Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Reversal

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

We need a trough or some sort of convective mechanism to enhance these showers.

But all those showers are convective...

pad199207

https://twitter.com/themskphysio/status/1352704323118096384?s=21

Hooter23

Cant even get decent showers these days I remember years ago when we used to get cold from the northwest and west we used to get the biggest hail showers one after another covering the whole place white everytime...showers are useless these days if your looking for hail/snow

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Just had five minute shower of graupel, beat that!

You always have to win Senor Pangea!

Nqp15hhu

Hooter23 wrote: »

Cant even get decent showers these days I remember years ago when we used to get cold from the northwest and west we used to get the biggest hail showers one after another covering the whole place white everytime...showers are useless these days if your looking for hail/snow

Yes we have always had very intense showers in Nw. I think we had an event like this before.

Nqp15hhu

Another shower bites the dust over Donegal! At least it’s subzero.

Donegal Storm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Cant even get decent showers these days I remember years ago when we used to get cold from the northwest and west we used to get the biggest hail showers one after another covering the whole place white everytime...showers are useless these days if your looking for hail/snow

I've definitely noticed the same, those thunderous hail downpours really are a thing of the past. They used to be a frequent feature every winter from November onwards but even light hail showers have been rare this past decade

redsteveireland

davidsr20 wrote: »

Lots of Dublin talk I know guys but how do u think the west will do on Sunday please and thank u. East Galway Craughwell.

It's a question of how far in land the showers travel I think, it only about 60 miles from Clifden to Craughwell but I am so used to watching the showers fizzle out when they reach Athenry. The conditions currently look right but will it deliver precipitation is the ever burning question?

Best advice is go to bed expecting nothing and then you won't be disappointed when you wake up, I'm presuming you want snow of course.

Meteorite58

Well that is what the models are predicting into Sunday atm. One area common to some of the models to get a good coating seems to be the area circled below, hard to know. The UKMO I think is projecting that the occluded front will pivot back on to itself so might fall the heaviest here ??

ECM has been the most consistent I would reckon followed by ICON.

M.T. Cranium

Support for 3-6 cm snowfalls late Sat into early Sun ranges from strong to none even this close to the event on various models. The best outcome will be if a distinct low forms west of Connacht and if temperature fields co-operate. The GFS has the best look for that combination. The ECM now promises colder temperatures by Sunday than the GFS. The GEM is generally co-operative although less robust, and the Arpege has no strong development and keeps any snow marginal. UKMO on the other hand looks fairly close to GFS. ICON was looking like a weaker variety of GFS (1-3 cm potential).

I have the feeling this could come down to last minute calls from actual obs rather than model guidance. Sort of like forecasting in the 1920s rather than the 2020s. Still, I have that experience (almost).

Nqp15hhu

My car is encased in a layer of ice!

https://streamable.com/9cr79l

Meteorite58

ECM showing some very cold 850 hPa temperature.

Widespread frost early both nights especially Sunday night

TheMilkyPirate

Think I'm positioned well here in South wexford for saturday night. I'll be up for the McGregor fight anyway so hopefully will see some snow as well.

pad199207

ECM and GFS are all well and good aswell as harmonie but it doesn’t help that the rest of the models are fairly ****e for tomorrow night.

Unless there’s a drastic change come morning it’s probably already a nowcast

Meteorite58

Much more pronounced by the UKMO

Dazler97

Just watched the met office forecast as I rely on that more so than ours but it shows showers coming in from the northwest around 10 or 11 and spreading down as far as the Midlands

Pangea

All white here now ,to the layman though it is snow, you have to look really close to see the beads of graupel, nice to look at. A decent covering.

Nqp15hhu

The local roads here are a nightmare. All of the rain has frozen solid, the roads are sparkling. The exact same conditions I had my crash in, I am not going out again.

corsav6

Pangea wrote: »

Just had five minute shower of graupel, beat that!

A good 15 mins in Newport Mayo. Some of it even stuck. Not saying I'll be flinging snowballs or anything but it's a start at least.

typhoony

in the past I've noticed showers that track through north Sligo generally travel inland a fair distance. as far as Roscommon I would think

nacho libre

Dazler97 wrote: »

Just watched the met office forecast as I rely on that more so than ours but it shows showers coming in from the northwest around 10 or 11 and spreading down as far as the Midlands

Do you mean for tonight?

Nqp15hhu

Spitting snow

Dazler97

nacho libre wrote: »

Do you mean for tonight?

Sorry yes it is for tonight, more of a chance tomorrow night.

Mimon

Dazler97 wrote: »

Sorry yes it is for tonight, more of a chance tomorrow night.

Thanks for that. Hopefully pans out. Would be nice to get even a covering.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#?map=CloudAndRain&fcTime=1611309600&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=54.26

yorlum11

corsav6 wrote: »

A good 15 mins in Newport Mayo. Some of it even stuck. Not saying I'll be flinging snowballs or anything but it's a start at least.

Same here in Westport. Cars white. I will take it as a start.

Gonzo

Mimon wrote: »

Thanks for that. Hopefully pans out. Would be nice to get even a covering.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#?map=CloudAndRain&fcTime=1611309600&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=54.26

this also shows tomorrow nights band of showery precipitation breaking up before reaching Meath/Dublin, but stays intact further north and further south.

Donegal Ken

Heavy snowfall in Ballyshannon, South Donegal tonight. https://mobile.twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1352726666360008706

This is about 1.5km away from the Finner weather station which has also seen snow in the last hour.

pad199207

GFS going more like ICON in the pub run for tomorrow night with an increasingly broken up band of snow by the time it reaches Leinster.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

GFS going more like ICON in the pub run for tomorrow night with an increasingly broken up band of snow by the time it reaches Leinster.

this is very likely, most other models are showing next to nothing for Meath/Dublin/Kildare tomorrow night. We still have 24 hours to go and it's the final 24 hours were the biggest downgrades regularly happen when it comes to Atlantic cold.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

this is very likely, most other models are showing next to nothing for Meath/Dublin/Kildare tomorrow night. We still have 24 hours to go and it's the final 24 hours were the biggest downgrades regularly happen when it comes to Atlantic cold.