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Volkswagen VOW3

  • 12-01-2021 7:44pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    Being tipping away buying this since November, I'm more Bullish on them than Tesla or Nio in the current market especially after their 2020 performance during Covid, demand for its electric models jumped by 158% on the year, to 212,000 vehicles.
    It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.
    Its market cap is less than Nio.
    Share price is at 2016 levels.
    This is not Ford or GM, you are not swimming against the tide here, they are embracing the change.
    I see this easily doubling the share price


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,289 ✭✭✭✭ Mad_maxx


    Being tipping away buying this since November, I'm more Bullish on them than Tesla or Nio in the current market especially after their 2020 performance during Covid, demand for its electric models jumped by 158% on the year, to 212,000 vehicles.
    It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.
    Its market cap is less than Nio.
    Share price is at 2016 levels.
    This is not Ford or GM, you are not swimming against the tide here, they are embracing the change.
    I see this easily doubling the share price

    its a company which isnt going to disappear and the dividend is decent but dont expect any major capital gains

    auto stocks are traditionally solid dividend payers like banks , they arent growth stocks in the eyes of the market , that it sells multitudes of Tesla each year is irrelevant , Tesla is all about the future in several ways , the market only looks forward


  • Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭ dontparkhere


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    its a company which isnt going to disappear and the dividend is decent but dont expect any major capital gains

    auto stocks are traditionally solid dividend payers like banks , they arent growth stocks in the eyes of the market , that it sells multitudes of Tesla each year is irrelevant , Tesla is all about the future in several ways , the market only looks forward

    Tesla are so much about the future that their market cap is already 5-10 years ahead of where it should be all going well... :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,607 ✭✭✭✭ ted1


    .
    It has a market cap of 1/11th of Tesla, it will out sell Tesla, it's already started to do that where their EV range is available.

    Tesla are more than an car company. Tesla energy has potential. they are doing large scale grid batteries that will grow significantly over the next few years. moving away from thermal GenSets to solar and particularly wind, requires BESS.

    The domestic side should also ramp up over the next few years.


    and then if/when they get the RoboTaxi fleet up and running they'll dominate there. look at the value of ubber who are only a booking company. Tesla will do the booking and driving.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    I don't see this as Volkswagen Vs Tesla, its more Volkswagen Vs the rest of the Car makers especially Toyota, GM, Ford and the PSA Groupe.
    EV is a game changer and Toyota & co are still not at the races.
    VW are in a position now to really mass produce EVs over the next 10 years, on a much bigger scale than other EV makers. Herbert Diess has now got the full support of the key stakeholders at VW.
    Currently trading at 30% below its fair value with earnings are forecast to grow 47% per year. It's hard to find companies trading below fair value after the year we've had. Much easier to find those on skyhigh valuations with no substance. I'm quietly optimistic that this could see a share price of €300+ within then next 18 months


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    VW seems like a solid investment to me, not that I'm an expert. The valuation gap between VW and Tesla is massive. Tesla is valued as a tech company, VW is lumped in with traditional automotive manufacturers. VW is a leader in EVs, they have massive brand equity, will be investing massively in R&D (more than Tesla), and Herbert Diess is committed to overhauling VW. To be able to buy shares in VW below book value given the amount of hot money in the market seems like good value.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,289 ✭✭✭✭ Mad_maxx


    GazzaL wrote: »
    VW seems like a solid investment to me, not that I'm an expert. The valuation gap between VW and Tesla is massive. Tesla is valued as a tech company, VW is lumped in with traditional automotive manufacturers. VW is a leader in EVs, they have massive brand equity, will be investing massively in R&D (more than Tesla), and Herbert Diess is committed to overhauling VW. To be able to buy shares in VW below book value given the amount of hot money in the market seems like good value.

    yes but autos are not a traditionally strong performing sector in terms of stock appreciation , bit like airlines


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    yes but autos are not a traditionally strong performing sector in terms of stock appreciation , bit like airlines

    I'm not expecting an outlandish return, but it's fundamentally sound at a time when there's a lot of hot money flowing around, and at a time where there is a big transitional shift about to take place in the auto industry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    I bought in on the back of this thread. Not much, but it's a nice diversify for my portfolio


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    VW on the move again today. Results were better than expected.
    Hess has taken to twitter and issued a challenge to Musk
    ID3 has already topped EV sales.
    This is starting to get interesting


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,853 ✭✭✭ Atlas_IRL


    For me with the EV market i see all the new players coming out with EV's with brilliant features, fully digital, over the air updates etc. I haven't seen any of the traditional car companies with the features of the new companies. All the EV's in Ireland look like normal cars with the exception of tesla. I want an EV such as a nio/fsr,xpeng,tesla, haven't seen anything in comparison from the ice manufactures.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,544 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    Atlas_IRL wrote: »
    For me with the EV market i see all the new players coming out with EV's with brilliant features, fully digital, over the air updates etc. I haven't seen any of the traditional car companies with the features of the new companies. All the EV's in Ireland look like normal cars with the exception of tesla. I want an EV such as a nio/fsr,xpeng,tesla, haven't seen anything in comparison from the ice manufactures.

    True, a VW EV just doesn't excite me the way a Tesla or Nio would (not that i can afford either and probably will end up buying a second hand VW EV in the end!).

