Volkswagen VOW3

Chuckie_Egg

Being tipping away buying this since November, I'm more Bullish on them than Tesla or Nio in the current market especially after their 2020 performance during Covid, demand for its electric models jumped by 158% on the year, to 212,000 vehicles.
It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.
Its market cap is less than Nio.
Share price is at 2016 levels.
This is not Ford or GM, you are not swimming against the tide here, they are embracing the change.
I see this easily doubling the share price

Mad_maxx

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

Being tipping away buying this since November, I'm more Bullish on them than Tesla or Nio in the current market especially after their 2020 performance during Covid, demand for its electric models jumped by 158% on the year, to 212,000 vehicles.
It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.
Its market cap is less than Nio.
Share price is at 2016 levels.
This is not Ford or GM, you are not swimming against the tide here, they are embracing the change.
I see this easily doubling the share price

its a company which isnt going to disappear and the dividend is decent but dont expect any major capital gains

auto stocks are traditionally solid dividend payers like banks , they arent growth stocks in the eyes of the market , that it sells multitudes of Tesla each year is irrelevant , Tesla is all about the future in several ways , the market only looks forward

dontparkhere

Mad_maxx wrote: »

its a company which isnt going to disappear and the dividend is decent but dont expect any major capital gains

auto stocks are traditionally solid dividend payers like banks , they arent growth stocks in the eyes of the market , that it sells multitudes of Tesla each year is irrelevant , Tesla is all about the future in several ways , the market only looks forward

Tesla are so much about the future that their market cap is already 5-10 years ahead of where it should be all going well... :pac:

ted1

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

.
It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.

Tesla are more than an car company. Tesla energy has potential. they are doing large scale grid batteries that will grow significantly over the next few years. moving away from thermal GenSets to solar and particularly wind, requires BESS.

The domestic side should also ramp up over the next few years.


and then if/when they get the RoboTaxi fleet up and running they'll dominate there. look at the value of ubber who are only a booking company. Tesla will do the booking and driving.

Chuckie_Egg

I don't see this as Volkswagen Vs Tesla, its more Volkswagen Vs the rest of the Car makers especially Toyota, GM, Ford and the PSA Groupe.
EV is a game changer and Toyota & co are still not at the races.
VW are in a position now to really mass produce EVs over the next 10 years, on a much bigger scale than other EV makers. Herbert Diess has now got the full support of the key stakeholders at VW.
Currently trading at 30% below its fair value with earnings are forecast to grow 47% per year. It's hard to find companies trading below fair value after the year we've had. Much easier to find those on skyhigh valuations with no substance. I'm quietly optimistic that this could see a share price of €300+ within then next 18 months

GazzaL

VW seems like a solid investment to me, not that I'm an expert. The valuation gap between VW and Tesla is massive. Tesla is valued as a tech company, VW is lumped in with traditional automotive manufacturers. VW is a leader in EVs, they have massive brand equity, will be investing massively in R&D (more than Tesla), and Herbert Diess is committed to overhauling VW. To be able to buy shares in VW below book value given the amount of hot money in the market seems like good value.

Mad_maxx

GazzaL wrote: »

VW seems like a solid investment to me, not that I'm an expert. The valuation gap between VW and Tesla is massive. Tesla is valued as a tech company, VW is lumped in with traditional automotive manufacturers. VW is a leader in EVs, they have massive brand equity, will be investing massively in R&D (more than Tesla), and Herbert Diess is committed to overhauling VW. To be able to buy shares in VW below book value given the amount of hot money in the market seems like good value.

yes but autos are not a traditionally strong performing sector in terms of stock appreciation , bit like airlines

GazzaL

Mad_maxx wrote: »

yes but autos are not a traditionally strong performing sector in terms of stock appreciation , bit like airlines

I'm not expecting an outlandish return, but it's fundamentally sound at a time when there's a lot of hot money flowing around, and at a time where there is a big transitional shift about to take place in the auto industry.

daheff

I bought in on the back of this thread. Not much, but it's a nice diversify for my portfolio

Chuckie_Egg

VW on the move again today. Results were better than expected.
Hess has taken to twitter and issued a challenge to Musk
ID3 has already topped EV sales.
This is starting to get interesting

Atlas_IRL

For me with the EV market i see all the new players coming out with EV's with brilliant features, fully digital, over the air updates etc. I haven't seen any of the traditional car companies with the features of the new companies. All the EV's in Ireland look like normal cars with the exception of tesla. I want an EV such as a nio/fsr,xpeng,tesla, haven't seen anything in comparison from the ice manufactures.

