Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186724#Comment_120186724

Uk stamp duty reductions during Covid, shared ownership also in Uk, income multiples of 6/7, uk housing bodies it’s not that different. But what is different is they lost all credibility with the markets and shot themselves in both feet multiple times. They make our government look good

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186753#Comment_120186753

there is nothing sinister all that is happening is that depositors are subsidising mortgages by banks not paying interest on deposits.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120187803#Comment_120187803

Last year there were more professionals coming to work in Ireland than we have seen in years.. it’s foolish to assume all uneducated and lacking skills.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188463#Comment_120188463

I guess some of those workers will take their redundancy and emigrate.

Ozark707

Some speculation was flowing around that this would be the last Fed rise...expectations of that have just been smacked down. It rates are going to be higher in a global sense than many expected then it will reduce prices here

Officials nodded to recent improvement in inflation readings but didn’t significantly alter their guidance around upcoming rate moves in a policy statement released after the meeting.

“The committee anticipates that ongoing increases” in interest rates “will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive,” said the statement, using the same language included in policy statements since last March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-approves-quarter-point-rate-hike-signals-more-increases-likely-11675278190

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188675#Comment_120188675

In that case if you are a depositor it would make sense to move your money from banks that are subsidizing mortgages to banks that pass on the higher interest to savers.

Dolbhad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120187054#Comment_120187054

That’s it. The location is so close to city centre. The estate was never fully built and for years residents wanted the infrastructure and houses to be built. I don’t blame them for giving up. As you have said, do a mixture. The council has plenty of land to build in Cork on they just don’t want to. Alot of people would love the chance to buy in such a great location.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188793#Comment_120188793

Business editor on TLW talking about these layoffs last week with Matt Cooper, he said the employee numbers after layoffs will still be at or above levels in Sept 2022, companies hired expecting demand during Covid to continue, it hasn’t, but net employment is still as high as it was third quarter last year. Also, layoffs in Ireland are likely to be on the light side as many tech companies are headquartered here and the services are different from those in the US. As has been pointed out to you, it is easier and cheaper to cut staff numbers in US than here, and he said very few skilled IT workers remain unemployed for long as other companies are picking them up quickly.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120167480#Comment_120167480

This is it. Building a house has gotten very very expensive and indeed risky. People are saying higher mortgage rates will eventually end up meaning a crash in housing prices but that's only looking at one aspect.

Unless there's a significant drop in demand/depopulation and/or drop in building costs it's hard to see a significant drop in prices in the short to medium term.

There has been planing granted here locally for approx 150 units across 3 new estates going back 24 or 36 months now. None anywhere near starting. All around me I hear of couples in their early thirties who have a housing need spending thousands upon thousands trying and generally failing to get planning for one off houses on sites and those who do baulking at the build costs when and if they eventually get that far.

These things don't appear to be changing.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188909#Comment_120188909

You cannot be making sensible statements like that, do you not see the sky falling in

byrne249

The development I have a place sale agreed on today raised prices 10k on 3 and 4 Bed Semi D's. I thought I would be paying more than those who moved into the later phases.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188675#Comment_120188675

That's not how a proper banking business is run

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188648#Comment_120188648

In Ireland these schemes are in there infancy while in UK they are mature so you can have a crystal ball as to where we are heading

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188923#Comment_120188923

While it may be sensible, share options and IT high wages were seen as a reason for house price growth, would a correction in same result in a correction in house prices

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188810#Comment_120188810

Alot of talk, using their words to play down the whole thing and reinforce a hawkish approach on inflation. I really would not heed one word they say I would only watch and heed what they actually do. Come August September after their rate pauses there will be alot of rumblings of lowering rates as CPI will be well under control. This is all with the caveat that something crazy doesn't happen geopoliticaly with Russia, China and the Saudis that would drive up energy prices.

lordleitrim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185687#Comment_120185687

Would most people just not answer that question or say it's a private matter? Do you always state your income( less the 50k) to anyone who asks?

I'd think it would only be a very nosey or rude person who would ask such a question and a gullible person who would feel the need to divulge or even to give a fake answer.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188909#Comment_120188909

Perhaps you are right. We shall see.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120190031#Comment_120190031

Not me, Ian Guider, Markets Editor with the Business Post, I quoted what he said in his interview on The Last Word.

Dave3030

Anyone know the rough cost of breaking a fixed term mortgage?

If i fix for 5 years at 3.5% and want to break it in 2 or 3 years? Mortgage amount is 200k remaining over 25 years?

i know it depends on the bank/term etc but roughly are we looking at 500Eur /2k /5k, or even more??

Thanks!

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120190759#Comment_120190759

completely depends on how interest rates develop between when you fix and when you wish to break. generally if they increase there wont be a break fee and if they decrease there will be.

Villa05

A very tempting offer for our youth

The Dubai-based airline is hosting a recruitment day in Dublin next Tuesday where applicants will be assessed and interviewed.

