November 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- Predict the coldest daily maximum at any of the regularly reporting locations (in "yesterday's weather" section of met.ie website), date and location.

(contest deadline 0300h Sunday 1st, usual late penalties apply).

Normal ___ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

MTC _____ 7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 _ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise

Bsal

Bsal___ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 89 _ 3.0 25th Gurteen

pauldry

Pauldry___ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 92 _ 2.3c 30th Markree

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 _ 2.4 26th Knock

200motels

200motels _____ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 _ 2.6 27th Knock

Gonzo

Gonzo _____ 6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 _ 2.1 29th Knock

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____ 7.8 _ 15.9_ -4.5 _ 120_ 90 _ 3.1 28th knock

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 _ 4.2 28th Knock

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 _ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Joe Public

Joe Public ___ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 90 _ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 _ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.7 ___ 15.5 ___ -4.0 ___ 95 ___ 105 ___ 5° 27th. Knock.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 _ 4.9 30th Knock

John mac

john mac__ 7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 98 _ 3.9 28th newport

Danno

Danno ___ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 80 _ 130 _ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall____6.8___15.8___-3.7___95___105___2.8 27th Mullingar

appledrop

Appledrop_7.6_16.5_-3.2_112_92_3.8 28th Knock

mrskinner

Skinner_____7.1____16.1°____-3.1°____131____101____3.1° Markree 21st.

mrskinner

Skinner_____7.1____16.1°____-3.1°____131____101____3.1° Markree 21st

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 85 _ 90 _ 3.2 27th Knock

dacogawa

Dacogawa _____ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 85 _ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise

adam240610

Adam240610____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 _ 2.3 19th Knock

waterways

waterways ___ 7.3 ___ 14.9 ___ -4.1 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7___ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 _ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2021

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max

Jpmarn ____________ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 3.2 27th Knock

Tae laidir ___________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 __ 4.9 30th Knock

Sunflower3 _________ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.1 28th Knock

Joe Public __________ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise

Pauldry ____________ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 092 __ 2.3 30th Markree

Kindred Spirit _______ 7.7 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.0 27th Knock

Appledrop __________ 7.6 _ 16.5 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 092 __ 3.8 28th Knock

Dasa29 ____________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Artane2002 _________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 __ 4.2 28th Knock

M.T. Cranium ________7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 __ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise

dacogawa __________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 085 __ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise

DOCARCH __________ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise

___ Con Sensus _____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.0 (see notes)

Adam240610 ________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 __ 2.3 19th Knock

john mac ___________7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 098 __ 3.9 28th Newport

200motels __________ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 __ 2.6 27th Knock

waterways ___ (-1) ___7.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon

sryanbruen _________ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 2.4 26th Knock

___ Normal _________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 (climatology)

MrSkinner __________7.1 _ 16.1 _ -3.1 _ 131 _ 101 __ 3.1 21st Markree

Bsal ______________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 089 __ 3.0 25th Gurteen

Danno ____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 080 _ 130 __ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise

Gonzo _____________6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 __ 2.1 29th Knock

Mr stonewall ________6.8 _ 15.8 _ -3.7 _ 095 _ 105 __ 2.8 27th Mullingar

BLIZZARD7 __ (-2) __ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 __ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise

___________________________________

For the bonus, con sensus has 3.0 as the median value. The dates chosen will be used to determine the score for con sensus and so will the locations ...

19th _____ 2 ______ Knock ____ 10 (Con scores 3 if correct and 2 if Knock 2nd lowest max)

21st _____ 2 ______ Ballyhaise __ 6 (Con scores 2 if correct)

22nd _____ -- _____ Markree ___ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

23rd _____ 1 ______ Mullingar __ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

24th _____ 1 ______ Gurteen ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

25th _____ 1 ______ Newport ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

26th _____ 1 ______ Mtdillon ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

27th _____ 6 ______ all others __ 0 (Con scores 0 if another location has low max)

28th _____ 5

29th _____ 2

30th _____ 2

(for the dates, Con scores 3 if 27th or 28th correct, 2 if any date with 2 selections and 1 if any with 1

__ (2 for 19th only for 19-20). Con scores zero if low max is any date not chosen.

Normal scores by climatology (later dates favoured, colder locations).

