Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

forgottenhills

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, duh! :rolleyes:

Yes, those boats that were equipped with GPS transponders ten years ago, and have been recording their movements over the last decade and archiving the records, they've been able to get hold of a permit. But nobody was told ten years ago that that's what they'd be asked for in the Spring of 2021 - that was a requirement conjured up by the Channel Islanders in ... the Spring of 2021.

All kinds of new regulations have been introduced in 2021 that have to be complied with. In any case a commercial fishing boat that has been fishing without using GPS is a somewhat fishy tale to coin a phrase. Have these fishermen been fishing out of rowing boats? It's more plausible that these guys don't want to hand over records showing that they have been violating sustainable fisheries regulations in some way.

Widdensushi

forgottenhills wrote: »

All kinds of new regulations have been introduced in 2021 that have to be complied with. In any case a commercial fishing boat that has been fishing without using GPS is a somewhat fishy tale to coin a phrase. Have these fishermen been fishing out of rowing boats? It's more plausible that these guys don't want to hand over records showing that they have been violating sustainable fisheries regulations in some way.

I think vms(GPS transponders) only became mandatory in under 15 meter boats in 2012,i presume that is what is being referred to, I would have thought the areas recorded in their log books would be available. Either way again contrast the fact that UK put a twelve mile limit on rockall meaning that at least 20 irish boats won't be able to pursue the squid fishery there worth millions and the silence is deafening.

fash

forgottenhills wrote: »

Absolutely, its a ridiculous threat by the French to turn off electricity because a few fishermen are too lazy or inept to fill in a form (particularly given that most of them have already done so). This is the type of PR own goal that will make the UK population increasing happy at least for now with their decision to leave the EU.

Yes- the French are behaving like the British.

BonnieSituation

fash wrote: »

Yes- the French are behaving like the British.

Don't they know that only the exceptional Brits can act like the Brits?

CelticRambler

Widdensushi wrote: »

I would have thought the areas recorded in their log books would be available.

They are. The Channel Islands authorities won't accept them.

fash

fash wrote: »

Yes- the French are behaving like the British.

No, It's the French just being French, plenty of examples of French actions to force their point of view front & centre.


Three of many such actions in the links below.



https://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/17/world/french-protest-of-sheep-imports-turns-ugly.html


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42817263


https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/french-blockade-1.1098149

reslfj

forgottenhills wrote: »

...
If the UK has to accept the reality of now being a third country after Brexit then countries like France also have to accept the reality of UK sovereignty.

This is deep down a matter of strength. It's not a given that symmetrical rights or such logic will exists here.

forgottenhills wrote: »

Its a two way thing.

In many ways 'No'. The very small UK will have to follow the the much larger EU in areas upon areas.

I guess the EU will not expose the UK's lack of power and its impotence, unless it really has to. But the EU will see to its 27 members interest and ensure these will prevail.
Look at the WA and TCA. Look for UK benefits which are not in there.

Lars

serfboard

reslfj wrote: »

I guess the EU will not expose the UK's lack of power and its impotence, unless it really has to.

The EU, and the Eurozone in particular, had no problem in exposing the lack of power of some of its own members duing the financial crisis when it limited the flow of money from ATMs in Greece, or threatened the Irish government that a bomb would go off in Dublin if we burned bondholders, so why they should be playing nicey-nicey with Perfidious Albion is beyond me.

Igotadose

Nutkins wrote: »

Well one country has the 5th largest economy in the world and the other two didn't.
Even combined.
By a very big margin.

Only 4 posts and already one lie. India, the 4th largest economy in the world, isn't in the EU.

forgottenhills

CelticRambler wrote: »

They are. The Channel Islands authorities won't accept them.

The logbooks referred to seem to be electronic ones associated with VMS tracking ( a EU necessity for boats to have had for several years). Have you a link to a story where Jersey hasn't accepted a VMS logbook? Because it seems that they have already accepted these from many French boats and licensed them.

Widdensushi

CelticRambler wrote: »

They are. The Channel Islands authorities won't accept them.

Considering how the French suddenly found records of large quantities of fish they had caught when the cfp was being formed and subsequently got more of a tac in many species than they could catch I understand their scepticism.

Can't the French simply ask for historical proof that all these users on the island were using the electricity?

dogbert27

Nutkins wrote: »

Well one country has the 5th largest economy in the world and the other two didn't.
Even combined.
By a very big margin.

