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€7.00 a kilo how long will it last

  • 04-03-2021 9:02am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 259 ✭✭


    Lambs a good price at the moment how long do people think it will last


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,907 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    Lambs a good price at the moment how long do people think it will last

    Welsh farmers are finding it difficult to get meat out since Brexit so as long as those difficulties last I think it will hold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    CJhaughey wrote: »
    Welsh farmers are finding it difficult to get meat out since Brexit so as long as those difficulties last I think it will hold.

    For the ignorant among us, what is the normal going rate per kilo?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,068 ✭✭✭Kevhog1988


    karlitob wrote: »
    For the ignorant among us, what is the normal going rate per kilo?

    I was getting €5.55 in July so its a big difference since then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭White Clover


    Lads, there's no fortune to be made at €7.00/kg.
    To put things in perspective, it is €20/ lamb more than this time last year.
    On 200 lambs it is €4000, Meal, Fertilizer and Diesel all gone up in price.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭Tileman


    CJhaughey wrote: »
    Welsh farmers are finding it difficult to get meat out since Brexit so as long as those difficulties last I think it will hold.

    With the development on the n Ireland protocol from the uk side yesterday the welsh farmers might find it more difficult in coming weeks


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,068 ✭✭✭Kevhog1988


    Lads, there's no fortune to be made at €7.00/kg.
    To put things in perspective, it is €20/ lamb more than this time last year.
    On 200 lambs it is €4000, Meal, Fertilizer and Diesel all gone up in price.

    better than a kick in the B*ll*cks all the same...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Lads, there's no fortune to be made at €7.00/kg.
    To put things in perspective, it is €20/ lamb more than this time last year.
    On 200 lambs it is €4000, Meal, Fertilizer and Diesel all gone up in price.

    Nonetheless, that’s a 27% increase in price. Did meal, fertiliser and diesel go up by the same amount? I know diesel didn’t but as I understand it, meal and fertiliser can fluctuate quite a bit too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭Green farmer


    karlitob wrote: »
    Nonetheless, that’s a 27% increase in price. Did meal, fertiliser and diesel go up by the same amount? I know diesel didn’t but as I understand it, meal and fertiliser can fluctuate quite a bit too.


    Yes, last year was good for sheep farmers, but its coming up from a very low base. Even now the average sheep farmer only makes a fraction of the average industrial wage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Yes, last year was good for sheep farmers, but its coming up from a very low base. Even now the average sheep farmer only makes a fraction of the average industrial wage.

    Understood. It doesn’t answer what the increase in diesel/meal/fertiliser is. And also begs the question of what that fraction is.

    Not to be too pedantic - average wage and average industrial wage are different as it’s obviously related to industry rather than farming.

    What is the average wage of the full time sheep farmer in Ireland?

    I think this report shows average sheep farmer income is €16500 in 2017 with direct costs of production significantly lower (-6%) while overhead costs of production grew modestly (+2%).

    In my absence of knowledge about farming, clearly a family can’t survive on that since it’s less than social welfare. I would presume that sheep farmers are not full time and supplement their incomes elsewhere or else they are small holdings with no mortgage no family and happy to rear sheep.

    https://www.teagasc.ie/rural-economy/rural-economy/agri-food-business/agriculture-in-ireland/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭Green farmer


    karlitob wrote: »
    Understood. It doesn’t answer what the increase in diesel/meal/fertiliser is. And also begs the question of what that fraction is.

    Not to be too pedantic - average wage and average industrial wage are different as it’s obviously related to industry rather than farming.

    What is the average wage of the full time sheep farmer in Ireland?

    I think this report shows average sheep farmer income is €16500 in 2017 with direct costs of production significantly lower (-6%) while overhead costs of production grew modestly (+2%).

