Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117885313#Comment_117885313

Cornwall sounds like the worst place in the UK for NIMBYism and that's saying something. I saw a comment on Reddit claiming that there were plans to build a University in Penzance but local businesses lobbied against it because they thought that the students wouldn't spend enough money.

Seth Brundle

Previous posts referred to the Telegraph turning on the government. Apparently the Daily Mail are at it too (this article snippet refers to the previous post regarding the fruit pickers being brought into Britain)...

https://twitter.com/jackiekemp/status/1437351860428591109

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117885773#Comment_117885773

It's definitely interesting - the right wing press starting to report that Brexit is an abject failure (it would be difficult to describe it as anything else in fairness). One wonders what direction the narrative will go in in the next couple of years.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886254#Comment_117886254

I think that this is a fairly solid indication. The press might be aligned with the Tories but they also have to sell papers. A shrinking economy means poorer people who might not be able to subscribe as they used to and that's before we get to any sort of printing mishaps which may arise though I imagine the actual printing takes place in the UK.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886549#Comment_117886549

I think the mistake people who follow politics here in the UK make is to see the press as the propaganda arm of the Conservative party. They've turned on them before, ie with Blair in 1997. Unlike the Conservative party, the press don't exist purely to abet Boris Johnson's ambition.

dogbert27

I think perhaps the turning on BoJo's Brexit could be down to his raising of taxes.

Get a new conservative pro-Brexit leader, "will finally deliver what was promised" "make Britain Great again" add as many slogans as possibly can while throwing out wild claims about the EU and the press will have another 12 to 24 months of Brexit is great until the reality hits that this new leader will also have to raise taxes, raid pensions, print more pounds and increase inflation.

Press hound out this new leader and we start the merry go round again.

Kermit.de.frog

https://mobile.twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1437477984152297486

I watched some of this debate this evening. It really is a bad situation from our point of view.

I think they fully intend to unilaterally ditch this arrangement and we are going to find out very soon whether the EU is going to act to protect a member state. Because, frankly, they have done nothing except project weakness so far which is encouraging this.

We need to see a much firmer response to this behaviour.

This has already been negotiated.

Capt'n Midnight

Customs duties up by £600m so far this year. Good news for HMG not so good news for the consumer. Could be regarded as stealth tax I guess.

The lead up to Christmas will be interesting.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887173#Comment_117887173

Maybe this time they really, really, really mean it. Not like all the other threats and promises to go with no deal.

No need to even react. Wait until they actually do something. Triggering Art 16, like everything in Brexit, is not the end, only the beginning. Then the UK would have to actually present evidence of issues rather than just claim them

Why you, or anyone, would pay the slightest bit of notice to Frost is beyond me. The nan has shown himself to be a complete failure and will go down as the man that negotiated such an awful deal.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887173#Comment_117887173

It appears your Schrödinger's cat is still your reality kermit, the EU are both all encompassing powerfully too strong and invasive into Irish lives but equally incredibly weak and slow to act at the same time.

And you will no doubt hold this position tomorrow , next week, next month and next year . Dam with the evidence.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887173#Comment_117887173

You honestly think that the EU would allow any third party with a treaty with the EU to get away with ignoring its obligations? To literally bin all EU (an entity which exists for agreeing treaties and views itself as a potential third superpower in relation to trade treaties) credibility as regards enforcing its rights in relation to all third party treaties?

They are literally more likely to commit actual mass suicide than the economic suicide you are suggesting.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887173#Comment_117887173

You need to think before you post, Kermit.

You complain about the EU not "acting to protect a member state". As far as Ireland is concerned, we'd much prefer that the EU didn't act, since escalation of the dispute is likely to lead to (a) hardening of the border and (b) greater constraints on IRL-GB trade, both of which would be very painful for us. It would suit us down to the ground if if the EU ignored the UK's behaviour and did not retaliate in any way.

So, the action which you think the EU should take but won't is not action "to protect a member state'; it's action to protect the EU's wider interests, but at the cost of a member state's interests.

you need to reframe your ranting in a slightly more credible way. Your confident prediction that the EU will take no action can't be presented as the EU abandoning the interests of a small member state. If you continue to present it this way, it just shows that you haven't really thought about this issue very much - or, possibly, at all - and this would suggest that your confident predictions may stand on a rather shaky analytical foundation.

pleasant Co.

Your confident prediction that the EU will take no action can't be presented as the EU abandoning the interests of a small member state

I'm a tad confused, wasn't kermit's other confident prediction that the EU's actions would have Ireland defacto out of the single market?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888570#Comment_117888570

There was a fair few Irish brexiters and those self hating irish who absolutely idolise the UK who were desperate for a big "I told you so when the EU abandoned us" not only did it not happen but even I a staunch Europhile was shocked at just how strongly the EU have backed and supported us

roosterman71

The UK are pushing back border controls again. Are the EU still implementing all their checks on October 1st? If so, what will the impacts be in both jurisdictions?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888830#Comment_117888830

Looks like the EU will be able to sell goods into the UK unimpeded while goods going the other way will be subject to the requisite checks and duties. The impact will be detrimental to UK exporters such as fishermen.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888830#Comment_117888830

EU implemented back on 1 January 2021.

Impact: EU can sell into UK unimpeded, UK cannot sell into EU unimpeded. Significant additional competitive advantage to EU companies and damage to UK businesses.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888981#Comment_117888981

I honestly don't think Boris government will be ready for July 2022 either; the problem is not that it's not doable (it is) but that it requires a strong person to drive it with a clear deliverable, vision and will to make it happen. All three are lacking in Boris "Yes, minister" government approach. They will flip flop and delay again, and again, and again (because adding even more controls will make the current issues even worse). Only question is how long will USA, Russia et al wait before they file the WTO case over unfair competition and how big the fine(s) will be (which of course Boris don't care about because that's an problem after he's left as PM).

