Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

ELM327

If you have a good defense and a good running game - incl o line and RB - then the QB should be fine.
Look at Brady's original early years, and the case of HOF QBs on the decline, eg Manning, Elway etc. In their last SB run they were off a cliff but had a great D and a running game.

Anyone making it to the NFL at QB has some level of special talent so should thrive in that scenario. How QBs get burned is throwing them in behind a crap line with no running game and no defense.

Foxtrol

eagle eye wrote: »

You've said basically nothing in all that post. You still haven't explained what type of QB the game has moved away from
Now you throw in bad pocket presence and footwork it seems.

Football is evolving away from non-elite pocket passers with no mobility to scramble or move outside of the pocket. Athleticism and mobility have been my point since your comparison between Herbert and Trask.

Trask is good in the pocket. He's an intelligent QB who's very accurate in the short and medium range. He has an arm too, there's just question marks over his accuracy on deep balls. Based on what I've seen from him he can make it in the NFL.

Trask's tape is littered with poor decisions, he has limited to no mobility, his arm is weak for an NFL starting QB - he has great highlight type touches in the short and medium range but limited velocity and even throws outside of the numbers become floaters, forget about stretching the field. His strengths simply aren't elite enough to overcome his obvious weaknesses.

And this thing about being out in the right system applies to pretty much every QB. If you put a running QB into a team that can't run block he's in big trouble. If you put a pocket passer into a team that can't pass block he's in trouble. And that's not even considering the weapons available.

You're the one that is advocating for a non-elite QB with very poor mobility, not me. I'd similarly push back if someone was claiming a non-elite running QB with very poor throwing was being hyped by someone as being comparable with Herbert.

You've claimed the game hasn't evolved but twice you've been unable to provide a list of recent successful draft picks that fit Trasks traits (a weak NFL arm and no mobility). How many of these recent picks who became starters fit those traits - Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Herbert? Even those that are seen as average to good starters have stronger arms and/or much more mobility than Trask - Jones, Hurts, Lock, Jackson. The guys that fit Trasks profile have been failures or backups that are expected in later round QBs.

Look, I've agreed Trask can make it in the NFL - what I disagree strongly with is your claim that 'there isn't much between' Trask and Herbert - the 6th pick last year who then went on to win rookie of the year. What I can say is that I hope he stays far away from the 49ers unless they want to throw a dart in the 4th round, we already have a QB with limited mobility who's arm strength means the throws he can make are limited.

We're going around in circles so we might as well leave it there - we'll see if Trask bucks the trend and ends entering the league to be rookie of the year, like your comparison, or take the career path of Haskins or White.

Foxtrol

Shedite27 wrote: »

Enjoy the Pro bowls Dak

Well Dak averaged $1m a year for his rookie deal and the Cowboys weren't winning any Super Bowls. The guy deserved to get paid and would have been a lot cheaper if the Jones family didn't drag it out

Foxtrol

nerd69 wrote: »

Equally for a team with a lot of cap this could be ideal

I'm not sure if that is necessarily how it'll play out.

Sure, some players will take a discounted deal for long term security but I'd expect most upper tier talent will accept short term deals so they won't miss out on big paydays when the cap likely explodes, with fans back and the new TV deals. For short term deals most players will likely want to go to contenders to look their best and very few of them are those teams with big cap space.

Even for longer deals, most teams can offer similar sort of deals to the high cap teams - just backloaded contracts with guarantees.

Where the high cap teams can likely clean up is in the mid-lower talent levels, they be squeezed hard but few of those type of players will suddenly turn a team into contenders.

Blut2

Foxtrol wrote: »

Sure, some players will take a discounted deal for long term security but I'd expect most upper tier talent will accept short term deals so they won't miss out on big paydays when the cap likely explodes, with fans back and the new TV deals. For short term deals most players will likely want to go to contenders to look their best and very few of them are those teams with big cap space.

I think for any top tier player under 28 hitting FA there will be a lot of attraction to taking a 1 or 2 year deal, at a relatively discounted rate, at a potential title contender. Chiefs/Bills/Packers/Bucs/Rams/Ravens/Browns should all be very attractive for this. Not that most of them have much cap space, mind you..

After 1/2 years, and potentially winning a ring, those players can then hit the market again and get a longer term deal when the salary cap has gone back well over $200mn. It'll probably work out the same financially as inking a long term, but lower value deal this year.

nerd69 wrote: »

Think copper and Zeke have no garintees past this year though right? I'd wager cooper gone and a major restructure for both at the very least

Both Amari and Zeke's 2022 salaries are fully guaranteed on March 21st of this month if they're still with the team. So the earliest they can cut either is 2023 realistically.

eagle eye

Foxtrol wrote:

You've claimed the game hasn't evolved but twice you've been unable to provide a list of recent successful draft picks that fit Trasks traits (a weak NFL arm and no mobility). How many of these recent picks who became starters fit those traits - Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Herbert? Even those that are seen as average to good starters have stronger arms and/or much more mobility than Trask - Jones, Hurts, Lock, Jackson. The guys that fit Trasks profile have been failures or backups that are expected in later round QBs.

