Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928063#Comment_117928063

It's almost flown under the radar slightly this week, but the (presumed) loss of a US trade deal is an absolute hammer blow for Brexit. They were staking nearly everything on it and it would be the big propaganda coup to keep Leave voters happy. Very noticeable is the complete absence of leading Brexiteers on social media at the moment, they've gone extremely quiet.

The thing about EU laws and regulations was always concocted nonsense. The other 27 countries are happy to be be members and barely give EU regulations a moment's thought. It was largely invented by the English tabloids as an excuse to hate on Europe and the EU.

murphaph

Yep. A very comprehensive US-UK FTA was a prerequisite to Brexit having any chance of not being a complete catastrophe really. They needed a quick and very large replacement for the EU and the US was the only show in town big enough and halfway close enough (and it's not very close). Deals with the likes of Japan, no matter how comprehensive, never stood a chance of replacing so much trade with neighbours a stone's throw away. Nothing else "close" is economically large enough to make the slightest bit of difference.

Brexit is surely a dead man walking at this stage already. I cannot see any path forward for the UK in the next 5 years that does not involve swallowing some pride and moving closer to the EU again, ultimately I think they'll be back in the CU and SM within the decade now. Sense will start to prevail and the Conservatives will be replaced by a Labour led coalition.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928170#Comment_117928170

The EU has been used by the Tories for 50 years as their "the dog ate my homework" blanket excuse. , aided and abetted by the media.

When people complained about one thing or another , the go to cover story was - "well we'd love to do something about X issue , but we are constrained by EU rules here , if it was our choice of course we'd fix that thing".

They are still doing it now , only now it's the EU being vindictive and deliberately awful because "we stood up to them" or something...

Seth Brundle

This Brexit business is turning out into a proper fiasco

It isn't turning out to be a fiasco - it was always destined to be a fiasco and has been ever since they triggered Art 50. It could never have been successful, especially when the UK Government couldn't actually articulate what kind of Brexit the Uk would have.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928212#Comment_117928212

On your latter point, I can definitely see a climbdown and people having to admit there were many benefits to EU membership. Whether the UK could get back into the SMCU within ten years is debatable though (that's if the UK even still exists). It would surely mean Farage, the ERG, Hannan, the Daily Telegraph and Daily Express etc having to get off the stage first. No country could be admitted into the SM with public figures and a media on board who have such a pathological hatred for Europe and European people.....they would have to be gone from the public discourse. They are not 'Eurosceptics', they are people who would start a war with the EU if they could.

fiveleavesleft

Starmer in his huge essay says he will fix holes in the "shoddy" Brexit deal (which he rushed to support) & make Brexit work for the Britain. His toughest stance on Brexit in years.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928267#Comment_117928267

That's a bit unfair. Teresa May was very clear that Brexit meant Brexit, and that it would be red, white and blue! So no more of this thinking they didn't have a plan.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928170#Comment_117928170

I disagree. The trade "argument" was obvious nonsense even back in 2016. It belongs in the same cultural bin as fishing. People made a lot of noise about these but nobody will get in a strop over them. I'm convinced that for some people, waffling on about global trade was just a way to voice outrage about the EU while have no knowledge of what the EU actually is or how it works. Nobody was staking anything on some apocryphal trade utopia except perhaps the libertarians and financiers hoping to erode various protections and regulations alluded to via "Singapore-on-Thames".

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928719#Comment_117928719

It's hard to see the EU being happy to re-import the Awkward Squad. Even with them gone, Brexit is still in everyone's face. I'd say Britain is looking at a long time in the self-imposed sin bin unless some national trauma, which Brexit might well provide, drives a stake through the heart of English exceptionalism. In order to get back in, the UK would also be likely to have to eat the full EU menu: the Euro, Schengen etc with no opt-outs.

wexfordman2

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1495544/BP-fuel-crisis-latest-ration-petrol-UK-government-warning-news

petrol rationing now on the cards in the uk.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929038#Comment_117929038

The ability to make and sign their own trade deals, free from the oppressing bureacracy of the EU, was a major selling point. And the US deal was always the golden egg in that. Up until basically this week the US trade deal was the big prize, the one that would sort everything out and show the EU how wrong it was.

It is amazing how little pushback Johnson is getting since they have now openly admitted that there is no US trade deal in the next few years. What was the point of Brexit is they can't even get a deal with their special friend?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929295#Comment_117929295

He isn't getting pushback because very few people really care about trade deals. It's the fish thing all over again. Nobody cares until it affects them directly. It sounded great back in 2016 and provided some people with an extra arrow to shoot at the libs but that's all it ever really was.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929332#Comment_117929332

Indeed - How **** a Christmas is had in the UK will be a major tipping point for Brexit either way.

If they manage to throw enough cash at things they might get away with it , but if there are widespread shortages and/or massive price increases it will get ugly fast.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929472#Comment_117929472

Well, last one wasn't exactly fun. I was stuck here for it!

