United Ireland Poll - please vote

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117635918#Comment_117635918

None of the parties have put forward anything on the cost yet. In fairness to Jim O'C of FF, he has said that the cost will be extensive but we shouldn't view it from a purely financial perspective. At least he is being honest about it.

Francie, please explain how your version is cheaper or better? Just using the term "subsumed" isn't a counter argument.

In your non subsumed model, will the %PS workers be as it is in Ireland currently or the higher NI %. Easy to calculate the cost of this especially in the short term as our GDP won't be changing much in the first decade.

Cost of rates of pay can be judged as a % of our GDP or another metric meaning the details of what the redefined PS roles are irrelevant.

Ditto, an NHS style health service. Will it cost the same % of GDP as our health service does now?

Look I'm not looking for answers as we both know a "better" plan doesn't exist right now.

But just saying a better plan will come for the sole reason of not likely the others is ridiculous.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636098#Comment_117636098

Why would somebody who has said stridently that no definitive plan or costing can be made until there are discussions with all the stakeholders and a plan/proposal is arrived at answer any of those questions.

Your problem is you think the 'questions' have been answered. They haven't, some 'experts' have given their OPINION based on a set of parameters they have set up.

As alluded to already, somebody(like Leo) who says they believe a UI can happen in their lifetime must see the issues as surmountable. When the discussions start we will be able to see what his plan is and his opinion. That's how it is going to work. Multitudes of opinions coalescing into a way forward.

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636151#Comment_117636151

And if we ever see this plan it will still have the same issues as all the previous models and use the same assumptions and parameters.

If I'm wrong give an example of a single issue that needs the other stakeholders input to give a "definitive" plan and why it invalidates predictions to date ? Remember that the subventions is irrelevant to the total cost in comparison and the subvention covers everything about the day to day running of NI. So just the improvements that need to be made.

As I said previously, this better plan is just a hope of yours. The plan is just as likely to be worse than what we have now.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636503#Comment_117636503

Basically anything in it.

Two PS's after a lengthy transition period-legally (before blanch loses it again. :)) rationalised and restructured etc would be a different input into any plan.

There is nothing definitive at this stage jh79, just opinion.

Capt'n Midnight

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117627200#Comment_117627200

Even if the cost matched a 10% increase in income tax that wouldn't happen.

NI's economy would benefit from a reunification bonus so costs would reduce relatively quickly. On the order of 1% of overall borrowing over a decade. Way cheaper than the bank bailout and with a lot more to show for it.

A United Ireland would not be a 'cold house' for Nationalists, or for people who don't belong to either tribe, or the new Irish, or those whom the DUP has had pointless crusades against NI having the same laws as Ireland. ( top tip : pick battles you can win or at least those that haven't already been lost in Westminster )

A United Ireland would not be a 'cold house' for Unionists. They'll have the same rights as everyone else.

Once they can say anything other than 'NO' they'll be more acceptable than SF as partners in most possible governments.

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636593#Comment_117636593

My issue isn't that you are claiming that something better might come along it's you saying whatever the plan is will be better. Also your plan is far more ambitious and far more expensive, that's not to say the result wouldn't be better just that the figures out there are based on the easier and cheapest options.

Obviously with alternative plans not existing yet I've no idea what this transition period might look like.

Normally the transition period just means giving NI some time to sort it's sh*t out. But yours would apply to the Republic too. How do you control it in the Republic? A change in government and it's all up in the air again.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636888#Comment_117636888

FG would go into government with the DUP without a doubt. They have shown they can look past certain things and 'reach out' when they want to.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636933#Comment_117636933

jh...I don't have a plan and feel no onus to have one.

Nobody should be claiming definitive outcomes until everyone involved has had their say and offered their opinion. Then it is the responsibility of a constitutionally mandated government to produce a plan to match our aspiration to Unity. You are tilting at windmills. Simple as that.

markodaly

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636934#Comment_117636934

Arent SF already in government with the DUP?

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636972#Comment_117636972

Yes. Hadn't you noticed?

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636888#Comment_117636888

A united ireland is better for everyone.......if the union was such a good deal,why arent any other counties clamouring to get back in?

Any country that has ever left the british empire has prospered....these concerns about costs/flags/size of country etc were same pedeled by the same newspaper/media to and in malta in 1961....who thinks malta would want back in nowadays

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636961#Comment_117636961

Fair enough. But there is an issue with support for Unification in NI. You claim that the "plan" will close the gap but movement on this is ridiculously slow. Discussions have not even started at the political level.

I would say even viewing it from your perspective that a plan of some description is needed now to boost figures in poll so that a border poll is actually called.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637166#Comment_117637166

Look to the GFA to see what can happen in the space of a few years. An intractable conflict/war ended and a lasting international agreement.

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637250#Comment_117637250

Out of curiosity, if the trend in the opinion polls continues and by extension a border poll moves further away, would you be hoping for a plan from SF then to try to recover the lost ground?