    In my absence of knowledge about farming, clearly a family can’t survive on that since it’s less than social welfare. I would presume that sheep farmers are not full time and supplement their incomes elsewhere or else they are small holdings with no mortgage no family and happy to rear sheep.

    https://www.teagasc.ie/rural-economy/rural-economy/agri-food-business/agriculture-in-ireland/


    You've got a fairly accurate picture there. Theres not enough money to be made out of it to make a full time living. That's why alot of lads only do it part time, however there are also lads who it would be their only form of income. I read the average industrial wage is €40k a year, so sheep farmers are along way away from that. Even as part time, when you work out what your marking on a hourly basis, it would in many cases be minimum wage territory or less. Whatever you can make out of it is hard earned.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭White Clover


    karlitob wrote: »
    Nonetheless, that’s a 27% increase in price. Did meal, fertiliser and diesel go up by the same amount? I know diesel didn’t but as I understand it, meal and fertiliser can fluctuate quite a bit too.

    Between 15% and 20% increase for all 3.
    As you can see, the "extra money" is small on top of already small money. There'll be no farms bought and paid for out of sheep this year!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Between 15% and 20% increase for all 3.
    As you can see, the "extra money" is small on top of already small money. There'll be no farms bought and paid for out of sheep this year!

    Diesel hasn’t gone up 15-20% in the past year. It’s barely gone up ⅓ of 1%

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/603713/diesel-fuel-prices-ireland/


    Do you have any stats on the other two.

    Did the 15-20% increase occur due to Brexit?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭White Clover


    karlitob wrote: »
    Diesel hasn’t gone up 15-20% in the past year. It’s barely gone up ⅓ of 1%

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/603713/diesel-fuel-prices-ireland/


    Do you have any stats on the other two.

    Did the 15-20% increase occur due to Brexit?

    Diesel was sub 50c per litre, its over 60 now.
    Fertilizer, example 18:6:12 gone from €315 to €380 per tonne
    Meal, can't remember what it was last year but it is gone up substantially.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    You've got a fairly accurate picture there. Theres not enough money to be made out of it to make a full time living. That's why alot of lads only do it part time, however there are also lads who it would be their only form of income. I read the average industrial wage is €40k a year, so sheep farmers are along way away from that. Even as part time, when you work out what your marking on a hourly basis, it would in many cases be minimum wage territory or less. Whatever you can make out of it is hard earned.

    I see what you’re trying to say but it’s not like with like.

    The median income (not wage as income comes in many forms) in ireland in 2016 was €45,500. As you’ve said above, sheep farming is part time for some people. So for those part time people, they - on average - still earn €45,500. It’s just that 16,500€ comes from farming and the other 29000€ comes from something else.

    As these are averages - half are higher and half are lower. Which means for the sheep farmer who earns €16,500 only, there’s another person out there who’s not a sheep farmer, is also earning €16,500.

    As to whether or not, the pay per hour is equal, well all I’d say to that is that there’s many people who know nothing about farming but equally farmers who nothing about the work of other people. (Not meant in a smart way) People earning above €50k or €60k don’t just get it straight away and don’t just do a 9-5. Theres years of work, crap jobs, late hours and professional pressures. A ‘lsenior non-consultant hospital doctor might earn 60-65€. Count the hours that they work, and they spent getting to that point.



    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-gpii/geographicalprofilesofincomeinireland2016/incomeinireland/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Diesel was sub 50c per litre, its over 60 now.
    Fertilizer, example 18:6:12 gone from €315 to €380 per tonne
    Meal, can't remember what it was last year but it is gone up substantially.

    Interesting. Why has it gone up?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    karlitob wrote: »
    Interesting. Why has it gone up?

    All diesel has gone up, it's just there's so much tax on road diesel a 10c increase in diesel isn't so noticeable over a year whereas agri diesel a bigger proportion of the price is the actual diesel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 928 ✭✭✭leoch


    Apparently 7.30 plus pay the transport for next week


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭Dinzee Conlee


    leoch wrote: »
    Apparently 7.30 plus pay the transport for next week

    Where is this leoch?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    All diesel has gone up, it's just there's so much tax on road diesel a 10c increase in diesel isn't so noticeable over a year whereas agri diesel a bigger proportion of the price is the actual diesel.

    I put stats up on diesel price increase. What I found didn’t suggest a 25% increase. But happy to incorrect.