It's two different scenarios. The bondholders that Ireland were threatening to burn were German, French, UK, Dutch, Finnish (i.e. Grade A countries) pension investments.

If Ireland burnt the bondholders it would have had a domino affect through out Europe as other countries pensions would have been wiped out.

India has overtaken the UK who are now in 6th.

The services sector - finance, retail and entertainment make up 75% of the UKs GDP.

We are still waiting to see the full affects of Brexit on the City of London and the relocation of companies to Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, etc.

I think retail and entertainment have taken a hammering in every country due to the coronavirus so the decline there would be across the board.

I don't see them slipping from 6th any time soon nor do I see them shooting up the table overtaking Germany, Japan or the United States.

Enzokk

Interesting article on Barnier and the negotiations.

Michel Barnier reveals 'frustrations' with DUP during Brexit talks

Lots of interesting snippets and I am sure the book will be interesting to read. I still remember the talk about what Ireland was doing about the border discussions and whether there were actual plans or not. We were hoping to implement the border at NI ports and not to undertake any visible preparations for a land border initially. So it seems to me that there were plans, just never written down by our government.

Mr Barnier writes that during a meeting with the then taoiseach and the former European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in February 2019, he told Mr Varadkar: "We must be clear between us. Controls to protect the single market must be put in place somewhere. Either around the island, or on the interior of the island. Or on the continent, which has the risk of excluding Ireland from the single market, which we don’t want."

He says that in the event of no-deal in the autumn of 2018, the Irish government expected that a hard border could be avoided by building on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls at Northern Ireland ports, and in the hope that the European Commission would initially be flexible.

"In any case, they did not want to undertake visible preparations in restoring a physical frontier [on the land border]," Mr Barnier recalls.

He is also scathing of the DUP as being inflexible, no surprise, and also of Raab and Davis for being basically incompetent. That is current Foreign Secretary Raab who was in charge of the country when Johnson went down with Covid.

Peregrinus

There's nothing remotely surprising here, though, is there? Barnier found the DUP inflexible and was frustrated by them? Well, join the long line of anybody who has ever dealt with the DUP on any topic whatsoever. Raab and Davis were incompetent? Tell us something we didn't know. The Irish government didn't want to be seen making preparation for a land border? Well, duh; of course they didn't.

I've no doubt there will be nuggets of novel, interesting and signficant information in the book, and I'll certainly read it when the English translation comes out (in October, apparently). But everything trailed so far — that I've seen, anyway — has been deeply unsurprising.

ambro25

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's nothing remotely surprising here, though, is there? Barnier found the DUP inflexible and was frustrated by them? Well, join the long line of anybody who has ever dealt with the DUP on any topic whatsoever. Raab and Davis were incompetent? Tell us something we didn't know. The Irish government didn't want to be seen making preparation for a land border? Well, duh; of course they didn't.

I've no doubt there will be nuggets of novel, interesting and signficant information in the book, and I'll certainly read it when the English translation comes out (in October, apparently). But everything trailed so far — that I've seen, anyway — has been deeply unsurprising.

There would never be, for any of "us" longtime Brexit observers and commenters: this book is a diary of Barnier's time negotiating Brexit on behalf of the Commission, and I expect that each one of "us" could write substantially the same account recalling events of the last 5 years, given "our" forensic-grade scrutiny of each development since 2016 (and earlier, for those observing the issue since before the referendum) and the extra contextual knowledge and insights gained from living in, or being otherwise associated with (at least through this forum membership), Ireland in particular.

That book can probably stand as a executive summary of the commentary of the last 13 Brexit threads

Sam Russell

ambro25 wrote: »

There would never be, for any of "us" longtime Brexit observers and commenters: this book is a diary of Barnier's time negotiating Brexit on behalf of the Commission, and I expect that each one of "us" could write substantially the same account recalling events of the last 5 years, given "our" forensic-grade scrutiny of each development since 2016 (and earlier, for those observing the issue since before the referendum) and the extra contextual knowledge and insights gained from living in, or being otherwise associated with (at least through this forum membership), Ireland in particular.

That book can probably stand as a executive summary of the commentary of the last 13 Brexit threads

Perhaps boards.ie could get someone to edit and collate this thread and its predecessors and publish it as a detailed summary of the Brexit saga - with all its turns, predictions and petty disputes clearly flagged in advance.

There is a mine of information in the Brexit threads.

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

Perhaps boards.ie could get someone to edit and collate this thread and its predecessors and publish it as a detailed summary of the Brexit saga - with all its turns, predictions and petty disputes clearly flagged in advance.

