Milan-Sanremo 2021

TheBlaaMan

Saturday sees the 112th running of Milan-Sanremo, this year back to a more traditional date and on a route that is also very traditional, albeit with an enforced change halfway through (and, tbh before most of us will have bothered to tune in) in advance of reaching the coast. Out is the Turchino Pass and in is a similar route over the Colle del Giovo; once completed, there is still 112km to go and an almost cast-iron guarantee that any early breakaway will yet be caught.




Apart from the underlying issue of its 299km length – at 6-7 hours in the saddle it is the longest race of any on the calendar – it is the last 60km where it gets interesting, with three small bumps to overcome before the Cipressa and Poggio climbs in the last 30km…….and a breakneck descent off the Poggio to a finish in San Remo





Last year it was a two-up sprint with in-form Allaphillipe just pipped by Wout van Aert, off his victory on the Strade Bianche the previous week. It will be a strong sprinter or daredevil solo break off the Poggio that win this race – it generally is.

We have to have high hopes that Sam will maintain the form from the UAE tour & Paris Nice along with the racecraft and the support to contend for his first monument win. That said Decuenick Quickstep will invest heavily in Allaphilipe to do it again and Sam will likely have to make do with a small level of support in the latter stage of the race. Getting over the Poggio with something in reserve is always the key. But win this one and you will dine out on it for the rest of your career!

Sam will have huge competition however – van Aert, Allaphillipe, Sagan, van der Poel, Nibali, Matthews, Ewan, maybe even the likes of Ganna etc etc dont dorget Kwiatkowski and Sagain, even Gilbert who is so keen to addthe fifth monument to his palmares. ......this list is very long so the stars will have to align for Sam and it will be a tense last 20 minutes on Saturday

Hon’ Sam !!!

It's my least favourite race of the year but always delivers a finish worth seeing.

Taxuser1

the full race live on eurosport

Sam used the hills in Paris Nice to build form but it will be a super effort to be within 10 seconds of Alapilippe, WVA & MVDP when they go on the Poggio. Who chases then? They won't bring him to the finish/

MVDP for the win with the best of the sprint

dahat

It will basically be Lotto Soudal pulling everyone over the Poggio if the main leaders form a selection at that point.

TheBlaaMan

Sam has gone head to head with van Aert and beaten him, at least once, and lost to him at least once. I don't think he has ever sprinted against van der Poel....has he? Would he be expected to have the edge?

breezy1985

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Sam has gone head to head with van Aert and beaten him, at least once, and lost to him at least once. I don't think he has ever sprinted against van der Poel....has he? Would he be expected to have the edge?

I think the Vans will go early and even though they have great recovery I dont see them in a sprint. If it comes to it I think Matthews is favorite with Sam second in a sprint although PN has kinda changed my mind on that.


If its not gonna be Sam I would love to see Gilbert do it and I assume himself and Ewan will be doing the same attack/wait strategy as DQS

mewso

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Sam has gone head to head with van Aert and beaten him, at least once, and lost to him at least once. I don't think he has ever sprinted against van der Poel....has he? Would he be expected to have the edge?

WVA is probably a faster sprinter than MVdP (acceleration being a different factor) so you would guess Sam could beat him. Just don't think he will be there unfortunately. I hope he proves me wrong. I expect a super acceleration from MvdP on the Poggio to cross the line solo assuming nobody can stay with him.

griffin100

Can’t see Sam being there at the end, the race is just that bit too long with the big climbs coming so close to the end.

Don’t think a pure sprinter like Sam has won it since Cav in 2009. I don't count Demares win in 2016 for obvious reasons and Kristoff and Degenkolb are a different type of sprinter to Sam.

MVDP will take some beating. I really hope Sam proves me wrong.

Junior

griffin100 wrote: »

Can’t see Sam being there at the end, the race is just that bit too long with the big climbs coming so close to the end.

Don’t think a pure sprinter like Sam has won it since Cav in 2009. I don't count Demares win in 2016 for obvious reasons and Kristoff and Degenkolb are a different type of sprinter to Sam.

MVDP will take some beating. I really hope Sam proves me wrong.

Ciolek, Goss.

griffin100

Junior wrote: »

Ciolek, Goss.

I’ll give you Goss Ciolek I’ve always had my doubts about.

buffalo

Taxuser1 wrote: »

the full race live on eurosport

Holy moly, eight hours, ad-free. Finishes 15 minutes before the rugby starts. How am I supposed to get anything done on Saturday?!

breezy1985

buffalo wrote: »

Holy moly, eight hours, ad-free. Finishes 15 minutes before the rugby starts. How am I supposed to get anything done on Saturday?!

Skip the rugby

Macy0161

I wouldn't have too many doubts of Sam being there at the end, it's more whether it will come down to it in the end for me. JA the actual problem, as that means DQS won't pull.

It is always close though - talking a handful of seconds even if the poggio break does make it. Kwait/ Sagan/ JA were only 5 seconds ahead of the bunch, Nibbles and JA were both given same time, last year 2 seconds.

On the face of it, hard to look past the MVA/ MvdP/ JA but the first two have marked each other out before, obviously last year at Gent Wevelgem. Whether they'll work if they all get away is a different thing.

