Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Spudman_20000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040019#Comment_119040019

And what about the doom mongers and their outrageous predictions on cases and deaths, the affect that had on government policies and subsequently the impact on people's mental health, livelihoods and children's education? People are so focused on deaths with/from Covid, they've forgotten all other impacts from the last 2 years of Covid policies (not the disease itself).

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040019#Comment_119040019

Based on the data at the time, which was based on only testing people in hospital? Sorry, it was a nonsense figure then and its a nonsense figure now. If he estimated 20 deaths he would be hammered for it, overestimating impacted behaviour and policies too, so he should be hammered for that also.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040019#Comment_119040019

"based on the data at the time"...there is the crux of the issue in a nutshell. Any academic, or scientist, worth their salt would never carry-out a calculation based on such dynamic data. And if they did, they wouldn't announce it so publicly. Defend him all you like but McConkey was, and still is, a charlatan in my opinion. If I recall correctly, he made similar outlandish statements when the original SARS (or maybe it was MERS) virus was in the public eye.

72sheep

Noticeable how the Covid hard-liners have largely deserted this thread. Just because the blanket media coverage is over these cold-hearted fans of "great science" seem no longer care at all about granny (#wherethehellarethosehepafilters #longcovidisdeadly #keepgrandadbyanopenwindow). That rent-a-crowd-for-free mob have moved over to the other rings of the media circus: Ukraine (#yellowblueflag yay!), climate change (#saveallthepolarbears so cute!), or other... Makes the heart swell with pride ;-)

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040725#Comment_119040725

A truly bizarre post. Maybe they’ve ‘deserted the thread’ because life is back to normal and instead of being locked in their houses they’re out living their lives instead of continuing to argue with their computer screen.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040900#Comment_119040900

They're busy playing host/hostess to unvaccinated strangers staying in their spare rooms and holiday homes. #zelenskiyy

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040668#Comment_119040668

A rapidly evolving situation with answers being demanded by the public and by the need to inform policy? Where, pray tell, would you have drawn your numbers from, as an academic or scientist?

(Absolutely not a fan of the man, but posters are making it sound like the figures he provided were wildly outlandish.)

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041937#Comment_119041937

Because the figures he provided were quite clearly wildy outlandish...is it that difficult to understand? He predicted over 10 times the deaths we have had (which is a questionable figure it itself). He was wrong by an incredible magnitude, you don't need to defend it.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041937#Comment_119041937

"demanded by the public" - don't include me in that generalisation as I certainly never wanted to hear his doom-mongering message, and I would confidently bet that I'm not the only one. In fact, I would go so far as to say, the vast majority of the public could have done without his overly zealous bombast, and certainly didn't "demand" it I'd imagine.

As for informing policy, isn't that the job of public health experts, and NPHET - which McConkey isn't/wasn't a member of. I agree there was a need for figures, calculations, and modelling, but I take issue with the over-the-top, wildly inaccurate, worst-case-scenario approach of McConkey and his relish in delivering that message in the public sphere. What, pray tell, say you.

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042079#Comment_119042079

So what figures/modelling/calculations would you have done?

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042044#Comment_119042044

Absolutely he was very wrong, thankfully. And we can say that with confidence over two years later. The calculations you did at the time were obviously better - what did you base yours on?

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042145#Comment_119042145

Wow, nice retort. I'm not an infectious disease expert, but if I was I would be ashamed of myself for throwing about the figures McConkey did with such abandon.

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042266#Comment_119042266

You're not?! :o I thought everyone on this thread was an infectious disease expert?? Given how obviously incorrect people claimed to find McConkey's calculations which at least had some grounding in some sort of data...

"And how have you arrived at your results, Dr. Boardsie?"

"Why, I leapt into my Delorean, lubed up with optimism and freedom from responsibility, and plucked them from the deepest recesses of my colon. It's a foolproof technique - either we'll be lucky, or my results will be completely forgotten about by everyone."

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039925#Comment_119039925

‘Could’ being the operative word. So he was correct.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042449#Comment_119042449

A better attempt than your last response, I'll give you that. But, then again, you know what they say about sarcasm.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041937#Comment_119041937

This, in a dynamic situation with lots of unknowns you assume the worst case until more data becomes available, you then work on getting better data. It is literally crisis management 101. The CFR was high for a virus until the vaccine rollout occurred, it was not 2-3% but could have been 1% with inaction. The US has hit 0.3% even with a fast vaccine rollout.

Micky 32

Some serious zero covid zealouts f***kwits on Twitter. Awful abuse some people get from these diseased maniacs:

https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1524079241515741187?s=21&t=4n24OX19OK7kWCcK7T285Q

landofthetree

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-authorities-drop-mandatory-masks-on-planes-and-in-airports/

Great news

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045689#Comment_119045689

Huge caveats that it depends on,

1) The airlines policy.

2) The legislation in place at domestic government level that the carrier operates under.

Flights between Ireland and UK for example would only depend on the carriers policy.

Flights between Ireland and France for example you'd have to wear one under French law.

john why

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045770#Comment_119045770

What about Ireland and Italy? Thanks.