For the forecasters, scoring will be determined by error in the date (if any), and for location, the scoring will be determined by ranking of lowest three maxima (each station gets one chance to set a mark in that) and locations not chosen will be left out of the scoring calculations on that element.

Scoring will be out of 4 for each element which will provide potential for a superbonus of 1 or 2 points however the totals work out. No zero scoring so it will be best six for four, next six for three, next six for two and last five for one point.

Ties may complicate that a bit, we shall find out. (helpfully 6 chose 27th and 6 chose either 26th or 28th which will smooth out the scores).

(In case my two column format there confused anyone, there is no connection between the dates and the locations that appear in the same row, just that the locations were listed by most frequent to least, and the dates from early to late).

__ good luck to all, and if we have any further entries I will edit them into this table __

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon -0.2 yesterday.

The first time below 0 this season?

appledrop

I think your right Tae Laidir, Oct was very mild.

Tae laidir

Knock only reached 8.6deg yesterday.

Tae laidir

And 8.4 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Claremorris reached 15.0 deg yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT 8.1 just 0.3 below normal.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -0.2

PRC only 24% of normal, east basically dry.

SUN at 139% of normal (832/600).

Lowest max so far only 8.4 C.

Tae laidir

Shannon 17.1 deg yesterday.

Jpmarn

MAX is now 17.7 C recorded at Shannon Airport on the 14th.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT has soared to 9.7 C, with this past week average 11.0 which is 3.4 above normal.

MAX 17.7 and MIN -0.2

PRC now 48% with the second week average at 71%.

SUN has fallen off considerably to 95% after a rather cloudy week (52% of normal from 310/600).

BONUS _ I hope that some colder days lie ahead because 8.4 is all we have so far, mind you nobody picked a date earlier than the 19th so it's probably expected.

pauldry

Yes indeed there appears to be a pattern shift coming slight to moderate so we should beat 8.4

M.T. Cranium

The current GFS has the 516 dm thickness into Ulster by 25th-26th, that could support daytime readings around 2-4 C even after marine modification factored in, so I think all forecasts are in play at this point.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon -1.5deg yesterday.

Only the second below freezing this season.

M.T. Cranium

That min was at end of the day on the way down to lower values, saw -3 C so far at Gurteen.

Also new low max at Knock (7.4 C) on 21st.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 9.5 C. Third week average 9.1 (+2.0).

MAX 17.7, MIN -3.1 (Gurteen 22nd)

PRC down to 38% with this past week only 19% of normal.

SUN is around 91% now with the third week at 83.5% (501/600).

New low max is 7.4 (21st Knock), today's current readings suggest that we may find a lower value from today's readings (confirmed 6.8 C at Oak Park 22nd).

M.T. Cranium

Just confirmed in previous post that MIN is now -3.1 and low max is now 6.8 Oak Park 22nd.

Saturday looks capable of going lower for the max. Last night was at least -2 at Athenry and Moorepark so slight chance of the -3.1 already being lower. Further chances for lower minima seem reduced by cloud and wind during coldest nights ahead.

appledrop

It looks like Shannon didn't get above 5 for max figure today we will have to wait and see if this is confirmed tomorrow.

pauldry

It was 5.7c around 3pm but not confirmed

M.T. Cranium

Shannon tied with Gurteen at 5.7 for the new low max.

Nobody had picked Shannon but Bsal has Gurteen. DOCARCH had the lone 23rd guess. 5.7 is above all guesses, Kindred Spirit and dasa29 had 5.0.

Probably Saturday is the only realistic chance to beat 5.7 now, Friday will have perhaps too mild a start before cold air arrives, but worth keeping an eye on each day in this somewhat cold spell. With the set-up for Saturday Ballyhaise would probably be more likely to contend.