Why would I need to pick out recent draft picks. I'll just go to the top table.
Last five years, Tom Brady has won three Superbowls, Nick Foles has one and Patrick Mahomes. That's one mobile QB winning a Superbowl in the last five years.
What about their opponents, well Tom Brady, Jimmy Garappolo, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes have one loss apiece. Again that's one mobile QB and the same one who has a win that have been in Superbowls in the last five years.

As for Trask, you are giving your opinion on him which I disagree with. We'll see in time and it favours you as less make it than succeed.

Foxtrol

Comp picks have been announced. Looks like all of the media got the minority candidate hire rules incorrect, for example 49ers have 2 3rd round comp picks this year rather than what was reported previously (they said they'd have a 3rd round pick for 3 years in a row).

Will definitely impact how teams approach FA.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1369734213205979138?s=20

Foxtrol

eagle eye wrote: »

Why would I need to pick out recent draft picks. I'll just go to the top table.
Last five years, Tom Brady has won three Superbowls, Nick Foles has one and Patrick Mahomes. That's one mobile QB winning a Superbowl in the last five years.
What about their opponents, well Tom Brady, Jimmy Garappolo, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes have one loss apiece. Again that's one mobile QB and the same one who has a win that have been in Superbowls in the last five years.

As for Trask, you are giving your opinion on him which I disagree with. We'll see in time and it favours you as less make it than succeed.

It looks like you're falling into that 'QB wins' trap again - giving way too much credit for team victories on the QB.

Even taking QB wins as being valid, I'm not sure how that list specifically counters my point. I never said you can't win with a pure pocket passer, I said the game is evolving away from them aside from the very elite ones. All but one on the list I'd call either elite, has mobility, or the team is open to or has already moved away from (I might be generous in even giving you 1).

Brady - elite in many areas outside of mobility and Patriots decided not to pay him
Foles - moved twice and has rotated between backup and a poor starter
Mahomes - mobile and elite in many other areas
Jimmy - his lack of mobility and arm strength arguably cost the team the Super Bowl and the team has been looking for an upgrade the last 2 off-seasons
Goff - team gave away picks to trade him away (actually pretty mobile)
Ryan - probably the closest to the point you're trying to make but he's had 3 losing seasons where his limitations have showed (his team will potentially pick his successor in the draft despite the cap implications)

Looking at recent drafts is much better at showing how the QB position is evolving - if it wasn't you'd still see the same number of non-mobile, non-elite pocket passing QBs being drafted and becoming starters as we did in the past.

ELM327

QB is an interesting spot and there's no denying the game is evolving. Ignoring Mahomes who - running for his life in the SB aside - is actually a top level passer and mobile QB.
You have Brady who's a top tier non mobile QB and you have Lamar Jackson on the other side, top tier of what he does, an RB who throws occasionally. Which one of those is winning the big game?

Foles - a mediocre passer and not very mobile, has more SBs than Lamar. And the same amount as Mahomes.

You can win your division and win a few games in the post season but you're not winning a ring unless you have a good to great pocket passer back there.

Foxtrol

ELM327 wrote: »

QB is an interesting spot and there's no denying the game is evolving. Ignoring Mahomes who - running for his life in the SB aside - is actually a top level passer and mobile QB.
You have Brady who's a top tier non mobile QB and you have Lamar Jackson on the other side, top tier of what he does, an RB who throws occasionally. Which one of those is winning the big game?

Foles - a mediocre passer and not very mobile, has more SBs than Lamar. And the same amount as Mahomes.

You can win your division and win a few games in the post season but you're not winning a ring unless you have a good to great pocket passer back there.

Aside from hyping Foles due to the SB win, I agree with all of that. I'm not saying mobility is more important than passing - it is clearly a passing league.

Teams have however embraced how much mobility can mask other issues within the team and they are drafting that way.

Foxtrol

Foxtrol wrote: »

Comp picks have been announced. Looks like all of the media got the minority candidate hire rules incorrect, for example 49ers have 2 3rd round comp picks this year rather than what was reported previously (they said they'd have a 3rd round pick for 3 years in a row).

Will definitely impact how teams approach FA.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1369734213205979138?s=20

So apparently it was the NFL that didn't know the rules and accidentally awarded an extra pick to 49ers and have now taken it back...

