Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498550#Comment_120498550

Some doer uppers dont need to be done upped though :)

One person doer upper is another persons it will do me grand.

One person needs an extension but another person may not need one.

And remember that in the non starter home bracket, most people will probably not be borrowing all of the moeny they could. They will probably be selling a property with some equity in it to trade up.

MacronvFrugals

More stories today of international money chomping at the bit for council leases.

Investment giant buys flats in Dublin’s Blackrock to rent to council

GLOBAL investment giant M&G’s Real Estate arm has bought a development of 67 apartments in the Dublin suburb of Blackrock for €31.3m.

The two blocks, known as The Butter Yard, have been let to Dun Laoghaire Rathdown County Council for social housing use on a 25-year term.

The sale suggests an average price of €460,000 for the units.

Small investment firm snaps up €14m of homes in two years

Arena Capital, a small investment firm that has bought up second-hand homes, has built a portfolio of residential property in Ireland worth more than €14 million over two years.

The company has acquired second-hand homes in a bid to lease the properties to local authorities for social housing. In November 2021

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/small-investment-firm-snaps-up-e14m-of-homes-in-two-years/

https://www.independent.ie/business/investment-giant-buys-flats-in-dublins-blackrock-to-rent-to-council-42439657.html

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498811#Comment_120498811

Are 70% of people in arrears of some sort to Dublin city council?

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120497704#Comment_120497704

I never excuded them, I just gave some examples that didnt include food workers specifically.

I did say salaries are irrelevant, so low paid key workers should be prioritised along with mid/high earning key workers.

Key workers dont have to be public sector, though they generally are.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120497990#Comment_120497990

The subsidy would be up to 150k per unit. The state have a proven track record of building for between 200 and 350 per unit depending on location

We need to move away from public private partnerships where the tax payer gives the money and the private sector collects the income tax free

Where has your concern for the taxpayer gone?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499038#Comment_120499038

My concern for the taxpayer, including myself, includes not entrusting the State to competently cost, and manage large scale property projects.

It takes some kind of myopic viewpoint to dismiss the 1Billion OVERSPEND on the children’s hospital with the line, someday it might be value for money.

If you want to wait for the State to build tens of thousands of homes, I have no problem with that, but those that want affordable rental homes as soon as possible, or anyone with even a meagre understanding construction, will understand that the fastest way to build houses, and quite possibly the cheapest way, is to enter a public private partnership.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498850#Comment_120498850

Good grief, it's a shame the state doesn't just freeze anu new deals with funds for 12 months and purchase property without having to compete with the funds.

The country has gone mad.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499121#Comment_120499121

The children's hospital and it's issues has been done to death. It was an FG pet project that was rushed ahead despite the final design not being complete, full of political interference they all want a hospital on there patch but not houses

Links have been provided for you showing housing delivery from public bodies that compare favourably with what the private sector can deliver cost wise, yet you continue to bladder on about the hospital which is a completely different project and falsely claim that the state can't provide housing without a massive overspend

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499121#Comment_120499121

The history of disastrous PPPs in this country, generally on the private side (builders going bust, backing out, substandard works) does not make me think that they are a solution for anything.

The core issue with the children's hospital is BAM. Who are also the problematic builder on a number of PPPs.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499208#Comment_120499208

The reasons why the CH, and schools projects are mentioned so frequently, is because they are the most recent, and most glaringly obvious example of what happens when the State undertakes large property projects. It just doesn’t suit your narrative to acknowledge the failings associated with the projects, and the huge risks of similar failures in financial oversight and delay, which would undoubtedly be associated with the State buildings tens of thousands of houses.

Villa05, what was the overspend on those houses you linked?

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498131#Comment_120498131

Planning permission will never be obtained for modular housing in established residential neighbourhoods and it would bring down house prices in the area, which would further fuel objections.

We also have a chronically under resourced planning dept, which means any planning requests, objections and site assesements take forever.

I do think the govt should put additional funding into the planning dept, to help grease the wheels of the planning process.

We also probably need routes for residential planning to avoid all manner of objections, so that only serious and considered objections can delay a new build from starting.

We do have to have an appeals process, but the one we have is far too biased towards the objector and it isnt too difficult for a residents association to band together and delay a new build into oblivion.

That NIMBY approach needs to be addressed by the govt and replaced with a slicker, faster planning process that does not allow spurious objections.

I would say we also need some fresh blood in DCC planning in particular, whom are not adverse to high rise in appropriate areas. Docklands, Heuston Station etc.

In terms of prioritisation of key workers, it isnt preferable, but in the current housing shortage, its required.

If we have 100 govt homes and 200 families looking for those homes and we are facing a major shortage in teachers/nurses within that community, we do need a way to prioritise those 100 homes (not all of them, but a bias nonetheless) towards key workers.

if 60 of those 200 families are key workers, 30 are unemployed and 30 work part time in non essential services, why would we not offer help to buy and shared equity or cost rental schemes to all of the families, but prioritise the key workers first?

if the key workers dont show up to work, social services collapse.

