Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

dominatinMC

seamus wrote: »

Between 12 and 18 the danger is low, but the risk of contracting it is not. So on a whole-population level it's prudent to avoid outbreaks within these groups.

Not being belligerent or anything, but genuinely curious as to why this is the case? If we have reached herd immunity, and >70% of the adult population are fully vaccinated, what exactly is the issue with the odd outbreak in schools?

MOH

Hurrache wrote: »

Can't tone something down that wasn't being hyped in the first place. Questions being asked and discussed does not hype make.

This thread is both increasingly funny and sad. It's a virtual example of mass hysteria, people hyping themselves and others up over something that they think may happen, not things that are actually happening. Calls for public revolt and disorder over something they're imagining.

It's like that mad bloke who sits near your in a bus audibly arguing imagined scenarios in his head, you might get a bit of entertainment out of it, but you're aware that any sensible input will just drive them madder.

seamus wrote: »

Mad to see how far off the deep end some people have gone. This time last year the same people were claiming that vaccines were years away and we needed to open up and just give in because we can't stay locked down forever.

Mad to see how far into the sand some people have stuck their heads in denial. It's like a row of ostriches.

This time last year the chair of NPHET's covid expert advisory group told everyone that thanks to the improved health infrastructure and contact tracing that was now in place, we should be able to swiftly target clusters and trace and isolate contacts, and as a result "we certainly would hope not to be having to impose any further national-level restrictions".

11 months later and we've been under fairly severe national-level restrictions for the majority of that time. (Largely because that was all a lie, Philip Nolan doesn't believe in contact tracing, and we didn't remotely have the ability to identify and trace clusters).

On the day of that interview the 7-day average was 19. The 7-day positive rate was 0.3%.
Yesterday the 7-day average was 303 (2.4%), the lowest it has been in over six months (299 on Dec 15th). Hospital and ICU cases are through the floor. I can't remember the last time I heard the R-number mentioned.
Three months ago Varadkar and Glynn were saying we'd find it very difficult to stay below 500 daily cases because of the UK variant.

Yet there's been zero positivity about this. We've suddenly got a new metric, the percentage of delta variant cases, and that's being strongly hyped as justification for pushing back easing of restrictions.

How can you possibly claim that people are "off the deep end" and "hysterical" for suggesting that the planned opening won't happen, considering all the positive indicators, everything that's been used to date, are being completely ignored while NPHET push yet another bogeyman.

Hurrache

MOH wrote: »

How can you possibly claim that people are "off the deep end" and "hysterical" for suggesting that the planned opening won't happen, considering all the positive indicators, everything that's been used to date, are being completely ignored while NPHET push yet another bogeyman.

Simply because they are, they've worked themselves into a ball of frenzy, stress and hysteria.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

Simply because they are, they've worked themselves into a ball of frenzy, stress and hysteria.

And when Micheal comes out and says the next phase has been delayed, will you be here to apologise to those same people who said that's exactly what'll happen?

I mean, it's not like this pattern hasn't happened multiple times over the last year - decision point approaches, NPHET start making noises on social media/in the press about their "concerns", this feeds on itself over the next few days with lots of analysis and interviews.

D-day arrives and Micheal comes out on the 6.1 and says that the advice from NPHET shows worrying trends and we need to respond accordingly. As such, because we want things we open to stay open, the following will be delayed...

All of this has happened before. It's happening again.

prunudo

Hurrache wrote: »

Simply because they are, they've worked themselves into a ball of frenzy, stress and hysteria.

Can you not put the connection between their stress and nphets/governments response over the last 16 months. The constant kite flying, soundbites, saying everything but actually saying nothing will eventually have an effect on people's emptions. Imagine having planned your wedding for the 3rd time on July 10th only to be met by the constant barrage of negativity in the media the last few days.
You could replace wedding, with reopening your business and you'd be met with the same emotions. Of course people are worked up, but its not over nothing.

jusvi2001

Hope the M.martin and team is not going to keep Ireland in lock down. We were only country where construction was fully stopped and now people are suffering from homelessness and exorbitant rents. now they are going to kill the hospitality sector and aviation with delayed reopening.

charlie14

dominatinMC wrote: »

Not being belligerent or anything, but genuinely curious as to why this is the case? If we have reached herd immunity, and >70% of the adult population are fully vaccinated, what exactly is the issue with the odd outbreak in schools?

Herd immunity percentages are in relation to the total population. 70% of our adult population is roughly 55% of our total population.

seamus

dominatinMC wrote: »

Not being belligerent or anything, but genuinely curious as to why this is the case? If we have reached herd immunity, and >70% of the adult population are fully vaccinated, what exactly is the issue with the odd outbreak in schools?

