July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

6. BONUS ... What will be the maximum temperature in Ireland on Sunday 11th of July, when I am told there may be some people watching a sporting event on television? (I was going to say Heathrow to blend with the theme, but as this is an Irish contest and perhaps some don't care who wins the Euro 2020, we will make it an all-Ireland final, seven points for the temperature guess, three for the location based on 3 for top (and ties), 2 for second highest (and ties) and 1 for any within 1.0 of the top temp. If several tie for top, 2 points for second highest is still on for the lone or tied second highest values.

Deadline as always 0300h Thurs 1st July, with late penalties thereafter.

Good luck. Here's my punt with NormaL added ...


MTC __________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

NormaL _______ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology

Bsal

Bsal _______ 15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 97 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

sunflower3

Sunflower3__________ 16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 95 _ 90 ___ 21.5 oakpark

pauldry

Pauldry__________ 14.7_ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125_ 90 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

waterways

waterways _______ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 96 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

Gonzo

Gonzo __________ 14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 22.0 Mullingar

esposito

esposito __________ 15.6_ 27.4 _ 4.2_ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

appledrop

Appledrop____15.8___27.2___2.8___90%__83%__21.5 Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.8 ___ 28 ___ 3.0 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 24° Phoenix Park.

John mac

john mac ________ 15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 newport

mrskinner

Skinner_____16.1_____26.8_____3.5_____100_____100_____23° Phoenix

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall____16.1___28.2___2.4___82___115___20.4 Phoenix park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 85 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 72 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

Danno

Danno __________ 18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

adam240610

Adam240610 15.8__26.9__2.2__90__91__21.9 johnstown

Artane2002

Artane2002 _______ 15.6_ 28.1_ 3.8_ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

200motels

200motels. 15.8_ 29.5_ 3.1_ 084 _ 107___ 24.3 Newport

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow __________ 16.2 _ 28.1_ 3.4_ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

appledrop

Welcome July, Max of 24.9 at Oak Park on 1st.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July 2021


FORECASTER __________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 11th loc'n

Danno _______________18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

waterways ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 096 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

SleetAndSnow ________ 16.2 _ 28.1 _ 3.4 _ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

Tae laidir _____________16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

Sunflower3 ___________16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Mr Stonewall _________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.4 _ 082 _ 115 ___ 20.4 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner ____________16.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 Phoenix Park

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 3.1 _ 084 _ 107 ___ 24.3 Newport

Jpmarn ______________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

Kindred Spirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 24.0 Phoenix Park

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 083 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.9 _ 2.2 _ 090 _ 091 ___ 21.9 Johnstown


____ Con Sensus ______ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.1 _ 096 _ 098 ___ 22.0 Oak Park


DOCARCH ____________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

esposito ______________15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

Dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 072 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

john mac _____________15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 Newport

M.T. Cranium __________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park


___ NormaL __________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology


Bsal _________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 097 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

sryanbruen ___________15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ______________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0 Mullingar

Gonzo _______________14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

Pauldry ______________14.7 _ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

_____________________________________________

consensus is the median, 12th ranked forecasts for 23 entrants.

For the max on the 11th, these locations were selected:

Phoenix Park ____ 6 ____ Con sensus gets 3/3 if correct

Oak Park _______ 4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Newport ________4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 3 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Johnstown C ____ 2 ____ Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

Cork, Gurteen, Shannon,
__ Mullingar __ __1 ____Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

any other location _ 0 ___ Con sensus gets zero if this is true.


Your score will be 3 if your guess is the max, 2 if your guess finishes second or third, and 1 if it finishes warmer than the max minus 1.0 or fourth to sixth if they fall outside the range within 1.0 of the max.

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.8 _ 101 _ 110___ 19.9 Phoenix Park

Bit late this month. I don't mind if I get 50 penalty points

Jpmarn

Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .

appledrop

Jpmarn wrote: »

Bonus question forecast it looks like 18.5 Oak Park on Sunday 11th. Based on gfs model on netweather.tv .

I think a lot of us overestimated the temperature for Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Well it appears we are back on line. I saved the following data a week ago, an update will appear later today for week two ...

After the first week, IMT was 15.1 (0.1 above normal). The max (which still applies, I think) was 24.9 and the min was 5.1. PRC was 203% of normal and SUN was 56% of normal. We'll see how those are looking after a second week (check back this evening).

As to the bonus, the warmest temperature on the 11th was 21.2 C at Athenry, a location nobody guessed.

The second warmest location was Gurteen (20.5). The one guess for that location gets three points.

The third and fourth warmest locations were Finner and Mountdillon (19.7), only Mountdillon was a contest choice and the three who selected it get two points.

Shannon (19.6) and Markree (19.5) were next warmest and that gives one point for Shannon (no guesses for Markree).

I gave NormaL one point for this distribution and Con Sensus by the rules gets zero.

As to the temperature guesses and points awarded, that goes as follows (added some superbonus for the best guesses as location points were very few and far between):

21.2 Sleet and Snow __ 7 + 2 super bonus = 9

21.1 waterways ______ 7 + 1 super bonus = 8

21.5 sunflower3, appledrop, MTC _ 7 pts

21.7 tae laidir ________________ 6 pts

21.9 sryanbruen, Adam240610 __ 6 pts

20.5 johnmac ________________ 6 pts (equal error to 21.9)

22.0 Con, NormaL, dasa29 ______6 pts (NormaL adds 1 for loc'n)

20.4 MrStonewall _____________ 6 pts (equal error to 22.0)

22.4 pauldry _________________5 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 7 pts

22.5 Artane2002 _____________ 5 pts

19.9 Joe Public ______________ 5 pts (equal error to 22.5)

23.0 MrSkinner ______________ 4 pts

19.2 Gonzo _________________ 4 pts

23.5 JPmarn ________________ 3 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 5 pts

23.6 DOCARCH ______________ 3 pts

23.8 Esposito ________________3 pts (+1 pt loc'n Shannon) = 4 pts

24.0 Bsal ___________________ 2 pts (+3 pts loc'n Gurteen) = 5 pts

24.0 Kindred Spirit ___________ 2 pts

24.2 dacogawa ______________ 2 pts

24.3 200motels ______________ 2 pts

24.7 Danno __________________1 pt (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 3 pts

Posting this now, the new format is a bit quick to cut off your posting time but it preserves your work (I just found), not sure if there's going to be an edit function, if not, my work will need to be done with that in mind as I frequently post and edit within the first two days.

dacogawa

Thanks for the update M.T.

I can't see the "Thanks" button so I'll just share on Twitter instead 🤣 At least we have new emoticons ⛈️🌪️🌬️🌀 The weather threads will look a bit different from now on I suspect...

Update: The "Like" was just added.

appledrop

Thanks for update M.T. Thankfully I was near with temperature guess as I was way out with location!

It was a bit of mad day in terms of regular warm stations like Oak Park + Phoneix Park ended up being ones with lower temperatures that day. 🌡

Fair play to Bsal for guessing Gurteen.😁