July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

6. BONUS ... What will be the maximum temperature in Ireland on Sunday 11th of July, when I am told there may be some people watching a sporting event on television? (I was going to say Heathrow to blend with the theme, but as this is an Irish contest and perhaps some don't care who wins the Euro 2020, we will make it an all-Ireland final, seven points for the temperature guess, three for the location based on 3 for top (and ties), 2 for second highest (and ties) and 1 for any within 1.0 of the top temp. If several tie for top, 2 points for second highest is still on for the lone or tied second highest values.

Deadline as always 0300h Thurs 1st July, with late penalties thereafter.

Good luck. Here's my punt with NormaL added ...


MTC __________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

NormaL _______ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology

Bsal

Bsal _______ 15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 97 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

sunflower3

Sunflower3__________ 16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 95 _ 90 ___ 21.5 oakpark

pauldry

Pauldry__________ 14.7_ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125_ 90 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

waterways

waterways _______ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 96 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

Gonzo

Gonzo __________ 14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 22.0 Mullingar

esposito

esposito __________ 15.6_ 27.4 _ 4.2_ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

appledrop

Appledrop____15.8___27.2___2.8___90%__83%__21.5 Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.8 ___ 28 ___ 3.0 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 24° Phoenix Park.

John mac

john mac ________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 newport

mrskinner

Skinner_____16.1_____26.8_____3.5_____100_____100_____23° Phoenix

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall____16.1___28.2___2.4___82___115___20.4 Phoenix park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 85 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 72 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

Danno

Danno __________ 18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

adam240610

Adam240610 15.8__26.9__2.2__90__91__21.9 johnstown

Artane2002

Artane2002 _______ 15.6_ 28.1_ 3.8_ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

200motels

200motels. 15.8_ 29.5_ 3.1_ 084 _ 107___ 24.3 Newport

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow __________ 16.2 _ 28.1_ 3.4_ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

appledrop

Welcome July, Max of 24.9 at Oak Park on 1st.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July 2021


FORECASTER __________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 11th loc'n

Danno _______________18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

waterways ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 096 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

SleetAndSnow ________ 16.2 _ 28.1 _ 3.4 _ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

Tae laidir _____________16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

Sunflower3 ___________16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Mr Stonewall _________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.4 _ 082 _ 115 ___ 20.4 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner ____________16.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 Phoenix Park

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 3.1 _ 084 _ 107 ___ 24.3 Newport

Jpmarn ______________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

Kindred Spirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 24.0 Phoenix Park

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 083 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.9 _ 2.2 _ 090 _ 091 ___ 21.9 Johnstown


____ Con Sensus ______ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.1 _ 096 _ 098 ___ 22.0 Oak Park


DOCARCH ____________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

esposito ______________15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

Dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 072 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

john mac _____________15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 Newport

M.T. Cranium __________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park


___ NormaL __________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology


Bsal _________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 097 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

sryanbruen ___________15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ______________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0 Mullingar

Gonzo _______________14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

Pauldry ______________14.7 _ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

_____________________________________________

consensus is the median, 12th ranked forecasts for 23 entrants.

For the max on the 11th, these locations were selected:

Phoenix Park ____ 6 ____ Con sensus gets 3/3 if correct

Oak Park _______ 4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Newport ________4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 3 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Johnstown C ____ 2 ____ Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

Cork, Gurteen, Shannon,
__ Mullingar __ __1 ____Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

any other location _ 0 ___ Con sensus gets zero if this is true.


Your score will be 3 if your guess is the max, 2 if your guess finishes second or third, and 1 if it finishes warmer than the max minus 1.0 or fourth to sixth if they fall outside the range within 1.0 of the max.

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.8 _ 101 _ 110___ 19.9 Phoenix Park

Bit late this month. I don't mind if I get 50 penalty points

Jpmarn

Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .

appledrop

Jpmarn wrote: »

Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .

I think a lot of us overestimated the temperature for Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Well it appears we are back on line. I saved the following data a week ago, an update will appear later today for week two ...