M.T. Cranium

New low max data ... 4.8 at Dublin and Casement (27th). Then Dunsany 4.9 (27th) ... none of these were selected by anyone. If they hold up, Con scores zero and Normal scores 3/4 (Dunsany seems as likely as Ballyhaise).

Your location and other scores depend entirely on the following (as amended after 28th to 30th if necessary) ...

Everyone should score 1 to 4 in each category so these may seem a bit generous at the lower end. The clustering of scores will depend partly on merit rather than just evenly dividing the categories, as there are some big gaps especially in the temperatures selected. Only three qualify for four points for temperature (Tae laidir 4.9, Kindred Spirit and dasa29 both 5.0, and Artane2002 4.2) as there were three next highest forecasts at 3.9 and 3.8. Those go for three points along with a couple at 3.4. ... We had six guesses for 27th so only those will get four points.

Ranks of selected locations for scoring ... 4 pts _ Knock/Gurteen/Mullingar 5.1 (27th), 2 pt _ Ballyhaise 5.2 (27th), 2 pt _ Mountdillon 5.4 (27th), 1 pt _ Markree (5.7), 1 pt _ Newport 6.2 (27th).

Ranks of the temperature value ... 4 pts_ 4.2 to 5.0, .... 3 pts_ 3.2 to 3.9, .... 2 pts_ 2.8 to 3.1, .... 1 pt_ 2.6 or lower.

Ranks of the dates selected ... 27th_ 4 pts, 26th,28th_ 3 pts, 24th,25th,29th,30th_ 2 pts, 19th-23rd_ 1 pt.

______________________________

If any qualifying location improves its rank today or Monday, the location scores may be adjusted. If the lowest value stays in the range of 4.5 to 4.8 then those scores won't change, if it came down below 4.5 some changes might be needed. And that would change the date scores, the 28th has five selections so it would then be 28th at 4 and 27th or 29th at 3, 24th,25th,26th,30th at 2 and 19th-23rd at 1.

Unless these values change, Kindred Spirit leads with 12 points and JPmarn, Tae laidir and Artane2002 have 11.

I can't edit the table of forecasts but the part about Con Sensus scoring 3 for 27th or 28th should have read will score 4 for either 27th or 28th and otherwise same as forecasters who said either of those if not 27th or 28th (which likely won't come into play).

M.T. Cranium

However, looks quite possible that Ballyhaise or Mullingar might fail to reach 4.8 or 5.1 C today, so all of the above may prove to be irrelevant.

appledrop

We now also have Dublin airport at Max of 4.8 on 28th, so that will change your scoring slightly M.T.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, that will elevate the scores of all five who chose 28th to four rather than three. It also changes 29th from 2 to 3 points. Nobody loses any points anyway. ... Meanwhile here's the update after four weeks with projections of final values ...

IMT now 8.2 from 8.16 rounded, and should finish on 8.0 as today and 30th will average around 6 C. The fourth week average was 5.2 which was 2.5 below normal.

MAX 17.7 and MIN -3.1 both appear confirmed now.

PRC is only 36% of normal with this past week at 34%. Some rain in the forecast for late Tuesday but probably not moving this result very much, let's say 40% tops.

SUN now back up to 105% with this past week at 144% (864/600). Rather dull finish to the month so expect this to rest very close to 100%.

The lowest max was 4.8 C at Dublin both 27th and 28th, and Casement 27th. Scoring for the bonus has been discussed in recent posts.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for November 2021

Most of the elements for scoring are available, this will be either confirmed or adjusted on Thursday 2nd from MS values.

(IMT scored from 8.0 which will remain if actual IMT is 8.1 to keep max scores at the current levels, and PRC scored from minimum progression as most likely outcome is near 40%, MAX 17.7, MIN -3.1, SUN 100% and bonus as discussed).

