Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

fliball123

flexcon wrote: »

I’d say a third of those are not actually available. So many new builds are advertised but are sold out but they leave the ads up there. Supply is the primary issue.

Maybe but it would be safe to suggest that that third will include houses over and under the parameters I set out.

Yeah supply is a huge issue at the moment and people waiting on governments to fix this will be left waiting.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

I agree it requires a total change of mindset but it should not be aspirational. It just requires as somebody else said, a government with a backbone.

There are relatively simple solutions. But they are not easy politically.

One thing that really hit a nerve with me last night was regarding the objecting to strategic housing developments in this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/greater-financial-risk-for-litigants-in-judicial-reviews-outrageous-1.4612461

The section has been removed, perhaps at request of the individual. But in essence, there is some 77 year old man who is now Ireland's leading expert in High Court challenges to planning permissions. He has personally stopped up to 18k houses so far (I think, if I remember correctly) and is now advising others how to do the same. So in essence, one guy is responsible for depriving 18 thousand families from potentially having their own home whilst were in the middle of a "housing crisis". He was almost being lauded for his incredible skill, knowledge and expertise in the matter and was even noted as a "man of limited means" and this change would deprive him of the opportunity to continue doing this. And this was printed in a national newspaper.

Can you imagine a young lawyer putting their "considerable skill, knowledge & expertise" to the task of finding loopholes to expedite the eviction of 18k older people in arrears from their family home? You might actually be lynched if you were ever seen in public.

It really just hammered home the point to me that I've made before on this thread. The Irish psyche is - "We will protect your right to the family home til the ends of the earth, as long as you have one....but if you don't, well then F**k You"

Ace2007

DataDude wrote: »

One thing that really hit a nerve with me last night was regarding the objecting to strategic housing developments in this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/greater-financial-risk-for-litigants-in-judicial-reviews-outrageous-1.4612461

The section has been removed, perhaps at request of the individual. But in essence, there is some 77 year old man who is now Ireland's leading expert in High Court challenges to planning permissions. He has personally stopped up to 18k houses so far (I think, if I remember correctly) and is now advising others how to do the same. So in essence, one guy is responsible for depriving 18 thousand families from potentially having their own home whilst were in the middle of a "housing crisis". He was almost being lauded for his incredible skill, knowledge and expertise in the matter and was even noted as a "man of limited means" and this change would deprive him of the opportunity to continue doing this. And this was printed in a national newspaper.

Can you imagine a young lawyer putting their "considerable skill, knowledge & expertise" to the task of finding loopholes to expedite the eviction of 18k older people in arrears from their family home? You might actually be lynched if you were ever seen in public.

It really just hammered home the point to me that I've made before on this thread. The Irish psyche is - "We will protect your right to the family home til the ends of the earth, as long as you have one....but if you don't, well then F**k You"

There was leaflets dropped in the doors of a number of areas trying to raise 60k to bring a judicial review against a proposed development, and it stated that An Bord Pleanála lose 90 percent of the cases. That's a terrible record to have.

Ace2007

malistheman wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-1-glasnevin-oaks-glasnevin-dublin-11/3255533

This is up to 408k at the moment. 50% increase from what the owner paid for it back in 2017.

If they put the actual address of Finglas, i wonder would it be selling for a much:rolleyes:

comparing some pics of what it was like previously, the owner probably put in 20/30k alone, that you can see, but it's still mad increase, but like i mentioned it it was Finglas address, would it be selling for that much - the apartments across the road have a Finglas address.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

One thing that really hit a nerve with me last night was regarding the objecting to strategic housing developments in this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/greater-financial-risk-for-litigants-in-judicial-reviews-outrageous-1.4612461

The section has been removed, perhaps at request of the individual. But in essence, there is some 77 year old man who is now Ireland's leading expert in High Court challenges to planning permissions. He has personally stopped up to 18k houses so far (I think, if I remember correctly) and is now advising others how to do the same. So in essence, one guy is responsible for depriving 18 thousand families from potentially having their own home whilst were in the middle of a "housing crisis". He was almost being lauded for his incredible skill, knowledge and expertise in the matter and was even noted as a "man of limited means" and this change would deprive him of the opportunity to continue doing this. And this was printed in a national newspaper.

Can you imagine a young lawyer putting their "considerable skill, knowledge & expertise" to the task of finding loopholes to expedite the eviction of 18k older people in arrears from their family home? You might actually be lynched if you were ever seen in public.

