Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074551#Comment_118074551

Yep, I see the exact same. There has never been fewer houses in our area, yet most of the bidding pressure has come off. Seems odd.

I also think you're right on the fixer uppers, and even had a few EAs say as much and that people are now beginning to really factor increased costs when bidding on properties needing work.

I could definitely live with a 10-15% reduction over the next year or two, in fact, I'd welcome it. We'll likely never leave this house. Would feel fairly sick if things dropped 30% by Christmas though! I think we have probably paid c.10-15% more than we would have paid in 2019, but also 5% less than we bid on the same property 6 months ago, so kind of feels like a win. I can imagine a scenario where supply picks up in Spring and the 15-25% inflation over the last 12 months coming off quite quickly (as you say maybe that was down to stuff like excess saving). But it's hard to envisage prices going back down to 2017 and prior nominal prices anytime soon with the job market this strong.

Best of luck with the purchase, hope it goes well from here.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074554#Comment_118074554

Congrats on the purchase

Ref bubble, there's plenty of air left. The shared ownership impact hasn't hit the market yet. I suppose it is in all our interests to cool it a little but policies don't appear to match that yet

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074688#Comment_118074688

Just to say, we lost out on our dream home due to being in a chain.

Now looking at a house again but a bit alarmed as homes in our area were going sale agreed almost straight away but now seem to languish and final sale price considerably lower. Market definitely seems to be weakening but agree on inflation. It's a tough call and timing is difficult.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074798#Comment_118074798

Sorry to hear that, are you still looking in Dun Laoghaire and surrounding areas? We also lost out on ours too - it came back to market after going sale agreed €250k over asking in April. We "won" the bidding war at €100k over asking in August, but the seller decided not to sell for that and said we'd have to pay the previously sale agreed price to get it to which we refused. Rang for a final check-in on it before we went sale agreed on current place and it's currently €375k over asking with 3 people still bidding. Should have stumped up back in August but I guess everything is easy in hindsight!

Timing is impossible, I thought things were softening early summer but then it seemed to rally again. So have no doubt if we did pull out now, things would take off (or at least feel like they're taking off) straight away.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074409#Comment_118074409

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074269#Comment_118074269

The average house price is still attainable for the average couple working for 50k under the current financial paradigm that people use to buy a property in this day and age. Beans on toast may be a treat but not when its your one and only meal of the day for a year I think you will find that treat has outstayed its welcome. Not mention the damage being done to your sphincter muscles :)... We really need to stop confusing our supply issue with affordability.

Also 10 years ago we had 1/2 million less people living here. Your right about people moving out of the cities and this is what is known as urban sprawl a phenomena that has been going for decades all over the globe - why do you think Ireland should be immune to this given our new population size and our decision to stop building for people on welfare. I mean if you want to live somewhere desirable you have to pay the price as other people also want to live there this is economics 101.

As for the average age for people buying a property this also has a lot to do with people wanting to live more as apposed to being saddled with a mortgage, same goes with the average age of having kids and getting married they have all increased. It has very little to do with affordability with the exception of maybe earning more in your 30s as apposed to your 20s. but the younger generation have other things on their mind when it comes to spending your money goes on things like the latest phone, car or a 3rd or 4th holiday this year. (Now the covid years have been an exception for holidays.)

You keep saying we are in a bubble I don't see it not yet anyways. I do see prices going up higher due to a supply issue that is not a bubble. Your drawing conclusions with comparisons to 08 well think of this comparison if the availability was the same as that of say 07 when we had a huge over supply and in 07 prices were still increasing if we had that oversupply differential now prices would not be going up - well thats my opinion. Hopefully they can build enough houses to prove my theory.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074498#Comment_118074498

I never said I agreed with the practice , just stating how it is and I couldn't agree more with you with regard to what should happen if someone cant afford to pay, the only thing is that is out of step with our left leaning political and social sphere in the country and anyone not towing the line or stating anything different is open to all kinds of criticism.

Mic 1972

In case anyone is trying to buy to let for long term leasing with the Counsil, apparently the plan is being phased out.

Co Meath has phased out the programme. When i spoke to Co Dublin this morning they said that they are going to phase it out too and have already stopped taking apartments

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074554#Comment_118074554

I think considering the real cost of any fall in prices after inflation is very wise.

I am not buying the transitory inflation argument and think we're in for a bout of sustained inflation.

The most interesting aspect of this will be interest rates, rising inflation will place central banks in between a rock and a hard place. My own view is they will have to raise rates sooner or later.