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus __ TOTALS

Jpmarn ____________ 23 _ 13 _ 14 _ 12*_ 08 __ 2 4 4 _____ 80

DOCARCH __________ 18 _ 19 _ 19 _ 07*_ 10 __ 2 2 2 _____ 79

Artane2002 _________ 19 _ 13 _ 09 _ 11*_ 10 __ 4 4 4 _____ 74

Tae laidir ___________ 23 _ 12 _ 15 _ 03*_ 09 __ 4 3 4 _____ 73

Appledrop __________ 21 _ 08 _ 19 _ 05*_ 08 __ 3 4 4 _____ 72

dacogawa __________ 19 _ 12 _ 20 _ 07*_ 07 __ 2 3 2 _____ 72

Dasa29 ____________ 20 _ 03 _ 19 _ 07*_ 09 __ 4 1 4 _____ 67

Joe Public __________ 22 _ 15 _ 09 _ 03*_ 08 __ 3 1 2 _____ 63

Kindred Spirit _______ 22 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09*_ 09 __ 4 4 4 _____ 63

200motels __________ 18 _ 00 _ 16 _ 11*_ 08 __ 2 4 4 _____ 63

Pauldry ____________ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 04*_ 08 __ 1 3 1 _____ 60

___ Normal _________ 17 _ 08 _ 06 _ 08*_ 10 __ 3 4 3 _____ 59

Adam240610 ________18 _ 03 _ 10 _ 11*_ 10 __ 1 1 4 _____ 58

___ Con Sensus _____ 18 _ 03 _ 10 _ 07*_ 10 __ 2 4 4 _____ 58

MrSkinner __________16 _ 04 _ 20 _ 02*_ 10 __ 2 1 1 _____ 56

Mr stonewall ________13 _ 01 _ 14 _ 09*_ 09 __ 2 4 4 _____ 56

john mac ___________18 _ 01 _ 11 _ 05*_ 10 __ 3 4 1 _____ 53

Sunflower3 _________23 _ 02 _ 06 _ 03*_ 08 __ 2 4 4 _____ 52

waterways ___ (-1) __ 18 _ 00 _ 10 _ 05*_ 09 __ 3 4 2 _51-1=50

sryanbruen _________ 17 _ 03 _ 00 _ 11*_ 08 __ 1 3 4 _____ 47

Gonzo _____________13 _ 05 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 __ 1 3 4 _____ 46

M.T. Cranium _______ 19 _ 05 _ 03 _ 04*_ 07 __ 1 4 2 _____ 45

Danno ____________ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 14*_ 04 __ 1 2 2 _____ 41

Bsal ______________ 15 _ 00 _ 01 _ 01*_ 08 __ 2 2 4 _____ 33

BLIZZARD7 __ (-2) __ 03 _ 00 _ 00 _ 05*_ 04 __ 1 4 2 _12-2=10

___________________________________

Congrats to JPmarn and DOCARCH whose high scores will probably survive any slight edits to come.

===============================================

(actual forecasts)

Table of forecasts for November 2021

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max

Jpmarn ____________ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 3.2 27th Knock

Tae laidir ___________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 __ 4.9 30th Knock

Sunflower3 _________ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.1 28th Knock

Joe Public __________ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise

Pauldry ____________ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 092 __ 2.3 30th Markree

Kindred Spirit _______ 7.7 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.0 27th Knock

Appledrop __________ 7.6 _ 16.5 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 092 __ 3.8 28th Knock

Dasa29 ____________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Artane2002 _________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 __ 4.2 28th Knock

M.T. Cranium ________7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 __ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise

dacogawa __________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 085 __ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise

DOCARCH __________ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise

___ Con Sensus _____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.0 (see notes)

Adam240610 ________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 __ 2.3 19th Knock

john mac ___________7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 098 __ 3.9 28th Newport

200motels __________ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 __ 2.6 27th Knock

waterways ___ (-1) ___7.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon

sryanbruen _________ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 2.4 26th Knock

