What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

Sam Russell

For all the success of vaccinations in the UK, they have still had over 2,000 deaths in the last seven days.

Their performance in tackling the actual disease has not been good by any measure. Johnson's boomster approach never boomed.

Stark

Their death rate seems to be dropping a lot though. It was nearly 1,000 a day at one point. Talking to friends in the UK, the priority order seems to be a mess, seems to be going by postcode rather than vulnerability category. 20 year olds with no underlying conditions getting vaccinated because they live in a borough with mostly young people and oversupply, while vulnerable wait for vaccines in boroughs with undersupply.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

For all the success of vaccinations in the UK, they have still had over 2,000 deaths in the last seven days.

Their performance in tackling the actual disease has not been good by any measure. Johnson's boomster approach never boomed.

I think what we have seen in the UK and in Ireland, is that we were earlier this time on the next wave. We both seem to be coming out of it, while a lot of countries in Europe are are in the early days or are struggling to keep infections down.

Stark

Stark wrote: »

Their death rate seems to be dropping a lot though. It was nearly 1,000 a day at one point. Talking to friends in the UK, the priority order seems to be a mess, seems to be going by postcode rather than vulnerability category. 20 year olds with no underlying conditions getting vaccinated because they live in a borough with mostly young people and oversupply, while vulnerable wait for vaccines in boroughs with undersupply.

Some boroughs are vaccinating a lot quicker and are entering the next phases ahead of others. There are also some areas where the take up has been worryingly low, particularly among the BAME community.

It is a stretch to call it a mess though.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

I think what we have seen in the UK and in Ireland, is that we were earlier this time on the next wave. We both seem to be coming out of it, while a lot of countries in Europe are are in the early days or are struggling to keep infections down.

Looking at the figures on Worldometer.com, show the UK figures for deaths at 28 times ours, but the population difference is 13 times - that is more than double the rate over the whole pandemic, even though the UK definition of death caused by Covid is much more restrictive than that used by Ireland.

The UK figures are appalling. Hopefully, the vaccine being deployed rapidly will help reverse this position.

is_that_so

This came up on the testing thread. Thought it worth sharing here, specifically the AZ part.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1366701591932329988

robinph

Aegir wrote: »

Some boroughs are vaccinating a lot quicker and are entering the next phases ahead of others. There are also some areas where the take up has been worryingly low, particularly among the BAME community.

It is a stretch to call it a mess though.

" Worryingly low" in the context of the UK and specific communities is still higher than the likes of France is managing. Whatever about any problems that may exist between the EU and AstraZenica, if individual countries are not making use of the vaccines they do have it is a problem. Not seen anything to suggest that Ireland has vaccines sat in the fridge, and Ireland gets more than its fair dose of UK media and has plenty of anti UK sentiment for anywhere.

If France or Germany (or anywhere) is leaving vaccines unused because they have let the population think there is some problem with it having been developed by a UK University, or manufacture directed by a Swedish company and there is a legal argument over some contract, then that countries leaders are failing their population.

It's known from way before coronavirus existed that certain countries tended to have low take up of vaccination programs. They have had a year of people sat around doing nothing when they could have been priming their population on how vaccines worked and getting them ready to take whatever appeared. That isn't an EU failing, Ireland doesn't have the problem, it isn't an AstraZenica problem, the vaccines are approved by EU health bodies and each country has approved them.

It's a problem with local populations that don't belive in vaccines, and that is what needs fixing, and quickly.

robinph

Stark wrote: »

Their death rate seems to be dropping a lot though. It was nearly 1,000 a day at one point. Talking to friends in the UK, the priority order seems to be a mess, seems to be going by postcode rather than vulnerability category. 20 year olds with no underlying conditions getting vaccinated because they live in a borough with mostly young people and oversupply, while vulnerable wait for vaccines in boroughs with undersupply.

The priority order seems to have gone wrong just at the point I am due to be called up. They have started calling in the next group down from me and they can book in at one of mass vaccination hubs and should only take about a week and a half for that group to be dealt with before they start on the next one down again. Meanwhile the group I'm in have to wait for a call from the GPs, the group is several times larger than any of the other groups, and the capacity in gp surgeries to deal with the numbers is way lower than hubs which I could easily get to.