Cyrus

Speaking of greystones am I missing something or is this not relatively reasonable value ?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/burlington-lodge-victoria-road-greystones-co-wicklow-a63av82/4530648

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118077470#Comment_118077470

Went to see this thinking it looked crazy underpriced based on the advert (was up at €1m in 2020 and thought it would make that now). Really didn’t like it. Getting in and out of the driveway is an accident waiting to happen, the house feels cheap inside but definitely biggest factor is the dart line is literally a 10 feet from the bedroom window with a clear view into the garden.

Still suprised it hasn’t sold as there was 30+ people viewing it. But the advert definitely flatters it.

I also thought this one looked incredibly underpriced

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/linden-lodge-killincarrig-delgany-co-wicklow-a63-f720/4541673

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078208#Comment_118078208

I was googling this property and found an interesting article on it from 2006. Built in 2002 and was on the market asking for €1.65m when the article was published.

https://www.businesspost.ie/legacy/wicklow-home-in-walk-in-condition-69b16acc

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078495#Comment_118078495

Yeah the premium end of the market is still a mile off where it was in Celtic Tiger times. Before it became a basket case full of headcases, ThePropertyPin had some decent material on it. There was a very good piece showing how the best houses in D4/D6 fell on average 75%+ from 07-11. Always makes me laugh when people say that the best locations will keep their value through economic downturns. It's the complete opposite in reality.

House we're buying, the owners paid 550k more for it in early 2000s and had it listed for €1.1m over current price in 07.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070211#Comment_118070211

This was a great article over the weekend, among others. I was almost surprised to see it in the IT given how strong it was against the lobbyists (e.g. Pat Farrell and his IIP lobby group - who is undoubtedly well connected with FF and FG; and clearly does a good job for those interests he represents). Eoin Burke Kennedy likely got an email or two from aggrieved vested interests after that article as possibly the IT editor did as well but it is a vital article in a market which has been tilted to big corporate interests for a number of years now.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118035619#Comment_118035619

906 available, 9 days later, showing for me in "Dublin (county)" on Daft.ie. As a renter, I am grateful to be in a decent place right now as the options for moving to a decent place that is somewhat affordable are greatly curtailed from this time last year. Not an enviable position to be looking for a decent rental at the moment - I actually have a friend who moved back home when the lease was up on the house they were renting and the landlord was moving back in, as they could find nothing habitable with two bedrooms despite their budget being up to €2300 pm and being in their 30s - a horrible and humiliating thing to have to move home to the parents in your 30s and not good for our society.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-council-to-seek-exemption-from-plan-to-end-long-term-leasing-of-social-housing-1.4711199

 

Dublin City Council is to seek a derogation from Government policy to continue using long-term leasing deals with private developers for social housing.

The Government’s Housing for All plan published last month commits to ending the practice of leasing social housing, in favour of the ownership of homes by local authorities and housing bodies.

The city council had already committed to leasing more than 400 social homes this year. However, it planned to ramp this up by another 2,500 over next year and 2023.

Senior council housing officials are now to seek talks with the Department of Housing to secure a “dispensation” to allow the council to continue the “judicious” use of leasing in certain circumstances, particularly where it needs to clear old flats for regeneration.

Farcical and incompetence at the level of Dave Dinnigan (the same Dave Dinnigan who claimed that they were being too hard on themselves when it came to criticising DCC's delivery of social housing, even when confronted with figures of Dublin City Council directly building 90 social homes in 2019 and 124 in 2020), Owen Keegan etc. in Dublin City Council that they would push back against the government's plan to phase out councils entering into these bad value leases. However, what this push back shows is that there is more fighting against the Housing For All strategy and the government giving in to the arguments against aspects of it mean it is going to fail. SF must be laughing at the total inability of the government to treat the crisis with the same urgency as covid as is needed - they are soaring in popularity and this will continue. Our last 20 years will go down the drain when SF get in, not because of SF, but because we made no effort to build a sustainable society and economy that worked for the people, which is what lead to SF getting in. It feels like a slow motion car crash.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074907#Comment_118074907

I believe the lack of repossessions was to protect the banks rather than the inhabitants, an extension of NAMA so to speak. Hardly a left leaning ideology.

Sourcing social and affordable at the most expensive price is more about feathering the nests of the super wealthy rather than solving an issue and achieving bang for buck

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074409#Comment_118074409

A tin of beans, buttered toast/baked potato and some sausages is a nutritionally sound, delicious and budget friendly dinner that costs around €2 per dinner to put together once you have the bread, butter, spuds bought in bulk. I will not have you tarnish it by referencing it to the Baby Boomer war era of the 1980s.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074885#Comment_118074885

What's happening in Dublin is a rather loose definition of urban sprawl. More than half the people working there live outside the county. Is it Dublin City or Leinster city.