___ Normal _________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 (climatology)

MrSkinner __________7.1 _ 16.1 _ -3.1 _ 131 _ 101 __ 3.1 21st Markree

Bsal ______________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 089 __ 3.0 25th Gurteen

Danno ____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 080 _ 130 __ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise

Gonzo _____________6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 __ 2.1 29th Knock

Mr stonewall ________6.8 _ 15.8 _ -3.7 _ 095 _ 105 __ 2.8 27th Mullingar

BLIZZARD7 __ (-2) __ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 __ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise

___________________________________

For the bonus, con sensus has 3.0 as the median value. The dates chosen will be used to determine the score for con sensus and so will the locations ...

19th _____ 2 ______ Knock ____ 10 (Con scores 3 if correct and 2 if Knock 2nd lowest max)

21st _____ 2 ______ Ballyhaise __ 6 (Con scores 2 if correct)

22nd _____ -- _____ Markree ___ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

23rd _____ 1 ______ Mullingar __ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

24th _____ 1 ______ Gurteen ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

25th _____ 1 ______ Newport ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

26th _____ 1 ______ Mtdillon ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

27th _____ 6 ______ all others __ 0 (Con scores 0 if another location has low max)

28th _____ 5

29th _____ 2

30th _____ 2

(for the dates, Con scores 3 if 27th or 28th correct, 2 if any date with 2 selections and 1 if any with 1

__ (2 for 19th only for 19-20). Con scores zero if low max is any date not chosen.

Normal scores by climatology (later dates favoured, colder locations).

For the forecasters, scoring will be determined by error in the date (if any), and for location, the scoring will be determined by ranking of lowest three maxima (each station gets one chance to set a mark in that) and locations not chosen will be left out of the scoring calculations on that element.

Scoring will be out of 4 for each element which will provide potential for a superbonus of 1 or 2 points however the totals work out. No zero scoring so it will be best six for four, next six for three, next six for two and last five for one point.

Ties may complicate that a bit, we shall find out. (helpfully 6 chose 27th and 6 chose either 26th or 28th which will smooth out the scores).

(In case my two column format there confused anyone, there is no connection between the dates and the locations that appear in the same row, just that the locations were listed by most frequent to least, and the dates from early to late).

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has finished on 8.1 C so consider the scoring to be boosted (it was done from 8.0).

Will check the rest of the data tomorrow and post the annual updates then.

M.T. Cranium

note: the provisional scoring has been confirmed so this table is also now confirmed. The total score for BLIZZARD7 was found to be 19-2 = 17 rather than 12-2 = 10. That change is reflected below. PRC was 47% and SUN was 101%. MAX 17.7 and MIN -3.1. Updated category scoring to follow.

Updated Scoring Jan to Nov 2021

rank (prev) _ FORECASTER__JanFebMar AprMayJun JulAugSep OctNov__TOTAL_best 9/11_rank (prev)

_01_(01) __sunflower3 ____ 76_37_72_66_67_66_74_78_71_64_52__ 723 ___ 634 __ 01 (01)

_04_(t04) __ tae laidir _____67_64_74_39_35_49_64_82_61_66_73__ 674 ___ 600 __ 02 (02)

(02)_(02)___Con Sensus ___65_59_81_67_64_49_59_76_59_63_ 58__ 700 ___ 593 __(03) ((02))

_02_(02)__ Artane2002 ____67_48_87_61_63_43_57_65_49_65_ 74__ 679 ____ 588 __ 03 (04)

_05_(08)__ JPmarn ________63_76_69_64_39_40_49_66_59_60_ 80__ 665 ____ 586 __ 04 (07)

_07_(t04) __ john mac _____62_68_68_34_52_73_57_73_70_44_ 53__ 654 ____ 576 __ 05 (03)

_03_(03)__ Appledrop ______56_75_75_52_74_53_51_51_65_51_ 72__ 675 ____ 573 __ 06 (08)

