Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117932136#Comment_117932136

I think SF are sh!tting themselves.

They are terrified of getting into poer and having to do something constructive.

Moaning for a living will get you so far, and has worked for them while in opposition. They are screwed if they are in government.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117923879#Comment_117923879

It took several centuries of religious war to solidify the concept of the separation of church and state, at least in Western nations. Maybe, at some point in the future, there will be another Westphalian moment and the concept of the separation of economy and state will come to pass.

I myself have given up on a political solution to the above. The state is, in my eyes, beyond the pale. Even if every single political party were replaced tomorrow, what would change? Behind the politicians, there are legions of bureaucrats who are at best simply interested in feathering their own nests or, even worse, ideologues hell-bent on enforcing some utopian pipe-dream. Senior civil servants have enormous sway over policy, and they don't serve terms...

However, what's likely to happen in the next election is that the current "right leaning" collection of neo-liberals and globalists will be replaced with a so called "left-leaning" collection of the same. All that is likely to happen is more welfare, more pay for public workers, "tax the rich" mantra and of course, social housing delivered through investment funds.

One may ask, where will the money come from? The answer is simple: fiat currency funny-money. This will only perpetuate inflation and kick mountains of debt down the road to younger generations. Never mind being financially bankruptcy; this is a crisis of ethics.

Browney7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929617#Comment_117929617

Not to get political and defend the party with a dubious reputation and drag thread off topic but did you even read the article you linked on homelessness? The 20k and 8k numbers and wholly incomparable due to the metric they are capturing and you're being disingenuous equating the two.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117933040#Comment_117933040

I did read the article and the rates are the rates and my argument was not just about homelessness I sent you on links for other factors relating to the housing/property and showed that up north house prices are going up and rents are going up and this is all due to what ladies and gentlemen?? ding ding ding a lack of supply! The exact same problem we have in the south. Yet people down here think Sinn Fein are the 2nd coming of the Messiah when you only have to look north and take note of how bad they are doing up there. Look they may be better than the current shower, I am simply pointing out that until they walk the walk down here I will out them for being nothing more than a talking shop and point to the proof of where they are in power and mismanaging the north just as badly as FF/FG are here. When elections do come in people really need to ask where these spoffers plan to get the money to pay for what they are spouting as the money is simply not there to do what they are looking to do even a blind man can see this.

It also throws me back to a different discussion I had maybe a year ago on a different thread and I made the point that until politicians pockets are hit financially for not delivering on promises which have got them into power there will be absolutely no change to our political fortunes. You can bet your life if you told Mary, Lee or Mehole that if they dont deliver on what they promise they wont be getting any state pension you may actually see some action.

mcsean2163

This seems a lot for a 2 bed bungalow in Wicklow...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/32-delgany-park-greystones-wicklow-a63-ty32/4532005

No sign of propqueries crash going into October. The opposite in fact...

accensi0n

Even seems more like a one bed. I think the only back garden entrance is through the bedroom? So might have previously been a living room.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117934063#Comment_117934063

In fairness, it's lovely inside but €380k seems a lot for 63 sq metres.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938260#Comment_117938260

can’t believe they can away with calling that a 2 bed. The upstairs coupe barely be classed a habitable space. A young child’s play area maybe, at best

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938290#Comment_117938290

Meanwhile in China.

https://youtu.be/ibVW8t3qNMQ

Unless China and Europe are completely different, things are going to change soon.

Every time I think we're at the peak in Ireland, there's something new that floors me but 380 for a 2 bed in Wicklow seems very peaky...

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938403#Comment_117938403

china situation was inevitable, hopefully we arent too exposed, we ve had our 08, and it was enough to scare the sh1t out of us all

greenfield21

The everglades is nothing story. The only risk ahead in the short/medium term is the tax changes. No one knows how that works out. I would think there will be little change to anything with more cute hoorism from irish politicans.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938558#Comment_117938558

some respected commentators say differently! we still dont truly understand the complexity of our global financial and economic systems, and how they are all complexly interlinked, this will more than likely reveal more to us, expect something!

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938459#Comment_117938459

Castles made of sand.

We're the 3rd most indebted per capita in the world and the most indebted per capita with no control over its currency.

If we don't do something when the tide comes in we'll be washed away. Huge public and private exposure to property in China. China could be the wave. I hope not.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938687#Comment_117938687

once again, public debt has caused far few economic crisis, compared to private debt, globally, 08!

Credit and Debt USA.png

Ireland Debt.jpg

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938707#Comment_117938707

In china local government debt estimates are in the region of 6 trillion.

https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3149406/china-debt-concerns-mounting-beijing-shifts-attention-hidden

debt to GDP is not a great indicator in Ireland due to multinationals... Public debt is the reason that the Troika came to Ireland in the last recession.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938809#Comment_117938809

yup, but china used its public financial institutions where we used our private sector financial institutions, i.e. our banks, and done the exact same thing, encouraged and facilitated a credit fueled property boom, and surprise surprise, is now experiencing the same type of crash! believe it or not, the majority of all that private debt, in both the us and ireland, went straight into our property markets, pre 08, have a guess which debt ultimately caused the crash, public or private!