I really hope a sprint, and Sam. I'd love to see Phil Gil come out of a small group (or Cirpressa attack with the 3 above). I've a sneaky feeling it might be Sagan's year though - going completely under the radar.

breezy1985 wrote: »

Skip the rugby

Skip the first 230km of the race too! Host broadcaster is only showing the whole thing to discourage people from going to the road side!

retalivity

Macy0161 wrote: »

I really hope a sprint, and Sam. I'd love to see Phil Gil come out of a small group (or Cirpressa attack with the 3 above). I've a sneaky feeling it might be Sagan's year though - going completely under the radar.

Sagan has zero form and is coming back from having Covid, don't think he'll be near the pointy end at all.

LCD

I can't wait to see what way DQS tackle the Poggio

Option A) Drive it as hard as possible setting it up for an attack by Alaphilippe in the last km

Option Ride it at the best pace that Bennett can sustain, don't go with any attacks & keep the pressure on the whole way to the Via Roma

Does anyone give Gilbert a chance? Complete the set of 5 monuments

Bambaata

I dont see Sam surviving over the Poggio, MVDP for me. There are about 10 riders in with a shout who will be >15/20s ahead of Sam over that climb. Such a strong lineup.

Macy0161

retalivity wrote: »

Sagan has zero form and is coming back from having Covid, don't think he'll be near the pointy end at all.

Exactly the time he'll win it!

neris

buffalo wrote: »

Holy moly, eight hours, ad-free. Finishes 15 minutes before the rugby starts. How am I supposed to get anything done on Saturday?!

At least it finishes before the rugby unlike a few years ago where it ended about 20 minutes into england ireland

Lumen

Macy0161 wrote: »

Skip the first 230km of the race too! Host broadcaster is only showing the whole thing to discourage people from going to the road side!

My plan for the day is: ride bicycle, put MSR on TV, set alarm for the final, drink beer, pass out, wake up, cheer Sam for winning the race, cheer myself for winning at life.

CantGetNoSleep

Lumen wrote: »

My plan for the day is: ride bicycle, put MSR on TV, set alarm for the final, drink beer, pass out, wake up, cheer Sam for winning the race, cheer myself for winning at life.

That sounds like a fantastic plan. I've a friend who usually plans a route to match each of the monuments and some of the bigger classics like Strade Bianche, so I'd imagine this week he has something longer and flatter than usual, with two climbs at the end to replicate the finish. Then home to watch Sam win it, or Gilbert as a consolation

Taxuser1

Sam cracked a full 1900 metre from
The top of the Poggio last year. That was before there was an attack. I actually think he’s stronger this year which will put him nearer the front of the race but still a good few seconds down on the form guys when they go for it with a km to the top. Likely they’ll crest the Poggio together or MVDP slightl ahead. Alaphilippe will get a free ride down covering Wva and hope he has fresh legs when they all come together to sprint. Because of the cat and mouse they might all lose out to a small bunch rejoining and someone finishing quickly or jumping across. But that’s unlikely. I think the top 3 will be between them.

If theres to be any sort of upset I think Matej Mohoric is a very good outside shout for a place. one I also like is Aranburu at a decent price. Can climb and can sprint.

Eamonnator

MVDP is 5/2 fav. or thereabouts with the bookies. That seems completely unrealistic to me for a race, that is 299kms long, with all the variables and possibilities that, that entails.
WVA is c. 3/1, JA c. 7/1 and Sam c.12/1.
You can get Sagan at 50/1 on one site.
If Sam could get over the Poggio near the front, he could do it, however the way MVDP and WVA race, I can't see that happening.

dastardly00

Eamonnator wrote: »

MVDP is 5/2 fav. or thereabouts with the bookies. That seems completely unrealistic to me for a race, that is 299kms long, with all the variables and possibilities that, that entails.
WVA is c. 3/1, JA c. 7/1 and Sam c.12/1.
You can get Sagan at 50/1 on one site.
If Sam could get over the Poggio near the front, he could do it, however the way MVDP and WVA race, I can't see that happening.

If it's gruppo compatto halfway up the Poggio and MvdP attacks... who's going to be able to stick with him or catch him?

It would be absolutely class though if he attacked on the Cipressa

dastardly00

https://twitter.com/Sobaitodecrema/status/1372176938907885570

Cetyl Palmitate

https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1372679415906308101?s=19

Mefistofelino

Cetyl Palmitate wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1372679415906308101?s=19

Given he attacked 50km out because he was cold, is he planning to attack 299 km out if he's bored?

Lumen

Tailwind.

https://www.windfinder.com/#13/43.8245/7.8212/2021-03-20T15:00Z/report

Macy0161

Mefistofelino wrote: »

Given he attacked 50km out because he was cold, is he planning to attack 299 km out if he's bored?

Wouldn't be the first time he's attacked because he's bored to be fair!

Sam's not optimistic for his chances on Saturday.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sam-bennett-milan-san-remo-is-considered-the-sprinters-monument-but-i-cant-see-it/

TheBlaaMan

Deleted User wrote: »

Sam's not optimistic for his chances on Saturday.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sam-bennett-milan-san-remo-is-considered-the-sprinters-monument-but-i-cant-see-it/

And then Cyclingnews pops up with this story....

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sun-and-tailwinds-could-favour-the-sprinters-at-milan-san-remo/

...completely contradicting the worlds best sprinter. I know who's opinion to trust. A tailwind will favour attackers, not sprinters.............strange article.

breezy1985

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

And then Cyclingnews pops up with this story....

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sun-and-tailwinds-could-favour-the-sprinters-at-milan-san-remo/

...completely contradicting the worlds best sprinter. I know who's opinion to trust. A tailwind will favour attackers, not sprinters.............strange article.

I don't ever trust anything a professional athlete says