sensus _____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.0 (see notes)


    Adam240610 ________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 __ 2.3 19th Knock

    john mac ___________7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 098 __ 3.9 28th Newport

    200motels __________ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 __ 2.6 27th Knock

    waterways ___ (-1) ___7.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon

    sryanbruen _________ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 2.4 26th Knock


    ___ Normal _________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 (climatology)


    MrSkinner __________7.1 _ 16.1 _ -3.1 _ 131 _ 101 __ 3.1 21st Markree

    Bsal ______________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 089 __ 3.0 25th Gurteen

    Danno ____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 080 _ 130 __ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise

    Gonzo _____________6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 __ 2.1 29th Knock

    Mr stonewall ________6.8 _ 15.8 _ -3.7 _ 095 _ 105 __ 2.8 27th Mullingar

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-2) __ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 __ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise

    ___________________________________

    For the bonus, con sensus has 3.0 as the median value. The dates chosen will be used to determine the score for con sensus and so will the locations ...

    19th _____ 2 ______ Knock ____ 10 (Con scores 3 if correct and 2 if Knock 2nd lowest max)

    21st _____ 2 ______ Ballyhaise __ 6 (Con scores 2 if correct)

    22nd _____ -- _____ Markree ___ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

    23rd _____ 1 ______ Mullingar __ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

    24th _____ 1 ______ Gurteen ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

    25th _____ 1 ______ Newport ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

    26th _____ 1 ______ Mtdillon ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

    27th _____ 6 ______ all others __ 0 (Con scores 0 if another location has low max)

    28th _____ 5

    29th _____ 2

    30th _____ 2

    (for the dates, Con scores 3 if 27th or 28th correct, 2 if any date with 2 selections and 1 if any with 1

    __ (2 for 19th only for 19-20). Con scores zero if low max is any date not chosen.

    Normal scores by climatology (later dates favoured, colder locations).

    For the forecasters, scoring will be determined by error in the date (if any), and for location, the scoring will be determined by ranking of lowest three maxima (each station gets one chance to set a mark in that) and locations not chosen will be left out of the scoring calculations on that element.

    Scoring will be out of 4 for each element which will provide potential for a superbonus of 1 or 2 points however the totals work out. No zero scoring so it will be best six for four, next six for three, next six for two and last five for one point.

    Ties may complicate that a bit, we shall find out. (helpfully 6 chose 27th and 6 chose either 26th or 28th which will smooth out the scores).

    (In case my two column format there confused anyone, there is no connection between the dates and the locations that appear in the same row, just that the locations were listed by most frequent to least, and the dates from early to late).


    __ good luck to all, and if we have any further entries I will edit them into this table __



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mt Dillon -0.2 yesterday.

    The first time below 0 this season?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,736 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    I think your right Tae Laidir, Oct was very mild.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Knock only reached 8.6deg yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    And 8.4 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Claremorris reached 15.0 deg yesterday.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,311 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT 8.1 just 0.3 below normal.

    MAX 15.0 and MIN -0.2

    PRC only 24% of normal, east basically dry.

    SUN at 139% of normal (832/600).

    Lowest max so far only 8.4 C.



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