Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084979#Comment_118084979

It's simply a consequence of inventing a new red line and shooting down very generous proposals before they had even been proffered. Why would France not do this if it sees that the UK wants a fight regardless. It's not like it could possibly damage progress anywhere else.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083642#Comment_118083642

Nice post

What is not at all worrying, is that the Johnson government will likely keep their Trident nuclear program going, but are skimping on the ability to guide those missiles, or even accurately measure where their submarines are in relation to contested borders with foreign adversaries

What cuts are they making to the safety of these other systems that aren't being announced? During the decline of the soviet union, there are lots of horror stories about lethal chemical and biological weapons being discarded in shallow and wholely unsuitable holes in the ground, and nuclear missiles being left unguarded and having security systems switched off for lack of maintenance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soviet-unions-fall-led-alarming-003000640.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD2CXr86IMGt7LDltbXWK1tvvSTmB6WCYwBSSly_tBlt9BWcmEftm30VDMv_yNvJVU6dR_2NggtYBKefraWNhiFVcyAY8GA2Tf793yjXgZQUKXbh0u33di_7-l_hM7kfBbJ8xDmR5qg4iC60JXvXW7lkXT0claJ2Hc_eZfx-kqV_

When once great military powers go into decline, they first spend huge resources pretending that they're still powerful, even bluffing that they're getting more and more powerful, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/15/cap-on-trident-nuclear-warhead-stockpile-to-rise-by-more-than-40 and then they quickly collapse when they can no longer maintain such an expensive facade anymore.

Johnson announcing an increase in Trident warheads this March, this, along with an admission that they cannot afford the means to defend and guide them to their intended destination is a worrying sign, existing nuclear infrastructure needs to be maintained, and upgraded over time. These become very expensive problems indeed. Johnson allowing raw sewage to be pumped into the UK waterways might seem like nothing compared to the danger of breached nuclear waste containment facilities if necessary investments are delayed in favour of grand populist expensive wasteful posturing

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084979#Comment_118084979

I’ve warned about Macron’s upcoming electoral posturing before, and that was considered duly in the light of his consistent “bad Brexit cop act” throughout the WA & TCA negotiations.

I can’t see France backtracking on that 02 November threat, by reason of same.

So the burning question is whether the UK will backtrack itself (never mind by the deadline), given Frost’s intent of the past few months, his direct messaging about these threats, and British papers and media are drumming the seized British trawler story. I can’t see it either.

Fish (well, the FR/UK jostling over fishing rights) isn’t a big issue in France, nowhere near the scope of popular awareness as it does in the UK. But Macron will absolutely not want to give LePen, Zemmour, Barnier et al a stick to beat him with, by not making good on the threat.

peter kern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084920#Comment_118084920

at the end of the day this is all bread and games stuff employed by the 2 sites

very childish or populistic however you want to see it

on one hand its maybe good to use the same tactics the brits use, on the other hand playing games everybody is losing and the only people that win are the countries that like the fact that europe destabilises itself.

as an aside and not a reply to quoted post , do we really need to talk about the british election system and the british culture every 3 or so pages... it does become rather tiresome.

Sam Russell

The British voting system is the prism through which British politics should be viewed. There is no voting for the House of Lords, who are hereditary or are political appointed holders. The other house is voted by a system that is unrepresentative of the popular vote.

The consequence of this is that the regimes formed are all majoritarian in nature - winner takes all.

That is Brexit - no consultation between May or Johnson with any opposition party. That is typical of all British Governments for the last 50 years so no surprise. This is why the British electoral system is relevant for Brexit.

What contribution has Keir Starmer or Corbyn made to British policy on any matter?

An Ciarraioch

The UK has finally integrated into the EU Covid Cert system, long after countries such as Israel and Morocco did so:

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1453692326732255236

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, where the last NI poll had a narrow majority against the Protocol, now a net majority of 11% favour it:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619161180033024

Also want Stormont to retain the measure in 2024, and disapprove of Article 16 being triggered:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619181090492417

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619184399753217

Finally, opinions on the various actors in the process:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619175554011140

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085217#Comment_118085217

It strikes me that their rigid FPTP system coupled with an advisory referendum was a disastrous mix. Every other country in Europe is used to the idea of compromise and consensus and the need to have everyone on board. A tight referendum result alongside their FPTP system ('we won, you lost, get over it pal') was only ever going to lead to bitter division.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085352#Comment_118085352

Well, that burning question got answered surprisingly quick!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-59077644

“Downing Street said the UK fully supported the way Jersey and Guernsey were handling the issue, which was "entirely in line" with the provisions of Britain's trade deal with the EU”

ancapailldorcha

So, Britain backs down again and Macron gets the win he was fishing for. Typical.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086060#Comment_118086060

Well, technically, Jersey & Guernsey backed down, not Britain (i.e. Johnson / Frost)…which is how Downing Street can conveniently save face and message out, that it was always thus. Naked opportunism of course, and one has to wonder how many Downing Street phone calls to Jersey it took.

I still think we’ll see more of this, though. The pattern is setting, I think Macron will have at that missing £54m in border enforcement budget again before long.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085846#Comment_118085846

Were those polled also questioned on their political allegiances? Cos that's the element I'd be most curious about and could paint the figures in a more contextual light; with my worry that Unionists/Loyalists still form a critical mass in those rowing behind the DUP/UUP in that 32% who Strongly Disagree the Protocol is a good thing. Trust across all NI parties reads pretty low, but then I'd doubt someone polled in West Belfast would have kept much stock in the DUP's stance to behind with...

murphaph

Fair play to the French. We should stand by them. They were patient enough with the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083642#Comment_118083642

The UK's response to that was going to be "we'll build our own!"