They started on my group 2 weeks ago, and I think when you get an invite it's generally about a week later you might get your spot with the GPs. Still no sign of me getting my call up yet though and they are not releasing details about how far through the group they are.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Looking at the figures on Worldometer.com, show the UK figures for deaths at 28 times ours, but the population difference is 13 times - that is more than double the rate over the whole pandemic, even though the UK definition of death caused by Covid is much more restrictive than that used by Ireland.

are they? what is the Irish definition of a death caused by Covid?

you can't compare the UK and Ireland. The UK has an older population and number of large densely populated cities with a lot of high rise buildings, along with a well developed public transport system that the people in those cities rely on.

Ireland has one city with a rudimental public transport system and a very minimal level of high rise living.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

are they? what is the Irish definition of a death caused by Covid?

you can't compare the UK and Ireland. The UK has an older population and number of large densely populated cities with a lot of high rise buildings, along with a well developed public transport system that the people in those cities rely on.

Ireland has one city with a rudimental public transport system and a very minimal level of high rise living.

Over 65 in Ireland = 19.5%, whereas over 65 in UK = 18.5% - both figures from a Google search. You could have done that yourself - only took .25 milliseconds.

So you can compare UK and Ireland.

Irish definition is anyone tested positive for Covid, and anyone deemed by doctor to have clinical symptoms.

UK definition - anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive test. It now includes those in nursing home, but originally did not, and required death to occur in hospital. Not sure of current exact definition.

I think there is a significant difference. Excess deaths shows this - you could try a Google search on this if you like.

robinph

Sam Russell wrote: »

UK definition - anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive test. It now includes those in nursing home, but originally did not, and required death to occur in hospital. Not sure of current exact definition.

Those discrepancies were changed fairly early on, think May time possibly, and a large number of extra cases added to the totals in one block. The ONS stats will include any cases regardless of when the test or death occurred, just the rolling daily total that had the 28 day thing. You still won't get included in the numbers if you fall off a ladder doing DIY during your isolation after a positive test. But you will be included in the ONS stats if you take more than 28 days to succumb.

Klonker

robinph wrote: »

" Worryingly low" in the context of the UK and specific communities is still higher than the likes of France is managing. Whatever about any problems that may exist between the EU and AstraZenica, if individual countries are not making use of the vaccines they do have it is a problem. Not seen anything to suggest that Ireland has vaccines sat in the fridge, and Ireland gets more than its fair dose of UK media and has plenty of anti UK sentiment for anywhere.

If France or Germany (or anywhere) is leaving vaccines unused because they have let the population think there is some problem with it having been developed by a UK University, or manufacture directed by a Swedish company and there is a legal argument over some contract, then that countries leaders are failing their population.

It's known from way before coronavirus existed that certain countries tended to have low take up of vaccination programs. They have had a year of people sat around doing nothing when they could have been priming their population on how vaccines worked and getting them ready to take whatever appeared. That isn't an EU failing, Ireland doesn't have the problem, it isn't an AstraZenica problem, the vaccines are approved by EU health bodies and each country has approved them.

It's a problem with local populations that don't belive in vaccines, and that is what needs fixing, and quickly.

I agree that it's not an EU issue. But just on the take up here compared to France, I don't really remember the government doing too much to encourage vaccine take up here either. I know we'd have high vaccine take up here historically but I think so far take up has even been better than could be expected, I don't know figures but sounds like over 90‰ in HCW and in care homes and I'd expect this to hold up for all over 65s anyway. My point being I don't think government messaging is a big driver in this, I think us as a collective nation have just bought into it more than others. Why? I don't know for sure but it's a collective of reasons some being;

We are a reasonably well educated nation; we are a relatively trusting nation in terms of the people in charge (government, public health), we have a lower percentage of BAME in our population, stats across the world show they are less likely to take the vaccines so far. I think the fact our measures have been longer and harsher than the rest of Europe so far in general, some people feel like the any way we'll get much loosening of restrictions is for the majority of us vaccinated. Other countries might not have the same level of frustration as their restrictions are not as harsh. Finally, I feel the media (and probably NPHET and government too) are probably helping with the take up but I'm not sure if this is on purpose. There is a fear here of catching the virus that's higher than a lot of other places I feel as the likes of RTE very much highlight the deaths and serious cases etc. Has there been a day since last March that coronavirus wasnt the top story in the news here even when very low cases in the summer? I was in another EU country during the summer and coronavirus was well down the news order. You can add the daily announcement of cases and deaths which most other countries don't do.

