July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for July 2021


FORECASTER __________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 11th loc'n

Danno _______________18.1 _ 33.1 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 175 ___ 24.7 Mt Dillon

waterways ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 2.9 _ 096 _ 108 ___ 21.1 Cork

SleetAndSnow ________ 16.2 _ 28.1 _ 3.4 _ 083 _ 119 ___ 21.2 Newport

Tae laidir _____________16.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 105 ___ 21.7 Johnstown

Sunflower3 ___________16.1 _ 28.6 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Mr Stonewall _________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.4 _ 082 _ 115 ___ 20.4 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner ____________16.1 _ 26.8 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 Phoenix Park

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 15.8 _ 29.5 _ 3.1 _ 084 _ 107 ___ 24.3 Newport

Jpmarn ______________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 23.5 Mt Dillon

Kindred Spirit _________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 24.0 Phoenix Park

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 083 ___ 21.5 Oak Park

Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.9 _ 2.2 _ 090 _ 091 ___ 21.9 Johnstown


____ Con Sensus ______ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.1 _ 096 _ 098 ___ 22.0 Oak Park


DOCARCH ____________ 15.6 _ 28.3 _ 3.1 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 23.6 Newport

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.5 Oak Park

esposito ______________15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 23.8 Shannon

Dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 28.6 _ 2.8 _ 072 _ 105 ___ 24.2 Phoenix Park

john mac _____________15.5 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.5 Newport

M.T. Cranium __________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 21.5 Oak Park


___ NormaL __________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 loc'n by climatology


Bsal _________________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 097 ___ 24.0 Gurteen

sryanbruen ___________15.0 _ 26.9 _ 3.1 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 21.9 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ______________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0 Mullingar

Gonzo _______________14.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.3 _ 128 _ 078 ___ 19.2 Phoenix Park

Pauldry ______________14.7 _ 26.6 _ 3.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22.4 Mt Dillon

_____________________________________________

consensus is the median, 12th ranked forecasts for 23 entrants.

For the max on the 11th, these locations were selected:

Phoenix Park ____ 6 ____ Con sensus gets 3/3 if correct

Oak Park _______ 4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Newport ________4 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 3 ____ Con sensus gets 2/3 if correct

Johnstown C ____ 2 ____ Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

Cork, Gurteen, Shannon,
__ Mullingar __ __1 ____Con sensus gets 1/3 if correct

any other location _ 0 ___ Con sensus gets zero if this is true.


Your score will be 3 if your guess is the max, 2 if your guess finishes second or third, and 1 if it finishes warmer than the max minus 1.0 or fourth to sixth if they fall outside the range within 1.0 of the max.

Well it appears we are back on line. I saved the following data a week ago, an update will appear later today for week two ...

After the first week, IMT was 15.1 (0.1 above normal). The max (which still applies, I think) was 24.9 and the min was 5.1. PRC was 203% of normal and SUN was 56% of normal. We'll see how those are looking after a second week (check back this evening).

As to the bonus, the warmest temperature on the 11th was 21.2 C at Athenry, a location nobody guessed.

The second warmest location was Gurteen (20.5). The one guess for that location gets three points.

The third and fourth warmest locations were Finner and Mountdillon (19.7), only Mountdillon was a contest choice and the three who selected it get two points.

Shannon (19.6) and Markree (19.5) were next warmest and that gives one point for Shannon (no guesses for Markree).

I gave NormaL one point for this distribution and Con Sensus by the rules gets zero.

As to the temperature guesses and points awarded, that goes as follows (added some superbonus for the best guesses as location points were very few and far between):

21.2 Sleet and Snow __ 7 + 2 super bonus = 9

21.1 waterways ______ 7 + 1 super bonus = 8

21.5 sunflower3, appledrop, MTC _ 7 pts

21.7 tae laidir ________________ 6 pts

21.9 sryanbruen, Adam240610 __ 6 pts

20.5 johnmac ________________ 6 pts (equal error to 21.9)

22.0 Con, NormaL, dasa29 ______6 pts (NormaL adds 1 for loc'n)

20.4 MrStonewall _____________ 6 pts (equal error to 22.0)

22.4 pauldry _________________5 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 7 pts

22.5 Artane2002 _____________ 5 pts

19.9 Joe Public ______________ 5 pts (equal error to 22.5)

23.0 MrSkinner ______________ 4 pts

19.2 Gonzo _________________ 4 pts

23.5 JPmarn ________________ 3 pts (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 5 pts

23.6 DOCARCH ______________ 3 pts

23.8 Esposito ________________3 pts (+1 pt loc'n Shannon) = 4 pts

24.0 Bsal ___________________ 2 pts (+3 pts loc'n Gurteen) = 5 pts

24.0 Kindred Spirit ___________ 2 pts

24.2 dacogawa ______________ 2 pts

24.3 200motels ______________ 2 pts

24.7 Danno __________________1 pt (+2 pts loc'n Mtdillon) = 3 pts

Posting this now, the new format is a bit quick to cut off your posting time but it preserves your work (I just found), not sure if there's going to be an edit function, if not, my work will need to be done with that in mind as I frequently post and edit within the first two days.