It's not really about cash so much though. The HGV driver shortage, while Europe-wide isn't going to go away by throwing money at it. Even if it does, it'll have long term costs if salaries are artificially inflated. Things like the scarcity of natural gas driving up energy prices aren't going to be resolved by Johnson splashing the cash. Obviously, spending big can solve many problems but time is often needed as well and this government have consistently chosen to ignore extensions when offered by the EU.

Gerry T

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117928990#Comment_117928990

But isn't that the problem. "brexit meant brexit".."taking back control".."they need us more than we need them".."easiest trade deal in human history".."350m a week"

Either meaningless slogans or down right lies. First brexit meant various different things to various different people. Leaving the EU has many faces, what they got most likely represents what a very small percentage of the UK people wanted. Taking back control turned out to be a border in their country and zero import checks coming from the EU, and very limited access for services. They then figured out the UK needed the EU more than the other way round. Then they figured out a trade deal with the EU wasn't easy but it was easy when compared to say the USA, maybe that's what they meant. And 350m a week was actually about 150m a week. Now they find out being outside the EU is costing the UK about 600m a week.

Still no customs officials, border infrastructure, additional vets, truck drivers, CO2, high gas prices, empty shelves...the list goes on. If not Fiasco, what word would you use ?

Patser

The thing is that the majority of the UK population was simply exhausted of Brexit. The vote took place back in 2016, and there's been 5 years are political backstabbing and drama but no real impact on the day to day life if the population til now.

I mean to a lot of their minds the UK left if not 5 years ago, at least 2 years ago or maybe last New Year - and the immediate impacts were camouflaged by Civid - passport checks, sure who was on holidays, supply disruption, sure everyone is quarantining.

But the UK is now completely reopened from Covid, everyone wants everything back to normal now, and the smokescreen is starting to wear thin. Instead they are facing tax increases, benefit cuts, massive rises in fuel costs, food costs. People's day to day lives are starting to be affected and it's only September. Wait til January when post Christmas blues and bills come in, but the disruption grows and the bills come more and more due.

Johnson has squandered billions on the Covid crisis, while still having a huge death rate. That money has to be paid back, but economic growth is being strangled by trade barriers, lack of big deals, and weaker economic power. So things will get a lot tighter on the UK purse. Especially if their current 'throw money quietly at it' approach to businesses like Nissan or CO2 production continues.

It'll be death by a thousand cuts. Every little problem that occurs will hit another small group in the community. Suddenly it won't be just unhappy fishermen, but farmers, lone parents in cities, arts groups, people wondering why their bins aren't collected, London workers wondering why commuting fares have to go up, shoppers wondering why their selection of goods is weaker while costing more etc.

ambro25

“Taking back control turned out to be a border in their country and zero import checks coming from the EU, and very limited access for services.”

…but then, witness how they screamed blue murder the other month, when Macron had the temerity to ask for a paltry €54m more to help secure “their” border indeed!

heh 😏

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929504#Comment_117929504

I think the last one was understandable as nobody had a normal Christmas anywhere in the world. But I agree with Quinn_Dub and you make the point as well, the reality could hit this Christmas and at a time where people want to forget about things may just be the time where it all becomes too much. If they were able to stave off some of the hardships they could plod along a little longer, but I think you can see the magic money tree is dying and there isn't a lot they can, or even want to do for the ordinary voter.

Once said ordinary voter starts losing faith I suspect you will see the Tabloids turn on the Tories as well. They care about selling newspapers/surviving just as much as the ordinary workers and will not want to be seen as tied to that sinking ship.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929516#Comment_117929516

I don't see the UK rejoining for a decade or more, but I do see them rejoining the SM and CU to ease the burden initially and then just forgetting about Brexit as things stabilize. Give it a few more years and eventually the talk will then be about having a say once again in the processes they have to follow. By then they would have hopefully gotten rid of FPTP and have a more representative system in place that will avoid the disaster of the past decade. By then you could just be talking about England and Wales though as part of the UK.

If Labour is looking ahead they would propose a alliance with the SNP, LD and Greens to get rid of FPTP but tie it to Scotland not leaving for the foreseeable future. That would be one way to save the Union and get rid of the Tories forever. If there was a proportional representation voting system you would see the hard right of the Tories leak votes to the likes of Farage. But this scenario, I am aware, is very much my best case scenario for the UK. I guess more likely is the hard left destroys Labour before they get a change and they keep the Tories in power to burn it all to the ground.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929545#Comment_117929545

Johnson has squandered billions on the Covid crisis, while still having a huge death rate. That money has to be paid back,

I thought that too till I saw the graph. Most of the national debt pre-dates Covid.

2008 was the crash so should have a short term increase but 2010 was when the Conservatives came to power and started abusing the magic money tree instead of reducing the debt.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117929904#Comment_117929904

But getting rid of FPTP would also hammer Labour too. Party would split right down the left. (Aontú is the Nth split in the 5th? incarnation of SF) So you'd have the left wing of Labour and the right wing of the Tories to either side of new-labour/liberals/one nation conservatives chasing the centrist votes. With I can't believe it's not UKIP and the Greens waiting to slice off more votes too.