It really just hammered home the point to me that I've made before on this thread. The Irish psyche is - "We will protect your right to the family home til the ends of the earth, as long as you have one....but if you don't, well then F**k You"

Whilst I totally agree with your point re the Irish psyche re f*ck you if you don’t have a house, in fairness much of the above relates to the Aarhus convention and an E.U. directive.

Governments hands are tied on that.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Whilst I totally agree with your point re the Irish psyche re f*ck you if you don’t have a house, in fairness much of the above relates to the Aarhus convention and an E.U. directive.

Governments hands are tied on that.

Yeah not blaming government on that one, more just observing why I don't think there's any real political will to do much on some of the obvious and sensible suggestions you made in a previous post. There a massive cohort of people who don't want houses built and who don't want houses to be more affordable. Probably be another 5-10 or so before that balance shifts strongly in terms of voter base.

jill_valentine

cnocbui wrote: »

I agree with him. I bought a half finished house and finished it myself as I couldn't have afforded it in a finished state, and that was nowhere near Dublin. I made significant sacrifices in order to save enough to get on the property ladder.

People mostly seem to want a turn key new build at a rundown fixer-upper price.

You forgot to mention, as you often do, that you did this two decades ago, in a completely different universe where it was possible to buy in Lucan for 100k, and that it's no longer possible in most cases now due to the post recessionary risk appetite policies lenders have implemented.

And I know you know that because it's been explained repeatedly and at length, several spins before on the avocado iphone carousel - https://www.boards.ie/mobile/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058146177&page=162

PropBuyer101

jill_valentine wrote: »

several spins before on the avocado iphone carousel

thats a great line!!! :pac:

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah not blaming government on that one, more just observing why I don't think there's any real political will to do much on some of the obvious and sensible suggestions you made in a previous post. There a massive cohort of people who don't want houses built and who don't want houses to be more affordable. Probably be another 5-10 or so before that balance shifts strongly in terms of voter base.

You’re right about political will. Of all the numbers bandied around re housing problems, the most important are voter demographics.

You only need to read some of the posts in this thread to understand why FFG are happy to try and expand the home-owning classes by shared equity etc to increase the prices.

The numbers will change sooner or later, and IMO will have changed sufficiently by the next GE.

Instead of things like Aarhus, we should be looking at the low hanging fruit to gauge the political will.

As one poster in another thread pointed out, as long as government are dragging their heels on enforcing the Airbnb rules, they have no interest in improving things, and it’s a clear signal that it is business as usual.

cnocbui

jill_valentine wrote: »

You forgot to mention, as you often do, that you did this two decades ago, in a completely different universe where it was possible to buy in Lucan for 100k, and that it's no longer possible in most cases now due to the post recessionary risk appetite policies lenders have implemented.

And I know you know that because it's been explained repeatedly and at length, several spins before on the avocado iphone carousel - https://www.boards.ie/mobile/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058146177&page=162

More like 2.5 decades ago, in another country, when the interest rate on my loan was 9.6% and my salary was about €13,300 pa.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

You forgot to mention, as you often do, that you did this two decades ago, in a completely different universe where it was possible to buy in Lucan for 100k, and that it's no longer possible in most cases now due to the post recessionary risk appetite policies lenders have implemented.

And I know you know that because it's been explained repeatedly and at length, several spins before on the avocado iphone carousel - https://www.boards.ie/mobile/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058146177&page=162

Yeah and back when wages were no where near as high as now and people left and emigrated when they couldnt buy meaning a lot less demand and upward pressure on price. Then you had the all time high interest rates going close to 20% odd on what you borrowed not to mention the staggering near 70% income tax you paid on your wage, throw in the the social norms where the wife was supposed to be the home makers and nothing more so you had one wage to do it all on but yeah it was a completely different universe but it was still just as hard to buy in that time as well.

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

More like 2.5 decades ago, in another country, when the interest rate on my loan was 9.6% and my salary was about €13,300 pa.

And the top tax rate was 48% with PRSI and leavies on top

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

I agree with him. I bought a half finished house and finished it myself as I couldn't have afforded it in a finished state, and that was nowhere near Dublin. I made significant sacrifices in order to save enough to get on the property ladder.

People mostly seem to want a turn key new build at a rundown fixer-upper price.

While extra regulation has increased housing costs the two other costs that have been added are level of finish on new houses as well as insulation and technology to achieve A rating.

