wrong thread..still getting lost with no lay out.
Herd immunity is no more than a concept. There is nothing much in the way of hard science or definitive papers out there.
So pick any number or percentage you like. Nobody can prove you wrong.
Both you AND your friend are right OP!
As a related aside there is no meaningful way to measure immunity either. I knew Holohan was dodgy when he declared very early on that "there is no natural immunity to this virus". His recent "people can have confidence in the vaccines" may also come back to bite him this winter.
It's at 87.6% of adults who have had their first dose, not 87.6% of the population. It's 68.2% of the total population who have had one dose, and 53.18% who are fully vaccinated.
What are we at now?
My very rough calc has us at about 46%?
Just under 46% fully vaccinated, and a little over 62% with at least one dose.
Is it 48.9% of the total population fully vaccinated? Based on 4.983mil population
We will get to herd immunity at some stage if the variants don’t morph too much
On July 18th it was 45.72% of the total population fully vaccinated and 62.29% of the total population that had at least one dose.
2,277,860 second doses + 160,609 J&J
2,438,469 fully vaccinated out of a population of 4,982,907 = 48.9%
2,791,631 with Dose 1 + 160,609 J&J
2,952,240 with at least a single jab = 59.2%
Or am I missing something glaring obvious?
Wont mean much if a mutation appears that is vaccine immune. We will be playing catch up with the virus for a while yet I would imagine.
Professor of Virology from UCC was on the radio last week. He said standard multiplier for persons infected is 3 to 5 times actual detected cases. You need to add these to the vaccinated cohort but then take away those who were mosyt likely vaccinated & infected.
So if 250k have trested positive then the real figure is 1 million. Out of those 1 million 55% were also vaccinated so you add 450k to the fully vaccinated figure towards herd immuinity.
Hope that makes some form of sense. Essentially this is what Boris is doing. Instead of forcing the young to get vaccinated he is allowing it to rip through them to achieve herd immuinity. Apparently far cheaper than paying for vaccines & the cost of administration.
Not really. Bear in mind we've only had a handful of these VOCs in the last 15 months. SARS-COV-2 is expected to become more benign over time. Also COVID is no longer new to many of us and it would only be troublesome if we get more hospitalisation from it. Work is ongoing on both new versions of the vaccine and anti-virals to address this virus.
If it was not going to be a problem they wouldnt be trying to win the race to adjust vaccines against COVID, the know it is coming, they are hoping that they win the race. Germans this morning already talking about a third shot being needed by October this year by some people. Additionally, what people have forgotten is, what will happen when we all start living without masks ... the flu etc. will have a field day as our immune systems will not be as fit as without a mask. How many people do you know who had a bad flu in the last 18 months?
Dont get me wrong, I am greatful for the vaccine, also encourage people to get it, however I dont think it is as simple as people think. The only thing we can hope for is that the more people who are vaccinated the less people will be hospitalised. However, the problem with vaccines are that people can still contract the virus and pass it on, meaning people have a false sense of security.
Interesting article. I go back and forth like a yo yo on what I think may happen. The above lays out why herd immunity may not be possible.
If enough people are vaccinated then passing it on to them won't be that much of a problem surely?
Only because the potential speed of the spread of Delta might give us far bigger hospitalisations. So far that's not happening but definitely better to get as many vaccinated as possible to head it off. Really nothing new about booster talk, although a lot of it is from Pfizer! A general feeling is that very high risk groups may need them but no country has set dates or specific plans for it.
Israel is already doing booster shots to those most at risk.
Israel are also only one of two countries doing kids. Who knows whether either is needed but all good news for Pfizer! If we do it, it'll be well into the autumn but more like a flu shot campaign I'd say.
If people keep passing it, it will mutate once again. Mutations will at some point become vaccine immune. The virus will adapt to ensure it survives, so every time it is passed on is a further risk.
Yes but you said no country was doing or set dates for boosters, I was just correcting your statement.
Canada, the US and Israel are at least 3 countries vaccinating kids.
Let's make sure that we've got it all right, shall we?
This article states that experts are of the opinion that even with Delta vaccinated people who are asymptomatic will unlikely spread it.
Their viral low is minimal but symptomatic is probably a different story.
I'm just reading and exploring all the different points of view.
What's your point? You said Israel was one of 2 countries vaccinating kids. I said there's at least 3 countries, which is correct.
After which I shared a link to far more information, i.e. I informed myself. That tends to forego the need to lecture posters but if you feel a gnawing need to do that...
Israel has become a bad example, they have relatively high vaccine coverage but a hardcore group of people who refuse to take the vaccine.
In saying that most informed commentators seem to now be saying herd immunity is no longer possible with Delta, the percentages required are just too high - particularly if the virus can infect vaccinated people (note the vaccine still provides excellent protection against disease).
The best-case scenario now is that enough people get vaccinated that we can reduce this to a measles-like type of virus, one which is circulating at a very low level and causes only the occasional flare-up. If enough people don't get vaccinated, we'll have a much higher prevalence. In order to reduce the risk to the very elderly and immune compromised younger people it's our social duty in my opinion to get vaccinated and do our bit.
Herd immunity is a theory.
There is zero evidence to back up that it is possible to achieve for covid.
Covid isn't going to ever dissapear from the population even if we hit 100% vaccination.
That's really not how it works. Protection from sterilizing immunity will gradually wane due to antigenic drift. This however is a gradual process over time. Even so immune memory should continue to provide protection from severe illness for a very long time. Possibly for life.
As the virus becomes endemic vaccines may require periodic updates and boosters to ensure adequate protection for elderly and immunocompromised but the idea that virus will become immune to the vaccine (as in offer no protection at all) is really not accurate.
Herd immunity is not a theory. The issue is that people seem to think it's a binary situation - it's not. We won't pass a certain % of vaccinations and suddenly there is zero risk.
However, the more people who get vaccinated, the safer it becomes for the unvaccinated and vulnerable people. At some point, the risk to those people becomes manageable and we get back to something resembling normality. That is what herd immunity is. We achieved herd immunity to measles years ago but you still get the odd outbreak.
Covid is never going to disappear, I agree with that - however that doesn't mean we shouldn't do everything we can to reduce its impact.
It very much is a theory with regards to covid.
There is a lot of variation in diseases which makes them susceptible or not to herd immunity.
Covid is going to be much closer to totally unsusceptible to herd immunity than totally controllable by herd immunity.
A classic Covid-19 article.
Experts say, Experts think, Experts believe...
You are way into it before they name one. One guy: some Patterson.
No paper to quote, no smell even of a peer-reviewed study, no cohort even mentioned. Just an opinion by one guy. People read this disinformation in the media and think it is science. It sometimes feels like science and evidence-based medicine died 18 months back.