I didn't notice this late forecast until we got a few days into that shutdown, and at that point I think I took note of the time on 4th but let's say that the score will be reduced to the minimum score of 10 or by 50, the actual late penalty by early 4th is actually 45 but in any case it appears likely that your score might be around 60 minus that late penalty, sorry I can't come up with anything better but I have to apply the rules as written. The overall effect will be a missed month in terms of the best 10 of 12 at the end of play, and you were not in the top half of the total score contest.

With the bonus already scored, a perfect forecast otherwise would add up to 95 but the way the IMT is going, that looks like being a low score too, most of the other guesses we'll have to wait and see, all of them are possibly good or not so good.

This late forecast will make a slight difference to the values for Con Sensus which I cannot edit in the table as shown, but those will be very slight differences from 12th ranked to average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts. While I'm at it, these would be as follows:

Con Sensus (adjusted) ___ 15.7 _ 27.9 _ 3.1 _ 099 _ 099 __ 22.0

That is within 17 degrees of my highest temperature this summer. Wish I were kidding.

After three weeks,

IMT has soared to 17.3, the third week average was 20.6 which was 4.9 above normal.

MAX 30.8 and MIN 5.1

PRC has dropped to 95% of normal, the third week was basically bone dry with an average of just 1% of normal.

SUN has soared to 113% (from previous 49%) with a remarkable third week average of 242% (1453/600).

The IMT yesterday was 21.6. With the forecast cooler conditions next week, it looks to me like the final IMT may be around 17.0. Despite this very sunny third week the monthly SUN may not finish much above normal, and PRC seems likely to resume a wetter pace too. Quite a contrast between the first half and this past week anyway.

The IMT has continued to rise and reached 17.7 C after Saturday with 17.8 the estimate through Sunday 25th. It seems likely to drop about 0.1 a day from now on, possibly 0.2 by later in the week, and should end up close to 17 C.

Provisional scoring for July 2021

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

Danno _______________24 _ 14 _ 20 _ 13 _ 00 ___ 3 ______ 74

Sunflower3 ___________20 _ 16 _ 12 _ 15 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 74

waterways ___________ 23 _ 16 _ 01 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 8 ______ 71

SleetAndSnow ________ 21 _ 13 _ 06 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 9 ______ 70

Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 6 ______ 64

Mr Stonewall _________ 20 _ 14 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 6 ______ 60

____ Con Sensus ______ 17 _ 12 _ 03 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 59

MrSkinner ____________20 _ 08 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 ______ 58

Artane2002 ___________15 _ 13 _ 10 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 5 ______ 57

john mac _____________14 _ 15 _ 04 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 57

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 17 _ 19 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 2 _ 59-2 = 57

esposito ______________15 _ 11 _ 14 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 4 ______ 57

DOCARCH ____________ 15 _ 15 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 3 ______ 56

___ NormaL __________ 12 _ 11 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 7 ______ 56

Kindred Spirit _________ 17 _ 12 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 ______ 51

Appledrop ____________ 17 _ 10 _ 01 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 7 ______ 51

Adam240610 __________17 _ 09 _ 00 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 6 ______ 49

Jpmarn ______________ 17 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 5 ______ 49

Dacogawa ____________ 14 _ 16 _ 01 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 2 ______ 47

M.T. Cranium __________12 _ 11 _ 01 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 42

Dasa29 ______________ 09 _ 00 _ 02 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 6 ______ 40

sryanbruen ___________ 09 _ 09 _ 03 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 6 ______ 38

Bsal _________________11 _ 01 _ 02 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 5 ______ 36

Pauldry ______________ 06 _ 06 _ 04 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 32

Gonzo _______________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 04 _ 02 ___ 4 ______ 19

Joe Public ____________ 10 _ 05 _ 01 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 __ 42 = 10

_____________________________________________

So these scores will need to be reviewed once I get the MS final values and have a chance to double check, as I am fighting some very low energy levels that I think are the result of the foul air quality around here (very smoky day after day, also hot and humid). If you do spot an error let me know. The score for Joe Public is the minimum of 10, as the late penalty was probably larger than the score. I basically scored the IMT off 16.6 rather than 17.3, except that Danno was 0.1 closer than the pack so he got one more point there. The MAX was scored by minimum progression with some modification to allow for large gaps between forecasts. The MIN was scored from 4.8 rather than 5.1 to create a minor boost, and those who were at zero but not below zero got one point. The PRC and SUN scores could be done normally. Bonus scoring was explained back around the 12th.

I will update this and then the annual scoring on Wednesday (I hope) as the MS won't appear today due to the holiday Monday.

Haven't forgotten about the August contest, will be wading into that mess to figure out who may still need a word about my unclear bonus question, I did notifce yesterday that most had responded and provided a daily scale forecast. If you read this and have no idea what's up, go in and have a look at the comments about the bonus including mine towards the end.