    It’s the other stuff I had wondered about.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭kk.man


    karlitob wrote: »
    I put stats up on diesel price increase. What I found didn’t suggest a 25% increase. But happy to incorrect.

    It’s the other stuff I had wondered about.

    At the pumps last April the price of auto was generally 1.02 ish its now 1.30 ish.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Im off to the Mart in the morning with the last of my hoggets. They have really done well over the last few weeks. Great to be selling at these prices, wish I had more!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    kk.man wrote: »
    At the pumps last April the price of auto was generally 1.02 ish its now 1.30 ish.

    Not sure what pumps you’re going to but national average prices according the the cso show that price of diesel is 12% less in Dec 20 than Dec 19.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 928 ✭✭✭leoch


    Where is this leoch?

    Not sure possibly ballyhanus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭kk.man


    karlitob wrote: »
    Not sure what pumps you’re going to but national average prices according the the cso show that price of diesel is 12% less in Dec 20 than Dec 19.

    I bought auto diseal last April for 0.99c from the depot and price of oil was around 35 dollars a barrel. Price at pumps was 1.03 ish. That's fact... CSO is a bit like teagasc


  • Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    There's going to be a huge amount of food price inflation in the next few years.

    Irish lamb has always been a very premium product. Now is the time where we use the State to market it like that all over the world like we did with beef. Don't go for scale like NZ did. Grass reared, free range, small farm produce.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    kk.man wrote: »
    I bought auto diseal last April for 0.99c from the depot and price of oil was around 35 dollars a barrel. Price at pumps was 1.03 ish. That's fact... CSO is a bit like teagasc

    I’m not gonna get into explaining what an average is. Clearly you didn’t get to all depots - just the one you went to. Whatever way you cut diesel, oil, petrol is cheaper now and has not increased the 30% that you say it has.

    I know nothing about teasasc. Are you trying to intimate that the cso can’t be trusted?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭White Clover


    karlitob wrote: »
    I’m not gonna get into explaining what an average is. Clearly you didn’t get to all depots - just the one you went to. Whatever way you cut diesel, oil, petrol is cheaper now and has not increased the 30% that you say it has.

    I know nothing about teasasc. Are you trying to intimate that the cso can’t be trusted?


    Kk man has given you his figures, they are real life actual figures that are reflected in his bank account. Going down a rabbit hole quoting averages for this and that is nonsense.
    There's a poster on this forum that has a very good saying,
    " if everyone was average, we'd all be going around with less than 2 legs"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Kk man has given you his figures, they are real life actual figures that are reflected in his bank account. Going down a rabbit hole quoting averages for this and that is nonsense.
    There's a poster on this forum that has a very good saying,
    " if everyone was average, we'd all be going around with less than 2 legs"

    Well we weren’t talking about him and his ‘real-life’. The OP spoke about a 27% increase in price of lamb and this lad started mouthing off that this wasn’t a great increase in take-home because there was similar increases in diesel, meal and fertiliser. Not personal increases for him - but all round increases in costs. We weren’t taking about him.

    When asked for figures to back up his claims he quotes a price that no one can verify. Clearly if his price was x then someone else’s was higher. This lad isn’t the marker that everyone goes off.

    I’m sure some other lad today will get 7.5€ a kilo and someone else will get 6,5€ a kilo - giving an average of 7€ a kilo.


    It’s this lad who’s trying to say the cso can’t count without anything to support that position. As if his view of the price of diesel once last April somewhere in ireland is more insightful that the cso who can check the price of all diesel in all pumps at all times for the past 50 years in ireland.

    But let’s listen to this guy and his personal experience.

    There’s another lad on another forum that also has a great quote - “everyone thinks their opinion is worthwhile but no one cares about your opinion unless it’s backed with facts”.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭White Clover


    karlitob wrote: »
    Well we weren’t talking about him and his ‘real-life’. The OP spoke about a 27% increase in price of lamb and this lad started mouthing off that this wasn’t a great increase in take-home because there was similar increases in diesel, meal and fertiliser. Not personal increases for him - but all round increases in costs. We weren’t taking about him.