There is a mine of information in the Brexit threads.

would it be like game of thrones with different perspective characters for each chapter?

which posters will be perspective characters?

yagan

Nutkins wrote: »

The UK retook its 5th place spot in January.
And far from losing huge numbers of jobs the City remains the financial capital of Europe.

seamus

This is the link you're looking for.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c7c2597-4afd-4ade-bc19-02c3bbc53daf

I don't know, it's a cagey article. The graphs are poorly labelled, and there are no overall figures given anywhere.

Eyeballing those graphs, I'd say that the loss of jobs in foreign banks has been partially but not wholly offset by domestic bank growth and fund management growth.

It comes across as the FT trying to downplay the overall effects as being, "It's grand, don't panic".

The Raging Bile Duct

seamus wrote: »

This is the link you're looking for.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c7c2597-4afd-4ade-bc19-02c3bbc53daf

I don't know, it's a cagey article. The graphs are poorly labelled, and there are no overall figures given anywhere.

Eyeballing those graphs, I'd say that the loss of jobs in foreign banks has been partially but not wholly offset by domestic bank growth and fund management growth.

It comes across as the FT trying to downplay the overall effects as being, "It's grand, don't panic".

Article is from December of last year. This article from two weeks ago says that Brexit hit the City of London worse than expected:

Over 400 financial firms in Britain have shifted activities, staff and a combined trillion pounds ($1.4 trillion) in assets to hubs in the European Union due to Brexit, with more pain to come, a study from New Financial think tank said on Friday.

"We think it is an underestimate and we expect the numbers to increase over time: we are only at the end of the beginning of Brexit," the study said.

…

The total of 440 relocations is higher than anticipated and well above the 269 in New Financial's 2019 survey. New Financial believes the real number is well over 500.

Britain is bound to bounce back this year and it's going to have decent growth figures but it is coming from a point where it suffered its biggest drop in economic output in 300 years.

It's still far too early to know what the long term effects are going to be and just because some of the fallout isn't as catastrophic as some doom-mongers were predicting doesn't mean it isn't very bad for Team GB.

BlitzKrieg

seamus wrote: »

This is the link you're looking for.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c7c2597-4afd-4ade-bc19-02c3bbc53daf

I don't know, it's a cagey article. The graphs are poorly labelled, and there are no overall figures given anywhere.

Eyeballing those graphs, I'd say that the loss of jobs in foreign banks has been partially but not wholly offset by domestic bank growth and fund management growth.

It comes across as the FT trying to downplay the overall effects as being, "It's grand, don't panic".

Its cagey cause it looks like it's part of a series of articles covering numerous aspects

here is another one just a few days later that leans more on the difficulties facing London: https://www.ft.com/content/f7845948-e3bd-4e5f-ab7d-55c8eb116569

and the index for the articles: https://www.ft.com/content/7cb77b07-2174-4a7c-b12e-1524615f82b0

they all seem to boil down to the same point "London might be f*cked, or it might be ok, whatever happens it's going to be a long term situation, it's not going to happen overnight"

Sam Russell

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Its cagey cause it looks like it's part of a series of articles covering numerous aspects

here is another one just a few days later that leans more on the difficulties facing London: https://www.ft.com/content/f7845948-e3bd-4e5f-ab7d-55c8eb116569

and the index for the articles: https://www.ft.com/content/7cb77b07-2174-4a7c-b12e-1524615f82b0

they all seem to boil down to the same point "London might be f*cked, or it might be ok, whatever happens it's going to be a long term situation, it's not going to happen overnight"

Those FT articles are all dated Dec 2020.

Remind me, when did the shutters come down on Brexit and actual restrictions begin?

Leroy42

Nutkins wrote: »

You don't think all those big City firms would have factored this in to their advanced preparations ?
There's no doubt funds have been shifted out of the City and some firms have moved small numbers of staff to places like Frankfurt and Dublin but the tsunami of disapearing jobs hasn't materialised.
Neither has the M20 stack of lorries in Kent that was predicted.
Posers may also recall that the FT was one of the biggest opponents of Brexit on Fleet Street - the idea that they would sugarcoat any bad news in 2021 is nonsense.
Britains's economy is in for bumpy ride post-Brexit there is no doubt but it has size and resilience on its side and, as the vaccine roll-out has shown and was noted by Michel Barnier this week, it has the ability to act quickly and strategically because it is not longer in the EU.

