2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

JimmyVik

awec wrote: »

If we are going anecdotal, I can say that our company, a large employer, has explicitly ruled out any remote work outside of Ireland.

I have had a team member have to quit because they wanted to move home to France for some family reasons and were outright refused. HR were willing to accommodate for a very short term temporary arrangement, but not permanent.

This is the norm. Our future hiring policies remain unchanged.

Our company hired 11 people in the last few months.
All are allowed to work remotley, but have been told that that is not an option for them once the company can go back to normal work practices. We are all, including new hires, expected back into the office as soon as it is possible.

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

do you have an office in the UK? and if you do are the people working from the UK employee of the irish of the UK operation?

Yes we do, but using UK employees for the Dublin HQ is a little different to before, but as Awec was saying its only anecdotal, our place is tiny relatively

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Our company hired 11 people in the last few months.
All are allowed to work remotley, but have been told that that is not an option for them once the company can go back to normal work practices. We are all, including new hires, expected back into the office as soon as it is possible.

But would telling employees that they must return to the office once the lockdown ends be more to do with not raising the expectations of staff until management fully understand what they will do post-covid.


For example, Google initially stated that everyone would have to return to the office post-covid (originally July this year), but then changed tack last month and pushed back its return to the office until September 2021, and also added that they will experiment with a hybrid model allowing some employees to work from home part of the week.


It's a constantly moving situation at the moment until management fully understand what they will do post-covid and won't want to raise any employee expectations until their final decisions are made IMO


I would guess that any company whose lease is expiring or up for renewal in the next 24 months would be more inclined to move more employees to WFH post-covid than similar companies with say a 5 year lease left. They are the companies to watch IMO on the future direction of WFH.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

But would telling employees that they must return to the office once the lockdown ends be more to do with not raising the expectations of staff until management fully understand what they will do post-covid.

sure, makes much more sense to imagine what they might have meant rather than taking what they said at face value.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

But would telling employees that they must return to the office once the lockdown ends be more to do with not raising the expectations of staff until management fully understand what they will do post-covid.


For example, Google initially stated that everyone would have to return to the office post-covid (originally July this year), but then changed tack last month and pushed back its return to the office until September 2021, and also added that they will experiment with a hybrid model allowing some employees to work from home part of the week.


It's a constantly moving situation at the moment until management fully understand what they will do post-covid and won't want to raise any employee expectations until their final decisions are made IMO


I would guess that any company whose lease is expiring or up for renewal in the next 24 months would be more inclined to move more employees to WFH post-covid than similar companies with say a 5 year lease left. They are the companies to watch IMO on the future direction of WFH.

No. Theyve made it perfectly clear we are all expected to work from the office when covid is over. They were about to bring us all back before,but another lockdown happened and scuppered their plans.

As it happens the lease on one of our floors was up in December.
They have renewed, but at a cheaper price than the last lease. I think they are getting the first 6 months free basically.

MacronvFrugals

I think a more hybrid model will emerge, with the commuter belt around Dublin becoming much more attractive

Unilever workers will never return to desks full-time, says boss

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/13/unilever-workers-will-never-return-to-desks-full-time-says-boss

Villa05

awec wrote:

They may want to, but they cannot. People should stop talking like this is some temporary thing, or that it's going to change. It is not. Remote work is going to increase but workers will have to stay in Ireland.

10 months ago wfh was been written off by alot of posters.
New practices evolve

JimmyVik wrote:

As it happens the lease on one of our floors was up in December. They have renewed, but at a cheaper price than the last lease. I think they are getting the first 6 months free basically.

Does anyone know if commercial property owners are being compensated by the state for losses attributable to covid

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

sure, makes much more sense to imagine what they might have meant rather than taking what they said at face value.

Just like taking majority of the experts statements on the future of the Irish housing market in Ireland in 2006 at face value?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just like taking majority of the experts statements on the future of the Irish housing market in Ireland in 2006 at face value?

Yes, thats exactly the same, comparing the opinions of commentators on an asset class to what a management team tells its employees about their working conditions.

your ability to conflate utterly seperate concepts is astounding, the break doesnt appear to have done you any good.

Browney7

Villa05 wrote: »

10 months ago wfh was been written off by alot of posters.
New practices evolve




Does anyone know if commercial property owners are being compensated by the state for losses attributable to covid

By the back door potentially - wage subsidy scheme pays staff wages which allows any income afterwards to be used for rent.

