Volkswagen VOW3

Chuckie_Egg

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been buying this share constantly each month. I intended to put about €13k euro in to it in two weeks from now but it is just so expensive now for what will always be a low margin industry. I have no intention of selling ATM.

It's had a good run up since the thread started, I still believe we are only halfway, this company has a proven track record. So while it may look expensive, look at it's competitors and see their valuations
It's market cap is still $100 Billion off Toyota. It's still only worth $40 billion more than Nio. I won't mention Tesla as they are not supposed to be a "car company"

No I've developed diamond hands here too

micosoft

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Chuckie_Egg

That's ok if you believe that VW are not at the races with regard to EVs and driverless vehicles. Both of which couldn't be further from the truth.
VW are outselling Tesla in the EV market.
VW are releasing self driving Taxi's in 2025
Bet against them at your perl.

Tesla have had there first taste of the real world of the car Industry with a major car recall recently, (and it looks like we will have another one too). Their standards are not as great as they have the PR led you to believe.

littlevillage

micosoft wrote: »

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Interesting, but shared motoring will only ever be viable in large cities. Soo there will definitely be a market for lots of small efficient electric cars....and more than likely Hydrogen/bio -fuel vehicles also.

My thesis is certainly borne out if you look at the SP's of traditional car makers versus "new" EV car makers in 2021....there has been a move back to the likes of VW, Ford, GM ...and away from Tesla, Nio, etc.

I sold Tesla at the beginning of this year and switched into VW & GM ....only sorry, I didn't ditch NIO and CCIV too and pick up some Ford and maybe Stellantis.

Jambonjunior

micosoft wrote: »

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Any rational analysis has Tesla as a massive laggard in this space.

jams100

When I bought Volkswagen last week I wasn't expecting it to be up nearly 20% in 7 days!
I wont complain though
Not a big fan of when stocks move with no news or new earnings though (even if the move is up)

Chuckie_Egg

Didn't expect this to start rising as fast either, the news that they expect to deliver 1 million EVs and hybrids in 2021 plus it looks like Porche could be spun off in an IPO are driving the market now. It now looks like Herbert Diess is aiming to take back it's position from Tesla, and this might just happen now. With the mad valuations of general junk I don't think its unreasonable that the market cap of Volkswagen should be much higher.
It's a pity I'm in VOW3 as short term the gains from VOW have been better. Long term I still believe VOW3 will prove a better investment. Short term trades probably favor VOW

jams100

jams100 wrote: »

Not a big fan of when stocks move with no news or new earnings though (even if the move is up)

There was news.
UBS investor analysis.
Deliverys and factory build out progressing according to plan.
No major chip shortage bottleneck(compared to others) although it will reduce volumes by 1 million units.
Battery Day.
Over the air updates
fleshed out product offering in EV area on a number of platforms.

They are executing very well but still sudden increase in share price "feels" speculative. Long term I see them being worth more.

Chuckie_Egg

Also Apple may have chosen VW. If this is the case then it is massive news. It could also explain who has been buying VW. It takes more than us plebs to move a stock like this.

jams100

Deleted User wrote: »

There was news.
UBS investor analysis.
Deliverys and factory build out progressing according to plan.
No major chip shortage bottleneck(compared to others) although it will reduce volumes by 1 million units.
Battery Day.
Over the air updates
fleshed out product offering in EV area on a number of platforms.

They are executing very well but still sudden increase in share price "feels" speculative. Long term I see them being worth more.

News, that in my opinion, shouldn't make it rise so much in such a short time is what I meant. There was also news that they lost out on building 100k cars due to chip shortage.

I'm not complaining, I think long term its undervalued. I just feel more comfortable when a stock makes steady gains rather than 10% per day

Also Apple may have chosen VW. If this is the case then it is massive news. It could also explain who has been buying VW. It takes more than us plebs to move a stock like this.

That would be big news, although they seem to be linked to a new car company every week. I'll only believe that when i see it

JibJabWibWab

Jambonjunior wrote: »

Any rational analysis has Tesla as a massive laggard in this space.

Tesla are a laggard in the driverless car space?
Can you please explain why you think that?

daheff

Managed to dump some VOW3 at 250(from an outstanding sell order that luckily got filled on Thursday). Price dropped pretty much straight after so bought back in at 235.

bcklschaps

VW has been on a powerful run of late. Taking a breather today though.


Kathie Wood taking a steaming p1ss on them probably didn't help.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cathie-woods-ark-unimpressed-054623076.html

littlevillage

Anybody paying attention to Stock twits this week?

There's a train of thought that buying Porsche SE (a public company that seems to just be a holding company that owns nothing except VW shares) is a particularly good way of getting into VW?

Porsche SE is not to be confused with Porsche AG (who make the cars) and is 100% owned by VW.

It goes like this. Porsche SE own 31% of VW. A holding valued at about €40b. (Using a VW market cap of €120-€130b). Meanwhile Porsche SE has a full market cap of less than €30b.

Soo Porsche SE shares are trading at only 75% NAV. ....and in effect by buying a Porsche SE share you are buying a VW share at a 25% discount.

This is all theoretical of course...and assumes that one day Porsche SE shares will rise in value to match their NAV.

Just for context lots of companies Shares trade at a discount to NAV....and NEVER achieve parity. DYOR

Mad_maxx

well i could not have been more wrong about VW

beauf

Mad_maxx wrote: »

well i could not have been more wrong about VW

What happened for those of us who are just lurking.

he said shares for legacy auto manufacturers were and will always be dogs or words to that effect.