So you accept that Brexit is a negative. You are arguing over the size of that negative.
But since Project Fear was ignored and dismissed, it cannot now be used a a justification for the failure of Brexit to deliver. The voters rejected the notion of Project fear, opting for the lines told by the Brexit side.

But none of it has materialized. And it is only beginning and the trend is very much that the negatives will continue since there is nothing to suggest how they will be turned around.

It might not seem like much, but the job of a government is to better the country, not make it only slightly worse.

The lack of lorries is because the UK lost control of its borders, completely contrary to the Brexit promise. THe UK, ATM, is doing no checks, no controls.

As for the vaccine roll-out, all the decisions were made whilst the UK were still part of the EU. They could, and did, make them regardless of that. THere is an argument to be made that the uK would have gone along with the EU rollout instead without Brexit, but then one doesn't know what impact that would have had on the overall if the UK had taken a bigger lead in the EU side.

What is known, is that the EU will catchup on vaccines, so the victory will be short lived. Then the reality of the tougher set of business practices will still need to be dealt with putting the UK at a disadvantage to the EU competitors.

Leroy42

Nutkins wrote: »

Actually completely the opposite - I think Brexit will be a huge success in the long-term both financially and socially but that horse has now bolted so there's really no point in going over old ground.
But opinion polls have yet to show buyer's remorse among Leavers and there's an increasing number of Remainers who think that way.
If there was another referendum tomorrow I think there'd be an even bigger margin in favour.

That you think that, without any evidence, is hardly surprising. You are clearly well bought into the narrative that Johnson is a saviour so it makes sense that his No 1 idealogy will be a success.

Do you at least accept that up to this point Brexit is a negative? If not, can you point to the positives?

Some time. In the future.
Not sure how, who or what success will be.
But it will definitely be a success.

Despite it being a complete car crash where none of the promises have been met and the country itself is now in danger of splitting.

CelticRambler

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Jokes aside anyone have details of what’s happening with France and Boris sending in the boats and how it all start

As of today, Thursday, based on a report in Le Figaro, the French have sent two navy patrol boats to the area to keep an eye on the situation. The French assert that the idea that 41 permits were granted is pure spin by the Channel Islands authorities, because those permits contain numerous conditions and restrictions which were not notified in advance, and which do not allow a continuance of the French fishermen's previous activity.

Again, citing Le Figaro, this Thursday morning, the Minister re-stated her/France's position that the TCA - now ratified - allows for the application of punitive measures, including provisions regarding the supply of energy, against the UK if the UK does not respect the terms and conditions of the TCA. In this context, if the UK/Channel Islands don't demonstrate good faith and comply with the TCA as ratified, France reserves the right to take any targeted measures it feels appropriate.

Dans une déclaration ce jeudi matin, la ministre de la Mer persiste et signe: «l'accord du Brexit prévoit des mesures de rétorsion en cas de non-respect de l'une des parties. Parmi celles-ci, il existe une mesure liée à notre accord sur l'énergie (...). Avant que la Commission européenne garante du respect de l'accord n'en arrive à une telle extrémité, je souhaite que les autorités britanniques reviennent sur leur décision».

Qiaonasen

Nutkins. I think you are living on another planet.

Nutkins

Nutkins wrote: »

I'm living in the UK.
It is not a country that I recognise from the image portrayed in much of the Irish media.
It's not my country either.

Interesting?
Where is "home" if you don't consider the UK your country?

schmoo2k

Nutkins wrote: »

Actually completely the opposite - I think Brexit will be a huge success in the long-term both financially and socially but that horse has now bolted so there's really no point in going over old ground.
But opinion polls have yet to show buyer's remorse among Leavers and there's an increasing number of Remainers who think that way.
If there was another referendum tomorrow I think there'd be an even bigger margin in favour.

I disagree with the Brexit will ever be a great success - at some point in the future the UK may do better but your talking about generations and by then Brexit will not be the reason. While this is my opinion I am basing it on what has happened over the last 4 months and to a lesser extent the last 5 years.

I agree that public opinion in the UK does appear to still be in favour of it and yes a new referendum in the morning could potentially have a larger support %.

But at some point, sentiment and reality will clash, I wonder if this will happen before or after the next general election in the UK? (Not that it well make any difference to the economy, but interesting none the less)

schmoo2k

Nutkins wrote: »

I'm Irish.
I've lived and worked in the UK for several decades.
Why should that be interesting ?

Without mentioning vaccines - what makes you think Brexit will be a success?