Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

L1011

Bambi wrote: »

Well aware that Peadar Kearney wrote the Soldiers Song in English and the national anthem is just the chorus of the original song translated into Irish, but thanks for the pedantic correction.

How is it pedantic if someones post mentions "the original lyrics as Gaelige", which would suggest they believe it to have been written in Irish, when it wasn't?

Its pointing out what appears to be a giant error of fact, not something small and irrelevant.

Mr.Nice Guy

Looks like Arlene Foster's tenure as DUP leader may be coming to an end.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1387062909935755265

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1387068269698367490

Not a fan of hers at all and I'll shed no tears for her departing but if those are the reasons why she's getting canned, looks like the party is ready to lurch even further to the right.

Larbre34

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Not a fan of hers at all and I'll shed no tears for her departing but if those are the reasons why she's getting canned, looks like the party is ready to lurch even further to the right.

Yes, she has been entirely useless. Utterly mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government, flacid and reactionary in all other respects.

Will be interesting to see how the factions break down within the party, between far right and 'utterly bonkers bible basher fell off the right wing they went so far right'. Also between young and old and pragmatic concensus builders versus Paisleyite, not that there are many of the former.

You'd have to imagine that members of the Lords are beyond contention, perhaps an MP leader with an MLA deputy would be the best balance for them in terms of the importance of London to their fate. Many a Jeffrey Donaldson and an Emma Little Pengelly type ticket could prevail?

However if a far right leader is elected, its not a bad thing for Ireland and Irish nationalism as the DUP would only make themselves less and less relevant to younger and progressive voters in NI in that event.

Fionn1952

All with time for a new leader to be installed with enough lead time to play the super hardline card long enough to draw back the people who've said they'll never vote for them again. Bad news for TUV.....I won't shed too many tears.

L1011

Little Pengelley is not elected to anything so unlikely to be in any position

Mr.Nice Guy

Sammy Wilson has wanted the leadership in the past but I can't imagine they'd be daft enough to give it to him. He'd be a gift to his opponents.

If she goes, I reckon Donaldson and Dodds will be the most likely replacements. Paul Givan could be an outside bet if they want to try and target younger unionist voters.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Sammy Wilson has wanted the leadership in the past but I can't imagine they'd be daft enough to give it to him. He'd be a gift to his opponents.

If she goes, I reckon Donaldson and Dodds will be the most likely replacements. Paul Givan could be an outside bet if they want to try and target younger unionist voters.

Nigel or Diane Doods?

Larbre34

L1011 wrote: »

Little Pengelley is not elected to anything so unlikely to be in any position

Quite right. It was Lockhart I was thinking of.

BonnieSituation

That's rather wonderful. Unionism is eating itself even quicker than we'd hoped.

FrancieBrady

Letter says they want rid of Arlene and lord Dodds.

Mr.Nice Guy

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

weemcd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

I think you're spot on here on the DUP narrative. If that somehow stops the rot, remains to be seen. They had to do something, Arlene's cabal were extremely high risk going into this next election. It will be a hot summer in Northern Ireland, with lockdowns seemingly coming to an end right into a highly charged marching season, I see the prospect of plenty of trouble ahead...

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1387142118150397954?s=20

Peregrinus

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes, she has been entirely useless. Utterly mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government, flacid and reactionary in all other respects.

Well, she failed, yes. She was the leader who just might have been able to dragoon the party into a not-actually-suicidal position on Brexit. She failed. But I think it's unfair to ascribe this to her been "mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government"; the cozying up to the Tory looney right was driven by elements of her own party; they forced it on her.

Larbre34 wrote: »

Will be interesting to see how the factions break down within the party, between far right and 'utterly bonkers bible basher fell off the right wing they went so far right'. Also between young and old and pragmatic concensus builders versus Paisleyite, not that there are many of the former.

You'd have to imagine that members of the Lords are beyond contention, perhaps an MP leader with an MLA deputy would be the best balance for them in terms of the importance of London to their fate. Many a Jeffrey Donaldson and an Emma Little Pengelly type ticket could prevail?

By and large, its the DUP Westminster MPs who who have driven the disastrous alignment with the looney wing of the Tory party. I think choosing a leader whose a Westminster MP and responsive to other DUP MP would be a disaster; it would risk doubling down on an already catastrophic position. Fortunately the electorate for the partly leadership is dominated by MLAs, not MPs, and we might hope there are some who can see the problems with a "let's bend over for the Tory right" policy.

Larbre34 wrote: »

However if a far right leader is elected, its not a bad thing for Ireland and Irish nationalism as the DUP would only make themselves less and less relevant to younger and progressive voters in NI in that event.

But they can do a lot of damage in the meantime.

Dyr

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

You'd assume the want a clean break from the past so they can go after the protocol as a sell out, a betrayal, never never never and so forth while ignoring that they're the reason its in place

There was never a shortage of brass neck in Unionism

Leroy42

TBF, they are not the reason it is in place, although they certainly played a part.

TM's GB wide deal was instantly attacked by the ERG, Johnson resigned over it as did Davis. The DUP were just the excuse they used to justify their demand for a hard brexit, since before the vote nobody had been calling for it.

There is no doubt they were played, and I am not saying they should have any sympathy but its isn't totally because of them.

Peregrinus

It isn't totally because of them, but they were wholly supportive of, and co-operative in, the ERG strategy which led to it. They absolutely cannot complain about it and, if they think it is a bad thing, they need to examine their own responsiblity for it and draw some painful (for them) conclusions.