The French Exocet missiles reportedly had a kill switch so they wouldn't attack French naval vessels. Them fitting one to a UK satellite is not beyond the bounds of possibility. Same goes for every other foreign launch option.

This big lipstick looks like something out of Austin Powers or Thunderbirds, but 50 years ago it was the UK's first satellite launcher and cancelled. Today South Korea is debugging their own satellite launch vehicle and planning to send landers to the moon. By not investing the UK isn't standing still, it's missing out on opportunities . Yes the UK is still in ESA but Belgium and Switzerland together contribute more. Brexit isn't the first time the UK has trashed it's own space capabilities.

In short there isn't much of a civilian market for a UK navigation system when half the world's population already have access to six of them. There probably isn't a military market for the same reasons so the UK would have to fund it by itself and if that involves developing launch capability again don't hold your breath, even if there is political will to do it.

Technical stuff below.

=====================================================================

For general navigation you can use GPS (USA).

You can use differential GPS to improve accuracy to a few cm over several hundred km by comparing the signals received from another receiver at known fixed location. Despite this others have spent billions setting up their own global systems GLONASS (Russia), BIEDOU (China) and GALILEO (EU) for reasons.

On top of that India (IRNSS) and Japan (QZSS) have their own regional systems covering their areas of interest (and China, everybody's area of interest). Thailand, Indonesian and Oz all have memorandums with the Japanese government. So don't expect much cost-sharing for the UK from them or indeed any Africa/Pacific countries worried about China.

Yes you can pickup the signal in Helsinki but it's not as accurate.

Lots of talk about using LEO satellites but you'd need to track them more often which means you need a lot of ground stations. Technically the UK could reproduce the French DORIS system to get LEO satellites to self navigate as they have world wide bases but it takes too long to determine the exact trajectories. Inertial guidance systems work and they are getting better but everyone else is still launching satellites. And Brexit means a lot of talent will go back home. cf. Bezos loosing a lot of good engineers.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086033#Comment_118086033

Ha suddenly it's Jersey and not the UK.

A bit like that time "Canada's" Greg Rudzetski got caught with drugs

An Ciarraioch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086096#Comment_118086096

More that Jersey has a long-standing policy of regular discussions with the regional government in Normandy, the aim being to sort out issues at local level, without London or Paris intervening.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Westminster has established an Article 16 committee, to discuss when and whether to trigger the provision:

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-uk-readying-for-major-clash-with-eu-as-it-convenes-committee-to-look-at-fallout-from-triggering-article-16-and-suspending-northern-ireland-cooperation-12453512

kowloon

Why would they want to trigger A16 before Christmas> Don't they risk making things worse at the time of the year that would have the greatest fallout?

Akrasia

If they were good at long term planning they wouldn't have voted for brexit

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088187#Comment_118088187

They'd have something new to blame for what might be bad anyway.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118087441#Comment_118087441

Posturing and trying some pretty weak brinkmanship.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088187#Comment_118088187

I can't see them actually doing it. Actually increasing the chances of turkey being replaced by nothing is probably the stupidest thing they could do after the fiasco of last year.

Leroy42

Triggering A16 doesn’t stop anything, it merely places a hold on some particular aspects of the deal until a resolution can be found.

it is being sold in the UK media, willingly abetted by the government, as a way to cancel the entire deal.

but as the EU resolved many of the on the ground issues recently, Art 16 won’t have too much of an impact on day to day.

and it does nothing to deal with the issues that GB is facing

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088723#Comment_118088723

Even though that's all true, triggering It would be a declaration of war against the EU

A massive middle finger to the good Friday agreement and whatever shred of goodwill left would be shattered in one fell swoop

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088744#Comment_118088744

It seems to be perceived here in the press as the "Press here to own the EU" button. The problem with that message is that it begs the question of why Johnson doesn't press it. Of course, we know better and that hitting it starts a series of escalations the result of which will be worse for the UK. As we've seen, Emmanuel Macron has an upcoming an election so he could do with a bit of owning the Brits so now is a poor time for Johnson's games. The treaty has been signed and ratified. It will not be renegotiated just because the DUP are upset and the Tories have exhausted their culture war trope.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088826#Comment_118088826

They are indeed rapidly running out of road to divert people on.

Macron will want to play hardball as you say , Covid as an excuse is dwindling and try as they might people can see through the "Global Supply chain" storyline - Yes everyone is impacted , but there are only queues on the streets in one Country.

Hard to know who they'll try to make the fall-guy when the hits are going to keep on coming with greater frequency and severity over the coming weeks and months.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088238#Comment_118088238

The fisheries dispute is barely even being reported by the French media. It shows you just how desperate the Brexiteers are : relying on stage managed stunts and threats of trade wars in order to try and keep their sham of a government popular.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089607#Comment_118089607

The fall guys are already in place. We've already seen Cummings and Hancock take a walk when things got too hot for Johnson. The issue is this desperate need to distract the public from the consequences of the government's catastrophic mismanagement of a self-imposed recession.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting long read from a UK civil servant on why she resigned over issues in trying to promote Brexit in the US:

https://tnsr.org/2021/10/should-i-stay-or-should-i-go-the-dilemma-of-a-conflicted-civil-servant/?fbclid=IwAR07LQ9IdQxffuS3BL7lp5FE7RPQ_EvE_KZ-0z42sEghje0vRf77_A3eYNw

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089607#Comment_118089607

@Quin_Dub "Hard to know who they'll try to make the fall-guy when the hits are going to keep on coming with greater frequency and severity over the coming weeks and months."

Oh I'm not so sure. I think they have a long menu to choose from, including Traitorous Remainers in a they-should-have-got-behind-Brexit sauce, followed by a main course of "EU punishment" which despite being overcooked still goes down well on the sceptred isle, and for dessert a Blame-the-Immigrants Eton Mess because well, you've got to, haven't you.