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Snow/Ice warning for Leinster, Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Connacht

Meteorite58

Time to kick off a thread on the potential for snowfall over the weekend coming.

In general a lot of mixed precipitation with mostly rainfall for the Southern half of the country and wintry weather risk increases from the midlands up to Northern counties. Beginning Saturday looking mostly wet and possibly wintry in places especially the E and atm mainly of rain and sleet and snow possible on Mountains especially Wicklow.
From early Sunday morning fronts will move in from the W and slowly move up the country moving increasingly into cold air and turning wintry and currently looks like the potential for snowfall in the W, NW, N and midlands with accumulations to low levels being shown on some models. Following fronts early Monday might wash out a lot of the snow that fell apart from the N and another front later Monday could lead to some more wintry weather in N counties.

Frost in areas Saturday night, less cold Sunday night, coldest in Northern half of the country.

High rainfall totals in Southern counties.

Blustery on Saturday and less windy on Sunday.

Difficult driving conditions more so in the Northern half of the country and would think it could be quite wet snow getting very slushy on the roads Sunday evening.

Possible Yellow warnings for snow/ wintry conditions.

So just the opening post as I see it at the moment and no doubt the finer details will be known over the coming days with plenty of contributions from other posters.

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Nqp15hhu

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Level: Advisory

Type: Advisory
Message: Very unsettled weather this weekend with wet and windy conditions bringing a risk of localised flooding. Cold also, with wintry falls of snow and icy conditions.Affected Regions: Carlow, Cavan, Clare, Cork, Donegal, Dublin, Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Laois, Limerick, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Meath, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford, Westmeath, Wexford, and Wicklow

Issue Time: Friday 29/1/2021 14:00Expected Onset: Friday 29/1/2021 22:00Expires: Sunday 31/1/2021 23:59

Their warnings and advisory's are very vague.

JCX BXC

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A weather advisory = a weather forecast. Seems unnecessary unless its heralding a very severe storm or something.

It's either sufficiently bad for a warning or it isnt? Is a weather advisory like a pale yellow warning now?

Advisorys are generally issued in advance of weather warnings for systems in which there is uncertainty about intensity of wind/snow/rain/cold.

Mount Vesuvius

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A weather advisory = a weather forecast. Seems unnecessary unless its heralding a very severe storm or something.

It's either sufficiently bad for a warning or it isnt? Is a weather advisory like a pale yellow warning now?

Personally I think it's Met Éireann's way of covering the bases as in 48 hrs notice to something that could potentially be more worthy of an advisory in due course.

Nqp15hhu

Why did you BOLD the section about Ulster?

Slashermcguirk

To be honest I feared this last weekend in Dublin 5 and we ended up getting pasted in snow. It can can be such a fine line with some parts of Dublin getting a lot of snow and 10km away getting nothing. Often we would get less or nothing while west Dublin gets pasted

esposito wrote: »

How many times have we experienced that before. Anyway if it means we get the real deal (fingers crossed) in a weeks time then I will put up with it!

Donegal Ken

The latest Met Éireann HARMONIE high resolution run has the band of rain extending over much of Ireland on Sunday morning with some parts of the northeast of Ulster staying mostly dry. They issue a advisory ahead of possible weather elements meeting the criteria for warnings to be issued. Most likely a rainfall warning will be issued for some southern parts of Ireland on Saturday morning and snow ice warnings been issued for parts of Connacht, Ulster and Leinster for Sunday.

The One Doctor

You're far too touchy for an internet forum. People aren't trying to annoy you, you're just taking offence at everything.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: @Nqp15hhu. As poster states above. And, nobody is out to get you.

Back on topic....

sicknotexi

Gfs para has some snow interest for a lot of us on Sunday.

gerrybhoy

Difference in temps past few hours here in D15, very cold now,fire on,beer in mitt,American pie on,kids in cellar (joke)

Artane2002

if the charts that Sleety Rain posted come off then tomorrow might be the worst day of the winter here, not looking forward to it!

DOCARCH

gerrybhoy wrote: »

(joke)

American Pie?

Gonzo

GFS 12z backing off the idea of snow this weekend, more cold rain/sleet conditions.