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045808#Comment_119045808

https://www.italia.it/en/covid19

The use of FFP2 masks remains mandatory in the following locations:

• airplanes
• ships and ferries used for interregional transport services
• High Speed, Intercity, Intercity Night, and Interregional Trains
• buses connecting more than two regions
• buses/coaches used for chartered services with driver
• local and regional public transport
• indoor performances in theatres, cinemas, concert halls, entertainment venues and live music
• indoor sports events

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044161#Comment_119044161

Certainly at the start it was looking like 2-3%. And this was primarily because for the most part the majority of the cases that we were aware of were bad to critical. People with mild symptoms (or no symptoms) were in general not being tested, therefore not being counted, therefore the only people we knew about were really, really sick.

This is borne out in the worldometer graph:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#case-outcome

At the start, CFR is super high because you have like 100 cases and they're all really sick. Like, dying in the ICU sick, because nobody knew what was wrong with them. Then it plummets as you become aware of loads more cases, but these people aren't actually dying. There was also a small lull in case growth as China got on top of thing. Then it rose again as the virus spread and the world went, "Oh sh1t, loads of old people are dying at the moment and we've been writing them off as age-related pneumonia, but we should actually be testing them to see if it's Covid"

As that graph shows, 2-3% CFR for pre-Omicron strains without vaccination, seems about right. It's where the data was settling around the start of 2021, and basically paused around 2.2% in August when Delta kicked in.

So while McConkey was not wrong to use that number, he was probably wrong to assume an 80% infection rate in Ireland at that time. Covid was not that infectious in March 2020, and we even knew that. The earlier strains seemed to start to falter around the 60% vaccination rate. So an 80% infection rate was never a thing. Omicron, of course, changed that. It'll go well beyond 80% if it hasn't already.

You can then see a very clear cliff that the CFR falls off in January as Omicron kicks in. The global cumulative CFR dropped by 30% at the start of 2022. Which tells us how mild Omicron is in comparison. Between 1st January 2022 and today, there have been 807,000 deaths worldwide on the back of 229 million cases. That's a CFR of 0.3%.

For the entire rest of the pandemic, the CFR is 1.9%

If Omicron kept its infectiousness but had been as serious as Delta, McConkey wouldn't have been far wrong. But then there are many reasons why such a scenario is super unlikely.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039569#Comment_119039569

I totally agree with you and don't trust word out of him and others after all this .

That's why I thought it was funny that Fintan was now accepting what he was saying as true , because it suits him . While initially I watched and listened to some of these programmes I became more and more repulsed by their continuous panic and repetitive nonsense .

Clare Byrne , Pat Kenny and their esteemed guests should be sent on a slowboat to Shanghai after the rubbish they have unloaded over the last 2 years .

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039690#Comment_119039690

Agree . See my post replying to live4tkd above .

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040019#Comment_119040019

In fairness that prediction was based on exponential infection rates with no mitigation and no restrictions .

It was not his finest hour though, Ficheall , and was the start of his descent into the over exaggeration that's become associated with ISAG .

He has rowed back significantly lately but damage is done to his credibility as far as the general public is concerned anyway .

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041617#Comment_119041617

Deleted post

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045906#Comment_119045906

Great post .

It was just as you say at the start with only those hospitalised and very ill being tested so the CFR was indeed 2 to 3% and still high until everybody with symptoms was being referred for testing .

Everybody was scared in hospitals watching China and Italy and waiting for the wave to strike .

He overreacted at that time ( we all were even saying at work " my God McConkey what are you saying ?" but there was not enough data to refute those numbers at the time .

I think dominatinmc is correct that he should have been less anxious to put himself out there but it has been a learning curve for everyone really .

Hopefully a once in a lifetime event ?

Ficheall

I see North Korea have locked down due to an outbreak since none of them are vaccinated. I'd imagine they may be even more ruthless than the Chinese. Wonder if they'll be asking for vaccines from the rest of the world.

Amenhotep

I saw on the BBC earlier Gordon Brown warning about the world "Sleepwalking into another variant crisis"

unless the low income countries are vaccinated.

OK, surely at this stage even the biggest covidians know that vaccines just reduce severe illness, they don't do much on transmission and so can't stop "variant factories".

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-61413576

Why are they doubling down on the vaccine ? they KNOW this is endemic now, whats the endgame here???

Thing is , if you follow the money in these cases, they always have a vested interest, I'd love to see how much stock Gordon has in big pharma ...

seamus

I see North Korea have locked down due to an outbreak since none of them are vaccinated. I'd imagine they may be even more ruthless than the Chinese. Wonder if they'll be asking for vaccines from the rest of the world.

Doubtful. If they get any, they'll get them from China or Russia. The NK leadership would rather see millions die than accept help from the West. They're kind of cartoonish villians though. They would have very serious discussions about how a massive covid outbreak might reduce the population and ease their food crisis, and that would be a good thing. They could also very easily use it as propaganda and blame the West for creating covid to attack NK.

Why are they doubling down on the vaccine ? they KNOW this is endemic now, whats the endgame here???

You said it yourself, vaccines reduce severe illness. An Omicron outbreak in an impoverished country with little vaccination would lead to many preventable deaths.

The variant thing is a bit silly though. Remember that Brown is a finance person, not an epidemiologist.