November 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for November 2021

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Low max

Jpmarn ____________ 7.8 _ 17.8 _ -2.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 3.2 27th Knock

Tae laidir ___________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -3.6 _ 121 _ 105 __ 4.9 30th Knock

Sunflower3 _________ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -4.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.1 28th Knock

Joe Public __________ 7.7 _ 18.2 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 090 __ 3.4 21st Ballyhaise

Pauldry ____________ 7.7 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 092 __ 2.3 30th Markree

Kindred Spirit _______ 7.7 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.0 27th Knock

Appledrop __________ 7.6 _ 16.5 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 092 __ 3.8 28th Knock

Dasa29 ____________ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 105 __ 5.0 19th Mullingar

Artane2002 _________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 100 __ 4.2 28th Knock

M.T. Cranium ________7.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 118 _ 085 __ 1.9 27th Ballyhaise

dacogawa __________ 7.4 _ 16.9 _ -3.1 _ 105 _ 085 __ 2.6 29th Ballyhaise

DOCARCH __________ 7.3 _ 17.6 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.2 23rd Ballyhaise

___ Con Sensus _____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 105 _ 100 __ 3.0 (see notes)

Adam240610 ________7.3 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 __ 2.3 19th Knock

john mac ___________7.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 098 __ 3.9 28th Newport

200motels __________ 7.3 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 091_ 108 __ 2.6 27th Knock

waterways ___ (-1) ___7.3 _ 14.9 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 28th Mt Dillon

sryanbruen _________ 7.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 2.4 26th Knock

___ Normal _________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 (climatology)

MrSkinner __________7.1 _ 16.1 _ -3.1 _ 131 _ 101 __ 3.1 21st Markree

Bsal ______________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 133 _ 089 __ 3.0 25th Gurteen

Danno ____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -4.7 _ 080 _ 130 __ 2.1 24th Ballyhaise

Gonzo _____________6.8 _ 16.2 _ -7.7 _ 082 _ 115 __ 2.1 29th Knock

Mr stonewall ________6.8 _ 15.8 _ -3.7 _ 095 _ 105 __ 2.8 27th Mullingar

BLIZZARD7 __ (-2) __ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -8.7 _ 110 _ 130 __ 0.7 27th Ballyhaise

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For the bonus, con sensus has 3.0 as the median value. The dates chosen will be used to determine the score for con sensus and so will the locations ...

19th _____ 2 ______ Knock ____ 10 (Con scores 3 if correct and 2 if Knock 2nd lowest max)

21st _____ 2 ______ Ballyhaise __ 6 (Con scores 2 if correct)

22nd _____ -- _____ Markree ___ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

23rd _____ 1 ______ Mullingar __ 2 (Con scores 1 if correct)

24th _____ 1 ______ Gurteen ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

25th _____ 1 ______ Newport ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

26th _____ 1 ______ Mtdillon ___ 1 (Con scores 1 if correct)

27th _____ 6 ______ all others __ 0 (Con scores 0 if another location has low max)

28th _____ 5

29th _____ 2

30th _____ 2

(for the dates, Con scores 3 if 27th or 28th correct, 2 if any date with 2 selections and 1 if any with 1

__ (2 for 19th only for 19-20). Con scores zero if low max is any date not chosen.

Normal scores by climatology (later dates favoured, colder locations).

For the forecasters, scoring will be determined by error in the date (if any), and for location, the scoring will be determined by ranking of lowest three maxima (each station gets one chance to set a mark in that) and locations not chosen will be left out of the scoring calculations on that element.

Scoring will be out of 4 for each element which will provide potential for a superbonus of 1 or 2 points however the totals work out. No zero scoring so it will be best six for four, next six for three, next six for two and last five for one point.

Ties may complicate that a bit, we shall find out. (helpfully 6 chose 27th and 6 chose either 26th or 28th which will smooth out the scores).

(In case my two column format there confused anyone, there is no connection between the dates and the locations that appear in the same row, just that the locations were listed by most frequent to least, and the dates from early to late).

__ good luck to all, and if we have any further entries I will edit them into this table __

After the first week ...

IMT 8.1 just 0.3 below normal.

MAX 15.0 and MIN -0.2

PRC only 24% of normal, east basically dry.

SUN at 139% of normal (832/600).

Lowest max so far only 8.4 C.