Supercell

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

For me with the EV market i see all the new players coming out with EV's with brilliant features, fully digital, over the air updates etc. I haven't seen any of the traditional car companies with the features of the new companies. All the EV's in Ireland look like normal cars with the exception of tesla. I want an EV such as a nio/fsr,xpeng,tesla, haven't seen anything in comparison from the ice manufactures.

True, a VW EV just doesn't excite me the way a Tesla or Nio would (not that i can afford either and probably will end up buying a second hand VW EV in the end!).

Chuckie_Egg

ID6 images leaked.
VW growing nicely, SP up to €170, gathering momentum lately and we are still not out of Covid

bs2014

Investor amature here and I know must people recommend spreading risk accross mixed funds but since I'm a car enthusiast I would be interested in investing a few grand in automotive shares. Where would be a good place to go? An Irish share broker?

theboringfox

Ya I lean the same way on thoughts on VW. Thought of buying some. It has a lot of debt and it is not just s car company but a bank also. I will probably buy next month but am also looking at BMW shares.

bs2014

theboringfox wrote: »

Ya I lean the same way on thoughts on VW. Thought of buying some. It has a lot of debt and it is not just s car company but a bank also. I will probably buy next month but am also looking at BMW shares.

Yeah have a love for bmw also...where do you actually buy them?

theboringfox

They are on Xetra ... Available on Degiro anyway.

Chuckie_Egg

VW flying again this morning, up to €184 now

littlevillage

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

VW flying again this morning, up to €184 now

Fair play for highlighting VW some time back. It's showing up as being under valued on the likes of Simply Wall Street and MorningStar.... and is certainly going to have a big shout in the future of transportation. It has also provided convenient dips to buy in on. (thumbs up)

Comhrá

littlevillage wrote: »

Fair play for highlighting VW some time back. It's showing up as being under valued on the likes of Simply Wall Street and MorningStar.... and is certainly going to have a big shout in the future of transportation. It has also provided convenient dips to buy in on. (thumbs up)

I got 1k of VW @ €1.73.5 last week and happy. Should be a good bet over the next few years.

This is not a Tesla or NIO. It isn't a retail investor playground. Despite the enviable position VAG finds itself in growth will be modest and share price will always be pegged to the profits they make and dividends they pay. I bought in after the diesel scandal and have been picking up shares regularly ever since then. It is getting a bit pricey now and I await indications as to how well their electric models are selling in this quarter and next. I'll still probably buy more but now I view it more than ever as a safe haven rather than a speculative play.

Chuckie_Egg

Deleted User wrote: »

This is not a Tesla or NIO. It isn't a retail investor playground. Despite the enviable position VAG finds itself in growth will be modest and share price will always be pegged to the profits they make and dividends they pay. I bought in after the diesel scandal and have been picking up shares regularly ever since then. It is getting a bit pricey now and I await indications as to how well their electric models are selling in this quarter and next. I'll still probably buy more but now I view it more than ever as a safe haven rather than a speculative play.

idk, I think the market is moving away from risk towards stocks with solid fundamentals. "safe havens" might not be a bad place over the next while.
VW have really gone all in on EV at the moment, just look at the amount of TV advertising now. I think 2021 is going to be a great year for them.
They've just announced the self driving Taxi, I think this is big news, but still a few years away.
Chip shortage is a problem, but it's one they've been getting a handle on since last April.
The SP seemed to find a floor at €1.60 lately, it may test it again if they get any setbacks but that would be a good entry point for anyone looking for a margin of safety.

daheff

UBS had a report out during the week with a price target of 300.


Question on how to trade this vs Porsche shares.

jams100

What is the difference between ticker VOW & VOW3?

I'm presuming something to do with voting and possible higher dividend but this isn't very clear. Anyone know?
Seems like an attractive and safe dividend either way

Chuckie_Egg

VOW3 are preferential shares with no voting rights. The VOW shares are the common stock and trade higher. The reason I choose VOW3 was it was at a discount compared to VOW when I started then thread, in the past they have traded higher but not usually, they usually trade lower but in general they trade in sync. If I was to choose again today looking at the price difference I would again be going with VOW3 as it seems to have a bit to catch up to VOW plus you get a higher dividend (which is why they are lower now as the dividend was cut after the emissions scandal)
btw Googles Ordinary and preferred shares trade at only a 5% discount

littlevillage

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

VOW3 are preferential shares with no voting rights. The VOW shares are the common stock and trade higher. The reason I choose VOW3 was it was at a discount compared to VOW when I started then thread, in the past they have traded higher but not usually, they usually trade lower but in general they trade in sync. If I was to choose again today looking at the price difference I would again be going with VOW3 as it seems to have a bit to catch up to VOW plus you get a higher dividend (which is why they are lower now as the dividend was cut after the emissions scandal)
btw Googles Ordinary and preferred shares trade at only a 5% discount

I just picked the one that trades in higher volumes ie. More liquid...and thats VOW3.