Can see a Mexican standoff after things settle down where businesses won't be able to pay the pre Covid rent and the commercial landlord may threaten to refuse to budge on rent and shut it down so then the business goes cap in hand to government that "they're a viable business being shut down". If they are shutdown gov lose tax and have to pay welfare etc. Commercial LL realistically won't relet the property for the pre Covid rent to a new tenant then. I'd expect commercial property will eat some of the Covid losses but the taxpayer will invariably foot a lot of it rightly or wrongly.

I'm personally dubious about the WFH prospects - too much money at stake with people at home all the time. Loss of people paying into gov coffers with transport costs to cities, vat on purchases and food in the city (resultant jobs created by that), taxation revenue on commercial rents (indeed financial institutions and pension funds who own large office and commercial developments may be in several ears in government circles worldwide). If there are less people walking up Grafton st or Henry st (or Oxford st, fifth avenue, champs Elysées etc) it stands to reason rents and property values will drop.

Or else governments rate people's "home office's" which is payable by employers.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think a more hybrid model will emerge, with the commuter belt around Dublin becoming much more attractive

Unilever workers will never return to desks full-time, says boss

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/13/unilever-workers-will-never-return-to-desks-full-time-says-boss

I think there will be a lot of to-and-fro over the next several months between managers who want to return to the office (no matter what and for personal reasons etc.) and other managers who will be looking at the potential cost savings etc. going forward.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Yes, thats exactly the same, comparing the opinions of commentators on an asset class to what a management team tells its employees about their working conditions.

your ability to conflate utterly seperate concepts is astounding, the break doesnt appear to have done you any good.

I don't think it was "commentators" last time. I think we all remember Bertie's quote.

PropQueries

Browney7 wrote: »

By the back door potentially - wage subsidy scheme pays staff wages which allows any income afterwards to be used for rent.

Can see a Mexican standoff after things settle down where businesses won't be able to pay the pre Covid rent and the commercial landlord may threaten to refuse to budge on rent and shut it down so then the business goes cap in hand to government that "they're a viable business being shut down". If they are shutdown gov lose tax and have to pay welfare etc. Commercial LL realistically won't relet the property for the pre Covid rent to a new tenant then. I'd expect commercial property will eat some of the Covid losses but the taxpayer will invariably foot a lot of it rightly or wrongly.

I'm personally dubious about the WFH prospects - too much money at stake with people at home all the time. Loss of people paying into gov coffers with transport costs to cities, vat on purchases and food in the city (resultant jobs created by that), taxation revenue on commercial rents (indeed financial institutions and pension funds who own large office and commercial developments may be in several ears in government circles worldwide). If there are less people walking up Grafton st or Henry st (or Oxford st, fifth avenue, champs Elysées etc) it stands to reason rents and property values will drop.

Or else governments rate people's "home office's" which is payable by employers.

I think this will be out of the governments hands from now on. Many of the big multinationals, from Google to Unilever have already embraced the hybrid model of WFH. And it's only several months in. Another several months and they may decide to go the whole way in relation to permanent WFH for the majority of their staff.


I don't believe listening to lower down managers is the best gauge and it may be better to watch what the big public companies are doing as the smaller companies will definitely start following their lead no matter what they're telling their staff at the moment IMO.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

I think there will be a lot of to-and-fro over the next several months between managers who want to return to the office (no matter what and for personal reasons etc.) and other managers who will be looking at the potential cost savings etc. going forward.

Agreed, senior managers were shocked in our place when productivity increased during Covid so much that they requested 1/4 of middle managers be diverted to new roles within the company.

You're darn right they're sweating to go back to the office!

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think it was "commentators" last time. I think we all remember Bertie's quote.

you are calling bertie an expert then?

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe listening to lower down managers is the best gauge and it may be better to watch what the big public companies are doing as the smaller companies will definitely start following their lead no matter what they're telling their staff at the moment IMO.

I suspect middle and lower management actively fear permanent WFH, so they will pour cold water on the idea at every opportunity.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Agreed, senior managers were shocked in our place when productivity increased during Covid so much that they requested 1/4 of middle managers be diverted to new roles within the company.

You're darn right they're sweating to go back to the office!

There have been lots of predictions over the past few years that middle managers are next in line after the workers whose jobs were shipped off to China etc. over the past 30 years in the states.



If a computer program can monitor employee productivity, it will raise questions at the upper levels on the amount of middle managers they require.

Not good for either the employees or the middle managers IMO as employees are not robots but it does appear that's the way it's heading and a lot faster than was predicted pre-covid.

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

you are calling bertie an expert then?

I remember reading in FOTs 'Ship of Fools' that Bertie was giving some talk to Ecuadorian officials on the miracle of the Celtic Tiger and how they can replicate it while simultaneously the house of cards was collapsing outside

hometruths

PommieBast wrote: »

I suspect middle and lower management actively fear permanent WFH, so they will pour cold water on the idea at every opportunity.