I firmly believe that multi seat and transferable votes are the way to go. But that would mean that Labour and Tories couldn't parachute half of their MPs into safe seats.

The SNP have one policy. And it isn't propping up Labour until the next election because as we all know parliament cannot bind a future parliament so anything can be reversed. Have you seen how insane the Scottish voting system is to keep the SNP from getting a majority at home ? Yes I'd expect the SNP to split after independence but that's not a bad thing.

Joining the CU is doable as it would cut down the paperwork and regulation, probably have to do like Turkey and have some opt outs to show control. As the UK isn't a nett exporter of food or raw materials the opt-outs would be next to meaningless)

Joining the SM is impossible without taking on the four freedoms. Annual UK surplus on services to EU is worth about the same as the French-Australian deal and isn't covered by the CU so there's that too.

CptMonkey

How long before the damage from brexit isn’t easily fixed by joining the customs union?

it’s seems like they made every decision possible to make things worse while simultaneously thinking that they could trade with the rest of the world to offset that. To this day I still can’t see how the people bought it so readily

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117930223#Comment_117930223

I'm of the opinion that a significant portion of the leave vote were fine with the idea of Brexit being bad for the UK as long as they personally didn't experience any consequences.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117930314#Comment_117930314

A lot of truth in that. Certainly anyone taken in by an obvious rabble rouser like Farage and his UKIP mates was voting out of spite and with the aim of inflicting pain on others (but somehow they themselves would be immune to this pain).

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117930223#Comment_117930223

I can - the combination of a press corps that mostly lined up to cheerlead for Brexit, combined with one of the most useless Labour leaders ever (in itself quite an achievement) who preferred vacillation to opposition,

ath262

Frosty the ace negotiator talking rubbish again, "demanding" answers from the EU on his recent 'position paper', completely ignoring the fact that the protocol was negotiated, passed trough parliament and signed by the government he works for...

Claiming they 'didn't envisage' a particular level of checks is not an excuse, all this was pointed out before Brexit, ignored or dismissed by Brexiters, Boris and co., if I remember correctly Borris told businesses in Northen Ireland that if they recieved any customs paperwork for goods from Britain they should throw it in the bin - clearly "fake news" putting it politely

https://twitter.com/davidghfrost/status/1441118940113948672?s=21

"The Protocol is clearly having a continued negative effect on everyday life & business in Northern Ireland. The outstanding issues now need to be dealt with urgently. I and my team are in contact with the EU daily, but we need a full response to our July Command Paper soon."

wexfordman2

Fixed that for you Frosty!

" This Brexit Malaraky is clearly having a continued negative effect on everyday life & business in the UK".

CptMonkey

There is some serious cognitive dissonance with frost and to be fair the rest of the tories. Oven ready deal to unacceptable before you can say brexit means brexit.

That and it seems the only thing stopping NI from having similar stock issues is the protocol

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117930871#Comment_117930871

Mmm. Well, we may have a bit of an issue here.

Up to now, one factor which has restrained the UK in its campaign against its own NI Protocol is the awareness that, if they piss off the US excessively by jeopardising the peace settlement in NI, they are not getting a US trade deal.

But, now, they have accepted they are not getting a US trade deal in any event, for the foreseeable future — certainly not before the next UK general election, which is the timeframe that matters. Hence, making waves over the NI Protocol is no longer something that will jeopardise a US trade deal.

Mind you, right now they have indefinite "grace periods" which are attracting no penalty or counter-measure from the EU. If they invoke Art 16 they make the situation worse for themselves; Art 16 measures must be temporary, not indefinite, and even if the UK is entitled to take Art 16 measures the EU is entitled to respond with counter-measures. So invoking Art 16 would in effect be a decision to disadvantage themselves and disimprove their own situation, in order raise the temperature and provoke a crisis.

Still, they're quite capable of doing that. If ever there was a Prime Minister happy to sacrifice his country's interests for short-term domestic political advantage, it's Johnson. And he might see inflaming Northern Ireland and picking a row with the EU as a useful tactic for distracting media and public attention from the increasingly dismal Brexit outcomes that GB is experiencing.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117931532#Comment_117931532

Unless Johnson is an even bigger buffoon than many people think,I believe his moaning about the protocol is purely to appease the DUP.The protocol appears to be working well to NI's advantage for all to see.

In the event the government does trigger Art 16 though,I wouldn't rely on Biden and the likes of Boyle(and his brother with his IRA sympathies)too much as they are viewed with suspicion here at least, many remember'noraid'.Also,being of Irish descent isn't sufficient reason to fall out with one of your closest allies.

Before the avalanche of criticism,I believe the protocol is working for NI and wouldn't want to see it rejected . I'm expressing an opinion that a number of US politicians being of Irish ethnicity will only stretch so far if the UK government does reject the protocol.

Seth Brundle

I believe his moaning about the protocol is purely to appease the DUP.The protocol appears to be working well to NI's advantage for all to see.

He has no reason to appease the DUP though. I believe it is more that the NIP is blocking his wonderful Brexit and so he is unable to fully restore the UK to its 19th century glory as a global leader.