Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210669#Comment_120210669

They want to keep it high but "affordable", they still haven't figure out that you can't have both.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210681#Comment_120210681

You can keep it stable while wages rise with inflation.

For the government to intervene and try to cause a crash would be a disaster for a great many people, as much as those who haven't saved for a deposit want it to happen.

rob316

Oh look the housing minister has another solution to the supply problem today. Increasing Local authority loans and house price ceiling limits! Yippee more buyers for a tiny pool of houses.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210921#Comment_120210921

Why not indeed, sure what could go wrong with such a policy

tanko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197377#Comment_120197377

Yeah i’m sure that the likes of Micheal Martin and Eamon Ryan will look after the Irish economy just like they did in 2008. Sure those lads have an unlimited understanding of economics, it’ll be grand. It’s only fifteen years since we were bankrupt, you have a short memory.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120211010#Comment_120211010

who needs to focus on the economic conditions when you have a government who's only consistent policy is increase demand. There is nothing out there, I haven't seen a 3 bed new build come on the market in Cork city since last October.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210669#Comment_120210669

Selling of passports is a nice little earner that pretty much everyone does these days, so I doubt it is specifically about property prices. Squeezing supply has already been pretty successful in reinflating the Celtic bubble.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210819#Comment_120210819

Equally for the government to intervene to cause a bubble would be a disaster for all people and the economy.

We would be a great country if we were as focused on the upside risk as we are on the downside

realitykeeper

A squeezed housing supply is a theory the government would like people to believe. Another explanation is that the 200 billion the government borrowed since 2008 (and has nothing to show for it) was used to reinflate the existing housing stock in this country. New houses account for only a very small proportion of overall houses and the government is quite content to see young people scramble for the scraps. The key to solving the problem is to systematically unwind everything the government has done since 2008.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212131#Comment_120212131

I would love to see you try to take back the 2 biggest areas of spend in that time which is the amounts being pumped into both the public sector pay and pensions and welfare. Good luck with getting the toothpaste back in the tube with that one.

realitykeeper

Well one thing that could be done would be to resurrect Anglo Irish Bank. They could appoint some homeless guy with terminal cancer as CEO. Then, instead of Ireland buying Anglo with it's toxic debt, Anglo could buy Ireland. Next step, Anglo would tell everyone we owe money to that it owns Ireland so it owes our debt. Final step, a demerger, so Alglo has it's debt back. That would knock 60 billion off the national debt.

There ways and means of going after the demographic that benefitted from government policies since 2008. It won't happen of course but there are consequences to everything.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212418#Comment_120212418

OK try and keep in the realms of reality Anglo is gone and even if in a parallel universe we did get the 60 billion back from what happened with the banks we would still owe 170 billion in debt.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212446#Comment_120212446

Most of the public debt was due to overspending on public services not the banks. We had a balance of payments of near 40 billion when the last recession hit

realitykeeper

Bailing out the bank's was all part of re-inflating the existing (already built) housing stock in this country. It will be interesting to see how it pans out. It would take a significant downturn in the economy to undercut the government's efforts to keep property prices high. But if that were to happen, there is a real chance people would ask what we got for the 200 billion they borrowed since 2008.

realitykeeper

Paying public servants a lot of money is another way to push property prices higher. The 200 billion borrowed since 2008 was used directly or indirectly (eg higher salaries) to inflate property prices.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212856#Comment_120212856

Not to get bogged down in pay related matters but it seems fair that public service pay should keep pace with private sector pay. It is also fair to say that most public servants struggle to afford housing compared to the buying power of higher paid private sector workers, particularly those employed in pharma/fintech sectors so using their pay as an reason for higher property prices would seem almost as illinformed as not understanding why it was necessary for our economy to prop up the banks in 2008.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212131#Comment_120212131

I think you’re looking for the conspiracy theories forum.

tanko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212881#Comment_120212881

Good god, what a load of rubbish.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212881#Comment_120212881

Dont want to get into the public vs private sector but from the CSO website public sector is already paid 20% more on average per employee than the private sector and that figure is without last years pay rises or this years. Also over half of the population working in Ireland di not get pay rises last year and don't have the tax payer to support huge debt so pay rises will more than likely send private sector companies to the wall. So it means the majority of private sector got no pay rises last year as out of the 50% of workers who did they included every single public sector worker.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212418#Comment_120212418

I have no worldly idea what you are raving about

Villa05

Interesting assessment of the US market many parallels with our own

Remember when we could not build houses because we were too busy building offices and other commercial property. We'll that sector is looking like toast,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-07/the-property-black-swan-may-spare-the-us-others-may-not-be-as-lucky

Ozark707

Some recent updates from ECB board members on the direction of IR's in the short to medium term.

Two senior European Central Bank policymakers on Tuesday also pushed back against the idea that it could soon stop raising interest rates. Isabel Schnabel, an ECB executive board member, said it “can’t yet give the all clear on inflation” because underlying price pressures — excluding volatile energy and food prices — are “still extraordinarily high”. Schnabel told a Finanzwende webinar that “monetary tightening is having little impact so far” on inflation and the recent deceleration of price growth in the eurozone purely reflected a fall in energy inflation. Her comments appeared designed to counter investor hopes that the ECB could pause after its meeting next month, when it has signalled plans to raise rates by another half percentage point.

Germany’s central bank boss Joachim Nagel, who is a member of the ECB rate-setting governing council, told Börsen-Zeitung that “further, significant rate hikes” were still needed because even after it raised its deposit rate to 2.5 per cent last week, this did not yet seem “restrictive” to him.

https://www.ft.com/content/10b6d4f2-d48f-401f-8407-8d5688d1e226

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120210921#Comment_120210921

Give a load of people, whom the Banks won't lend money to, access to more money so that they can bid more for houses, pushing up the prices, and then the Councils can come in and outbid everyone else by 10% on top of that anyway

What was it a poster said above about our genius public sector being underpaid? 🤣

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213744#Comment_120213744

Two Germans. The Germans for historic reasons always favour low inflation and always pushing that message. There are too many Eurozone countries that suffer too much from rate rises for it to go much higher. But for foreseeable future it seems debt is getting more expensive.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213770#Comment_120213770

The Irish civil service does whatever its told and collect pensions. At the moment, the policy of the state is to drive up house prices in the pursuit of infinite growth; damn the consequences.

The IMF should have been let loose on that benighted organisation 15 years ago.

TagoMago

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212881#Comment_120212881

If we start using the small percentage of very highly paid fintech/pharma workers as the benchmark for levelling up public sector workers wages, we'll be in for a very long recession indeed. For every fintech manager earning 150k with full pension and healthcare and an annual bonus, how many workers earning 30k with 0 benefits are there?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215163#Comment_120215163

Not the point I was making.

My point was that higher income earners are able to bid more for limited supply, pushing up prices, so saying that rising house costs are due in any significant part to public sector workers getting pay increases is misinformed. It’s fairly clear that Gardai/Nurses/teachers etc currently renting are not going to be the buyers bidding up on property in Dublin.

TagoMago

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215329#Comment_120215329

Fair point, the exodus of teachers from Dublin probably being the most prominent example. There should probably be public sector salary bands based on location like there are for bigger companies in the private sector, can't ever see that ever happening in Ireland though

Cristianc

I am not seeing any shift yet. Trying to buy an apartment in the south of Dublin on the luas line, it's gone up by 10% and still bidding (500k range).

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216315#Comment_120216315

Most apartments, as far as I can see, have very few offers and definitely showing more weakness than turnkey houses. 500k+ you can buy decent stuff in GrandCanal that is not shifting..