Variants. And I'm not saying that to be hysterical, but more sandbagging against the future. In the event that a variant emerges that is sufficiently resistant to require a higher herd immunity threshold, then it's in the unvaccinated populations that it gains a foothold and makes inroads to the rest.

The odds of Ireland actually breeding a new dangerous variant is very small, it's some kid picking something up on holidays and bringing it back into their school which poses a potential problem.

A variant will not emerge which is suddenly impervious to all vaccines, any which might present a danger are ones which reduce the protection afforded by vaccines. Which is why a vaccinated student population is safer than an unvaccinated one, even if the virus itself poses little threat to teenagers.

Silentcorner

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

And when Micheal comes out and says the next phase has been delayed, will you be here to apologise to those same people who said that's exactly what'll happen?

I mean, it's not like this pattern hasn't happened multiple times over the last year - decision point approaches, NPHET start making noises on social media/in the press about their "concerns", this feeds on itself over the next few days with lots of analysis and interviews.

D-day arrives and Micheal comes out on the 6.1 and says that the advice from NPHET shows worrying trends and we need to respond accordingly. As such, because we want things we open to stay open, the following will be delayed...

All of this has happened before. It's happening again.

He delayed opening back in Feb because of fear of the Variant of the Day...we need to treat it like a new virus he remarked.

Despite the obvious increase in people's movement week on week since then, the numbers are predictably decreasing since Feb....here we are in the summer still pedaling the same nonsense.

Either Micheal Martin is a moron, or he thinks we are all morons!!!

bear1

Watch and see July 5th be pushed back over the minuscule amount of hospitalisations and July 19th become even trickier.

Allinall

Silentcorner wrote: »

He delayed opening back in Feb because of fear of the Variant of the Day...we need to treat it like a new virus he remarked.

Despite the obvious increase in people's movement week on week since then, the numbers are predictably decreasing since Feb....here we are in the summer still pedaling the same nonsense.

Either Micheal Martin is a moron, or he thinks we are all morons!!!

Did he delay the planned re-opening in early June?

Answer is no.

I wonder why that was?

zackory

seamus wrote: »

Variants. And I'm not saying that to be hysterical, but more sandbagging against the future. In the event that a variant emerges that is sufficiently resistant to require a higher herd immunity threshold, then it's in the unvaccinated populations that it gains a foothold and makes inroads to the rest.

The odds of Ireland actually breeding a new dangerous variant is very small, it's some kid picking something up on holidays and bringing it back into their school which poses a potential problem.

A variant will not emerge which is suddenly impervious to all vaccines, any which might present a danger are ones which reduce the protection afforded by vaccines. Which is why a vaccinated student population is safer than an unvaccinated one, even if the virus itself poses little threat to teenagers.

A real scaremongering tone off that post.

A variant might emerge, a child might get it while abroad, he might spread it to another child and we might all die.

What if the plane home crashes and kills the child?

rob316

I heard that Favier on the radio earlier, pure and utter scaremongering. They have absolutely no regard for anything but the health service, which in no possible scenario will experience the level of "stress" it was under in January again from Covid or any variant.

Unless leo and michael can find their balls next week, the 3 week delay is happening.

seamus

zackory wrote: »

What if the plane home crashes and kills the child?

Will the plane crash also cause injuries to the rest of the population?

I see wilful ignorance is alive and well.

Level 42

Realise that the ongoing lockdown is due to the pathetic capabilities of the HSE

Hurrache

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

And when Micheal comes out and says the next phase has been delayed, will you be here to apologise to those same people who said that's exactly what'll happen?

Why would I? It doesn't make one bit of difference to the hysteria they've found themselves trapped in.

If they find themselves stressed about the thoughts of it, why the hell are they obsessed about thinking, reading and posting about it?

Micky 32

seamus wrote: »

Will the plane crash also cause injuries to the rest of the population?

I see wilful ignorance is alive and well.

So Seamus, restrictions indefinately and ban travel? Would that keep you happy? :rolleyes:

BTW i’m now fully vaccinated and i’ll be doing my upmost to get back as normal as possible in the near future.

CalamariFritti

Hurrache wrote: »

Why would I? It doesn't make one bit of difference to the hysteria they've found themselves trapped in.

Its the anti-restriction folks that are trapped in hysteria. You couldnt make it up.

Idbatterim

Level 42 wrote: »

Realise that the ongoing lockdown is due to the pathetic capabilities of the HSE

Its a partial factor, but not the largest... The largest is the populist and spineless nature of Irish politics... Its a very backward country still

seamus

Micky 32 wrote: »

So Seamus, restrictions indefinately and ban travel? Would that keep you happy? :rolleyes:

What are you prattling on about? What's that got to do with anything I've posted?

thebronze14

KrustyUCC wrote: »

She's a member of NPHET

Laying the ground work for next week's NPHET recommendations

Delay by 2 to 3 weeks = more vaccinations and Martin and Co will agree to that

"“Another three weeks would give us another million doses, which would take us from 3.5m to 4.5m doses, which would make a really substantial difference. At this point, it is all about getting vaccines in arms and an additional two or three weeks would make a very substantial difference,” Dr Favier said on RTɒs Morning Ireland.