The investment groups and other simply paly on property market in Ireland same as on stock market
There is no supply or demand issues
The property price simply rising enough to make money on it that why they buy it
When recession will start they will drop property on market trying sell asap
Any of this property at today price will not pay back with today rent even in 20 years time
Once recession will started and prices will collapse this property will cost nothing
Because nobody will have money buy it and nobody will rent it because unemployment will push tens of thousands out of the country
The main players on property market are bulk buyers the other small ones are simply chancers which grab them chance using moment
The bigger the Whoom
The louder the Boom

I could imagine how many thousands will lose them money invested to those property funds
That one of the reasons why you could forget about inflation which never will happen
Millions will lose them money on stock markets,ETFs,etc
Today world come step in step as in 1920s,everything copy paste from those years to now just in global size.

growleaves

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah and back when wages were no where near as high as now and people left and emigrated when they couldnt buy meaning a lot less demand and upward pressure on price. Then you had the all time high interest rates going close to 20% odd on what you borrowed not to mention the staggering near 70% income tax you paid on your wage, throw in the the social norms where the wife was supposed to be the home makers and nothing more so you had one wage to do it all on but yeah it was a completely different universe but it was still just as hard to buy in that time as well.

That was more like 40 years ago. Being able to afford it all on one income, with your wife being able to raise your children, hinders your point rather than helps it imo.

Irish Mortgage Interest Rates since 1975

• 1975 11.25%
• 1976 12.5%
• 1977 13.95%
• 1978 14.15%
• 1979 14.15%
• 1980 14.15%
• 1981 16.25%
• 1982 16.25%
• 1983 13.0%
• 1984 11.75%
• 1985 13%
• 1986 12.5%
• 1987 12.5%
• 1988 9.25%
• 1989 11.4%
• 1990 12.37%
• 1991 11.95%
• 1992 13.99%
• 1993 13.99%
• 1994 7.49%
• 1995 7.00%
• 1996 6.75%
• 1997 6.90%
• 1998 5.85%
• 1999 5.60%
• 2000 6.09%
• 2001 6.09%
• 2002 4.70%
• 2003 4.20%
• 2004 3.49%
• 2005 3.65%
• 2006 4.86%
• 2007 5.46%
• 2008 5.86%
• 2009 4.16%
• 2010 4.02%
• 2011 4.42%
• 2012 4.33%
• 2013 4.38%
• 2014 4.2%
• 2015 4.05%
• 2016 3.61%
• 2017 3.44%
• 2018 3.21%
• 2019 3.02%
• 2020 2.92%

growleaves

Yeah and back when wages were no where near as high as now

I can't get house price to income ratio for the 1980s but current price to income ratio is already at Celtic Tiger levels. I suspect it was lower in the 1980s.

Given the wage stagnation from 2008 onwards, partially recovered now, and assuming you are talking about wages in relation to inflationary and deflationary forces and accounting for currency change (from Punt to Euro) it is not obvious that wages have risen except in nominal value.

combat14

looks like wages will have to go up here massively to cover all the price inflation and property price rises we are now experiencing

combat14

combat14 wrote: »

looks like wages will have to go up here massively to cover all the price inflation and property price rises we are now experiencing

By the way they importing cheap labor from Brazil ( because most Eastern europeans came back home ) nobody interested bring wages up.

Hubertj

[Deleted User] wrote: »

By the way they importing cheap labor from Brazil ( because most Eastern europeans came back home ) nobody interested bring wages up.

Any evidence of this and for what industries? Or are you making it up again?

rob316

combat14 wrote: »

looks like wages will have to go up here massively to cover all the price inflation and property price rises we are now experiencing

The price of everything will need to rise to pay for that. Unless the government can make a ballsy move and tax the bollox out of private property investors, the bubble won't burst. We are getting close to the point where a FTB has no hope of buying even in areas they don't want.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

Any evidence of this and for what industries? Or are you making it up again?

Long time ago I heard ( Newstalk ) that in Wexford or Wicklow meat factory been closed because all brazilians had Covid
The problem was that 2 brazilians had one room and when one was working day shift the other was sleep in same bed before night shift

I also remember day when there was debates in parlament about cheap labor and 2000 brazilians was on way to country when country was on lockdown .

