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July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-06-2021 7:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. BONUS ... What will be the maximum temperature in Ireland on Sunday 11th of July, when I am told there may be some people watching a sporting event on television? (I was going to say Heathrow to blend with the theme, but as this is an Irish contest and perhaps some don't care who wins the Euro 2020, we will make it an all-Ireland final, seven points for the temperature guess, three for the location based on 3 for top (and ties), 2 for second highest (and ties) and 1 for any within 1.0 of the top temp. If several tie for top, 2 points for second highest is still on for the lone or tied second highest values.

    Deadline as always 0300h Thurs 1st July, with late penalties thereafter.

    Good luck. Here's my punt with NormaL added ...


    MTC __________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

    NormaL _______ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 97 ___ 24.0 Gurteen


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,116 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3__________ 16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 95 _ 90 ___ 21.5 oakpark


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__________ 14.7_ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125_ 90 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 96 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo __________ 14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 22.0 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 958 ✭✭✭ esposito


    esposito __________ 15.6_ 27.4 _ 4.2_ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop____15.8___27.2___2.8___90%__83%__21.5 Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.8 ___ 28 ___ 3.0 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 24° Phoenix Park.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____16.1_____26.8_____3.5_____100_____100_____23° Phoenix


  • Registered Users Posts: 753 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall____16.1___28.2___2.4___82___115___20.4 Phoenix park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 85 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 72 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno __________ 18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 15.8__26.9__2.2__90__91__21.9 johnstown


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _______ 15.6_ 28.1_ 3.8_ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels. 15.8_ 29.5_ 3.1_ 084 _ 107___ 24.3 Newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow __________ 16.2 _ 28.1_ 3.4_ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Welcome July, Max of 24.9 at Oak Park on 1st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,212 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for July 2021


    FORECASTER __________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 11th loc'n

    Danno _______________18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

    waterways ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 096 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

    SleetAndSnow ________ 16.2 _ 28.1 _ 3.4 _ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

    Tae laidir _____________16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

    Sunflower3 ___________16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

    Mr Stonewall _________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.4 _ 082 _ 115 ___ 20.4 Phoenix Park

    MrSkinner ____________16.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 Phoenix Park

    200motels ____ (-2) ___ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 3.1 _ 084 _ 107 ___ 24.3 Newport

    Jpmarn ______________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

    Kindred Spirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 24.0 Phoenix Park

    Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 083 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

    Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.9 _ 2.2 _ 090 _ 091 ___ 21.9 Johnstown


    ____ Con Sensus ______ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.1 _ 096 _ 098 ___ 22.0 Oak Park


    DOCARCH ____________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

    Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

    esposito ______________15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

    Dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 072 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

    john mac _____________15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 Newport

    M.T. Cranium __________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park


    ___ NormaL __________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology


    Bsal _________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 097 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

    sryanbruen ___________15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

    Dasa29 ______________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0 Mullingar

    Gonzo _______________14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

    Pauldry ______________14.7 _ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

    _____________________________________________

    consensus is the median, 12th ranked forecasts for 23 entrants.

    For the max on the 11th, these locations were selected:

    Phoenix Park ____ 6 ____ Con sensus gets 3/3 if correct

    Oak Park _______ 4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

    Newport ________4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

    Mount Dillon ____ 3 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

    Johnstown C ____ 2 ____ Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

    Cork, Gurteen, Shannon,
    __ Mullingar __ __1 ____Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

    any other location _ 0 ___ Con sensus gets zero if this is true.


    Your score will be 3 if your guess is the max, 2 if your guess finishes second or third, and 1 if it finishes warmer than the max minus 1.0 or fourth to sixth if they fall outside the range within 1.0 of the max.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.8 _ 101 _ 110___ 19.9 Phoenix Park

    Bit late this month. I don't mind if I get 50 penalty points :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .

    I think a lot of us overestimated the temperature for Sunday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Thanks for the update M.T.

    I can't see the "Thanks" button so I'll just share on Twitter instead 🤣 At least we have new emoticons ⛈️🌪️🌬️🌀 The weather threads will look a bit different from now on I suspect...

    Update: The "Like" was just added.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Thanks for update M.T. Thankfully I was near with temperature guess as I was way out with location!

    It was a bit of mad day in terms of regular warm stations like Oak Park + Phoneix Park ended up being ones with lower temperatures that day. 🌡

    Fair play to Bsal for guessing Gurteen.😁



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