Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971173#Comment_118971173

Student accomodation can fill a gap, when they are required back in Sept, holiday homes could be used. This buys time to get our house in order.

I don't think alot of people recognise the seriousness of the situation the world faces, there is a strong argument for rationing of fuel and food and we are not far away from famine in many countries. WFH should be fully re instated where possible for the summer months. That time should be used for park and ride facilities for the winter months as heating many people in a large office is more efficient than everyone having the heating on all day.

There is an absolute perfect storm coming, we need to be making full use of what we have

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118969411#Comment_118969411

Single people alwaysstruggled to buy houses historically. Most used to be in there late 30's or 40's before they could afford to buy a house. Yes for a period in the 90's and especially in the price collapse after the noughties they could. But generally they struggled to buy unlesson very good wages. that is why you see many single older people having moved back into a family home or living in LA housing.

Villa05

Just in case you were in any doubt that state activity was not fueling house price inflation

A case involving a company whose entire board were found to have engaged in fraudulent behaviour

This country is toxic

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/davy-shelling-out-bumper-prices-for-houses-already-leased-to-limerick-council-de03c7b4

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971833#Comment_118971833

There'll be Anglo-type stories about what Davy have been up to (with what we know so far being the tip of the iceberg) when the whole charade gets uncovered, I believe.

I posted last year that DCC leases its long term social housing properties from Davy-managed vehicles in the vast majority of cases. Owen Keegan of DCC is of course former Davy. These are the unelected elites that run the country for their own benefit and there is every reason to think their activities will contribute to another sort of property crash. Having SF lift the rock of omerta that let's these guys get away with fleecing the taxpayer by bringing in some anti-institutional investor laws will cause the insects to scamper. We'll have the inner circle of FF/FG politicians, corporate lobbyists, media shills etc all crying about the economy tanking because of SF's anti-FDI measures but it will be gaslighting from institutional abusers of the taxpayer. Again, I just don't know why Irish people give so much respect to authority regardless of how corruptly the authority is being exercised, it truly is a toxic, self-destructive, bordering on masochistic, trait. These folks should be turfed out of business.

Amadan Dubh

Reading this story in the IT from today about WFH really blossoming, with employees having the jobs market to themselves and they are voting with their feet with respect to WFH, it made me think that rampant energy prices and even further housing pressures from Ukrainian refugees taking up at least some rentals, this will inevitably lead to more WFH as standard. Which for me is another nail in the coffin of commercial property in Dublin (which is a good thing as the focus the last few years has been on building more and more offices but no corresponding apartment blocks to house the workers that were supposed to take the offices) so, quite frankly, stuff the commercial landlords of recently built Dublin offices. The city centre being a ghost town during covid restrictions shows how much of an oversupply of office space we have.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/the-future-of-work-will-we-ever-return-to-the-office-as-we-knew-it-1.4853741

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971961#Comment_118971961

I have no doubt the commercial market is in for a rough ride (as an example I passed a new office block which has been empty since it was finished well before Covid on the Rock/Merrion road at Booterstown and if there is older stock which is currently empty then good luck with that)...but how much of this can be converted to residential without learning it down and starting afresh? I think there are too many hopes of quick wins and the reality is that the demand side is just too great. The only short term fix IMO would be for the Irish gov to allow workers to work from anywhere (possibly in EU) as this would allow many Europeans to return home or Irish looking for a cheaper life to move abroad. It is probably a long shot but as far as I can see we are about a month away from total chaos in the market.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971833#Comment_118971833

As the full article is behind a paywall I am wondering how this fund is allow buy places. I thought it was outlawed for funds now to buy houses (unless these are all apartments).

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971933#Comment_118971933

Who needs ninja loans or 110% mortgages to drive an asset bubble when you have this cronyism going on.

This time its different!

The government is giving local authorities more powers to buy property for Ukrainian refugees. I've no issue with the humanitarian need.

But I was hoping to buy this year so it's nice to know I'll have yet another competitor with bottomless coffers.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972367#Comment_118972367

Is anyone else yearning for the good old days 2008-2012? The state was far less dangerous when it was broke!

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972395#Comment_118972395

the country is still broke the main difference is we were 40 billion in debt in 2008 ... we are now approx. 250+ billion debt now with precious little to show for it ....................

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972094#Comment_118972094

An Italian colleague of mine is struggling to find a place to live here in Dublin. Currently, he’s sharing a house with four other guys, and every single rental property that he calls about is gone. This isn’t simply that he has no money as he earns more than me, and I have a good wage. Rather, there is simply nothing to rent.