_08_(07) __ MrSkinner _____58_63_75_70_47_53_58_69_62_39_ 56__ 650 ____ 564 __ 07 (06)

_06_(09) __ DOCARCH _____ 54_50_70_54_54_80_56_66_49_49_79__ 661 ____ 563 __ 08 (13)

t10_(11) __Kindred Spirit ___58_82_67_27_55_48_51_75_41_63_ 63__ 630 ____ 562 __ 09 (09)

_09_(06) __sryanbruen ____ 75_76_47 _69_60_57_38_59_59_58_ 47__ 645 ____ 560 __ 10 (05)

(10)_(10) __ __ NormaL ____59_76_58_48_35_73_56_71_53_51_ 59__ 639 ____ 556 __ (11) ((10))

t10_(10) __ Mr stonewall ___ 65_59_41_68_60_38_60_68_49_66_ 56__ 630 ____ 551 __ 11 (10)

_14_(14)__ Adam240610 ___58_68_54_65_72_31_49_70_32_54_ 58__ 611 ____ 548 __t12 (11)

_13_(12)__ Pauldry ________58_47_72_64_79_43_32_53_39_72_ 60__ 619 ____ 548 __t12 (12)

_12_(15) __ dacogawa _____ 79_60_67_61_50_40_47_44_47_53_ 72__ 620 ____ 536 __ 14 (17)

_17_(16) __ waterways _____55_62_29_41_62_68_71_59_54_44 _50__ 595 ____ 525 __ 15 (15)

_16_(13)__ M.T. Cranium ___ 47_37_65_79_47_65_42_68_53_54_ 45__ 602 ____ 523 __ 16 (14)

_19_(19) __ 200motels _____38_65_47_75_33_63_57_51_62_ --_ 63__ 554 ____ 521 __t17 (18)

_15_(18) __ dasa29 _______ 48_43_65_42_54_56_40_81_51_56_ 67__ 603 ____ 521 __t17 (19)

_18_(17) __ Bsal __________41_50_73_48_62_70_36_60_57_46_ 33__ 576 ____ 507 __ 19 (16)

_20_(20) __Gonzo _________81_20_83_40_74_39_19_46_34_54 _46 __ 536 ____ 497 __ 20 (20)

_21_(21) __ Joe Public _____ 41_42_45_58_30_48_10_64_69_53_ 63__ 523 ____ 483 __ 21 (21)

_22_(22) __ Danno ________38_10_25_65_66_--_74_--_ 62_52 _ 41 __ 433 ____ 433 __ 22 (22)

_23_(23)__ Western Storm __45_81_74_33_40_44_--_72_-- _ -- _ -- ___ 389

_24_(24)__ Cirrus Business __35_53_73_67_72_42_--_-- _-- _-- _ -- ___ 342

_25_(25) __ SleetandSnow __30_41_77_-- _-- _50_70_48_ --_ --_ -- ___ 316

_26_(26) __ eon1208 ______ 53_76_62_58_ --_46_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- ___ 295

_27_(27) __ Esposito _______--_ -- _ --_ --_ --_57_57_54_ --_ --_ -- ___ 168

_28_(28) __ funsterdelux ___ 59_40_62 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- ___ 161

_29_(29) __ sdanseo _______51_ --_52 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- ___ 103

_30_(30) __ Gaoth Laidir ___ --_ -- _ -- _ --_ -- _ -- _ --_58_32_ --_ --____90

_31_(31) __ BLIZZARD7 ____10_21_34_ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --_ 17___ 82

_32_(32) __ Bazlers _______34_ --_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --____34

_33_(33) __ Tazio _________--_26 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_--____26

===========================================================

Sunflower3 still holds a comfortable lead. Although Sunflower3's NOV score only 52, the best 9/11 added the previous excluded score of 64. The only others to drop their NOV score in this scoring total were Con Sensus (used 59 rather than the 58 score) and Bsal (used 41 rather than 33). Everyone else added their NOV score to the best 9 of 11.