    When asked for figures to back up his claims he quotes a price that no one can verify. Clearly if his price was x then someone else’s was higher. This lad isn’t the marker that everyone goes off.

    I’m sure some other lad today will get 7.5€ a kilo and someone else will get 6,5€ a kilo - giving an average of 7€ a kilo.


    It’s this lad who’s trying to say the cso can’t count without anything to support that position. As if his view of the price of diesel once last April somewhere in ireland is more insightful that the cso who can check the price of all diesel in all pumps at all times for the past 50 years in ireland.

    But let’s listen to this guy and his personal experience.

    There’s another lad on another forum that also has a great quote - “everyone thinks their opinion is worthwhile but no one cares about your opinion unless it’s backed with facts”.

    You can say what you like but it is real life facts that matter. Averages and percentages won't pay many bills!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭Dinzee Conlee


    karlitob wrote: »
    Well we weren’t talking about him and his ‘real-life’. The OP spoke about a 27% increase in price of lamb and this lad started mouthing off that this wasn’t a great increase in take-home because there was similar increases in diesel, meal and fertiliser. Not personal increases for him - but all round increases in costs. We weren’t taking about him.

    When asked for figures to back up his claims he quotes a price that no one can verify. Clearly if his price was x then someone else’s was higher. This lad isn’t the marker that everyone goes off.

    I’m sure some other lad today will get 7.5€ a kilo and someone else will get 6,5€ a kilo - giving an average of 7€ a kilo.


    It’s this lad who’s trying to say the cso can’t count without anything to support that position. As if his view of the price of diesel once last April somewhere in ireland is more insightful that the cso who can check the price of all diesel in all pumps at all times for the past 50 years in ireland.

    But let’s listen to this guy and his personal experience.

    There’s another lad on another forum that also has a great quote - “everyone thinks their opinion is worthwhile but no one cares about your opinion unless it’s backed with facts”.

    The price this year is very good, no doubt about it. It’s great to get a good price - but getting a good price doesn’t necessarily mean all the increase goes into your back pocket.
    For me, a kind winter has more impact on my bottom line than the price of any inputs...

    My winter this year hasn’t been great - a fodder crop I put in didn’t come to much, so I had increased ration costs to offset this. My lambs didn’t thrive as well as I would have liked as we had a wet enough winter, so again more ration to finish...
    I also had higher mortality than I’d like.

    Now - these things would have happened regardless of price. It’s great the price is good this year to offset my higher costs of production...

    Not trying to say a good price isn’t a good thing :)
    Just an increase in sale price doesn’t automatically mean your profit goes up by the same percentage...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭Dinzee Conlee


    Oh, this might interest you karlitob

    https://www.farmersjournal.ie/teagasc-forecasts-3-increase-in-2021-farm-incomes-604577

    “Rising lamb prices are expected to give a net margin increase per ha of 9%”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    The price this year is very good, no doubt about it. It’s great to get a good price - but getting a good price doesn’t necessarily mean all the increase goes into your back pocket.
    For me, a kind winter has more impact on my bottom line than the price of any inputs...

    My winter this year hasn’t been great - a fodder crop I put in didn’t come to much, so I had increased ration costs to offset this. My lambs didn’t thrive as well as I would have liked as we had a wet enough winter, so again more ration to finish...
    I also had higher mortality than I’d like.

    Now - these things would have happened regardless of price. It’s great the price is good this year to offset my higher costs of production...

    Not trying to say a good price isn’t a good thing :)
    Just an increase in sale price doesn’t automatically mean your profit goes up by the same percentage...

    Thanks for that. And as you’ll see above I didn’t intimate that all the increase goes into your back pocket. On here to learn about things I don’t know. Appreciate the explanation and I can only imagine that there’s probably very little you can control.

    Thanks again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    Oh, this might interest you karlitob

    https://www.farmersjournal.ie/teagasc-forecasts-3-increase-in-2021-farm-incomes-604577

    “Rising lamb prices are expected to give a net margin increase per ha of 9%”

    Thanks - that’s interesting. Hard to know if the other lad thinks I should read something from teagasc or not. All in all, 3% increase is better than nothing but I’m not sure what the trend has been over the last few years. Has it been upwards or fluctuated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭karlitob


    You can say what you like but it is real life facts that matter. Averages and percentages won't pay many bills!

