Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Paulownia

maestroamado wrote: »

United country... i think it has already started, say 10 years...

I really don’t see that, and who is going to run it and cope with the financial side of it?

maestroamado

Paulownia wrote: »

I really don’t see that, and who is going to run it and cope with the financial side of it?

I think Boris is trying to bring the EU, US into the equation on the funding side of Northern Ireland, basically buy a United Ireland as it were,
USA already on board because of the GFA, EU now kinda on board as they helped create two separate borders for North.
I may be completely CRAZY as most people seem to think but is what i see.
I actually think it likely be a good solution.
No i haven't open the bottle yet...

Who will run it???

Paulownia

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Stop
This is nonsense.

I thought it was a serious question, hardly nonsense, the UK is pouring money in and it’s still a depressing place financially

Leroy42

maestroamado wrote: »

United country... i think it has already started, say 10 years...

So the answer to the DUP complaining about being distanced from the UK is to completely remove them and force them into a union they don't want?

That might end up being the end game but it certainly is not what the conversation that the DUP are looking for.
They want the NIP to be ripped up, for things to go back they way they were.

The easiest way to solve the problem is for the UK to reenter the SM/CU. The NIP is the solution to the UK decision to leave both of them, not as many think a result of Brexit itself. Brexit could have been delivered, as TM's deal showed, without splitting NI from mainland GB.

So the only conversation that needs to be had is an internal UK one. Nothing the US, Dublin, EU or anyone else can do to solve the clear separation between the two parts of the Uk over the future direction.

Johnson, his government, the HoC and the voters have all decided that this is the way to go, so the DUP complaining about must 1st go through that process. Uk will then decide whether it wants to continue with the deal that they agreed or what alternative to the deal, which is acceptable to EU, it would be able to work with.

The EU have laid out the options for the last number of years, the UK choose the one it did. Hard to see that after all that Johnson will change direction.

But it is entirely up to him.

ancapailldorcha

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You reckon?

This has been quite a waste of time.

maestroamado wrote: »

If you want to criticize without having a view i would call that "whinging"

Don't bother wasting your valuable time replying..

Stop bickering both of you.

redcup342

maestroamado wrote: »

I think Boris is trying to bring the EU, US into the equation on the funding side of Northern Ireland, basically buy a United Ireland as it were,
USA already on board because of the GFA, EU now kinda on board as they helped create two separate borders for North.
I may be completely CRAZY as most people seem to think but is what i see.
I actually think it likely be a good solution.
No i haven't open the bottle yet...

Who will run it???

Fianna Fáil wouldn't go near reunification at the moment. Too many problems to resolve and the party has no appetite for it.

Seth Brundle

So looks like the British government, like the DUP, are discussing NI/GB trade in meetings with terrorist & organised crime gangs...

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1392436286066151424

maestroamado

redcup342 wrote: »

Fianna Fáil wouldn't go near reunification at the moment. Too many problems to resolve and the party has no appetite for it.

Fianna Fail will lose all credibility if they do not want a UI, that's what they say they have always said they about, they will likely be absolved by SF when move towards this goal...

BonnieSituation

maestroamado wrote: »

Fianna Fail will lose all credibility if they do not want a UI, that's what they say they have always said they about, they will likely be absolved by SF when move towards this goal...

Fianna Fáil have long lost any credibility. They're done for. It's great.

maestroamado

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Fianna Fáil have long lost any credibility. They're done for. It's great.

Your agreeing with me.... something goin on....

BonnieSituation

maestroamado wrote: »

Your agreeing with me.... something goin on....

Is it that rare an occurrence?

Chips Lovell

maestroamado wrote: »

Fianna Fail will lose all credibility if they do not want a UI, that's what they say they have always said they about, they will likely be absolved by SF when move towards this goal...

They won't say they don't want it, there's nothing to be gained from alienating those who do. But they will be wishy washy about advocating one.

If a border poll was ever on the cards, expect Fianna Fail and most of the other parties to adopt the something along the lines of "We're in favour in principle, but more time is needed for divisions to heal" or "We absolutely want a united Ireland provided voters are aware of the costs to the Exchequer".

maestroamado

Chips Lovell wrote: »

They won't say they don't want it, there's nothing to be gained from alienating those who do. But they will be wishy washy about advocating one.

If a border poll was ever on the cards, expect Fianna Fail and most of the other parties to adopt the something along the lines of "We're in favour in principle, but more time is needed for divisions to heal" or "We absolutely want a united Ireland provided voters are aware of the costs to the Exchequer".

Well you will likely know the cost today as MM is meeting Boris today and i expect it be about NI.
I wonder did he need do this before result in NI this evening.
Is the new leader in north automatically First Minister as Boris will likely have to meet this person soon.
I wonder whats going on...

Leroy42

Johnson is meeting with Martin because the UK wants Ireland to beg on their behalf to the EU to ditch the agreement in essence, by striping out the very controls put in place because of the UK position.

Martin is meeting Johnson to try to get across how dangerous the situation is and how the UK are not living up to their agreements, an agreement that the previous Tai=oiseach went out of his way, and somewhat on a limb, to secure.

maestroamado

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnson is meeting with Martin because the UK wants Ireland to beg on their behalf to the EU to ditch the agreement in essence, by striping out the very controls put in place because of the UK position.