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    ID6 images leaked.
    VW growing nicely, SP up to €170, gathering momentum lately and we are still not out of Covid


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭ bs2014


    Investor amature here and I know must people recommend spreading risk accross mixed funds but since I'm a car enthusiast I would be interested in investing a few grand in automotive shares. Where would be a good place to go? An Irish share broker?


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ theboringfox


    Ya I lean the same way on thoughts on VW. Thought of buying some. It has a lot of debt and it is not just s car company but a bank also. I will probably buy next month but am also looking at BMW shares.


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭ bs2014


    Ya I lean the same way on thoughts on VW. Thought of buying some. It has a lot of debt and it is not just s car company but a bank also. I will probably buy next month but am also looking at BMW shares.

    Yeah have a love for bmw also...where do you actually buy them?


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ theboringfox


    They are on Xetra ... Available on Degiro anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    VW flying again this morning, up to €184 now


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    VW flying again this morning, up to €184 now

    Fair play for highlighting VW some time back. It's showing up as being under valued on the likes of Simply Wall Street and MorningStar.... and is certainly going to have a big shout in the future of transportation. It has also provided convenient dips to buy in on. (thumbs up)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    Fair play for highlighting VW some time back. It's showing up as being under valued on the likes of Simply Wall Street and MorningStar.... and is certainly going to have a big shout in the future of transportation. It has also provided convenient dips to buy in on. (thumbs up)

    I got 1k of VW @ €1.73.5 last week and happy. Should be a good bet over the next few years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,987 ✭✭✭ haphaphap


    This is not a Tesla or NIO. It isn't a retail investor playground. Despite the enviable position VAG finds itself in growth will be modest and share price will always be pegged to the profits they make and dividends they pay. I bought in after the diesel scandal and have been picking up shares regularly ever since then. It is getting a bit pricey now and I await indications as to how well their electric models are selling in this quarter and next. I'll still probably buy more but now I view it more than ever as a safe haven rather than a speculative play.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    haphaphap wrote: »
    This is not a Tesla or NIO. It isn't a retail investor playground. Despite the enviable position VAG finds itself in growth will be modest and share price will always be pegged to the profits they make and dividends they pay. I bought in after the diesel scandal and have been picking up shares regularly ever since then. It is getting a bit pricey now and I await indications as to how well their electric models are selling in this quarter and next. I'll still probably buy more but now I view it more than ever as a safe haven rather than a speculative play.

    idk, I think the market is moving away from risk towards stocks with solid fundamentals. "safe havens" might not be a bad place over the next while.
    VW have really gone all in on EV at the moment, just look at the amount of TV advertising now. I think 2021 is going to be a great year for them.
    They've just announced the self driving Taxi, I think this is big news, but still a few years away.
    Chip shortage is a problem, but it's one they've been getting a handle on since last April.
    The SP seemed to find a floor at €1.60 lately, it may test it again if they get any setbacks but that would be a good entry point for anyone looking for a margin of safety.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    UBS had a report out during the week with a price target of 300.


    Question on how to trade this vs Porsche shares.


  • Registered Users Posts: 689 ✭✭✭ jams100


    What is the difference between ticker VOW & VOW3?

    I'm presuming something to do with voting and possible higher dividend but this isn't very clear. Anyone know?
    Seems like an attractive and safe dividend either way


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    VOW3 are preferential shares with no voting rights. The VOW shares are the common stock and trade higher. The reason I choose VOW3 was it was at a discount compared to VOW when I started then thread, in the past they have traded higher but not usually, they usually trade lower but in general they trade in sync. If I was to choose again today looking at the price difference I would again be going with VOW3 as it seems to have a bit to catch up to VOW plus you get a higher dividend (which is why they are lower now as the dividend was cut after the emissions scandal)
    btw Googles Ordinary and preferred shares trade at only a 5% discount


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    VOW3 are preferential shares with no voting rights. The VOW shares are the common stock and trade higher. The reason I choose VOW3 was it was at a discount compared to VOW when I started then thread, in the past they have traded higher but not usually, they usually trade lower but in general they trade in sync. If I was to choose again today looking at the price difference I would again be going with VOW3 as it seems to have a bit to catch up to VOW plus you get a higher dividend (which is why they are lower now as the dividend was cut after the emissions scandal)
    btw Googles Ordinary and preferred shares trade at only a 5% discount

    I just picked the one that trades in higher volumes ie. More liquid...and thats VOW3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,987 ✭✭✭ haphaphap


    This share has got expensive in the last few weeks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    haphaphap wrote: »
    This share has got expensive in the last few weeks.

    Up 29% today

    29%


    VOW3 isn't though. Any reason why this line is only up ~6%


    Like I've only made 25% on my investment...I blame the OP for dodgy investment advise :D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭ littlevillage


    VOW +16%
    VOW3 +7%

    Today.

    Might be down to liquidity...ie. poor liquidity, bigger spread.

    Regardless, its a bloody good day....brokers have VOW3 targets at €250.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭ Chuckie_Egg


    It's going well, VOW3 will follow, it just moves a bit off the pace. VOW3 will eventually come into it's own once the dividends increase at which stage the two tickers will flip. After that it'll be up to you to hold for the dividends or cash in.
    Till then keep the faith!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,987 ✭✭✭ haphaphap


    I've been buying this share constantly each month. I intended to put about €13k euro in to it in two weeks from now but it is just so expensive now for what will always be a low margin industry. I have no intention of selling ATM.


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