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637361#Comment_117637361

Majorities in both jurisdictions wanting a BP?

The fact that it is now in everyone's (barring a rump of belligerent Unionists and partitionists) interests to end partition for once and for all?

We are only 'trending' one way and if the British do manage to summon the courage to reject the Protocol I think only the bitterest of partitionists and belligerent Unionists will remain the only barrier.

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637449#Comment_117637449

They might want a border poll at some stage in the future but they don't want a United Ireland. And the numbers wanting unification have trended downwards over the last 3 polls. Maybe even though the majority are against unification they believe people should get to have their say anyways. Who knows.

The people of NI want the protocol and the DUP will back down or claim a victory for a rebranded version of the protocol in my opinion.

Only time will tell I suppose.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637520#Comment_117637520

Well you have nothing to be worried about so.

jh79

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637632#Comment_117637632

Despite not being likely to happen, unification from a financial perspective is quite interesting to discuss.

Shebean

What do people think it might look like?

I would like to see a HSE/NHS hybrid. We'll have an opportunity to clear the board and start fresh. I would expect support from the EU and investment from private business. Areas will still need public and civil servants. So I don't see any major lay offs. We aren't known for trimming the fat as is. The Garda could blend with the PSNI into a new force, we've Harris there already.

N.I. is never going to progress unless we see a U.I.

My big hope is an end, if not a change, in the old boys network of crony wheeling and dealing. At least for a few years until they get settled.

blanch152

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117635918#Comment_117635918

Here we are, back to dark hints of public servants being thrown out of their jobs.

Maybe, next time your plan to ship unionists back to England could be confined to those on social welfare and in the public service so as to save on the costs of a united Ireland.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637792#Comment_117637792

I think healthcare,housing,education and water are human rights and should be free to all in a united ireland

Liberialism is a farce and deosnt hold any future in the 21st century

Ardillaun

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117635686#Comment_117635686

No reasonable person would be able to say with 100% certainty that violence would not break out. It’s a possible scenario that must be considered - sectarian/tribal divisions remain in NI as clearly evidenced by the two main parties - and the capacity of the Irish state to combat a sustained insurgency is pitifully limited at the moment. UI would work best when nobody cares about it much any more.

Imagine going into a car show room, spotting an interesting vehicle and being told by the salesman he’s offended you had the effrontery to ask about the price, specs and safety features because you have to buy the car anyway. Not a great sales pitch. If a referendum is called, there will be an abrupt spike of interest in what UI might mean for taxes. Many people with young families in and around Dublin are barely getting by as it is and will require granular details on the quids required. We don’t want another banking-style catastrophe where poor old Paddy is landed with a massive bill. Not acknowledging such risks makes them look even worse.

Shebean

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638778#Comment_117638778

I think it will be a great opportunity to start from scratch, hopefully with lessons learned. The big issues are the DUP and their type wanting to remain backward, unionists wanting to remain, which is fair, nationalists and others who want to get past it all. A UI would end all of this and politicians could concentrate on the public services and policy.

I think a great move for everyone concerned would be the Irish state cutting ties completely with the Catholic church. Ridding ourselves of any religiously led legislation for that matter.

FrancieBrady

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638910#Comment_117638910

Reasonable people look at the facts. There is zero evidence that Unionism would support a violent campaign capable of destabilising a UI. There's no 100% certainty of anything but there is no visible way they could sustain anything that would require the deployment of massive resources. Jamie Bryson is finding it difficult to fill the upstairs rooms of pubs these days. His threat to lead 'disruptive marches in Dublin' has withered on the vine too.

Capt'n Midnight

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639138#Comment_117639138

Back in the day Unionists could shut down Northern Ireland, no power, no bins, roadblocks etc. Back when one side had their hands on the controls.

The 'Ulster says NO' demos at Belfast City Hall had 100,000 travel there.

Only a few hundred showed up at the NI Protocol demos. Even then numbers may have been boosted by intimidation.

markodaly

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637250#Comment_117637250

Maybe most people in the North are happy with the status quo? It could very well be that simple, all noise and bluster aside.

markodaly

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638778#Comment_117638778

What exactly do you mean by Liberalism and what do you propose instead? Out and out nationalism, including economic nationalism?

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639811#Comment_117639811

Ya....so happy with staus quo...unionists are tearing emselves apart over the "protocol" and natonlists are openly discussing a border poll🤣🤣

markodaly

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639868#Comment_117639868

You didn't answer the question.

What do you mean by Liberalism and what do you propose to take its place?

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639871#Comment_117639871

I havnt proposed anything?

Just its failed policies and outworkings and its never gonna work,liberials sound wee bit like commies now,saying "itll be different this time"🤣🤣

so il listen to any solution seems commonsense and/or is different....

.lads telling everyone we're super rich while soup runs on in dublin and waterford every night and people cant afford to live here are pure delusional to demand any alternative be sneered at.