5% of Covid cases have been fully vaccinated - which is great news in a way!!

FileNotFound

Was on google news this morning and came across the headline below.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0715/1235312-hse-tracker/

Now I know this headline was written to provide a bit of fear mongering but in reality it should do the exact opposite.

Vaccine efficacy has been claimed in the 90+% dependent on vaccine so seeing 5% only would indicate that the vaccine is actually this effective. And then even when you do test positive the chances of negative outcomes are much reduced.

I do hope others view it in the same light. At the same time people disinclined towards vaccination will use this in their favour.

MarkR

It's not that 5% of vaccinated people got the virus, it's that 5% of all detections were in people who had been vaccinated.

Fred Cryton

We also don't know were those 5% hospitalised because of Covid, or are we talking about 89 year olds who would would be in hospital anyway for other reasons who happen to also have Covid despite being fully vaccinated.

NIMAN

I feel figures like this are always released to fit an agenda.

But for some reason they refuse to publish loads of other figures we'd all like to know.

Sleeper12

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618346#Comment_117618346

If it is detected in a vaccinated person then doesn't that mean that they had covid?

Slightly off topic but I heard on Pat Kenny that we've had one fully vaccinated person requiring hospital due to covid. I only mention this to warn vaccinated people like myself to be carefull. Great as the vaccine is don't be fooled into thinking it's 100%

headtheball14

Every time something is published someone smells a conspiracy theory. Out of interest What is not being published you would like to know

Fandymo

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618364#Comment_117618364

Did it give their age? Were they in hospital because of Covid, or were they in with a comorbidity, and tested positive for Covid? They never seem to give this info.

NIMAN

For a long time we just got headlines figures of deaths and case numbers.

But never a breakdown of how old those were dying, had they underlying conditions, were they vaccinated etc.

And I am far from a conspiracy theorist btw, I am fully vaccinated since May, believe every adult should take it, and that a lot of the measures up to a certain point were the right thing to do. I just think how they have handled it in the last month or so has not be right, but thats a different argument.

Last night RTE were creaming themselves over the 1000 new cases. They never want this to end.

Richard Hillman

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618357#Comment_117618357

That dastardly HSE hack. Only seems to affect the numbers that won't make it seem bad. Death figures and average age of people testing positive. Those somehow went AWOL but all the other ones that NPHET like to use are fine.

FileNotFound

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618386#Comment_117618386

Well I have not heard many reports of covid related hospitalisation for vaccinated, think i heard one mentioned on the radio.

But I am sure we will see some, thats probably just going to be a reality. We will even see someone vaccinated people pass from covid I am sure - my assurance based on the fact the vaccines are not 100% effective.

I know it's 5% of tested but since we are testing like mad (think we have one of the highest rates of testing in the EU), it is nice to see that the figure is in line with what was thought.

I agree more and accurate data would be great, but this does seem to indicate vaccine work and also that vaccinated people have to be somewhat careful.

Sleeper12

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618386#Comment_117618386

It was a HSE guy on the program. They had a stay in hospital due to covid. So yes they tested positive for covid. That's all he said on it. No mention of ICU, age or anything like that. I can only assume they made a full recovery. He only mentioned it to show that you should still be carefull when fully vaccinated. For work I'm in 5 to 8 homes per day. I'm amazed at the amount of people that tell me I can remove my mask because everyone in the house is vaccinated. They have no regard about me being vaccinated or not or the possibility of them infecting me. There are a lot of people out there that don't fully understand what the vaccine does & doesn't do. Anyway that's a discussion for another day

Mickeroo

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618422#Comment_117618422

Head of the HSE said none of the 5% were hospitalised yesterday on Matt Cooper.

Former Former Former

The 5% figure came from the head of the HSE testing and tracing service. It does not reflect hospitalisations, it reflects the number of people who have tested positive.

It is very likely that a good proportion of that 5% were not "fully vaccinated" at the time they contracted it. i.e. they were not 7/14 days post their second dose.

Even if that's not the case, these numbers are very encouraging in regard to efficacy.

seamus

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618364#Comment_117618364

It's academic, but the relationship between Sars-Cov-2 and Covid is like the relationship between HIV and AIDS. The virus causes the disease, but the presence of the virus doesn't necessarily mean a person is suffering from the disease.