This share has got expensive in the last few weeks.

daheff

Deleted User wrote: »

This share has got expensive in the last few weeks.

Up 29% today

29%


VOW3 isn't though. Any reason why this line is only up ~6%


Like I've only made 25% on my investment...I blame the OP for dodgy investment advise :D

littlevillage

VOW +16%
VOW3 +7%

Today.

Might be down to liquidity...ie. poor liquidity, bigger spread.

Regardless, its a bloody good day....brokers have VOW3 targets at €250.

Chuckie_Egg

It's going well, VOW3 will follow, it just moves a bit off the pace. VOW3 will eventually come into it's own once the dividends increase at which stage the two tickers will flip. After that it'll be up to you to hold for the dividends or cash in.
Till then keep the faith!!

I've been buying this share constantly each month. I intended to put about €13k euro in to it in two weeks from now but it is just so expensive now for what will always be a low margin industry. I have no intention of selling ATM.

Chuckie_Egg

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been buying this share constantly each month. I intended to put about €13k euro in to it in two weeks from now but it is just so expensive now for what will always be a low margin industry. I have no intention of selling ATM.

It's had a good run up since the thread started, I still believe we are only halfway, this company has a proven track record. So while it may look expensive, look at it's competitors and see their valuations
It's market cap is still $100 Billion off Toyota. It's still only worth $40 billion more than Nio. I won't mention Tesla as they are not supposed to be a "car company"

No I've developed diamond hands here too

micosoft

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Chuckie_Egg

That's ok if you believe that VW are not at the races with regard to EVs and driverless vehicles. Both of which couldn't be further from the truth.
VW are outselling Tesla in the EV market.
VW are releasing self driving Taxi's in 2025
Bet against them at your perl.

Tesla have had there first taste of the real world of the car Industry with a major car recall recently, (and it looks like we will have another one too). Their standards are not as great as they have the PR led you to believe.

littlevillage

micosoft wrote: »

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Interesting, but shared motoring will only ever be viable in large cities. Soo there will definitely be a market for lots of small efficient electric cars....and more than likely Hydrogen/bio -fuel vehicles also.

My thesis is certainly borne out if you look at the SP's of traditional car makers versus "new" EV car makers in 2021....there has been a move back to the likes of VW, Ford, GM ...and away from Tesla, Nio, etc.

I sold Tesla at the beginning of this year and switched into VW & GM ....only sorry, I didn't ditch NIO and CCIV too and pick up some Ford and maybe Stellantis.

Jambonjunior

micosoft wrote: »

The problem here is that people are looking far too much at impact of electrification and not enough at the changing business model of the motor industry. The reason for Tesla's valuation and for the huge bets the tech companies are making are driverless cars. I saw a really interesting review of the Tesla Y class presentation which makes no sense as a car (gull wings!, Ugly) but makes absolute sense as a driverless car (Gull wings mean you can pull up at curbs and less lightly to hit pedestrian. You can "stow your bag" under the front seats like an airline.

The reality of a world of driverless cars is that you end up with only needing 20% of the cars and the cars being more like "public service vehicles". So very expensive to put up with abuse and constant use. Like a bus. But far far fewer.

Personally owned cars will be reserved for folk who live a long way out OR as personal luxury vehicles for fun.

In that world you might see a massive cull of models and manufacturers which makes the VAG model not look great. Their model is built around the mass market car.

Hence why Tesla has it's share price and why software is eating the motor industry.

Someone said that VAG has a bank. In fact a lot motor companies (Ford being a good example) make their money from financial services and a slight loss on their vehicles. This could take a hit in above model.

Any rational analysis has Tesla as a massive laggard in this space.

jams100

When I bought Volkswagen last week I wasn't expecting it to be up nearly 20% in 7 days!
I wont complain though
Not a big fan of when stocks move with no news or new earnings though (even if the move is up)

Chuckie_Egg

Didn't expect this to start rising as fast either, the news that they expect to deliver 1 million EVs and hybrids in 2021 plus it looks like Porche could be spun off in an IPO are driving the market now. It now looks like Herbert Diess is aiming to take back it's position from Tesla, and this might just happen now. With the mad valuations of general junk I don't think its unreasonable that the market cap of Volkswagen should be much higher.
It's a pity I'm in VOW3 as short term the gains from VOW have been better. Long term I still believe VOW3 will prove a better investment. Short term trades probably favor VOW

jams100

jams100 wrote: »

Not a big fan of when stocks move with no news or new earnings though (even if the move is up)

There was news.
UBS investor analysis.
Deliverys and factory build out progressing according to plan.
No major chip shortage bottleneck(compared to others) although it will reduce volumes by 1 million units.
Battery Day.
Over the air updates
fleshed out product offering in EV area on a number of platforms.