Anyway that's my ramblings on why I think take up here is high so far and that I guess the government have helped that but not directly by promoting the vaccine but indirectly by putting fear in the consequences of catching covid and through the level of restrictions imposed here.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Over 65 in Ireland = 19.5%, whereas over 65 in UK = 18.5% - both figures from a Google search. You could have done that yourself - only took .25 milliseconds.

So you can compare UK and Ireland.

Average age in Ireland 36.5. Average in the UK 40.5.

More importantly,

population density UK 281 people/sq km, of which 83% live in urban areas.
population density Ireland 72 people/sq km, of which 63% live in urban areas.

Covid loves closely packed populations, as you can see from the stars in Spain and Italy and, closer to home, Ireland if you compare the deaths in Sligo compared to Dublin (or Dublin and anywhere for that matter).

robinph

Klonker wrote: »

I agree that it's not an EU issue. But just on the take up here compared to France, I don't really remember the government doing too much to encourage vaccine take up here either.

Yeah, not actually sure why UK and Ireland tend to have such a good take up compared to the likes of France, although it not surprising that UK and Ireland are similar just by having essentially the same population interested in the same things and consuming the same media. Nothing I can really think of about encouraging vaccine take up done in the UK by government, although there was a segment by a celebrity doctor on one of the shows the other week debunking various vaccine myths. Seemed to be answering questions that nobody but a very small bunch of people even had though. With 90% + take up among the older age groups done so far it is very good sign.

But despite the UK and Ireland not having a problem they needed to deal with in vaccine take up, other countries did have and they knew it from years ago. Whilst this time last year it wasn't clear if vaccines would work, if they were going to be working you need people to take them, and countries with known vaccine hesitancy should have been directing their energies at that. It was known early on that vaccines were one of the only ways out of this other than just waiting for the virus to fizzle out of its own accord.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

Average age in Ireland 36.5. Average in the UK 40.5.

More importantly,

population density UK 281 people/sq km, of which 83% live in urban areas.
population density Ireland 72 people/sq km, of which 63% live in urban areas.

Covid loves closely packed populations, as you can see from the stars in Spain and Italy and, closer to home, Ireland if you compare the deaths in Sligo compared to Dublin (or Dublin and anywhere for that matter).

The recognised age risk for Covid is over 65, and I gave the figures of 18% for UK and 19.5% for Ireland. Quoting average or mean age is not relevant. Also, we had very high figures of infections for border counties because of NI cases spreading over the border. No population densities there, just 'visitors'.

There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics. There are always figures that can be selected to 'prove' a point - even if they are irrelevant.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics. There are always figures that can be selected to 'prove' a point - even if they are irrelevant.

prove a point, or score points?

why not compare Ireland with Denmark, Finland or Norway, or is that comparison not comfortable for you?

I guess you'll ignore that, the way you completely ignored my point about population density as well.

padjocollins

what if astra zeneca gave immunity for years more than the others ....

https://www.marketingweek.com/mark-ritson-winner-covid-vaccine-brand-battle/

dogbert27

padjocollins wrote: »

what if astra zeneca gave immunity for years more than the others ....

https://www.marketingweek.com/mark-ritson-winner-covid-vaccine-brand-battle/

Where in the article does it say this?

The article is actually about how AZ is losing the brand war in vaccines:

"In both France and Sweden, recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine have reported side effects in such numbers hospitals in both countries have requested a pause in the vaccination and a switch to either the Pfizer or Moderna alternatives once they become available."

Sweden, where Astra Zeneca are also based, do not want it.

The article does not paste a rosy picture for AZ as to what your hypothetical question implies.

AngeloArgue

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56242617

France approves AZ vaccination for adults Between 65-74

"The French government says older people with pre-existing conditions can now get AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, revising its stance on the issue.

"People affected by co-morbidities can be vaccinated with AstraZeneca, including those aged between 65 and 74," the health minister said.

Last month France approved use of the vaccine for under-65s only, citing lack of data for older people."