Housing and childcare would capture the entirity of 2 median salaries in Dublin. Maybe that's not a detterent to having children. Some would disagree I suspect same for the increased age for ftb. Add in the high tax rates when you go over median wage and the situation is rather bleak. This is at a time of close to peak prosperity.

The system is awash with money and those that pay high taxes (citizens) have to chase investment funds paying 0 tax, have access to 0% rates and their risk underwritten with citizens taxes long into the future in order to meet housing need. Can you not see how that scenario leads to a bubble

I'll deal with your 2 average earners affordability metric later with research from the LDA. It's an annual argument and time to put it to bed

Villa05

interview with the LDA chief exec., John Coleman

There remit appears to be almost entirely affordable cost based housing.

He breaks household income into deciles. The top third its envisaged can afford there housing need. The bottom third are covered by council and subsidies.

John claim the middle third is not served by the market and not supported by any subsidies.

The income range of the middle third household is between 45 and 80k. This is someway of the so called average couple on average wages and I would hope that they have done more research into this than anyone else

The remit of the LDA appears to be to provide housing solutions at affordable rates for this section

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/business-podcast/inside-business-with-ciaran-hancock-turbo-charging-the-affordable-housing-sector-land-development-agency-ceo-john-coleman-1.4705711

The system up to now was to source housing at the price paid by the upper third decile. This increases the price in this market and consequently reduces the number of households that can afford there housing need. This eventually leads to collapse of the housing market and that will pull the economy down with it.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out and if its enough

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078541#Comment_118078541

the demise of the property pin is sad, there was some excellent analysis and sources of information on that site once upon a time.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079833#Comment_118079833

I still use the search facility to find out information about houses, roads, areas...although it is becoming increasingly out of date.

On the plus side, if you believe George Soros (wink wink nudge nudge) is conspiring with Wuhan scientists to reshape the plant then it's an amazing source of information.

Villa05

First time buyers pushed out of the new homes market despite ftb grant

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/first-time-buyers-squeezed-out-by-high-prices-lack-of-stock-and-competition-40987466.html

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078851#Comment_118078851

So you think allowing someone stay in an asset where the loan is not being paid to the bank for 10 years+ is protecting the bank , really can you explain this. ?? I dont see any upside for the bank. This is to protect the FAMILY HOME and its as left leaning as it can get. Protect the banks will you come off it. Your trying to spin that this has gone so far left its actually gone around the globe and is now a policy from the right side of the political sphere. You have to look at who benefits , who pays. The bank are left with a loan that is not being serviced and an asset they cannot access. The family dont pay anything and get to live in the house. I dont see how this is right leaning in any way shape or form.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078996#Comment_118078996

Well as I pointed out this is what happens when your population grows by over 10% in the space of a decade and government make decisions to stop building housing? I don't see why you or anyone else think Dublin should be any different to any other major city in the world, can you show me one main city that does not have a premium placed on its property when compared with the rest of the country? You only need to look at London , Paris, New York where people travel in their droves from outside to work where the action is.

I am with you with regards to how high we pay for childcare we also pay a lot for our PS, our Welfare and all of that is based on our tax take but people do have the choice not to have kids and some could live in a less expensive area. So the averages I put up where country wide there are areas that are cheaper if you want to pay less to live.

Once again I agree with you with regards to investment funds vs private citizens. I am not sure if I had it on this thread it may have be been another, but I believe people should pay for rent/mortgage, childcare and any other necessities like food, clothes out of your pay before you get taxed and even the field. I think we agree on a lot of things I just think you may be confusing a supply problem with a bubble but we wont really be able to prove it as most bubbles are only labelled after they have burst..

I mean you still never answered the premise of if we had the same over supply now as we did back at the start of 07 would prices be as high? I don't think they would be.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080278#Comment_118080278

We had a very long thread about how the inevitable repossessions would crash the market further around the time prices hit the floor. The reason repossessions never happened on any scale is bcos of the damage it would do to banks, NAMA, government.

I suspect it would have significant cost on the state had they to assume the cost of housing repossessed families.

Agree its not ideal and a big part of dysfunction in the market, but I dont think it was driven by leftist ideology rather a cloak to disguise real intentions

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080659#Comment_118080659

Do not fool yourself the government made this the most expensive bailout ever (if carlsberg did bailouts) your saying the government made a decision to stop banks from prepossessing houses in order to try and stop the property market from dropping by over 50/60% after 08, prices did hit the floor and so instead of housing people who had homes repossessed they decided lets leave them in the house and lets pay out 64Billion for the broken banks. Banks were broken to the point that 2 of them are leaving (ulster bank and KBC) due to the legacy of this, both AIB and BOI are still owned in part by the state. They set up NAMA in order to keep distressed property off the book a vehicle to allow for distressed assets to be sold at a discount - This seems counter intuitive to you saying they allowed people to stay in their house to save money?.