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938809#Comment_117938809

That is not totally true. Public debt was as much an issue. We had expanded public services during the boom. We were running a deficit during a period when the economy was booming. Our tax base was totally dependent on construction revenues,vat, stamp duty, capital gains tax etc so when the bust came we could not afford to run the country.

Public debt and deficits in public spending was as much of a problem as the bail out money for banks. Day to day public spending was totally out of control

Bubbaclaus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939326#Comment_117939326

We were running a budget surplus consistently up until 2008.

mcsean2163

Nope. At no point was debt reduced ...

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics/debt-projections

Increased by 3 billion in 2007

Bubbaclaus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940118#Comment_117940118

The link you shared shows our total national debt in 2006 being lower than 6 years earlier, not even factoring in inflation and the economy naturally growing which reduces debt in real terms.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117941723#Comment_117941723

It's easier to see in the tabular format on the same page.

2007 47 67%29%24%

2006 44 65%28%24%

2005 44 75%31%26%

2004 44 82%33%28%

2003 43 90%35%30%

2002 42 95%37%31%

2001 41 101%40%34%

2000 39

The above second column is government debt. Good point about inflation though.

Bubbaclaus

That's gross debt, national debt is the 3rd column.

Point remains that the government wasn't running a deficit and in fact had a budget surplus throughout the early 00s.

jill_valentine

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/house-prices-growing-twice-as-fast-outside-cities-in-covid-exodus-40891379.html

Lot of dramatic language in this but -

"In Stoneybatter, long a sought-after area for young professionals, REA Fitzgerald Chambers reports 100pc of its sales for the period were conducted on behalf of vendors who are moving out of Dublin."

- is fairly striking.

mariaalice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117944098#Comment_117944098

Surely that is a good thing in some ways, buying somewhere just because of it hipster vibes or gentrification is what causes some of the issues in Dublin.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117942625#Comment_117942625

i personally think its much easier to see in graphical terms, once again.....

Ireland Debt.jpg

as others have explained.....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117944098#Comment_117944098

I would imagine anyone who has been living and/or working in one of these tiny houses over lockdown, are dying to get out.

claustrophobic!!

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117944133#Comment_117944133

My bad, I was looking at General Government Debt.

Still think debt to GDP is not a useful metric. If we're in a recession government debt to GDP will soar and if multinationals exit due to energy issues etc. we'll have the Troika back in Dublin maybe worse.

We're walking an imprudent tightrope IMHO but that's it from me. Back to property.... Nothing jumping out for us and seems properties are gaping up past our budget ~1 million. Ah well, at least we're not paying rent😀

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117944432#Comment_117944432

some good points, but we re getting hung up on public debt again, its well proven now, its nothing to truly worry about, as it has caused far less economic issues and crashes, compared to private debt has, globally. but it is important to stress, public debt is also not problem free, we will need to carefully manage it going forward, but we need to embrace the perpetual deficit going forward, as we keep defaulting to a primarily private debt run economy, i.e. credit run, and this has now become extremely dangerous to do so, 08 being a perfect example of what happens in such situations.

yup gdp is an awful metric to measure our economies well being, also well documented, but it has its uses also, and yup, we need to do everything in our power to protect the economy now, in particular private sector businesses, its why i believe pup payments should remain to a degree, but thats really a conversation for another time. and id also agree to a degree with our energy needs, and its long term potential effects, but we re all under serious pressure on this front, im not currently convinced of our renewables plan, but again, a conversation for another day. i wouldnt be worrying to much about the troika, many of those folks are now actually openly admitting, their approach to dealing with 08 and its aftermath, has ultimately failed.

unfortunately our economies are always on a tightrope, but, another days work....

best of luck with the house hunt

Sunny Disposition

Three interesting reports this morning.

The Daft.ie one is particularly interesting, it forecasts strong demand for 30 years to come. I think that's too long to be making forecasts, but it is the way things are heading. Demographics are strong, we have immigration rather than emigration and a serious shortage of houses.

The REA one says there's a bit of an exodus from the cities. I wonder if given the other factors, the cities can still maintain the current prices, despite some people selling up. It's something that'll be interesting to see in the coming years.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938687#Comment_117938687

The debt you are eying isn't a sign or result of house prices, it's because the civil service pay and benefits are unsustainably generous and the sector is too large with too many employees. We are Greece.

But don't worry, according to experts public debt is nothing to worry about as the government can always just raise taxes. Along with the sheer unsustainability of impending tax rises to virtue signal about dealing with the climate emergency. Personally I think the experts are living in la la land and can stay and pay for it all, I don't intend to.