AngeloArgue

dogbert27 wrote: »

AZ is losing the brand war in vaccines

No doubt assisted by negative political and media spin emanating out of those countries

dogbert27

AngeloArgue wrote: »

No doubt assisted by negative political and media spin emanating out of those countries

They let the UK government politicise and nationalise what should have been sold by AZ as a global vaccine.

The UK government were even pushing for the Union Jack to be put on the branding which did get knocked back.

On top of that AZ still haven't come out of the contract row clean.

They should have been speaking for themselves as a company instead of letting Boris tell the world that the British vaccine was first past the post and therefore British is best. :rolleyes:

robinph

dogbert27 wrote: »

They should have been speaking for themselves as a company instead of letting Boris tell the world that the British vaccine was first past the post and therefore British is best. :rolleyes:

When did the UK make that claim? Before or after they vaccinated the first person outside of trials using the Pfizer vaccine, and made a massive song an dance about that?

dogbert27

dogbert27 wrote: »

They let the UK government politicise and nationalise what should have been sold by AZ as a global vaccine.

The UK government were even pushing for the Union Jack to be put on the branding which did get knocked back.

On top of that AZ still haven't come out of the contract row clean.

They should have been speaking for themselves as a company instead of letting Boris tell the world that the British vaccine was first past the post and therefore British is best. :rolleyes:

that's very true.

except it isn't.

none of it.

dogbert27

Aegir wrote: »

that's very true.

except it isn't.

none of it.

You're right. It was Matt Hancock who was painting it as the British success

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-oxford-approved-matt-hancock-germany-netherlands-b1780320.html

But the "Union Unit" did request the Union Jack be placed on the packaging:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/27/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits

And
Ian Jones, a professor of virology at Britain’s University of Reading, told Reuters that the plethora of upbeat statements hasn’t benefited the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine candidate.

“I don’t want to take away from the fact everybody has worked very hard and (the vaccine) is fundamentally safe and sound,” he said. “But reporting has always had a slightly nationalistic tone, which I don’t think has been helpful.”

So it has been felt even within the UK that the reporting had a nationalistic tone.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine-sp-idUSKBN28Y0XU

dogbert27

dogbert27 wrote: »

You're right. It was Matt Hancock who was painting it as the British success

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-oxford-approved-matt-hancock-germany-netherlands-b1780320.html

it is a British success. Didn't see anything about Britain is best. Maybe that's just you extrapolating it.

dogbert27 wrote: »

But the "Union Unit" did request the Union Jack be placed on the packaging:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/27/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits

the union unit "Reportedly" suggested a union flag put on there, but it was rejected. Hardly the UK government pushing for British branding, is it.

That is just the British media being the British media and making a big deal out of something pretty minor.

dogbert27 wrote: »

And
Ian Jones, a professor of virology at Britain’s University of Reading, told Reuters that the plethora of upbeat statements hasn’t benefited the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine candidate.

“I don’t want to take away from the fact everybody has worked very hard and (the vaccine) is fundamentally safe and sound,” he said. “But reporting has always had a slightly nationalistic tone, which I don’t think has been helpful.”

So it has been felt even within the UK that the reporting had a nationalistic tone.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine-sp-idUSKBN28Y0XU

heaven forbid a country pats itself on the back on the success of it's vaccine rollout.

dogbert27

Aegir wrote: »

it is a British success. Didn't see anything about Britain is best. Maybe that's just you extrapolating it.



the union unit "Reportedly" suggested a union flag put on there, but it was rejected. Hardly the UK government pushing for British branding, is it.

That is just the British media being the British media and making a big deal out of something pretty minor.



heaven forbid a country pats itself on the back on the success of it's vaccine rollout.

That article is from Dec. 24th before the roll out. It was about the reporting of the vaccine in itself.

dogbert27

dogbert27 wrote: »

That article is from Dec. 24th before the roll out. It was about the reporting of the vaccine in itself.

Heaven forbid a country pats itself on the back for the way it has developed and brought a vaccine to market.

By this time, production was under way, the roll out planned and it was all thanks to a massive national effort.

padjocollins

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/02/covid-germany-and-france-under-pressure-to-shift-oxford-vaccine

Sam Russell

Deleted

McGiver

Sam Russell wrote:

Deleted

What and why?