M.T. Cranium

Updated category scoring summaries:

Note: these appear in the order of total score, whereas the table above is ranked by best 9/11.

Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)

Max Possible __ 275 220 220 165 110 110+_1100 1100 - - _Max Possible

Sunflower3 ___ 192 132 143 097 080 082 __726 723 003 _Sunflower3

__Con sensus _ 183 142 113 107 083 072 __700 700 000 _Con Sensus

Artane2002 ___ 174 154 109 093 075 074 __679 679 000 _Artane2002

Appledrop ____ 174 113 129 107 069 083 __675 675 000 _Appledrop

Tae laidir _____ 210 110 103 094 081 076 __674 674 000 _Tae laidir

Jpmarn ______ 214 111 123 078 074 066 __666 664 002 _ Jpmarn

DOCARCH ____ 155 169 101 091 088 057 __661 661 000 _DOCARCH

john mac _____ 185 120 102 094 088 066 __655 654 001 _john mac

MrSkinner ____ 199 095 132 082 081 061 __650 650 000 _Mr Skinner

sryanbruen ___ 184 119 091 102 075 074 __645 645 000 _sryanbruen

__ NormaL ____168 131 078 098 086 078 __639 639 000 __NormaL

MrStonewall ___164 104 128 109 067 058 __630 630 000 _MrStonewall

Kindred Spirit __189 100 094 116 073 062 __634 630 004 _Kindred Spirit

Dacogawa ____ 175 120 116 076 074 059 __620 620 000 _Dacogawa

pauldry ______ 173 140 084 075 077 070 __619 619 000 _pauldry

Adam240610 __178 122 114 091 061 057 __623 611 012 _Adam240610

Dasa29 _______175 058 117 109 076 068 __603 603 000 _Dasa29

M.T. Cranium __194 115 076 075 074 058 __602 602 000 _M.T. Cranium

waterways ____196 054 090 093 079 088 __600 595 005 _waterways

Bsal _________ 164 099 074 106 082 054 __579 576 003 _Bsal

200motels ____ 153 085 088 093 070 075 __564 554 010 _200motels (10/11)

Gonzo _______ 152 105 079 083 067 070 __556 536 020 _Gonzo

Joe Public _____166 072 114 091 061 053 __557 523 034 _Joe Public

Danno _______ 106 075 073 098 039 041 __432 433 -001_Danno (9/11)

Western Storm_ 106 052 060 075 053 043 __389 389 000 _WesternStorm (7/11)

CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 __342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness (6/11)

SleetAndSnow _ 085 057 044 044 049 042 __321 316 005 _SleetAndSnow (6/11)

Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 __297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/11)

Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 __168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/11)

Esposito ______ 057 034 029 023 015 010 __168 168 000 _Esposito (3/11)

sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 __108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/11)

Gaoth Laidir ___ 027 010 002 015 019 017 __090 090 000 _Gaoth Laidir (2/11)

BLIZZARD7 ____019 017 000 026 010 011 __083 082 001_BLIZZARD7 (4/11)

Bazlers _______ 019 000 000 005 010 000 __034 034 000 _Bazlers (1/11)

Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 __028 026 002 _Tazio (1/11)

_________________________________________

_______________________________________

Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).

Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.