What’s driving him crazy is that he owns a home in Italy, and he worked remotely there for most of the last two years. I’ve heard of other Europeans who have similar stories to tell.  It’s crazy that these people can’t work from their country of origin as it would be perfectly feasible. It’s merely red-tape that is keeping him here, and I think it’s well past time that these laws are changed.  

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972419#Comment_118972419

Fair point. Perhaps I should have said that the state is less dangerous when it’s starved of credit.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972422#Comment_118972422

Its not as simple as that. There are tax and legal implications of which country you work in and which employment laws are applicable etc. I suspect the wage rate in Ireland is more than that of Italy otherwise why is your colleague here or other Europeans with similar stories?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972349#Comment_118972349

....and to add insult to injury, its looking like theres something brewing in our shadow banking systems, of which a large proportion of ifsc activities are based, so.......

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972395#Comment_118972395

once again, the cause of our public finances of that period was clearly due to its build up, i.e. rapidly growing private debt, i.e. the states failure was in its facilitation of this.....

Ireland Debt.jpg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972419#Comment_118972419

once again, the country isnt broke at all, as increased deficit borrowing/spending is currently being facilitated, but a large proportion of our debts are known as odious, i.e. have not been used to help provide our needs, and some of it should be forgiven

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972424#Comment_118972424

once again, providing the private sector with money in the form of credit has caused far more damage, again, graph included, this leads to asset speculation in the form of property speculation, lead to inflated prices due to the increase of credit into the market!

Villa05

Maybe not too far away, one would expect a change of tune from the ECB noww that the French election is out of the way.

With regard to investment funds buying property, which power would be greater

Rising interest rates dampening appetite or rising inflation increasing it.

The US has put the possibility of raising rates at 0.5 to 0.75 increments and the inflationary pressures are much higher in the EU

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972549#Comment_118972549

id say central banks are gonna be forced back the way soon enough, theres simply too much debt out there, particularly in the private domain, we ve completely knotted ourselves up in debt, wide scale debt forgiveness is the only real solution, but that probably wont happen, so.....

Villa05

Hse finds large empty building in Dublin 4

Mr Lacey had previously said it was “quite shameful” that the hospital had been empty for long and urged the HSE to make it available for Ukrainian refugees.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/empty-dublin-4-hospital-may-be-used-as-housing-hub-for-ukrainian-refugees-41581787.html

Amadan Dubh

Emergency powers being considered to get housing for Ukrainians, because of course the housing crisis was never an emergency before (360 rentals in Dublin city today - removing those costing €4k+ pm - so essentially we have reached peak employment in the City and further jobs growth will not be possible). It is embarrassing how FF and FG are scrambling around this topic in order to look good in front of their European partners, but they have ignored and gaslighted the workers in Ireland pleading for something significant to be done for years. This is such a kick in the face to those in the country impacted by the housing crisis, you'd almost like to see these politicians hung from the Dáil rafters.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40858124.html

Spudmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972497#Comment_118972497

They are here as the equivalent jobs simply aren't in Italy (or elsewhere). We are spoiled in this country with the choice of MNCs we can choose to work for. That same choice just doesn't exist elsewhere. This is why I work with Italians who I know would rather be at home in Italy but know their employment opportunities are limited there. Give them the choice and they'd be at home. I'd say many of them would also take a wage hit knowing they could work from the south of Italy where the overall cost of living is significantly cheaper.

I know there is an initiative in Italy at the moment actually where in an attempt to lure their own workforce back they are offering very significant tax breaks for the first 5-10 years of them arriving back in Italy.

timmyntc

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0425/1294115-ukraine-ireland/

From bad to worse..

Vacant social homes are to be brought in to use as part of a range of measures to find more places to accommodate Ukrainian refugees.

...

The measures will also include an expanded acquisition programme where local authorities will have greater flexibilities to acquire certain homes.

...

The minister will also consider using emergency powers, already available to him under existing legislation, whereby certain planning and procurement requirements can be exempted, where required, to speed up delivery in emergency situations.