They are executing very well but still sudden increase in share price "feels" speculative. Long term I see them being worth more.

Chuckie_Egg

Also Apple may have chosen VW. If this is the case then it is massive news. It could also explain who has been buying VW. It takes more than us plebs to move a stock like this.

jams100

Deleted User wrote: »

There was news.
UBS investor analysis.
Deliverys and factory build out progressing according to plan.
No major chip shortage bottleneck(compared to others) although it will reduce volumes by 1 million units.
Battery Day.
Over the air updates
fleshed out product offering in EV area on a number of platforms.

They are executing very well but still sudden increase in share price "feels" speculative. Long term I see them being worth more.

News, that in my opinion, shouldn't make it rise so much in such a short time is what I meant. There was also news that they lost out on building 100k cars due to chip shortage.

I'm not complaining, I think long term its undervalued. I just feel more comfortable when a stock makes steady gains rather than 10% per day

Also Apple may have chosen VW. If this is the case then it is massive news. It could also explain who has been buying VW. It takes more than us plebs to move a stock like this.

That would be big news, although they seem to be linked to a new car company every week. I'll only believe that when i see it

JibJabWibWab

Jambonjunior wrote: »

Any rational analysis has Tesla as a massive laggard in this space.

Tesla are a laggard in the driverless car space?
Can you please explain why you think that?

daheff

Managed to dump some VOW3 at 250(from an outstanding sell order that luckily got filled on Thursday). Price dropped pretty much straight after so bought back in at 235.

bcklschaps

VW has been on a powerful run of late. Taking a breather today though.


Kathie Wood taking a steaming p1ss on them probably didn't help.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cathie-woods-ark-unimpressed-054623076.html

littlevillage

Anybody paying attention to Stock twits this week?

There's a train of thought that buying Porsche SE (a public company that seems to just be a holding company that owns nothing except VW shares) is a particularly good way of getting into VW?

Porsche SE is not to be confused with Porsche AG (who make the cars) and is 100% owned by VW.

It goes like this. Porsche SE own 31% of VW. A holding valued at about €40b. (Using a VW market cap of €120-€130b). Meanwhile Porsche SE has a full market cap of less than €30b.

Soo Porsche SE shares are trading at only 75% NAV. ....and in effect by buying a Porsche SE share you are buying a VW share at a 25% discount.

This is all theoretical of course...and assumes that one day Porsche SE shares will rise in value to match their NAV.

Just for context lots of companies Shares trade at a discount to NAV....and NEVER achieve parity. DYOR

Mad_maxx

well i could not have been more wrong about VW

beauf

Mad_maxx wrote: »

well i could not have been more wrong about VW

What happened for those of us who are just lurking.

he said shares for legacy auto manufacturers were and will always be dogs or words to that effect.

UpBack1234

Deleted User wrote: »

he said shares for legacy auto manufacturers were and will always be dogs or words to that effect.

Hmm I think the transition to EVs may change all that. For example VW launching the ID4 - compact SUV all-EV around the 40k mark will be a gamechanger.

As Volkswagen shares are too expensive with respect to the profit the company can generate I am not buying any more. I will hold what I've got.
Instead, I have just purchased over 340 shares in Renault. I doubt they will do as well as Volkswagen but they have a good knowledge of EV technology and market, are producing good product, have a good plan to stop trying to win market share and stop expanding in to developing countries at no profit.
Dacia and EV product are convincing and they appear to be hedging their bets by developing the mobility market which Volkswagen group are neglecting.
It won't make me a millionaire but I doubt I'll lose the shirt off my back.
Thankfully they have moved most production out of France so are not held hostage by French Unions and Government to the same extent as they were in the past.
I've driven Renaults for the last 10 years; Good cars afflicted by a bad reputation from the early 2000s when they paid lip service to quality.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

As Volkswagen shares are too expensive with respect to the profit the company can generate I am not buying any more. I will hold what I've got.
Instead, I have just purchased over 340 shares in Renault. I doubt they will do as well as Volkswagen but they have a good knowledge of EV technology and market, are producing good product, have a good plan to stop trying to win market share and stop expanding in to developing countries at no profit.
Dacia and EV product are convincing and they appear to be hedging their bets by developing the mobility market which Volkswagen group are neglecting.
It won't make me a millionaire but I doubt I'll lose the shirt off my back.
Thankfully they have moved most production out of France so are not held hostage by French Unions and Government to the same extent as they were in the past.
I've driven Renaults for the last 10 years; Good cars afflicted by a bad reputation from the early 2000s when they paid lip service to quality.

Renault make perfectly good cars today but the obstacle all french company stocks face is french government meddling