I also was working with some of them on building sites in 2017 were they was getting 10.50 per hour when guys was on 12.50 to 14.50

In face of those who say that labor is not enough and property prices rising due with high cost of labor

Just quick look over google

I go into work feeling scared’: Migrant meat plant workers tell their stories
Three Brazilian workers in Irish factories speak about poor conditions during Covid-19

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/i-go-into-work-feeling-scared-migrant-meat-plant-workers-tell-their-stories-1.4329344

As reported here a week ago, not only were work permits being issued to people coming from outside of the EU, but a large number had arrived in the first weeks of January from Brazil. Yes, from the country with the “deadly new strain” of the Covid virus.


https://gript.ie/100-cases-in-two-meat-factories-are-we-importing-covid-along-with-cheap-labour/

The population of Brazil over 200 millions so it should enough for long in Ireland low pay industry

The all what Ireland stand on is getting money from is Cheap Labor,Tax free zone for Multinationals and Building industry

When this Bubble will explode the sht will be everywere.

Mad_maxx

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah and back when wages were no where near as high as now and people left and emigrated when they couldnt buy meaning a lot less demand and upward pressure on price. Then you had the all time high interest rates going close to 20% odd on what you borrowed not to mention the staggering near 70% income tax you paid on your wage, throw in the the social norms where the wife was supposed to be the home makers and nothing more so you had one wage to do it all on but yeah it was a completely different universe but it was still just as hard to buy in that time as well.

it wasnt just as hard to buy then , a single income times five could buy a house , that interest rates were much higher doesnt change this

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

it wasnt just as hard to buy then , a single income times five could buy a house , that interest rates were much higher doesnt change this

You will never sell 100 houses 1 million each
To 80 buyers with 1 million in hand
And 20 with 500 000
You could play with rates and rules which will let borrow more but the more they will borrow the more price will rise !
Essential Classical Bubble ! With same End !

The other side the more people will have pay bigger mortgage the less they will have for car and wardrobe
The less they will have money for car and wardrobe the less company which selling cars will earn and the less cabinetmaker will earn
The less they will earn the more of them will not afford buy house !
Other words when you spend more for mortgage the less you have for food.
And then its starts from to.

The main problem on property market I think is rising poverty and unemployment when people cant afford buy house
And the international investors which play stock market games on property market

Revolution 1917

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

There is no supply or demand issues
The property price simply rising enough to make money on it that why they buy it
When recession will start they will drop property on market trying sell asap

In theory that's true. However, what you're overlooking is that even if property prices collapsed in the morning, most of the investor-bought properties were bought as they were being leased to the council/state for 25 years.

Those houses, as a result, can't appear back for sale again (not for 25 years, anyway).

EDIT: That said, if the govt. came out and banned the Councils from engaging in these leases, or made them less profitable by only offering 50% of market rent to the investors, and approved a vacant house levy, you'd see a sudden flood of property back onto the market, as anything that hadn't yet been leased to the Council is suddenly worthless to the investors.

The argument that people cannot afford to live where they want to, in Dublin anyway, is totally moot, because there are thousands of people who.cannot afford to live in Dublin already being housed by The state in those places.
So, actually, the state are pushing people out of city areas, to house people who cannot house themselves there instead.

hometruths

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117610873#Comment_117610873

There are 1000s of people who cannot afford to live in Dublin, living in Dublin, and not paying their mortgage.

It's crazy that we are saying to FTBs if you can't afford it, suck it up and move to Cavan, whilst simultaneously saying to mortgage holders, if you can't afford it, that's OK, you don't have to pay it, we'll work something out.

Welcome back all BTW! Hope everyone enjoyed the break!

mcsean2163

We've been in a bidding war with our latest bid now 115,000 above the opening bid. Everywhere I look in Dublin apartments are going up and there's 21% unemployment.

Do not understand the market at all. Great to see the thread back up😄 with emojis 🏳️‍🌈😭🎉. Are we bonkers bidding up the house?🧐

MacronvFrugals

The infamous Mullen Park in Maynooth will now be sold to owner occupiers and the council

https://twitter.com/DarraghOBrienTD/status/1415370608427290625?s=20

cnocbui

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117611829#Comment_117611829

This is not a phenomenon unique to ireland, it seems to be pretty much global in the developed world. Ireland's property price growth rate is minimal compared to other English speaking markets, so I would say you aren't mad.

Beigepaint

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117612370#Comment_117612370

A sense of stress and pressure from the embattled minister’s tweet. I suppose the recent poll numbers have made him worried.

I’d love to know what his advisors are telling him.

Here’s an idea Darragh: Until 2030, investors may build new builds. Investors may not buy new builds. In 2028, assess if we need to extend past 2030 or not.