While ditching the current leadership could be part of that process, as it's shaping up right now it doesn't look to me as if it is. This doesn't seem to be a change of heart, so much as an exercise to deflect the need for a change of heart.

If they are wise they will choose a new leadership which recognised the disastrous course they have been on, and steers the party back towards sanity. If they are unwise, they will choose leaders to the right of Foster who will cling harder than ever to the Tory Right and to Hard Brexitry. I fear they will not be wise.

seamus

This seems to be impression everyone is getting at the moment. That the DUP is slowly losing its "moderate" supporters, which is having the effect of pushing the party further and further to the right.

Long-term it's probably a good thing as it will fracture unionism into something that might be more centrist and agreeable if multiple parties are in the driving seat.

Short-term though, a "harder" DUP will make it very difficult to make any progress and might fan the flames of violence.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

It isn't totally because of them, but they were wholly supportive of, and co-operative in, the ERG strategy which led to it. They absolutely cannot complain about it and, if they think it is a bad thing, they need to examine their own responsiblity for it and draw some painful (for them) conclusions.

While ditching the current leadership could be part of that process, as it's shaping up right now it doesn't look to me as if it is. This doesn't seem to be a change of heart, so much as an exercise to deflect the need for a change of heart.

If they are wise they will choose a new leadership which recognised the disastrous course they have been on, and steers the party back towards sanity. If they are unwise, they will choose leaders to the right of Foster who will cling harder than ever to the Tory Right and to Hard Brexitry. I fear they will not be wise.

Wisdom is not in the arsenal of Unionist politics.

Chips Lovell

I get the impression that anyone wanting to win the leadership will have to promise that they'll get rid of or at least dilute the Northern Ireland protocol. Which is something they won't be able to deliver. They've managed to paint themselves into a corner on this.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

This seems to be impression everyone is getting at the moment. That the DUP is slowly losing its "moderate" supporters, which is having the effect of pushing the party further and further to the right.

Long-term it's probably a good thing as it will fracture unionism into something that might be more centrist and agreeable if multiple parties are in the driving seat.

Short-term though, a "harder" DUP will make it very difficult to make any progress and might fan the flames of violence.

I don't know. I'd say there'll be a fair niche for splinter parties offering a purer form of Unionism without the baggage of the NIP.

Unionism is ultimately an ideology in decline and it's unlikely to moderate itself as a result. I'm not really sure what moderates can achieve given the political turmoil wrought by the DUP.

Sam Russell

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

Bring in a more pure person who votes for gay therapy treatment to remain and will flail against the northern Ireland protocol more believing ERB and London gives a damn.... No better way to ensure a more moderate middle ground party can gain ground.

J Mysterio

Sam Russell wrote: »

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

"The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Arlene Foster is to stand down as party leader on May 28th, and as First Minister of Northern Ireland at the end of June."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/arlene-foster-to-stand-down-as-north-s-first-minister-and-dup-leader-1.4550156?mode=amp

Mr.Nice Guy

There's a certain irony in that she stubbornly resisted for so long the pressure to step back over the RHI scandal, yet had she done so at the time, she probably would have avoided all the flak that came over Brexit. Dodds probably would have taken over from her and he'd be carrying the can over the protocol. Had this chain of events occurred, unionists might today be calling for her return, as opposed to now calling for her to go.

I don't see impressive performers in her potential replacements. I wonder could this go the way of Scotland, where unionist fortunes have taken a tumble since Ruth Davidson left frontline politics. What's even worse from a NI unionist perspective is that there is seemingly little to no appetite for any kind of progressive politics, so the ability to reach out to younger voters looks increasingly remote.

View

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There's a certain irony in that she stubbornly resisted for so long the pressure to step back over the RHI scandal, yet had she done so at the time, she probably would have avoided all the flak that came over Brexit. Dodds probably would have taken over from her and he'd be carrying the can over the protocol. Had this chain of events occurred, unionists might today be calling for her return, as opposed to now calling for her to go.

I don't see impressive performers in her potential replacements. I wonder could this go the way of Scotland, where unionist fortunes have taken a tumble since Ruth Davidson left frontline politics. What's even worse from a NI unionist perspective is that there is seemingly little to no appetite for any kind of progressive politics, so the ability to reach out to younger voters looks increasingly remote.

The increase in support for the Alliance party would point to an appetite for more progressive politics in NI. That increase has largely been in constituencies which traditionally return unionist MPs rather than nationalist ones, so it is by no means a cross-community movement.

20silkcut

How many high profile political careers have been destroyed or severely distorted by brexit at this stage?

David Cameron
Theresa may
Dominic grieve
John bercow
Arlene foster

to name but a few

Detritus70

20silkcut wrote: »

How many high profile political careers have been destroyed or severely distorted by brexit at this stage?

David Cameron
Theresa may
Dominic grieve
John bercow
Arlene foster

to name but a few

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

weemcd

Detritus70 wrote: »

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

Absolute weapons grade zealotry. That if you somehow "believe enough" in something, dismissing all fact and reason, that paradise awaits.

You see it with Trumpism, Brexit, Johnson's strange malaise he's walked the UK into (which might be wearing thin now, but Johnson remained quite popular through every one of his disasters.) You see it with Covid denial, anti masking, anti vax. An immunity to facts. Fascinating.

ancapailldorcha

Detritus70 wrote: »

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

It's because once a demographic sees an individual as being "one of us", there's very little said individual can do to incur their ire. There's a reason that Arlene Foster was able to hang on after the RHI scandal and it's the same thing that's protected Boris Johnson, Donald Trump, etc.

It's nonsense of course but it needs to be understood by those who wish for change.