Quin_Dub

Another Brexit victory

Pentland Group, the British owner of sports brands Speedo and Lacoste and the majority owner of stock market-listed retailer JD Sports, has shifted its tax domicile to Ireland. A new Irish group company set up to facilitate the deal has been allotted shares in the business valued at £5.13 billion (€6bn).

Family-controlled Pentland says it has made the move to “benefit from the European Union’s freedoms and regulatory environment” after Brexit. Its trading businesses remain in the UK where they are liable for tax on their operations, and Pentland is suggesting the move “does not save us any tax”.

How many is that now?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117889065#Comment_117889065

Part of the problem is that ministers are being selected for loyalty, not talent or capacity. I think they'll eventually get it together regarding customs but only after multiple delays. The situation as it is suits most parties. I'm not worried about the WTO. It was quite toothless when Trump was president and I doubt Biden has time to spend on fortifying it.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117889278#Comment_117889278

Implementation of customs controls seems totally chaotic and disorganised though. 'Kicking the can down the road' appears to be the motif of this non-government.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117889420#Comment_117889420

True. I did specify that it would be eventual for that reason. I expect the delays to continue for at least a year or two more.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117889248#Comment_117889248

does this this explain all the busy bee building activity down in the IFSC?

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117882472#Comment_117882472

I don't buy that the UK government won't comprehend the disruption. There have been so many negatives of Brexit dismissed as project fear that have come true. Experts have been dismissed but I am absolutely sure that relevant people in the government / civil service were aware of the issues that were coming. The politicians seem to have no problem adjusting their position based on the way the wind is blowing.

Data Regulation, while complicated, is well understood. I work in InfoSec in my organisation and we have privacy experts. Diverging from GDPR would be a mess (and an expensive mess). If I can figure it out then the ICO in the UK know this and I'm sure are advising the UK Gov.

Is it vast incompetence or total corruption or a total hatred of all things EU? Or a fourth option that I haven't considered? The UK Gov have changed so much for the negative in the name of Brexit. They've set the country back years and to gain what? Sovereignty?

It’s a mixture of incompetence and dogmatic hatred of the EU and diehard devotion to libertarian economics, something most of the electorate genuinely didn’t comprehend they voted for.

It’s being driven by people who would be better off as tabloid journalists. They rate success as electoral success only. They also grossly overestimate their own ability.

I think many also underestimate the impact of the civil service having been disregarded, dismissed and treated very badly. Plenty of senior people left or got themselves promoted to safe jobs away from the crazy.

So I suspect you’re looking at a response that is just going to let the Tories implement policy, without any safety mode switched on. If it crashes, it will be entirely on them.

Personally, I think the U.K. is headed for a total mess and politically this won’t be resolved until they have experienced it. You’ve an electorate and media that mostly inhabit a realm of spin and waffle.

This Brexit Britain will have to perform on the global stage, but unfortunately it’s not looking like the bad, hugely over confident comedian with a routine that goes wallop on stage.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117891621#Comment_117891621

Just on that point, there must be THOUSANDS of public servants who have left over the past 6 years.

Think of the dozens of very public resignations, sackings, and reshuffles throughout TM's and BJ's time, and think of all the people behind the scenes who left with them. Secretaries, support staff, etc etc.

You'd have to wonder how much experience is left in Westminster.

EDIT: Just found a wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_departures_from_the_second_May_ministry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_departures_from_the_first_Johnson_ministry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_departures_from_the_second_Johnson_ministry

Well you have to remember it’s not worth the hassle to someone at that stage or their career dealing with this level of crazy. They were and are being asked to do the impossible in a lot of cases and are being put into situations that aren’t really resolvable.

Then you’ve a rather aggressive style of politics that is extremely likely to push the blame onto the civil service and officials if it goes wrong and walk away from the mess.

There have also been horrible working relationships, as evidenced by the bullying allegations etc.

Most people won’t want to go anywhere near that, if at all avoidable. So you either leave and go to the private sector, academia, a think tank, a public body doing something, the diplomatic corps or retire.

There are limits to how much stupid people will put up with.

Most civil servants, despite the stereotype often thrown at them, are driven by a sense of public service and actually achieving something. A lot of people in various government departments at mid and high level are more similar to academics or similar in terms of what motivates them. You’re talking about basically public policy geeks (and I mean that in a positive way)

They are often very, very competent people and I think they’ve been treated abysmally and their advice totally ignored.

Can you imagine being sent into the EU negotiations with the briefs they’ve been given?! To talk to people who were your colleagues and peers?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117891723#Comment_117891723

At least their EU counterparts sitting across the table will know their bind.

What's more troubling than personal career frustrations must be the knowledge that the current course is making your own nation poorer and more divided. That must be totally demoralising for any civil servant wonk committed to serving their nation.

Strazdas

Apparently there are over one million job vacancies in the UK and employers are finding it nigh on impossible to fill them.

Makes a bit of a mockery of the idea that Britain was "full" or that EU immigration was nothing but a burden or drain on the country.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888830#Comment_117888830

If they had a fully operational , fully staffed system then there'd be delays and overheads.

But since the UK are still following the existing standards and haven't deviated yet then all EU products are up to scratch so shouldn't be any food safety issues.. So the biggest issue for importers is the lack of truck drivers. And not collecting the imort tarrifs etc.