When we talk about cases or people with covid, we're talking about people who have tested positive for the virus, without any distinction as to whether they have the disease - i.e. whether they have symptoms. It's academic though because asymptomatic people may still be somewhat infectious, and a positive test that is asymptomatic today is not guaranteed to remain asymptomatic.

magicbastarder

are the HSE referring to people as 'vaccinated' only if they're fully vaccinated? i suspect they are; not that it really would change the message/good news.

xabi

95% of infections are in unvaccinated people

take everything

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618422#Comment_117618422

If the figure is 5% then given that the pool of vaccinated people is less than the total population, this would mean the figure in a group of vaccinated people would be higher than 5%. Maybe 7-8% (depending on what the percentage of vaccinated people is).

Edit: I think im wrong about this. Looks like it is indeed 5% risk of contracting Covid given we're at roughly equal percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated now.

take everything

Given that it is "fully" vaccinated as per the thread title, that's actually more worrying tbh.

Seeing that the pool of fully vaccinated people is just over 50% of the population (iirc).

So looks like the risk is closer to 10% of contracting Covid if you're fully vaccinated.

Crap. Not sure why people are touting it as great news tbh.

Edit: having said that, that won't necessarily translate into hospitalisations or deaths. That will be the interesting figure in the coming months.

Edit 2: I'm wrong about the percentage. It does look like 5% chance of contracting Covid since the pools of vaccinated and unvaccinated are equal at this point. Doesn't look like there's a delete option so I'll just leave it.

I wouldn't mind a statistician weighing in here for full clarity. It's not as straightforward as I thought.

Grumpypants

It should read 95% of people getting covid are not vaccinated.

irishgrover

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618747#Comment_117618747

the actual article (as opposed to the OP) states

"She said in the last few days about 5% of cases of Covid-19 involve people who were either fully or partially vaccinated."

lbj666

So vacines that were said to be 95% efficacious in tests at best, are showing to be that way on the ground so far. Shock.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618747#Comment_117618747

As said a million times of these forums , your risk of hospitalisation is significantly reduced if you are vacinated but still contract covid compared if you were not vacinated. They provide a two level reduction in harm, 5% is just the first bit of that.

wes

This is good news, as more people get vaccinated, the risk will reduce further.

take everything

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618747#Comment_117618747

Actually I think I'm wrong about this. It is indeed looking like 5% chance of contracting Covid while vaccinated given the pools of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated are equal at this point.

So I'll probably delete that post. Unless a statistician wants to weigh in.

elefant

magicbastarder

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618772#Comment_117618772

the headline explicitly states fully vaccinated though, so there's going to be confusion there.

Former Former Former

In that article, the 5% figure is quoted from the same person in HSE as referring to fully vaccinated and fully or partially vaccinated people.

If it's the latter, i.e. it includes partially vaccinated, then this is incredibly positive news. If it is only fully vaccinated, then it is merely very good news.

There is no negative way to spin this.

headtheball14

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618387#Comment_117618387

Yes they hid those details from us. Except in the weekly report on deaths published by the HSE on their website that gave those details https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/weeklyreportoncovid-19deathsreportedinireland/

Most of the data was out there if people looked

Geuze

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618387#Comment_117618387

The CSO publish an age breakdown of cases and deaths.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-covid19/covid-19informationhub/health/covid-19deathsandcasesstatistics/

Wolf359f

Normally I'd be cautious, as the fully vaccinated are the older population, they have always been last to reach a peak.

It spreads from younger people into the older groups and so on (sons infecting parents, who infect grandparents etc...)

But from the England data, the past 6 weeks, the 60+ have kept a steady percent, 5% of all cases are in 60+.

Growing in 6 weeks from 4.17% to 5.39%.... it's almost like the 60+ group being vaccinated and mainly mixing among themselves has keep it contained.

Which means NPHET's worst case model expecting pretty much all 60+ to be exposed and at risk of breakthrough infections is nonsense.

quinneerr

You can see the way the wind is blowing, here is what i predict is going to happen around October to November

The vaccines are clearly not anywhere near safe, too many reports are coming out of the adverse effect and deaths due to the vaccines.