So your argument doesn't hold water as everything you are trying to spin that by letting people stay in their house in the governments eyes would help avoid such things as the economy crashing, property prices crashing, the banks all being banjaxed and the government borrowing billions to the point the IMF were at the door. This all happened and you think that by allowing people stay in their home instead of repossessing going on this should of stopped all of the above happening? As I say its not hard to look at Ireland's political sphere and understand the majority of all the political parties are to the left this has been the case for decades. There is no real alternative on the right. The decision to allow people stay in a house without paying a mortgage is without equivocation part of the left leaning narrative that FF/FG/Labour and the Greens have been spinning for 2 decades.

bleaks

Genuine question - with the amount of HAP families to be accommodated pretty much nulling the supply of new builds the Govt has promised, is there anything whatsoever to suggest property prices will stop increasing at their current rate in the short to medium term? Would you think a lot of people are waiting until the new year to put their properties up on the market?

Villa05

Arrears are big business these days, the white collar professions are gorging on the returns.

Has it escaped your notice that politicians from the party largely responsible for the mess are integral to this new unfortunately booming sector.

Like every boom budst cycle are quids in on the way up and down

Profit both ways, Happy days

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081138#Comment_118081138

Bleaks a loaded question if ever there was one. Anyone advising you on this does not know unless they are Nostradamus reincarnated. No one knows anyone telling you differently is a spoofer. You can only look at data from other areas and make a guess. If I was looking to buy now I would be looking at the following data sets for the last 5 years and keeping an eye on it for the next couple of years.

Money in Irish savings accounts.

How low interest rates are.

Minimum wage

Inflation

The rate of immigration into and out of Ireland.

The rate of deaths vs births.

Mortgage applications vs mortgage draw downs over the last couple of years.

Sinn Fein getting into power and promising housing for everyone.

Immigration laws cutting the time taken from having undocumented migrants to being legally able to work and live here from 8 years to 4 months.

How much longer vultures can snap up property without any regulation

How much longer the government are behind the curve when building and supplying social housing

The amount of property available for sale and rent.

Rental prices.

All of the above would be impacting on either the supply, demand or access to credit: all 3 are the fundamentals of a person being able to afford a house. In My Opinion (and take that with a big note of caution and do not make any decisions based on this) I cant see prices coming down for the next 5 years, they may not continue to go up in that time I reckon another 2/3 years of slower price rises and 2/3 years of them staying constant.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081227#Comment_118081227

Have you any data on the arrears and how much third party people are making from this??

So you think now that the government allow people stay in their homes without paying a mortgage so that white collar can gorge out of their misfortune.

OK I think you may be the man to find out all the people who killed Kennedy

You still have not answered my question with regards to the hypothetical of if we had an oversupply of housing stock in 2021 like 2007 would prices be rising still?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081462#Comment_118081462

Sorry, the lack of repossessions was policy to prevent flooding of the market. Like many other things it was allowed to get out of control.

Michael Noonan when asked if he was concerned about the pace of inflation in house prices replied that he felt they should rise by a little bit more.

With regard to oversupply in 07/08. To what extent had we an oversupply.

Was it more an issue of building in the wrong place, which the market appears to be doing again, or at least demand is pushed out to these areas for affordability reasons

Was it a result of migration figures reversing due to the economic shock. Is an economic shock likely again after the longest bull run in history with asset valuations at multiples of historic norms.

When the provision of housing is left to the private sector, I think it's impossible for supply and demand to be at equilibrium. There has to be state involvement in providing supply at different price points. Stoking demand makes the situation worse

If supply was >= demand now, prices would be lower and rents much lower

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084091#Comment_118084091

Tbh, even though I tend to favour free markets to solve problems in a lot of cases, I don't think that's really ever going to be really possible with housing. There has to be some degree of central planning with housing, for the simple fact that it has big effects on common goods and services. Government are going to have to provide goods and services for people living in whatever places get built (schools, utilities, infrastructure, green space, etc.), and ideally these things should be put in place before more people start moving into these areas.

That said, government interfering in the market in terms of pricing (whether its giving tax breaks, subsidies, setting price controls) etc. only seems to have bad consequences in the long term, with the possible exception of some regulations on things like the salary-to-mortgage limit that curb excess risk lenders are willing to take on.