Those who are successful will have the chance to move to Dubai where they will receive phenomenal benefits including a tax-free salary, free accommodation and discounted travel for themselves and their family

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189808#Comment_120189808

Clearly it depends on your relationship with that person. Sometimes its easier to make up an answer than refuse to answer, especially when they keep asking. Sometimes its easier to refuse as long as they stop asking. Any survesys that i get caught for I usually just make up all the answers for fun, especially boards polls :)

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191294#Comment_120191294

This thread is so clogged up with "the sky is falling" posts about the economy and anecdotal tales of mass emigration that are regularly completely at odds with all the actual statistics and evidence, but the fact that one foreign company happens to be holding a recruitment day is really stretching the limits of relevancy to a discussion about the Irish property market.

And oil rich middle eastern autocracies with infrastructure built on the back of effective slave labour have been offering financial benefits that no democracy can compete with for at least the last decade or two, it's nothing new.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191476#Comment_120191476

If everything is so hunky dory why are the ECB upping interest rates by another .5% today? There are huge problems globally which is why such measures are being brought to bear. A lot of people (including myself) have said this year is the year we see things turning downward. If it doesn't then this time next year I will post saying I was wrong.

FedoraTheAura

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/bank-of-england-raises-uk-interest-rates-to-4

UK rates officially up another .5 points. Doesn’t seem to be much wavering as the same 7 decision-makers voted for a .5 rise and 2 voting for no change as the last rate rise.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191294#Comment_120191294

Middle Eastern airlines recruit here and eslehere regularly. AFAIK they have quota's as to the number they take from any one country. They require a diverse staff for there own reasons. I know a friend of my daughter that is with them about 4-5 years.

However you will only have a 10-15 years career with them. They want to keep there staff young and female generally, there is no gender, equality or age laws in these jurisdiction.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191513#Comment_120191513

Again the sky is falling in. The EU will probably rise rates fir another few months. However when inflation falls they will drop them fast enough as well. Remember we were coming off a negative interest rate whereby the first one percent actually boosted the economy

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191513#Comment_120191513

There's a big difference between a 0.5% rate rise to combat inflation and the sort of claims people have been making that there's suddenly going to be mass emigration and that the economy is going to go into freefall. Net migration is still heavily positive, the jobs market is still very competitive, there are record levels of savings in the country, and the latest growth figures came in a couple of days ago which showed the economy is still growing well.

Nobody is denying the international economic headwinds, but most analysis is suggesting the rate rises will take something like 3% off what house prices otherwise would have been, which means e.g. they might rise by 2% instead of rising by 5%. They might stay still or might drop a little, nobody can predict the future, but I would safely predict that we're not going to see a double digit drop.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191550#Comment_120191550

Your not joining the dots, there are 316k mortgages that are not on a fixed term mortgage - so they are either on trackers or fixed rates. That could mean these people paying over 500 a month extra on interest for their mortgage alone. Add in what inflation has done to the standard persons take home wage and its plain to see that the wind will be knocked out of a lot of sails when it comes to spending.. This will impact businesses if people are not spending business hit the wall... Then you have the impact of FTBs what rate they will have to pay to get on the ladder, this will dampen demand. So there is going to be a serious impact on spending this year. 0.5% today will bring it to 2.5%, 0.5% in March to 3% and the ECB are saying that rates will continue right through the summer with April already being earmarked for the next increase, it may drop the percentages' on the increases to .25% for a few of the increases but the general consensus is 2023 will see no interest rate drops.. So by the end of the Autumn we could be looking at the ECB up at 4%.

I am not saying the sky is falling in but to stick you head in the sand and think 2023 is going to be all rosy in the garden and will be similar to 2022 or any of the last 5 years is delusional.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0202/1353189-ecb-expected-to-hike-interest-rates-by-further-0-5/

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120191606#Comment_120191606

Yet neither you or I will know what rate emigration outwards is until April. I did say anecdotal evidence is suggesting we are going to see a higher number than last year.

GDP with the unreliability of the MNCs for growth rate we need to be watching the GNP and see how badly our domestic companies are doing.

There are other factors at play like modular homes if this supply line can be ramped up it could make a serious contribution to the supply side its already making headway in places like Carlow this year we could see 2023 stagnating for the first 2/3 quarters and eventually dropping at the turn of the year while interest rates remain at the highest point, businesses and individuals really start feeling the pinch and with the tech companies shedding jobs to protect their profits I don't think the government will have that 20Billion cushion like they did last year. But its all gusss work form either side but one thing is for sure 2023 is a completely different beast with regards to the economic headwinds than any of the last 5/6 years.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188648#Comment_120188648

Where are you getting 6/7 times income multiples. I'm aware of a person in a senior position in a UK investment bank with a retail division that could only get 4, had to get help from others to get the sale over the line