Looks like the practice of local authorities bidding against FTBs is set to increase rather than stop as was earlier promised. Expect prices in the private markets to shoot up again shortly

Emergency powers to bypass planning/procurement sounds like a great way to build poor quality accommodation in the wrong places, expect some large developments to be dumped in places with no infrastructure, and lots of funding earmarked for procurement to vanish. Perhaps scrutiny for construction tenders will be 'exempted' also, nice way for a friend of the govt to make a few bob.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972912#Comment_118972912

The big MNCs are booking future profits today in order to avoid tax in the future (according to the Currency), which means that we are experiencing a corporate tax boon that will not be this high very soon. But it also means that the big MNCs no longer need to be committed to Ireland solely for tax reasons so, if they have a presence in other EU countries, can facilitate workers working from and servicing their home countries. I think this is where we will start to see them implement "work from any EU country where we have a presence" policies rolled out as workers vote with their feet and jump ship from the Irish motherships. All because we did not bed down our growth and try to let these workers build futures here, largely by failing to provide appropriate and affordable housing.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972912#Comment_118972912

I am not sure people will be allowed be employed in an Irish company but work in another EU country. Where will the income tax and PRSI receipts go to?.

From what I can see most European countries are having a housing crisis so I don't think housing is the sole issue. I can't see full remote working becoming the norm for at least another 10 yrs or so. We were forced into it over the last 2 yrs.

The tax reductions is an interesting one. It needs to be made attractive for corporations to locate. offering a reduced income tax rate to encourage nationals to return wont work unless corporations are on board.

I know we are getting off topic a bit but I think having access to the only english speaking, young well educated workforce in the EU is still attractive (certainly in the short to medium term).

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972987#Comment_118972987

The standard of English in NL, DE, SWE are all more than good enough to do the work MNCs in Ireland do. English speaking is no longer an Irish selling point. More and more of the MNCs already based in Ireland are hiring from Europe, not domestically. Tax is the big issue here. Tax loopholes like the double irish were a big attraction for FDI.

As said before, countries will not easily allow workers to be on payroll for an Irish subsidiary but live abroad. Country needs not only the income tax, but also consumption taxes. People being employed in Ireland but living abroad are not a great benefit to the country. Other countries will see things in a similar fashion.

Remote working only takes housing pressure off big cities as people can work in smaller towns/countryside. It doesnt apply internationally at any large scale.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972902#Comment_118972902

Emergency powers eh? I, for one get extremely nervous when anything like this comes up.  If I will be indulged in a wee bit of theory-crafting, I would like to express that I greatly fear that we are approaching the point where the state is going to attempt some sort of expropriation to deal with the mess that it has created. Only last week, the Minister for Justice said that she would like to avoid compelling persons to give up property to house refugees. Language like that is dangerous, very dangerous. For my own part, I would burn a house down before I gave it to the state.

With regard to refugees, I have sympathy for any genuinely displaced individual, but taking in refugees in the tens or even hundreds of thousands simply is not simply impractical given the housing situation here, it is the action of the insane. Ukraine is an enormous country, and the conflict is not all-encompassing. I see absolutely no reason why the majority of people displaced by the war cannot be accommodated in the western parts of the country. The rest of Europe could help out by sending humanitarian aid instead of weapons…

Villa05

Not much point in cutting personal taxes if any benefit in incomes is hoovered up by the property lobby. Fix housing first, if you fix housing many other issues are also impacted positively

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972094#Comment_118972094

I dont think you have thought that through what about the knock on effect for taxes as in people who no longer live here no longer pay tax for the individual yeah its good for the rest of the people living here it may mean further taxation or further cuts to essential services.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972912#Comment_118972912

Their own and foreign workers too -

https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/tax-breaks-for-workers-moving-to-italy-new-official-guidelines-released

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972569#Comment_118972569

This notion of debt forgiveness means the debt is just transferred it does not just disappear. What kind of precedent would be set if on a wide scale everyone's debt was forgiven sure why would you bother paying back any loan if this actually happened. There is a mechanism for debt forgiveness called bankruptcy the problem is people don't like having to start from scratch and try to hide and deceive before entering.

Spudmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972987#Comment_118972987

I think we've dined out off the english-speaking well-educated workforce trope for long enough. In reality a significant majority of those working in my field are from outside Ireland; India, Italy, Spain, Romania etc. They are all more than proficient in English and many of them are incredibly smart. What they suffer from is a lack of opportunities in their own country. To the point where conversely enough, its easier to get accommodation than a job there, whereas here its easier to get a job than accommodation.

Also these aren't Irish Companies, many of them are American headquartered here for tax purposes. I don't know the ins and outs of how they'd manage it as I'm not an accountant or anyone versed in cross border employment regulations but what I can say is that these places have more than enough tricks to circumvent any of these issues. Many of they guys I work with are already in different jurisdictions.