“The feeling on the ground, and this would be the feeling of many General Practitioners, is that vaccination saves lives. If it’s two to three more weeks so that we can prevent ever having our health service in the same circumstances it was back in January, or ever having that many deaths again or ever going into another lockdown, I think the sentiment out there would be that we would delay.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/many-gps-want-indoor-reopening-delayed-by-several-weeks-over-delta-variant-concerns-nphet-member-40575233.html

Always love the argument to prevent lockdown just don't open up for another 2 to 3 weeks

Then it will be don't open up as we need the schools back similar to last year

So frustrating...Opening up pubs sensibly would make precious little difference at this stage to public health like. Most people don't seem to care about the needless elongation of these restrictions which is the worst thing!

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

Will the plane crash also cause injuries to the rest of the population?

I see wilful ignorance is alive and well.

But vaccination doesnt fully prevent transmission anyways, it just reduces the likelihood.

Children are already overwhelmingly less likely to contract or transmit the virus - so why vaccinate them? At what point is an acceptable level of risk of transmission - because vaccinated adults are similar in risk to unvaccinated children in terms of virus transmission.

Tacitus Kilgore

seamus wrote: »

What are you prattling on about? What's that got to do with anything I've posted?

Jesus, you have some patience...

Micky 32

seamus wrote: »

What are you prattling on about? What's that got to do with anything I've posted?

A lot because you’re constantly whining about variants .

CruelSummer

bear1 wrote: »

Watch and see July 5th be pushed back over the minuscule amount of hospitalisations and July 19th become even trickier.

If they dare…

The worst group of politicians in the history of the State are currently sitting in the Dáil deferring the running of the country to a Covid only focus group who are unelected and don’t care of the consequences of their actions.
Absolute joke, out with the lot of them.

seamus

timmyntc wrote: »

But vaccination doesnt fully prevent transmission anyways, it just reduces the likelihood.

Exactly. So if you have an unvaccinated student population, the likelihood of a variant being contracted abroad and spreading amongst them is far higher than if the student population is vaccinated.

Come September, the adult population will be nearly fully complete, and we'll have about 350k-400k students between 12-18 that will be vaccinated during the first term.

This will provide more than enough leeway for social distancing and pods to be dropped come January, though hopefully some of the common sense stuff around hygiene and sickness will continue.

Tacitus Kilgore

Micky 32 wrote: »

A lot because you’re constantly whining about variants .

He's not whining, he made a very reasoned post about why the variants are a concern, which was followed by accusations of scaremongering, and something to the effect of:


"Durh, you wAnt loCkdOwns foReVer, restriCtions inDefiNaTely ban tRavEl "



You're wasted in here Seamus, arguing with lampposts.

gazzer

Crowds of people huddled together on the likes of Capel and Parliament St last week and the week before (I was one of them) and no jump in cases.

I know it's harder to catch Covid outdoors but there was absolutely no social distancing yet Nephet want to delay indoor dining and drinking even though all safety conditions will be met. It's absolutely disgusting. They really take us for idiots

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

Exactly. So if you have an unvaccinated student population, the likelihood of a variant being contracted abroad and spreading amongst them is far higher than if the student population is vaccinated.

Come September, the adult population will be nearly fully complete, and we'll have about 350k-400k students between 12-18 that will be vaccinated during the first term.

This will provide more than enough leeway for social distancing and pods to be dropped come January, though hopefully some of the common sense stuff around hygiene and sickness will continue.

As I said, and as you pointedly left out of my quote - unvaccinated children run miniscule risk of transmission as it stands, in the same ballpark as vaccinated adults.

At what point do we draw the line and say the risk is acceptable? Either its acceptable for vaccinated adults & unvax children, or its unacceptable for adults but is for children.

Or else we acknowledge that the vaccine minimises the risk to oneself - so all that really matters is that those at risk from covid, get vaccinated.

Micky 32

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

He's not whining, he made a very reasoned post about why the variants are a concern, which was followed by accusations of scaremongering, and something to the effect of:


"Durh, you wAnt loCkdOwns foReVer, restriCtions inDefiNaTely ban tRavEl "



You're wasted in here Seamus, arguing with lampposts.

I asked him a simple question. He was whining about someone travelling bringing back a variant so i asked him would he be happier if travel was banned?

Also read my post, i never accused him of scaremongering. Learn how to read before you post :rolleyes: lamposts? I think I certainly just replied to a pylon here.