Villa05 wrote: » Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger. I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7. It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor. This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one
Marius34 wrote: » Ok, I understand your point if you mean you are move out of Dublin city center. Otherwise, if its regarding the price, I don't see what has changed in regards in City center apartments.
Smouse156 wrote: » Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin! One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy
Timing belt wrote: So another 5 years till you think the bubble (you believe is there) will pop.
DataDude wrote: » This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth: I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions. Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc. I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k. So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!
Hubertj wrote: » Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.
Idbatterim wrote: » from irish times below, there was already a lack of supply, covid has put another serious dent in it. Jesus the situation is going to be total carnage. At this point, they need to stop new hotel, retail etc, commercial being built, that isnt already under construction in my opinion and divert all resources to residential AND perhaps start rezoning commercial as residential. If this was done in good central areas, the older commercial stuff, might be replaced by residential. "The Central Bank said it expected new home completions to be in the region of 18,500 in 2020, rising to 21,500-23,500 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is 23,000 less than it had predicted prior to the pandemic."https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/up-to-23-000-fewer-homes-to-be-built-because-of-covid-19-central-bank-warns-1.4464673
Robalees wrote: » In dublin I see a lot of empty houses there's about 200 within a mile of me. They are not for sale or rent I wonder how many houses in dublin are empty.
schmittel wrote: » Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact. I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact. All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!
PommieBast wrote: » What amazes me is the number of properties that are so derelict they are practically being held intact by plant growth.
Hubertj wrote: » You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k! Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?
DataDude wrote: » Completely agree re. It being self reinforcing - every viewing we went in to in SCD after visiting our friends house in Wicklow became a bitter disappointment against our new point of comparison. Looking forward to your house coming on sale - there is a serious lack of them at the moment!
schmittel wrote: » Brought up in North Wicklow, left Ireland after college, missed all the excitement of the boom years, moved back to Ireland in 2012 and been living here since then. There's definitely a risk of overdevelopment, but no more than anywhere else. In the case of Greystones I think it is a well identified enough risk that it will be managed well. Definitely no shortage of amenities/infrastructure. It's definitely overdeveloped in terms of coffee shops, but presumably that will correct itself in time! Interestingly I read recently that Charlesland golf course has shut for good, so no doubt all that land will be developed. I suspect it will be earmarked to futureproof amenities and infrastructure as well as housing. They could make something very special as a seaside recreational space there too. What is very noticeable is that it is a young town. A lot of young families/young children which is a nice vibe if you're at that stage of life yourself. This is why I have posted a few times about who is going to buy the semi ds in Goatstown etc. If young buyers - i.e current generation - are turning their back on them in favour of places like Greystones, they are going to stay in these places. Can guarantee you nobody who is living here is thinking I cannot wait until I can afford to trade up to a semi d in Goatstown/Booterstown/Dundrum wherever. The longer current prices are maintained/rise, the more towns like Greystones get traction, and people get settled, and the less inclined they are to leave. So it is left to future cohorts of FTBers/trader uppers - but at current prices where is that market going to come from?
Hubertj wrote: » It is nice, my friends moved down 2 years ago to try it out and have recently bought. They like the atmosphere, reasons for moving were lifestyle and not affordability. Only concern would be having too much confidence in planners to manage it properly.... will infrastructure - schools, transport etc - keep up with demand? Especially when Starbucks opens, there will be a stampede out of Dublin.
Hubertj wrote: » I think affordability, although very important, shouldn’t be the sole determining factor when looking for somewhere to live.
schmittel wrote: » <SNIP>Dublin is riddled with vacancies and the number is rising. Bit odd, as it is not what you'd expect in a housing crisis, but there you go.
Marius34 wrote: » Your Census reported decrease of vacancy between 2016 and 2011. There was no update since 2016 as far as I know.
Reins wrote: » Paragraph from the Irish times that Idbatterim linked " Mr Cassidy said both factors were likely to place upward pressure on house prices. “We already have a shortage of housing, so this is exacerbating a pre-existing problem,” he said. However, he said there were offsetting factors, which could work in the opposite direction, such as unemployment and the uncertainty around future income, which would make it more difficult for buyers to secure a mortgage. Typically demand for housing falls when unemployment rises. " Going forward do posters see a liklihood of mortgages being harder to secure?
schmittel wrote: » It’s your census too. Geodirectory reporting rising vacancy numbers in Dublin.
Marius34 wrote: » Last time you wasn't happy with Geodirectory number, thus you had a need to recalculate it to fit your purpose. 1.3% vacancy, is not massive vacancy by any measures.
Vacancy rates The average vacancy rate across the State was 4.5% in June 2020, down 0.3 ppts from the corresponding rate in June 2019. • In 25 of the 26 counties, residential vacancy rates declined in the 12 months to June 2020. Dublin was the exception, where vacancy rates rose marginally by 0.1 ppts. • Despite the increase, Dublin continued to have the lowest vacancy rates in the State at 1.3%, followed by Kildare (2.0%) and Wicklow (2.9%). All three Counties are within the Greater Dublin Area. • Leitrim recorded the highest vacancy rate at 14.6%, although it declined by 0.6ppts year-on-year. After Leitrim, Roscommon (12.6%) and Mayo (12.5%) recorded the next highest vacancy rates. All three counties are in Connacht, the province which had the highest vacancy rates (9.6%) in June 2020. • Leinster continues to have the lowest average vacancy rate at 2.3%. Just two of the 14 counties that recorded vacancy rates above the national average were in Leinster. *Vacant addresses as a proportion of total residential stock, excluding buildings under construction Source: https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE
