Russia - threadbanned users in OP

joseywhales · 23-05-2023 12:54PM

These incursions are great, the old rules of the war were ridiculously asymmetric in favour of Russia. It's like being in a fight and only being allowed to block and not hit back. They always needed to create real jeopardy(i.e. risk of loss) for Russia to bring them to any reasonable negotiating position.

Gerry T · 23-05-2023 12:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631133#Comment_120631133

Its more plausible that Ukraine has seen an opportunity fall into its lap, where dissident Russians are being armed and supported by Ukraine, there could possibly be expat Russians living in Ukraine that volunteered for these guerilla tactics.

Either way, Russians will be furious about this development and hopefully question and look more closely at what their country under Putin are doing. Will it motivate some to JOin the Russian forces, possibly, but unless they are experienced & trained individuals all they would contribute to is the growing number of Russian body bags.

amandstu · 23-05-2023 01:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631222#Comment_120631222

Does Russia have an extradition treaty with Ukraine?

They could ask nicely.

If these Russians set up a gofundme page they would qualify as mercenaries and be welcomed home with open arms.

I am laughing now and hope it stays that way.

timmyntc · 23-05-2023 01:04PM

3 separate gray zones within Belgorod oblast now, turning up the heat on them.

Judging by the extent of what they're doing its deliberate to provoke a response from the Kremlin and see troops moved to the border here away from occupied territories.

If this works here in Belgorod, similar will happen in Kursk too

amandstu · 23-05-2023 01:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631367#Comment_120631367

Yes a very good tactic.

"Fly like a butterfly and sting like a bee."

Also good to demonstrate that not all Russians are degenerates or internal to degenerates.

Even so ,under normal conditions even degenerate's borders deserve respect.

paul71 · 23-05-2023 01:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631222#Comment_120631222

I do know you said it as a joke but I raised it a year ago. I do not think of it as them joining NATO, but eventually this war will be over. Eventually Putin will be dead. Eventually Russia must look at its place in the World. Russia is not the Warsaw pact and it is not the USSR. On a world stage it does not have a large population and demographics are not on its side.

In 20 years time, Russia will no longer be fighting in Ukraine. Its army will take decades to rebuild even to to the 3rd rate joke it was at the start of this war. It will be a geographically large country with a falling aging population but with huge natural resources. Russias mistake has been misidentifying its major treat. NATO since its inception never sought to do anything other than defend its members from Aggression. There was/is not/never will be a plan by NATO to invade Russia/Warsaw pact/USSR, they were always content to simply trade with Russia for its resources whilst holding a big stick saying "do not attempt to aggress against us".

China on the other hand!! Large Chinese populations in Eastern Russia, in poorly defended resource rich areas. I am an old idiot, and I can see where Russia's future security treats lies. They are incapable other then with Nuclear sabre rattling of defending the challenge and I suspect in the next 3 to 5 decades we will see the rise of Chinese nationalist movements and "little green men in eastern Siberia.

Where will Russia look to for an Ally then? Iran? Syria? **** No!!

Gatling · 23-05-2023 01:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631222#Comment_120631222

It was put to the Russians back in the 90s

Mr. CooL ICE · 23-05-2023 01:45PM

USSR asked too.

From one of my favourite youtube channels...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhLkwmSu98

Overheal · 23-05-2023 02:56PM

All he said was that halibut is fit for Jehova?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-deputy-minister-pyotr-kucherenko-dies-after-slamming-fascist-invasion-of-ukraine

jmreire · 23-05-2023 02:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631496#Comment_120631496

3 to 5 decades? You are being very generous, maybe 10-15 or even less. Will all depend on how Russia finishes in this war.

thomil · 23-05-2023 03:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631973#Comment_120631973

Here's the full list on the website of the German government:

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government (bundesregierung.de)

Berlin has definitely woken up, that's for sure. There are even deliberations going on with regards to Germany supporting the F-16 initiative, despite the fact that Germany doesn't operate any F-16s. Boris Pistorius, the minister of defense, is tight-lipped about the details, but I wouldn't be surprised if some mothballed air base in Southern Germany suddenly starts seeing traffic again...

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct · 23-05-2023 03:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120630470#Comment_120630470

Her and Micks supporters now are the conspiracy nutjobs, anti-covid, anti-immigrant and general malcontents. Theres a lot more of those weirdos out there than you think. Only thing is if they aren't too lazy to actually go out and vote on the day.

Brussels Sprout · 23-05-2023 03:27PM

The beauty of these incursions is that before them Russia were only concerned about defending the front-lines in red.

Now they have the worry about defending the blue front-lines as well.