The powers that be will never admit this so need some other way to remove the vaccines from the market.

We will see more and more vaccinated people get Covid, remember the PCR test are suspect at best, whatever results the governments want can be obtained by changing the cycles on the test.

The vaccines will be hailed as a great success for standard Covid but not the new variants and will be fully withdrawn.

Powers that be will get away with pushing a dangerous vaccine, making billions of dollars/euro and life will go on as Covid is taken off the news cycle and forgotten about by Christmas.

is_that_so

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117624559#Comment_117624559

Definitely the wrong forum for this! Over here->https://boards.ie/categories/conspiracy-theories

hmmm

The CDC director yesterday said this would be a "pandemic of the unvaccinated". Sure a few people who are vaccinated are going to get into trouble, but it's clear from the statistics that the vaccines are doing a good job at reducing personal risk from Covid. Thankfully we have great uptake in this country, if we can just keep cases down until has had a chance to take a vaccine if they want one we'll be in a great place. After that the anti-vaxxers can have a big Covid party amongst themselves.

Darc19

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618364#Comment_117618364

This itself is scaremongering.

One person hospitalised out of 2.5 million vaccinated.

Basically odds of 2,500,000 to 1.

Darc19

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117624559#Comment_117624559

What a load of utter sh1te.

Join the 5g causes covid shower of fools. You'll meet Gemma O'Doherty and John waters on your way.

Sad that some people are just this stupid.

Sleeper12

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117626538#Comment_117626538

I totally disagree with you. This one case was only mentioned on the radio to show people that the vaccine is not 100% & that vaccinated people should still be careful & not let their guard down. Its not said to imply that the vaccine doesn't work. It works far better than most vaccines. The problem is that some of the vaccinated communities believe that they are 100% protected and are behaving so when there is still a risk of them getting severe or even long term covid.

No one is claiming that the vaccine doesn't work.

TefalBrain

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618357#Comment_117618357

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618357#Comment_117618357

They only release figures and stats that fit the narrative. They have no interest in how irrelevant this virus is now.

*****The new layout on the site is an absolute mess, it's become completely unusable************

323

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618357#Comment_117618357

Well, the OP did mention getting his or her info from google news and irish media.

Darc19

The figures are released alright and all information is out there. However sensationalist and hysterical reporting means that the media have absolutely no interest in giving positive news.

The media twist announcements, they ask pointed questions and publish the answers out of context especially with their wild headlines.

Many people won't read past the sensationalist headlines and then start spreading mis information.

That then gets really really stupid thick eejits to make sinister calls - then the moronic media that put the mis information out create a new story about the "disgrace" of the sinister calls.

They created the basis for the calls in the first place.

Deeper Blue

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117624559#Comment_117624559

Aren't you the poster who said that anti-vaxx loon Alex Berenson was "well worth a follow" on Twitter?

I assumed you were being sarcastic but judging by the above post you must've been serious.

Cop on

Ficheall

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117626538#Comment_117626538

I would love to see your calculations here.

Red Silurian

4 Vaccines in use in Ireland

Astrazeneca - used in 22% of people, efficacy of 59.5%

Pfizer/Bio - Used in 63% of people, efficacy of 95%

Moderna - Used in 8.7% of people, efficacy of 94.1%

J&J - used in 6% of people Efficacy of 66.3% overall

So with all the above figures combined Ireland sees 5% of new cases in the fully vaccinated, therefore an efficacy of 95%

I'm thinking 2 things

1. We have a lot of immunity in our population from previous infections
2. People are catching it but they are not getting sick (because of the vaccines) therefore not presenting to testing centres or their GP

None of this is bad news in my opinion

astrofool

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631621#Comment_117631621

The other bit of maths is that the majority of those vaccinated are also those with older, less effective immune systems vs. the trials which would have had a broad range of ages, as we go younger, the % vaccinated testing positive should drop accordingly.

Red Silurian

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631721#Comment_117631721

They should still test positive if they are PCR tested, even if they are asymptomatic, as far as I am aware the trial participants were regularly PCR tested

But for those who get missed by contact tracers yes your point is correct and pretty much is my second one above