After the first week, IMT was 15.1 (0.1 above normal). The max (which still applies, I think) was 24.9 and the min was 5.1. PRC was 203% of normal and SUN was 56% of normal. We'll see how those are looking after a second week (check back this evening).

As to the bonus, the warmest temperature on the 11th was 21.2 C at Athenry, a location nobody guessed.

The second warmest location was Gurteen (20.5). The one guess for that location gets three points.

The third and fourth warmest locations were Finner and Mountdillon (19.7), only Mountdillon was a contest choice and the three who selected it get two points.

Shannon (19.6) and Markree (19.5) were next warmest and that gives one point for Shannon (no guesses for Markree).

I gave NormaL one point for this distribution and Con Sensus by the rules gets zero.

As to the temperature guesses and points awarded, that goes as follows (added some superbonus for the best guesses as location points were very few and far between):

21.2 Sleet and Snow __ 7 + 2 super bonus = 9

21.1 waterways ______ 7 + 1 super bonus = 8

21.5 sunflower3, appledrop, MTC _ 7 pts

21.7 tae laidir ________________ 6 pts

21.9 sryanbruen, Adam240610 __ 6 pts

20.5 johnmac ________________ 6 pts (equal error to 21.9)

22.0 Con, NormaL, dasa29 ______6 pts (NormaL adds 1 for loc'n)

20.4 MrStonewall _____________ 6 pts (equal error to 22.0)

22.4 pauldry _________________5 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 7 pts

22.5 Artane2002 _____________ 5 pts

19.9 Joe Public ______________ 5 pts (equal error to 22.5)

23.0 MrSkinner ______________ 4 pts

19.2 Gonzo _________________ 4 pts

23.5 JPmarn ________________ 3 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 5 pts

23.6 DOCARCH ______________ 3 pts

23.8 Esposito ________________3 pts (+1 pt loc'n Shannon) = 4 pts

24.0 Bsal ___________________ 2 pts (+3 pts loc'n Gurteen) = 5 pts

24.0 Kindred Spirit ___________ 2 pts

24.2 dacogawa ______________ 2 pts

24.3 200motels ______________ 2 pts

24.7 Danno __________________1 pt (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 3 pts

Posting this now, the new format is a bit quick to cut off your posting time but it preserves your work (I just found), not sure if there's going to be an edit function, if not, my work will need to be done with that in mind as I frequently post and edit within the first two days.

dacogawa

Thanks for the update M.T.

I can't see the "Thanks" button so I'll just share on Twitter instead 🤣 At least we have new emoticons ⛈️🌪️🌬️🌀 The weather threads will look a bit different from now on I suspect...

Update: The "Like" was just added.

appledrop

Thanks for update M.T. Thankfully I was near with temperature guess as I was way out with location!

It was a bit of mad day in terms of regular warm stations like Oak Park + Phoneix Park ended up being ones with lower temperatures that day. 🌡

Fair play to Bsal for guessing Gurteen.😁

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now 15.6, second week average was 16.1 (0.7 above normal). A steady climb appears to be underway.

MAX still 24.9, MIN 5.1 ... MAX edged up to 25.0 after today, and will likely go higher in coming days. (edit 27 C at Mountdillon on 16th, reports will clarify the new max later).

PRC now 137% with the second week rather dry although variable, average 70%.

SUN has had a dismal performance so far, down to 49% of normal, with the second week only 42%.

M.T. Cranium

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117589896#Comment_117589896

I didn't notice this late forecast until we got a few days into that shutdown, and at that point I think I took note of the time on 4th but let's say that the score will be reduced to the minimum score of 10 or by 50, the actual late penalty by early 4th is actually 45 but in any case it appears likely that your score might be around 60 minus that late penalty, sorry I can't come up with anything better but I have to apply the rules as written. The overall effect will be a missed month in terms of the best 10 of 12 at the end of play, and you were not in the top half of the total score contest.

