Are we excited yet?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121874716#Comment_121874716

Not disagreeing fully but technically we can use just about anything to "buy" anything.

You could buy a house with it and it shouldn't be problem value wise as the current transaction times are about two hours, so any value change would be constrained and the buyer and seller would likely accept that the value can vary rapidly.

Indeed it's possible, doesn't mean it's feasible in general.

Sitting on BTC incurs speculative risk, buying/selling incurs risk. Exactly the same as buying something with e.g. shares. This is why the public/business doesn't do it.

If an enthusiast wants to go through hurdles to buy/sell something in crypto or shares or assets, cool, but most of the time it's typically easier and makes far more sense to just to buy in cash.

Stable-coins are a different thing altogether, and indeed they can be used as currency (if the underlying mechanism doesn't implode like Terra/Luna)

HGVRHKYY

I can't imagine cashing out completely when we're just at the previous ATH levels and we're approaching the next halving in a month AND these ETFs are accumulating hundreds of millions of dollars worth of BTC every day. There's a growing supply crunch and if these ETFs maintain even a quarter of their buying pressure (which is likely as Fink recently recommended a 1-2% allocation afaik?) it'll sail past $100k probably within the year. But of course it's smart to not get too greedy

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121874402#Comment_121874402

As I said, you should do the maths. You might be surprised. But let me give you an idea: For the scenario I posted (buying at 15k, selling at 75k), later buying back in with a 20% drop means that person will be better off until it goes more than 4X that buyback price compared to the "hodler". Whereas buying back in at a 25% drop, the multiple is over 19.

What would you pay for a 1Y put option 25% OTM? Not cheap I'd guess

I'm also uncertain as to what you say "has never happened before"? A drop of 20% of it's value?????????

Norrie Rugger Head

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121875360#Comment_121875360

So there needs to be a collateral system which takes in one payment method and pays out the vendor's choosing.

There was a project like that but been radio silent and looks to be a bit of a rug pull in slow motion

byrne249

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121875485#Comment_121875485

Oh yea, I was very unclear. I was referring to the other posters assertion that it will drop 50% from here. I don't believe btc has fallen more than 20% after brushing the previous cycles ATHs in the past. Yes, contrary to popular wisdom, I am using past behaviour as an indicator of future behaviour.

I'm not quite sure I understand your example or are we just ships passing in the night. But if you pay a 20k cgt bill, you will only have 55k left so you cannot rebuy your 'whole coin' at 60k. I presume you are omitting the tax for the sake of the discussion and if that's the case then yes I can only agree with everything you said.

This specific situation I would be very cautious about selling now in the hope of buying lower. Like everyone else I was not expecting this run up this fast and was expecting some more higher lows, I even imagine some sort of sell the news event after the halving but I've learned to accept whatever this crazy rollercoaster decides to do and try not to second guess it

Unearthly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121874449#Comment_121874449

Smash through 70k it is booooom

erlichbachman

Great start to the week, Bitcoin being gobbled up, I really do think this is different now with Bitcoin. A lot of stable money in there now with etf and people unwilling to sell. Is just a question of at what point does scarcity really set in.

patsy_mccabe

Not being smart but, what would you say to people who buy in now and then it collapses? Sorry, we were wrong, it really was just a speculative bubble after all.

It has increased in dollar terms by 248% in just 12 months. Where is that extra "intrinsic value" coming from?

BKtje

Part of the value is that it is not the dollar (or any other inflation hit currency).

What is the intrinsic value of gold, apart from being pretty it has limited applications. Why does it have a 15T market cap? Someone decided it was worth that much and people are owling to pay for their slice. Most people who own gold don't hold it for its physical properties and most only hold it on paper.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879047#Comment_121879047

Where is that extra "intrinsic value" coming from?

Greater fool theory.

Like everyone else, I invest in crypto in the hopes that someone else will pay more. They only buy it from me in the hopes that someone else will pay more. Like rare baseball cards.

It taps into that need to own something rare, in this case digital trinkets with artificial scarcity. These trinkets are mostly solutions to problems that don't exist, but as mentioned are very good at cosplaying as some sort sort of future "financial" revolution, which is easy to market to low-info investors. And the other investors feed off them.

Greater fool theory squared.

mickdw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879047#Comment_121879047

As I small time investor, you would be a damn fool to buy in now. There may well be gains but the fall is coming so why buy now. If its worth buying now, surely it was worth buying at half the price before now.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879047#Comment_121879047

Don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, you want single digit steady returns on your investment then look elsewhere, there is an element of gambling in this but with the right information and a sound strategy then it is possible to multiply your money.

The intrinsic argument is over patsy, but discussion on the collapse of the crypto market is worthwhile I think, like the market is cyclical. From what I can see the last was caused by ftx Luna and three arrows for their own individual reasons. In that there is a belief that they prevented the real, or potential, ath from occurring, worth considering when attempting to forecast the next ath.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879266#Comment_121879266

I’m not an expert on the crypto market, I mostly just have tried to filter out the nonsense information on the internet and listen to those that are fairly grounded and have a logical reasoning for their predictions with a track record of reasonably accurate predictions, and from what I can gather this is only the beginning, at this point the market dictates that the alts have to catch up to keep pace with bitcoin, could be wrong of course but this appears to contradict your sentiment, it would seem by all accounts that not buying in now is foolish, buy exactly what is the only outstanding question.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879403#Comment_121879403

Indeed, to expand on the cyclical point, the market is only "cyclical" because, so far, people believe it is. It's almost 100% herd psychology.