    I can say what I like - and I often do. And the data that’s in the cso figures is real life. These are real life facts. Where else did they get them from.

    Averages and percentages do pay bills - obviously. If the price you got for a lamb was 27% less than last year - instead of what we’re taking about - you’d be quoting statistics left right and centre. Even stats from teagasc which your friend seems to have issue with.

    In that scenario of a price reduction and You sold a lamb for 6€per kilo and I sold mine for €4/k. - you wouldn’t quote your figure as to the reduction. You’d either quote the lowest one (like you’re friend is doing now) or you’d quote the average reduction of 5€/k


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭Green farmer


    If you want to find out more around sheep farming, theres plenty of programmes on tv and youtube to see what the reality is like on the ground. Heres a link to a progressive young fellow to see what the economics of sheep farming is like

    https://youtu.be/ONzGye9wV6g


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭Dinzee Conlee


    karlitob wrote: »
    Thanks - that’s interesting. Hard to know if the other lad thinks I should read something from teagasc or not. All in all, 3% increase is better than nothing but I’m not sure what the trend has been over the last few years. Has it been upwards or fluctuated.

    Sheep farming isn’t doing too bad if you compare it to beef for instance.
    But, sheep farming is a poor return compared to dairy.
    Sheep farming would be even worse if compared to most of farm jobs I think, as would a lot farming enterprises...

    It’s all relative isn’t it?

    I think it’s fair to say though, that sheep farming is poor job. Returns might be up this year, but overall it’s been on a downward path for as long as I remember. I remember we sold lambs in the early 90s for 100punts (so 127euro) those lambs this year might sell you 150euro...
    Not much of an increase in 30 years :(

    But it must be said as well that subsidies have screwed the market...

    A lot of people including myself do it cos they like it. But financially I suspect I would be better off getting a part time job in Lidl or the likes.

    As for Teagasc, it’s easy to give advise when the advise you give doesn’t impact you financially...
    They would have a lot of advisors - offering a 9-5 service to farmers. Let’s not forget a lot of farmers now are part time, so 9-5 isn’t very useful... Some of their advisors wouldn’t be great, some would be very good, but they have to follow the company line - regardless of what they might think personally...
    But, am sure others would have different views on Teagasc...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭kk.man


    karlitob wrote: »
    I’m not gonna get into explaining what an average is. Clearly you didn’t get to all depots - just the one you went to. Whatever way you cut diesel, oil, petrol is cheaper now and has not increased the 30% that you say it has.

    I know nothing about teasasc. Are you trying to intimate that the cso can’t be trusted?
    It was dirt cheap last April/may throughout the country not just in the depot I got it in. Oil collapsed after the Covid-19 went pandemic.

    I remember telling a work colleague what I had done purchasing cheap auto diseal. She is not a farmer and the shock on her face I won't forget. It wasn't a shock of the price it was a shock of the type how could you buy all that diseal and pay out a lump sum for it.
    Only last week I saw her in the petrol station putting diseal in her car I had a look at the price and smiled to myself. It learn me a lesson I'll never give advise to another adult as long as I live. You just can't teach ppl to make money or save it.

    I will post my receipt later tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,068 ✭✭✭Kevhog1988


    kk.man wrote: »
    It was dirt cheap last April/may throughout the country not just in the depot I got it in. Oil collapsed after the Covid-19 went pandemic.

    I remember telling a work colleague what I had done purchasing cheap auto diseal. She is not a farmer and the shock on her face I won't forget. It wasn't a shock of the price it was a shock of the type how could you buy all that diseal and pay out a lump sum for it.
    Only last week I saw her in the petrol station putting diseal in her car I had a look at the price and smiled to myself. It learn me a lesson I'll never give advise to another adult as long as I live. You just can't teach ppl to make money or save it.

    I will post my receipt later tonight.

    Start a thread. I'm happy to read all money making/ cost saving advice lol.


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