With the bonus already scored, a perfect forecast otherwise would add up to 95 but the way the IMT is going, that looks like being a low score too, most of the other guesses we'll have to wait and see, all of them are possibly good or not so good.

This late forecast will make a slight difference to the values for Con Sensus which I cannot edit in the table as shown, but those will be very slight differences from 12th ranked to average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts. While I'm at it, these would be as follows:

Con Sensus (adjusted) ___ 15.7 _ 27.9 _ 3.1 _ 099 _ 099 __ 22.0

appledrop

Well we have a new Max today of 27.5 degrees at Mt. Dillion. Scorcher!!!!

Watch this space we may get to 28 over the weekend🏖🌡

M.T. Cranium

That is within 17 degrees of my highest temperature this summer. Wish I were kidding.

dacogawa

29.3c in Athenry today, highest temp of the year so far.

Outside the competition, across the boarder the record was broken with Ballywatticock Co. Down recording 31.2c

appledrop

31.2 degrees in Co. Down, unbelievable🌡⛱

I know we are Republic for official stats but still looks like we will record temperature max of 29 degrees today.

It's great the way for once everywhere in country seems to be benefiting from the scorcher!

Enjoy!🍹🏖

appledrop

Met Eireann said on twitter that it hit 29.5 at Athenry today.

Still 26 degrees at some stations at 9pm, never heard the likes of it in Ireland!

Edited- 29.5 is officially confirmed by Met Eireann. Definitely one of best days I ever remember in Ireland.

Joe Public

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618070#Comment_117618070

No problem MTC, as long as I don't carry some of the penalties into next month 🙂

M.T. Cranium

Danno had a premonition this heat was coming, I don't know if he can quite make his numbers but the MAX scoring will definitely need some help, and the IMT will be into the high 16s quite soon at this rate.

200motels has 29.5 so if that holds up the boost will be reduced. We could also get into a zone where the IMT will need a boost, as there's a big gap between 18.1 and 16.4 in the forecast table.

Must admit, I was thinking August for any real heat this summer, just seemed to be heading the other way after June started that slide down, and the odds favored August looking at past Junes that did that sort of thing.

appledrop

Fair play Danno, I will admit that when I seen your prediction I was wondering where you were going with that temperature in Ireland, but looks like you will be right + rest of us wrong!

appledrop

And finally we break the 30 degrees!

30.1 recorded by Met Eireann on twitter at Mt Dillion.

This heatwave is unbelievable☀️🏖

Scorchio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited Met Eireann now saying it reached 30.8 at Mt. Dillion later on.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks,

IMT has soared to 17.3, the third week average was 20.6 which was 4.9 above normal.

MAX 30.8 and MIN 5.1

PRC has dropped to 95% of normal, the third week was basically bone dry with an average of just 1% of normal.

SUN has soared to 113% (from previous 49%) with a remarkable third week average of 242% (1453/600).

The IMT yesterday was 21.6. With the forecast cooler conditions next week, it looks to me like the final IMT may be around 17.0. Despite this very sunny third week the monthly SUN may not finish much above normal, and PRC seems likely to resume a wetter pace too. Quite a contrast between the first half and this past week anyway.

appledrop

If we don't get a lower min we will all be way out apart from Danno again.

Danno have you a crystal ball for July's weather?🔮🪄

As you have all probably worked out I love the new icons. Sorry for those who don't like them but I just hate the new boards layout.

I'll never leave my weather forums though, so the icons brighten up the dreay whiteness.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has continued to rise and reached 17.7 C after Saturday with 17.8 the estimate through Sunday 25th. It seems likely to drop about 0.1 a day from now on, possibly 0.2 by later in the week, and should end up close to 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

The IMT is 17.5 with the fourth week average 18.1 which was 2.4 above normal. This will likely end up around 17.3.

MAX 30.8 and MIN 5.1

PRC was at 90% with the fourth week at 75% of normal. This may end up closer to 95% after tonight's somewhat limited heavy rainfall comes and goes.