Foxtrol

Carnage to get below the cap continues - Chiefs cut both of their tackles.

Harsh on them coming off injuries but just another example of the NFL being a business. Chiefs now have 2 huge holes, plus backups to fill, and are still just over the cap.

Xavi6

Schwartz AND Fisher on the same day, carnage

cosatron

Foxtrol wrote: »

Carnage to get below the cap continues - Chiefs cut both of their tackles.

Harsh on them coming off injuries but just another example of the NFL being a business. Chiefs now have 2 huge holes, plus backups to fill, and are still just over the cap.

there is some very good o-lineman available now, whatever team has cap space and doesn't make a decent fist of up grading their roster, someone needs to be sacked.

Shedite27

Xavi6 wrote: »

Schwartz AND Fisher on the same day, carnage

Sure they were grand without them in the Superbowl

Xavi6

Schwartz AND Fisher on the same day, carnage

el Fenomeno

I've a feeling Fisher will be back on a new, more cap-friendly deal with the Chiefs

Foxtrol

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I've a feeling Fisher will be back on a new, more cap-friendly deal with the Chiefs

If he was so interested in coming back he could have just restructured his current deal.

He might return but I know I wouldn't be hyped to return to a team if I was performing at a high level for them over an extended period and they then cut me when I was injured.

The_Honeybadger

Offensive linemen in particular seem to be getting hit hard with these cuts. That is brutal from the chiefs today

It’s supposedly a deep offensive line draft class, there will be some run on them by the looks of it

D9Male

Makes Jags move on Robinson all the more puzzling.

Itssoeasy

Foxtrol wrote: »

Carnage to get below the cap continues - Chiefs cut both of their tackles.

Harsh on them coming off injuries but just another example of the NFL being a business. Chiefs now have 2 huge holes, plus backups to fill, and are still just over the cap.

An ESPN reporter had a report about this week and included a quote from a team GM or front office person(I can’t remember which) and they were saying it was going to be “a massacre” and that was when the cap was projected to be higher than it turned out to be. A lot of good players will fall between two stools this week because of the numbers.

letowski

It’s a pretty good draft for Tackles but it’s surprising that both starters were cut.

letowski

Rumours online the Schwartz will retire due to the back surgery he had.

Fisher has that achilles of course.

el Fenomeno

Foxtrol wrote: »

If he was so interested in coming back he could have just restructured his current deal.

He might return but I know I wouldn't be hyped to return to a team if I was performing at a high level for them over an extended period and they then cut me when I was injured.

I was thinking more along the lines of the Chiefs wanted him to restructure because of the injury, he didn't want to so they cut him. He might get a rude awakening in FA and I don't think interest will be huge given its an achilles, so he might end up resigning with the Chiefs.

Of course, I could be wrong. It's been known to happen.

D9Male

Newton returning to Foxboro for another year.

Foxtrol

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I was thinking more along the lines of the Chiefs wanted him to restructure because of the injury, he didn't want to so they cut him. He might get a rude awakening in FA and I don't think interest will be huge given its an achilles, so he might end up resigning with the Chiefs.

Of course, I could be wrong. It's been known to happen.

I get that but personally I wouldn't be happy going back to people who treated me that way.

Even if he doesn't have a big market initially, he could sit out and recuperate - some team is bound to lose a tackle through injury during camp or early in the year and give him a better deal. They should be able to bring in players for medicals as the summer goes along.

letowski

Clever way to reduce the cap hit. It's essentially a 1-year extension, but the cap hit is spread out over 4 years. It saves $19m, so they'll probably be able to keep Shaq Barrett too.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1370393521987936257

Foxtrol

letowski wrote: »

Clever way to reduce the cap hit. It's essentially a 1-year extension, but the cap hit is spread out over 4 years. It saves $19m, so they'll probably be able to keep Shaq Barrett too.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1370393521987936257

Think that is basically the norm at this point for aging QBs when teams are trying to squeeze out the last bit of their window. Patriots did it for the last few years of Brady, Steelers have several voidable years for Ben, and Brees has a few also.

Very smart but it is like buying things on your credit card, eventually all those void year hit - Patriots found that out last year and Saints will see it this year. It Tampa can be successful again it is obviously worth it.

Oat23

Peak off-season behaviour - https://www.totalprosports.com/2021/03/12/bears-fan-takes-hammer-to-the-head-wakes-up-asks-if-chicago-traded-for-russell-wilson-yet-pic-tweets/

Itssoeasy

Drew brees has announced his retirement from the NFL after 20 seasons and 15 with the New Orleans saints.

He and his family should plan to be in Ohio in five years time.