24-574UK.GIF?29-12

tomorrows potential looks alot more messy.

Sunday see's a band of rain push north with some sleet or wet snow on the leading edge but it quickly turns back to cold rain.

54-574UK.GIF?29-12

GFS models show no lying snow anywhere tomorrow but a transitional skim/dusting in the north-west on Sunday evening.

57-780UK.GIF?29-12

gerrybhoy

DOCARCH wrote: »

American Pie?

Donegal Ken

Update from Met Éireann on this weekend.

Unsettled weekend ahead as the battle of warm and cold air poses multiple risk-29th Jan 2021

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Meteorite58

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Update from Met Éireann on this weekend.

Unsettled weekend ahead as the battle of warm and cold air poses multiple risk-29th Jan 2021

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Explained well.

Meteorite58

ECM back to showing heavier snowfall than the previous run, showing more wintry weather initially further S on this run also and carrying the front further N and prolonging the risk of snow in the NW and N counties into Monday.

Big rainfall accumulations along Southern counties.

Meteorite58

The East will feel the wind tomorrow, strong E'ly onshore with a windchill.

lostweekend3

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The East will feel the wind tomorrow, strong E'ly onshore with a windchill.

Bit will we feel the snow? Probably not tomorrow, perhaps Sunday

Meteorite58

Looks mostly rain/ sleety tomorrow but some snow on higher ground is possible especially around Dublin / Wicklow mountains

Snowbiee21

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Bit will we feel the snow? Probably not tomorrow, perhaps Sunday

Don't worry, we have onshore easterly winds gusting to 80 km/h combined with rain and near spring tides to content with tomorrow.

How wonderful.

Meteorite58

Connaught, parts of Leinster , maybe down as far as parts of Tipperary and edging into Northern counties look to have potential for snow on Sunday. GFS bit of an upgrade tonight would reckon.

Meteorite58

The colder airmass not budging much as the front advances tomorrow, stalls, retreats and dissipates . It would appear that right at it's Northern edge where it meets the cold air could see wintry weather tomorrow, sleet and some snow possible would reckon, further South only on the highest ground perhaps.

Nqp15hhu

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The colder airmass not budging much as the front advances tomorrow, stalls, retreats and dissipates . It would appear that right at it's Northern edge where it meets the cold air could see wintry weather tomorrow, sleet and some snow possible would reckon, further South only on the highest ground perhaps.

A lot of people are calling this a short spell but I have been observing this.. all of the predicted pushes from the Atlantic, have so far ended up further south with each run.

I think we *may* but in for a longer cold spell.

Meteorite58

WRF has really upped the snow potential for Sunday into Monday and yes Nqp15hhu there is the potential of a substantial amount of snow later Monday night or early Tuesday morning in the Northern third of the country.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

A lot of people are calling this a short spell but I have been observing this.. all of the predicted pushes from the Atlantic, have so far ended up further south with each run.

I think we *may* but in for a longer cold spell.

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Meteorite58

nacho libre wrote: »

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Was thinking that myself.

ARPEGE 18Z now looking more active too for Sunday and bringing it into Monday also. On the 12Z showing a big dump of snow early Tuesday from the midlands up to Northern counties and continuing there into Weds ???

Also to note that ARPEGE has a warm bias so when it is showing snow potential the possibility certainly rises. Not great 850 hPa temps but the pressure is low enough.

Meteorite58

High Spring tides early Monday morning along the South coast might prove problematic with swollen rivers trying to drain into the sea.

Donegal Ken

nacho libre wrote: »

The funny thing is this cold spell could yet deliver more snow to some areas than the fi chase for a more sustained cold spell.

Thats true many of the heavier falls of snow in this country come from not very notable cold spells. Doesn't always take very cold weather. I think many have underplayed things also. Interesting watching these runs over the past few days. Haven't really been watching the end of next week i am more focused on this weekend and the start of the new week.

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z upgrade again, decent amounts now showing up on the charts.

Initial snow in parts may be followed by rain so some areas will see snow washed out perhaps but good chance of quite large areas with snow on the ground lasting into Monday would have thought.