SUN now at 127% added considerably more with a sunny fourth week too at 167% (1002/600). Likely to finish around 125%.

Will post August contest some time Friday.

appledrop

Thanks M T, maybe we could P M any of the regulars this month that don't post for August within time frame.

I'm just conscious that new boards might not be as easy to navigate + some people might forget or can't find August contest.

I hope we haven't lost anyone!

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on 17.3

PRC ended up at 95%.

SUN is estimated now at 120% as the last three days fell below 50%.

I may try a provisional scoring effort later today or Monday, but the MS won't appear until Wed 4th due to the bank holiday, so any final scoring and annual update would need to wait for that confirmation.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for July 2021

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

Danno _______________24 _ 14 _ 20 _ 13 _ 00 ___ 3 ______ 74

Sunflower3 ___________20 _ 16 _ 12 _ 15 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 74

waterways ___________ 23 _ 16 _ 01 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 8 ______ 71

SleetAndSnow ________ 21 _ 13 _ 06 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 9 ______ 70

Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 6 ______ 64

Mr Stonewall _________ 20 _ 14 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 6 ______ 60

____ Con Sensus ______ 17 _ 12 _ 03 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 59

MrSkinner ____________20 _ 08 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 ______ 58

Artane2002 ___________15 _ 13 _ 10 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 5 ______ 57

john mac _____________14 _ 15 _ 04 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 57

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 17 _ 19 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 2 _ 59-2 = 57

esposito ______________15 _ 11 _ 14 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 4 ______ 57

DOCARCH ____________ 15 _ 15 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 3 ______ 56

___ NormaL __________ 12 _ 11 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 7 ______ 56

Kindred Spirit _________ 17 _ 12 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 ______ 51

Appledrop ____________ 17 _ 10 _ 01 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 7 ______ 51

Adam240610 __________17 _ 09 _ 00 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 6 ______ 49

Jpmarn ______________ 17 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 5 ______ 49

Dacogawa ____________ 14 _ 16 _ 01 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 2 ______ 47

M.T. Cranium __________12 _ 11 _ 01 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 42

Dasa29 ______________ 09 _ 00 _ 02 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 6 ______ 40

sryanbruen ___________ 09 _ 09 _ 03 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 6 ______ 38

Bsal _________________11 _ 01 _ 02 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 5 ______ 36

Pauldry ______________ 06 _ 06 _ 04 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 32

Gonzo _______________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 04 _ 02 ___ 4 ______ 19

Joe Public ____________ 10 _ 05 _ 01 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 __ 42 = 10

_____________________________________________

So these scores will need to be reviewed once I get the MS final values and have a chance to double check, as I am fighting some very low energy levels that I think are the result of the foul air quality around here (very smoky day after day, also hot and humid). If you do spot an error let me know. The score for Joe Public is the minimum of 10, as the late penalty was probably larger than the score. I basically scored the IMT off 16.6 rather than 17.3, except that Danno was 0.1 closer than the pack so he got one more point there. The MAX was scored by minimum progression with some modification to allow for large gaps between forecasts. The MIN was scored from 4.8 rather than 5.1 to create a minor boost, and those who were at zero but not below zero got one point. The PRC and SUN scores could be done normally. Bonus scoring was explained back around the 12th.

I will update this and then the annual scoring on Wednesday (I hope) as the MS won't appear today due to the holiday Monday.

Haven't forgotten about the August contest, will be wading into that mess to figure out who may still need a word about my unclear bonus question, I did notifce yesterday that most had responded and provided a daily scale forecast. If you read this and have no idea what's up, go in and have a look at the comments about the bonus including mine towards the end.

appledrop

Well done Danno + Sunflower3 you share the 🥇this month just like the high jumpers at the Olympics. BRAVO 👏.

Tae laidir

Thanks MT.

Doesn't sound like a nice environment.

Hope you get some heavy rain to put out the fires.