Any resources required to beef that up are going to be taken from the red areas, thereby weakening them.

paul71 · 23-05-2023 03:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631922#Comment_120631922

YES it does depend on this war and where and how it finishes jmreire, to an extent. I think that extent is whether a regime change occurs in Moscow as a result of this war or not, I cannot predict that. However, the 3 to 5 decades I am predicting is because I am allowing for the fact the China has another issue on its plate, Taiwan.

I believe China will at some point move for both Siberia and Taiwan. However I do not think the Chinese are as stupid as Russia. They have infinite patience and I think Siberia will look very much like like Crimea in 2014. They will wait until the demographics there are right and the Chinese population is an absolute majority. Then it will be "little green men" thus denying Russia the opportunity of using a nuclear deterrent against a conventional invasion force.

Taiwan will be far more difficult.

PS> oddly two of the resources in Siberia I am talking about are not what many might suspect. People I am sure will assume, minerals and oil. The key resources are actually water and farmland (climate change).

Brussels Sprout · 23-05-2023 03:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120632055#Comment_120632055

When it comes to implicitly supporting Russia in the West it is a case of the Horse-Shoe Theory in action. Daly and Wallace represent the far left part of the horseshoe. As such they aren't anti-immigration. The far right part of the horseshoe will get that support. So basically the people complaining about Ukrainian migrants will vote for the National Party, Irish Freedom party or "concerned" independents.

Daly & Wallace will instead be fishing from the pool of people with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua flags in their twitter bio whose entire geopolitical outlook can be distilled down to "Whoever opposes the USA must be correct". These people who see themselves as the polar-opposite end of the spectrum on the migration issue.

And yeah as you say the complete nut-job conspiracy theorists are unlikely to vote at all since they likely don't trust or believe in the system.

In an earlier post I pointed out that Daly was helped out in her election in 2019 by the failure of the SF candidate to retain their seat. The exact same thing happened in Wallace's constituency. Liadh Ní Riada basically lost her seat to Wallace. Come the next election I expect a lot of that vote will return to whoever runs for SF.

Brussels Sprout · 23-05-2023 03:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120632084#Comment_120632084

I've see a lot of jokes about that T-14. It seems like it's the Loch Ness Monster of this conflict.

This is from wikipedia:

So basically....it's a tank that they're using like a piece of artillery (possibly towed artillery)

zv2 · 23-05-2023 04:31PM

...

Baba Yaga · 23-05-2023 04:49PM

let me get this straight,been away a couple of days....theres russians invading russia...?as someone famous said 'new sh1t has come to light'

and i hope the russians invading russia keep on invading russia and give Ukraine a chance to rid Ukraine of the rest of them 👍️

23-05-2023 04:50PM

Interesting analysis of Russia's changing tactics, strengths and weaknesses by UK think-tank RUSI

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine

The pdf is 37 pages but worth a read

Gatling · 23-05-2023 05:15PM

From the grayvoron border crossing

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1661051075665833984?s=20

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1661032281744474112?s=20

Gatling · 23-05-2023 05:43PM

France offering substantive security guarantee to Ukraine,

Zelensky won't settle for anything less than full membership

The Washington Post report highlighted plans for the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, set to take place in July, where the Ukraine NATO Council is expected to be launched. This council would serve as a platform for future membership considerations. The proposed agreement would grant Ukraine priority access to arms transfers and advanced technology, while enabling Ukraine to summon council meetings and seek assistance. The United States would serve as the primary guarantor of these security arrangements, working alongside European NATO members. Kyiv Security Compact, proposed in September 2022, outlines a comprehensive plan for Ukraine’s future NATO membership.

It will be interesting to hear what other Nato members think about the idea of a nonmember given the ability to summon council meetings and seek assistance from the alliance,

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/23/france-offers-security-guarantees-to-ukraine-affirms-commitment-to-support/

AerLingus747 · 23-05-2023 05:51PM

they're in Not NATO (NNATO)

briany · 23-05-2023 06:07PM

Regarding the Belgorod situation, has it been in any way linked to the forecasted Ukrainian counteroffensive, or is it just a useful coincidence? Is there any credible evidence to say that those causing this trouble for the Kremlin are being provided with intelligence, capital or material means by Ukraine and/or its allies?

Brussels Sprout · 23-05-2023 06:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120632657#Comment_120632657

Officially: No evidence at all. A completely organic uprising of concerned Russians within Russian territory etc etc........(basically whatever horssh1t the Russians peddled back in 2014 when they invaded)

Unofficially: I think this is unlikely to have happened without the UAF sanctioning it. They may even had got the nod from the USA as well. It answers a lot of strategic questions about how agile the Russians defences are so is likely part of the Greate Strategic plan for the counter-offensive

briany · 23-05-2023 06:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120632726#Comment_120632726

Hopefully. People saying that this uprising will draw troops away from the front line, what about the Rosgvardia? Is it not their specific job to keep a lid on this kind of thing?