Martin is meeting Johnson to try to get across how dangerous the situation is and how the UK are not living up to their agreements, an agreement that the previous Tai=oiseach went out of his way, and somewhat on a limb, to secure.

A waste of time for both then...

Capt'n Midnight

Arleen steps down as FM at the end of June. The DUP are likely to be a bit miffed if a new First Minister comes from a different party. And may try to throw a spanner in the NI works.

Poots just elected as new DUP leader. And has said he won't be First Minister so shirking that responsibility.

maestroamado

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Arleen steps down as FM at the end of June. The DUP are likely to be a bit miffed if a new First Minister comes from a different party. And may try to throw a spanner in the NI works.

Poots just elected as new DUP leader. And has said he won't be First Minister so shirking that responsibility.

I was not aware he had said he would not be First Minister, can he really do that as i expect it is either job or someone from SF.
For me there is something going on, Boris traveled to Belfast i think i seen that on the news, he also met MM.
It may be possible that the EU has asked the two of them with new NI Minister to come up with a compromise since we are the on this Border/Customs issue...

Seth Brundle

maestroamado wrote: »

It may be possible that the EU has asked the two of them with new NI Minister to come up with a compromise since we are the on this Border/Customs issue...

Compromise to what? The Protocol is not up for renegotiation - at all!
The UK still are not carrying out their commitments yet so the EU is not going to start feeling soft for them until the UK gets the finger out! Any issues internally in the UK (i.e. NI) need to be resolved via Westminster.

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Compromise to what? The Protocol is not up for renegotiation - at all!
The UK still are not carrying out their commitments yet so the EU is not going to start feeling soft for them until the UK gets the finger out! Any issues internally in the UK (i.e. NI) need to be resolved via Westminster.

Yesterday, Poots pledged to bring down the NI Protocol.

maestroamado

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Compromise to what? The Protocol is not up for renegotiation - at all!
The UK still are not carrying out their commitments yet so the EU is not going to start feeling soft for them until the UK gets the finger out! Any issues internally in the UK (i.e. NI) need to be resolved via Westminster.

I do not think the EU really care as the volume of trade between UK and us insignificant in the overall scheme of EU trade.
It is for us and the UK to resolve as to where the customs border will be.

Seth Brundle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yesterday, Poots pledged to bring down the NI Protocol.

He can't no matter how many times he pledges. He can obstruct it however, although to date DEFRA NI under his watch has been adhering to it including to taking legal action to enforce it.

Seth Brundle

maestroamado wrote: »

I do not think the EU really care as the volume of trade between UK and us insignificant in the overall scheme of EU trade.
It is for us and the UK to resolve as to where the customs border will be.

You say it like we (RoI) are not the EU

pixelburp

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

maestroamado

Seth Brundle wrote: »

You say it like we (RoI) are not the EU

We are both.
Someone here said a few days ago that MM and Boris were going to be discussing trade as i do not know.
MM should not be discussing this unless it has being agreed with EU.
That is my view....

ancapailldorcha

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

maestroamado

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Personally as soon as the protests started i realized that the UK Government likely knew what they were doing and it may be the EU did as well.
It seems the NI politicians had no input to this deal.
It could end up as being a great new opportunity...

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Nope. There's no underlying strategy. This is just a classic DUP move of being backed into a corner.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

The DUP's problem is that they are now subject to the vagaries of resurgent English nationalism. 'British' is no longer the primary identity of a growing cohort of English people. In that context, 66% of mainland British people would be happy to see NI leave the UK or don't care if NI leaves. Only 24% don't want NI to leave.

So, the DUP's desire to remain in the UK isn't reciprocated by the large majority of people in Great Britain. This will be reflected in the attitude of a populist English-focused Tory party. Johnson has paid, and will pay, lip service to the DUP and will simply use them as pawns - especially in negotiations with the EU.

pixelburp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

Yeah, I mean in my head I know this, it's more that after 4 years of Trump, Brexit and populist politics in general I've become more cynically attuned to the idea of Cui Bono with these massive swerves against pragmatism. I want to presume there's an angle here with the DUP because at least that's understandable to a degree. It's not even like they can claim some power to cling onto.

As you say, their prevailing, engrained strategy was "Ulster says No" and given it worked, more or less, true enough there'd be little self awareness to understand the entire topography of the British Isles had changed. Their new leader is a descendant of that very foundational principle; leaving aside Poots' dangerous personal opinions I doubt the man has upskilled in the ways and manner politics exists these days.

Needless to say I'd hate to think this sunk-cost, retrograde form of unionism might pivot the province back into violence; but then I'm not sure a United Ireland is closer either. Maybe relatively insofar as it has swung from "not bloody likely" to "very unlikely", but unlike Scotland I don't see many peaceful paths either.

Mr.Nice Guy

It was reported recently that Donaldson was keen on bringing down the Assembly.

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1392608905851723778

This is the guy who was supposed to be the moderate candidate and who got almost half the votes.

Doesn't bode well for a peaceful summer.