The unemployed dont show up to work anyway, so they contribute 0 to the economy.

The part timers are in supplementary roles that support private business, but their roles are not essential to keep that business afloat.

They effectivley pay no tax because they earn a below median salary.

The key workers are the staff in that equation that need to be housed first, because without them, we have no hospital services, school services etc.

That doesnt mean we dont try to house the rest by the way, but when demand is greater than supply, there has to be a form of selection process, if we want to maintain optimal usage of the limited homes we have available.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499243#Comment_120499243

This is why I suspect the Government are proposing a subsidy. If memory serves me right, the one for apartments is paid at the end of the process, when construction is completed, rather than at the start. But the uptake on that has been poor due to the higher costs of apartments in comparison to houses. No doubt there will be some tweaking to be done, and assurances to be included, but there is no doubt that incentivising private developers to build now, delivers the houses sooner, and most likely cheaper than the State undertaking the whole project from start to finish.

In relation to BAM, this is my objection to the State employing developers for large projects like building tens of thousands of houses. Developers are experienced operators in this sector, when they negotiate with Public/Civil servants, well obviously there is only one winner.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499392#Comment_120499392

There has already been substantial changes to planning from this government so with the right framework a modular home could be considered a temporary dwelling and planning would not be needed. If there was a will there is a way. Your still missing the point on your opinion of a key worker. If one set is prioritized over the other it further impugns the other group and they will not hang around if things have been made worse. You have made zero effort to address the current issue with pensions as the migration of our younger cohort is ramping up. So at the minute housing is prioritized to welfare, REITS and the rich, you now want your key worker definition put up higher than what you consider a non key worker. Who determines a key worker, you keep talking about teachers and nurses as key workers so who will serve these workers their food or groceries if there is a lack of employees to do this. So are food shop workers now deemed as being key? Then of course who pays the wage for all of these workers?? Are the people who pay the wage bills of all essential workers now deemed key workers and so forth. IMO every worker who pays income tax is a key worker and pushing one set further down the housing list will result in more people heading off to live somewhere else leaving an even bigger pensions timebomb for our grandkids to deal with. I outlined how money if its available should be spent by seriously reducing the amount of income tax paid by all workers who are paying into the system.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498211#Comment_120498211

Are those price drops based on the register, and so from properties that went sale agreed a few months back? There's no doubt that things quietened down over Christmas, everyone was expecting price drops and vendors were keen to shift properties. But now I'm seeing properties that have been lingering for months all getting snapped up, and new properties going sale agreed very quickly.

Interest rates SHOULD be cooling the market, but they haven't all been fed through into mortgage rates yet.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120500036#Comment_120500036

Yeap they are based on sold property prices that have come onto the PPR so you must be looking in a very specific highly sought after areas.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498211#Comment_120498211

Just to put some data around this point, so things are a bit clearer.

We've had 5 months of price drops in Dublin. 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 1.1% and then 0.1%, in that order. That is to say, the rate of price drops increased for 4 months but then slowed significantly in February.

Nationally, the story is the same, price drops in January of 0.6% and in February it was 0.4%.

Nationally excluding Dublin, the rate of drops increased from 0.2% in January to 0.4% in February.

The huge change in Dublin is likely why the national rate of decline dropped from 0.6% to 0.4% despite the national excluding Dublin figure rising.

In the grand scheme of things, where does this leave us? Essentially prices are back at September 2022 levels.

To get back to January 2020 levels (i.e. before the covid surge) prices would need to drop roughly a further 20% from today. Unless something happens that causes the rate of declines to massively increase this would take years.

So when you say "the pan is no longer boiling over" you are right. But really, we've moved from a pan at 100 degrees to a pan at 99 degrees.

tom_murphy112

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498550#Comment_120498550

I think I mentioned this before, but we bought our house in 2008. I still remember being outbid for a house in Jan/Feb of 2008, it was a **** one and we went back and forth few times before I said No. We eventually found a house and went sale agreed in end of May/early June of 2008. It only took few months for the market to turn, from having to bid on properties to the market becoming dead.

We did buy at the peak, but still managed to get 20K off the asking price as there was no other bidders. A year later a mate who bought a house, had no other option to post back his key and moved to Australia.. People forget that we saw bidding wars before 2008 and think what we saw in the last while is a new phenomena.

Personally nobody knows what will happen to the market, but as a person who bought just before the last crash we were told the market will never crash etc. etc.. But only looking back retrospectively did we find cracks in the market.

mcsean2163

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-poplars-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4697577

just shy of 2 million. I'm not seeing it .. is there that many people that can pull 2 million from behind the sofa?

Bsharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502002#Comment_120502002

My money is land purchase to building denser housing. Decent sized plot. You could make a good offer to the property next door and get an apartment block in or just build a group of 3 storey town houses on the site itself.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498606#Comment_120498606

The UK is ahead of us in terms of interest rate hikes and prices have started going up again there:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/20/uk-house-prices-defy-gloom-with-an-average-3000-rise

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502264#Comment_120502264

how much did prices drop by in comparison as well

enricoh

Iirc inflation in the eurozone was c 10% last year, it's expected to be less this year. Are well off people just throwing their money into property? If say 6.5% this year in the space of 2 years one sixth of their purchasing power will be gone if left in the bank.

2ndcoming

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120498532#Comment_120498532

The problem with this as we're already seeing with the first of these is when the government contracts private companies to do work they get absolutely rode. Everything is priced and charged at the absolute maximum so the "cost" rental ends up being 1500 quid a month for a two bed apt which is still pretty much useless.

When a private developer builds to sell their own properties these costs are kept to an absolute minimum because the margin is their profit which is why you see porches and even windows starting to become a bit of a rarity on many new builds.

This applies all the way up - a 200 bed hotel could be built for about 1/10 of a 200 bed hospital and we're seeing examples of this in Dublin as we speak.

The only solution is for the govt to build and manage the properties in the first place but they won't do that because it would bring the price of property and rents down. Solving the housing crisis but upsetting the rich, which is a no-no.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502692#Comment_120502692

I think I read they were up 3% year on year

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502783#Comment_120502783

I think the 3k increase is a MoM figure...quote from the article below.

the average home is on the market at £365,357 in March, a rise of 0.8% on the previous month.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120502984#Comment_120502984

Yep, but I read elsewhere, I think on rightmove uk, that they were up 3% year on year.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120499441#Comment_120499441

In the Last decade we sold apartments and housing to investment funds for peanuts and rented them back for a kings ransom.

Not smart

In the next decade we propose to subsidise the building of apartments which investment funds may buy with the subsidy discount and rent them to the state for a kings ransom.

Not smart

In relation to BAM, this is my objection to the State employing developers for large projects like building tens of thousands of houses. Developers are experienced operators in this sector, when they negotiate with Public/Civil servants, well obviously there is only one winner.

Surely the same logic applies to allowing a small number of investment funds monopolise and control rental supply in our high demand areas.

When we built 100k units in one year, it was not BAM or Sisk that were building them it was lots of small/mid sized operations that were building in every County in Ireland.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120503249#Comment_120503249

”we” didn’t build them, private developers did, motivated by profit and the need to build as quickly as possible and with manageable cost.

If you can’t understand the difference between a developer building on their own site to sell, and the State employing developers to build for them, I’m not sure I can help you. Suffice to say, keeping costs down and managing a budget are more important when the developer is working for themselves.

In relation to investment funds, it wasn’t long ago that posters were calling for professional landlords, you should be glad they are here, because without them and their forward financing, a lot of those rented developments would still be rubble strewn sites.

I know you are not for turning, but if you want houses delivered more quickly and with lower costs, then you incentivise developers, you don’t employ them, hand them a saddle and tell them to jump on your back. Robert Watt was an example yesterday of what happens when you give PS/CS money to spend, they won’t give a toss about what people like you and me think, they will just hand out the money, would you even know who is responsible for overseeing the children’s hospital? Of course you wouldn’t, you just want to hand the same type of people billions to hand out to developers, but you are smart.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120500035#Comment_120500035

So where are all these modular homes being built?

if you only have 100 homes available, you can only house 100 families. If we dont prioritise key workers (or another group -please name another group if there is a better one?) then the 100 homes will fill up with those on welfare and the rich.

Exactly as you say.

So the squeezed middle will emigrate anyway, if they are so inclined.

if its a choice between a nurse or teacher or supermarket worker staying, yes, id prefer the key worker stayed over someone self employed or working admin in a bank, insurance company etc.

pensions were not part of the conversation but i agree that is a ticking time bomb.

we are replacing a lot of the young migrating with new young immigrants.

the CSO stats from the census will confirm this year.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120503394#Comment_120503394

You want speculators to be rewarded, while I want workers that add value to be rewarded. Speculation adds costs and results in the boom bust markets we have become accustomed to.

We have examples of "bucks from Mayo" building for an affordable price to median income earners and all the policies implemented to reward speculators used to snap them away from those people and handed to speculators who add 100,000 to the price or double the rent.

You want taxpayers money to reward speculators rather than it being used to be invested in critical infrastructure that helps the economy and the nations citizens. It really is that simple.

The funds we incentivised were the ones that wanted to turn a quick buck. Many funds who want stable reoccurring income in a stable environment refused to come here because they could see our policies were boonm bust in nature. This is harmful to their business model