If e.g. we hand a stock to an analyst, he can figure out the approximate market value of it. If we hand a crypto token to an analyst, or any analyst, they have no clue of it's value. None of us do. That's because there's little logic in the crypto market. So anything can be "worth" anything, hence the rollercoaster, hence the peaks and troughs and the very crude "cycles" of these herd movements. Which we all gamble on, for real money.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879487#Comment_121879487

I would disagree on your understanding of the cycle though not entirely, but it seems a bit lazy just to say it’s herd mentality or greater fool whatever, personally I’m more interested in the buying and selling aspect, when and where to buy in a cycle.

deadduck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879249#Comment_121879249

Does this idea apply to gold/silver too? As far as I can tell, their reason for having value are their rarity and difficulty to extract/produce. And of course, a hedge against inflation. Same as bitcoin, no?

Of course you can make jewellery too, and they are very useful in some electronics, but this isn't what gives it it's high value, it's the scarcity and it's (relative) immunity from deflation. in that case, Bitcoin seems the more appealing option, no?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879776#Comment_121879776

Similar concept, scarcity. However gold is used in everything from photography to computers and also used in jewellery and adornments (due to it's aesthetic qualities)

BTC, LTC, BCH, etc are not much more than artificially scarce digital numbers. The other value comes from their "separation" from the financial system, but as we've seen, they're ironically very tied to that financial system.

erlichbachman

https://twitter.com/AltcoinDailyio/status/1766868570078892368

Doxing Dohn here

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879658#Comment_121879658

Can disagree all you want, it's herd psychology.

Can you explain the value of e.g. Litecoin? Or BCH? You can't, no one can. It's simply a number down to the herd. A herd that can be notoriously fickle and illogical, e.g. the day that BTG was 51% attacked it went up in value 15%.

Why should blockchain "fuel" tokens be floated on the secondary market? If it's a product for clients that makes no sense. A lot of crypto makes no sense .. until you realise it's all about turning conjured digital tokens into real money. Then it all makes sense.

That's all we're doing. Right now, we're just trying to beat the herd.

endainoz

Delighted to see xrp flying today.

erlichbachman

Xrp and ada on the move

Dohnjoe

And LTC creaking upwards. Which hasn't done much in the last decade (2x 2013 ATH)

tommythecat

I've been hodling xrp and LTC since 2017! Come on baby! Nows my time! 🤣

deadduck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879848#Comment_121879848

Fair enough, but I would respectfully disagree to an extent. I would say that things have value when everyone (or maybe I should say 'enough' people) agree they do, that's it. Be that gold, baseball cards, crypto, etc.

But, to be honest, I expect we'll go around in circles on this, and potentially bring the thread down a path it's been too many times, so let's just enjoy all the green charts for now, we've been waiting long enough :)

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879848#Comment_121879848

If you dig into things they are not that simple. The tokens you mentioned are from previous cycles so people are investing as they are ‘established’. The technology has moved on though. Solana for example is undervalued. It’s very user friendly, fast (near instant) and has cheap transactions. The dexs there are fantastic.

Grumpypants

Intrinsic value is a weird thing to get hung up on. Just because you don't see the "value" that others do, doesn't mean it's not there.

No one saw the "value" in putting your date of birth, country and gender on your profile. But Facebook and Google did and they sold the data that people gave them for free for billions and billions of dollars.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879866#Comment_121879866

Never have I heard such nonsense. Echoes the same sentiments that resisted automobiles over horses!

The horse is here to stay but the automobile is a passing fad. - Advisor to Henry Ford's Lawyer

Your argument is like asking "Why buy BMW or Volkswagen or Toyota if Ford is already mass producing?" This is the standard of debate here.

Whatever was left of your mask has truly slipped off. You are as anti-crypto as they get and, frankly, I don't believe you have ever purchased, mined or held a single cent worth of crypto in your life.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880039#Comment_121880039

BTC, BCH and LTC aren't that different from each other.

I agree Solana is relatively good within the crypto sphere, but it's just another platform by crypto for crypto within a crypto sphere, all of which is based around turning digital tokens/coins into real money, whether for the developers, or us. Ultimately BTC with bells and whistles on.

Keep in mind the world isn't reliant on any of this stuff, as mentioned if it snapped out of existence tomorrow, you wouldn't notice any difference, everything would just run as normal. A bunch of people would lose money and a whole bunch of crypto firms, that are entirely reliant on exchanging their tokens for our money, would go out of business.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880207#Comment_121880207

There's no mask, I'm critical of crypto and have been for a long time. Step outside the bubble and many are. Most of it is total garbage. I've also defended crypto, you might new to this forum, but back in e.g. 2018 this forum had plenty of individuals claiming it would go to zero, which I never agreed with. In 2017 I was much more bullish on Ethereum and alts but since then I've seen where 99% of crypto projects go and yeah, let's just say it's always the same.

Obviously this is a crypto thread during a bull run, so naturally people don't want to hear it, they just want to enjoy the gains.

KilOit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879047#Comment_121879047

I wouldn't buy anything in the top 50 now. chance for x2 to x3 with a lot of downside but for fun if you are willing to lose money for chance of big gains i'd buy say €500 of sol and try your luck on shitcoins. 100x to be had if you are lucky, treat it as gambling though