UpBack1234

Deleted User wrote: »

he said shares for legacy auto manufacturers were and will always be dogs or words to that effect.

Hmm I think the transition to EVs may change all that. For example VW launching the ID4 - compact SUV all-EV around the 40k mark will be a gamechanger.

As Volkswagen shares are too expensive with respect to the profit the company can generate I am not buying any more. I will hold what I've got.
Instead, I have just purchased over 340 shares in Renault. I doubt they will do as well as Volkswagen but they have a good knowledge of EV technology and market, are producing good product, have a good plan to stop trying to win market share and stop expanding in to developing countries at no profit.
Dacia and EV product are convincing and they appear to be hedging their bets by developing the mobility market which Volkswagen group are neglecting.
It won't make me a millionaire but I doubt I'll lose the shirt off my back.
Thankfully they have moved most production out of France so are not held hostage by French Unions and Government to the same extent as they were in the past.
I've driven Renaults for the last 10 years; Good cars afflicted by a bad reputation from the early 2000s when they paid lip service to quality.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

As Volkswagen shares are too expensive with respect to the profit the company can generate I am not buying any more. I will hold what I've got.
Instead, I have just purchased over 340 shares in Renault. I doubt they will do as well as Volkswagen but they have a good knowledge of EV technology and market, are producing good product, have a good plan to stop trying to win market share and stop expanding in to developing countries at no profit.
Dacia and EV product are convincing and they appear to be hedging their bets by developing the mobility market which Volkswagen group are neglecting.
It won't make me a millionaire but I doubt I'll lose the shirt off my back.
Thankfully they have moved most production out of France so are not held hostage by French Unions and Government to the same extent as they were in the past.
I've driven Renaults for the last 10 years; Good cars afflicted by a bad reputation from the early 2000s when they paid lip service to quality.

Renault make perfectly good cars today but the obstacle all french company stocks face is french government meddling

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Renault make perfectly good cars today but the obstacle all french company stocks face is french government meddling

French government meddle more when there are French unions agitating. They have very few French factories now.

Banana Republic 1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As Volkswagen shares are too expensive with respect to the profit the company can generate I am not buying any more. I will hold what I've got.
Instead, I have just purchased over 340 shares in Renault. I doubt they will do as well as Volkswagen but they have a good knowledge of EV technology and market, are producing good product, have a good plan to stop trying to win market share and stop expanding in to developing countries at no profit.
Dacia and EV product are convincing and they appear to be hedging their bets by developing the mobility market which Volkswagen group are neglecting.
It won't make me a millionaire but I doubt I'll lose the shirt off my back.
Thankfully they have moved most production out of France so are not held hostage by French Unions and Government to the same extent as they were in the past.
I've driven Renaults for the last 10 years; Good cars afflicted by a bad reputation from the early 2000s when they paid lip service to quality.

The Nissan side of that scale doesn’t look so hot. Allot of these car brands will end up merging to stay alive, even Merc and BMW..

Banana Republic 1

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

The Nissan side of that scale doesn’t look so hot. Allot of these car brands will end up merging to stay alive, even Merc and BMW..

Nissan and Renault are mostly going their own ways now which is good as Nissan have no real direction. They are sharing technology on some of the platforms but Nissan can't pull Renault down as they are a separate company. It is no VAG but it isn't as highly priced as Renault so I see it as a way of spreading risk while being in an industry which I'm interested in. I'll buy more this month.

Banana Republic 1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nissan and Renault are mostly going their own ways now which is good as Nissan have no real direction. They are sharing technology on some of the platforms but Nissan can't pull Renault down as they are a separate company. It is no VAG but it isn't as highly priced as Renault so I see it as a way of spreading risk while being in an industry which I'm interested in. I'll buy more this month.

hat are people thoughts on Porsche 3 shares they control bag group and also brands like Scania, trucks, and I think DAF aswell as other stuff. The world and his ostrich are all into VOW3, maybe cause most don’t realise the link, I don’t know?

I haven’t went in myself to Porsche.

littlevillage

Vow3 (& likewise its proxy, Pah3) taking a bit of a beating in the last week or two. Down from a high of €250 to €220 now. Soo its fallen 12-13%.

I'm still 30% up and feel its a long term hold .... but getting a little worried that if its falling at a consistent 1% per day, should I be taking profits ....and buying back in later? Thoughts

I'm up 83% and I'm going to do nothing. If it drops back to 170 or 180 euro I won't care as it wasn't bought speculatively.

daheff

littlevillage wrote: »

Vow3 (& likewise its proxy, Pah3) taking a bit of a beating in the last week or two. Down from a high of €250 to €220 now. Soo its fallen 12-13%.

I'm still 30% up and feel its a long term hold .... but getting a little worried that if its falling at a consistent 1% per day, should I be taking profits ....and buying back in later? Thoughts

kinda feels like its oversold a bit.

i'm thinking 235 ~240ish is a bounceback target if it can consolidate around 220 for a few days

littlevillage

daheff wrote: »

kinda feels like its oversold a bit.

i'm thinking 235 ~240ish is a bounceback target if it can consolidate around 220 for a few days

Yeah, its the chip shortage stuff that is dragging them all down. But this shortage will surely be sorted later this year (deffo by next year).

I'll hang tough on VOW3 for the time being anyway.

I actually opened a starting position in Ford today. Its down 10% on the day....which really looks overdone.

daheff

So VOW has had a bit of a bounce back the last few session. Back up to the 240-250 ish range (hopefully hit the top of that range as it's my sell target).