Three highest totals in each category:

IMT __ JPmarn 214 (77.8%) ____ tae laidir 210 (76.6%) ___ MrSkinner 199 (72.3%)

MAX __ DOCARCH 169 (76.8%) _ Artane2002 154 (70.0%) _ Pauldry 140 (63.6%)

MIN __ Sunflower3 143 (65.0%)_ MrSkinner 132 (60.0%) __ appledrop 129 (58.6%)

PRC __ Kindred Spirit 116 (70.3%)_ dasa29, MrStonewall tied 2nd 109 (66.1%) (appledrop 4th 107)

SUN __ John mac, DOCARCH tied 1st 88 (80.0%) ___ _ bsal 82 (74.5%) (MrSkinner, tae laidir t4 81)

BONUS _ waterways 88 (80.0%)__ appledrop 83 (75.5%) ___ sunflower3 82 (74.5%)

_________________________________________________________-

Con Sensus would rank third for MAX (142 _ 64.5%) (its only top three score)

NormaL would rank third for SUN (86 _ 78.2%) (its only top three score)

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons contest _ Final Report

This is the end of the four seasons contest, the autumn points have been added to the table. Below the table you can find the actual totals of each regular entrant which led to those autumn points awarded.

FORECASTER _____Winter Pts _ Spring pts _ Summer pts _ Autumn pts __TOTAL points

sunflower3 _____________ 1 _________ 5 ______ 10 ________ 5 ________ 21

tae laidir _______________ 3 ________ -- _______ 4 ________10 ________ 17

__ Con Sensus __________(3) ________(7) _____ (3) _______(3) ________(16)

JPmarn ________________ 7 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 7 _________14

dacogawa _____________ 10 ________ 1 ______ -- _________ 1 _________ 12

Pauldry ________________ 1 ________ 10 ______-- _________ 1 _________12

john mac _______________4 ________ -- _______ 7 ________ -- _________11

Appledrop ______________ 1 ________ 4 _______-- _________ 6 _________11

Artane2002 _____________ 1 ________ 6 _______ -- ________ 3 _________10

DOCARCH _____________ -- _________ 1 _______6 _________ 2 _________ 9

Cirrus Business __________ -- ________ 7 _______ -- ________ -- _________7

sryanbruen _____________ 6 ________ -- _______ -- ________ -- _________ 6

waterways _____________ 1 _________-- _______ 5 _________ -- _________6

__ NormaL ____________ (1) ________ -- _______(5) _______(--) ________(6)

Western Storm __________ 5 ________ -- _______ -- ________ -- _________5

MrSkinner ______________ 1 ________ -- _______ 3 ________ -- _________ 4

Joe Public _____________ -- _________ -- _______ -- ________ 4 _________ 4

Adam240610 ___________ 1 ________ 2 ________-- ________ -- _________ 3

Gonzo ________________ -- _________3 ________ -- _______ -- _________ 3

M.T. Cranium __________ -- _________ 2 ________ 1 ________ -- _________3

Mr stonewall ____________ 2 ________ -- ________-- ________ 1 _________3

dasa29 _______________ -- _________ -- ________2 ________ 1 _________ 3

Kindred Spirit __________ -- _________ -- ________1 ________ -- ________ 1

200motels _____________-- _________ -- ________1 ________ -- _________1

Eon1208 _______________ 1 ________ -- ________ -- _______ -- _________ 1

Bsal __________________-- __________1 ________ -- _______ -- _________ 1

Danno ________________-- _________ -- ________ -- ________ -- _________0

__________________________________________________________

Autumn total scores:

Tae laidir ___ 200 ___ 10 pts

JPmarn _____199 ____ 7 pts

appledrop ___188 ____ 6 pts

Sunflower3 __187 ____ 5 pts

Joe Public ___ 185 ____ 4 pts

_Con Sensus _(180) __ (3 pts)

Artane2002 __178 ____ 3 pts

DOCARCH ___177 ____ 2 pts

dasa29 _____ 174 ____ 1 pt

dacogawa ___172 ____ 1 pt

MrStonewall _ 171 ____ 1 pt

Pauldry _____171 ____ 1 pt

john mac and Kindred Spirit 167, sryanbruen 164, NormaL 163, MrSkinner 157, Danno 155,

MTC 152, waterways 148, Adam240610 144, Bsal 136, Gonzo 134, 200motels 126 (2/3)

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Congrats to sunflower3 for winning the four seasons award, tae laidir 2nd and JPmarn 3rd.