I suspect you might be right, but what senior management and the accountants think will be what counts.

yaknowski

PropQueries wrote: »

If a computer program can monitor employee productivity, it will raise questions at the upper levels on the amount of middle managers they require.

Hopefully AI can reduce the amount of unnecessary meetings managers fill their and our calendars with!

Cluedo Monopoly

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Agreed, senior managers were shocked in our place when productivity increased during Covid so much that they requested 1/4 of middle managers be diverted to new roles within the company.

You're darn right they're sweating to go back to the office!

We saw increased productivity too. I've just learned that our company is halving our office space and doing a hot desk program when Covid ends. Nobody has to go into the office during 2021 if they so wish. I am going to apply for a 4 day week I.e. 1 day in office.

PropQueries

There was an interesting article in the SBP a few weeks ago:


"Michael Cotter, one of Ireland’s biggest developers, wants to downsize more than a dozen of the larger homes in his Clay Farm project to create more affordable units, as the builder predicts uncertainty in the market.

Viscount Securities, a subsidiary of Cotter’s Park Developments, is currently developing phase one of its 933-home residential project in Ballyogan, Dublin 18. Phase two of the development is to include 350 of the homes."


So much for the supposed high demand for large houses in South Dublin.



Link to article in SBP here: https://www.businesspost.ie/news/developer-cotter-downsizes-ambitions-for-ballyogan-project-bf0976f9

Hubertj

With Amsterdam looking like it will ban tourists from coffee shops Ireland should pass legislation and become the weed/THC/CBD capital of Europe / the world. Imagine the boost to retail and commercial / industrial units plus the boost to tourism industry. New FDI, new streams of tax revenue, increased immigration. Wonderful opportunity. As likely to happen as some of the other suggestions put forward this week.

Hubertj

On the rental front I see people moving into Michael O’Leary’s gaff on Elgin Road. €15k per month. Not too bad

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Forced? never said that. But if an employee is WFH permanently in Ireland and is currently living in Letterkenny and the office is based in Dublin, how long before someone takes a case (at EU level) that there is no difference in that person working remotely from e.g. Portugal to working in Letterkenny and companies are then not allowed to discriminate based on the location (within the EU) of where a person decides to remotely work from?

Eastern EU countries have had a big problem over the past number of years with their younger workers moving to western EU countries for work. If they can reverse this trend and they would now appear to have the opportunity, do you not think they will take it?

You are taking rubbish as there is no breach of EU law. A new treaty would be required to introduce standard taxes across all eu states. And even then you have to consider that no_one has brought a case arguing that company A pays more in Dublin than Galway etc.

Maybe stick to facts instead of far fetched spin

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the SBP a few weeks ago:


"Michael Cotter, one of Ireland’s biggest developers, wants to downsize more than a dozen of the larger homes in his Clay Farm project to create more affordable units, as the builder predicts uncertainty in the market.

Viscount Securities, a subsidiary of Cotter’s Park Developments, is currently developing phase one of its 933-home residential project in Ballyogan, Dublin 18. Phase two of the development is to include 350 of the homes."


So much for the supposed high demand for large houses in South Dublin.



Link to article in SBP here: https://www.businesspost.ie/news/developer-cotter-downsizes-ambitions-for-ballyogan-project-bf0976f9

Clay farm and the ballyogan road isn’t a bell weather for large houses in socodu I’m sorry to tell you.

JimmyVik

When Covid has been gone for a year, lets see how the work from home thing goes.
I suspect when covid is gone everything will be back to the old ways quick smart

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

There have been lots of predictions over the past few years that middle managers are next in line after the workers whose jobs were shipped off to China etc. over the past 30 years in the states.



If a computer program can monitor employee productivity, it will raise questions at the upper levels on the amount of middle managers they require.

Not good for either the employees or the middle managers IMO as employees are not robots but it does appear that's the way it's heading and a lot faster than was predicted pre-covid.

It certainly is the way its heading and its highly dystopian in my opinion the level of monitoring on some software suites, even basic Office 365 has many data points for management to observe.

Sure look at the Amazon reviews on Glassdoor, it mimics a mini Soviet Union

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

You are taking rubbish as there is no breach of EU law. A new treaty would be required to introduce standard taxes across all eu states. And even then you have to consider that no_one has brought a case arguing that company A pays more in Dublin than Galway etc.

Maybe stick to facts instead of far fetched spin

Never mentioned anything about taxes. Was mentioning that if a job is WFH permanently, it won’t be long before a person in e.g. Portugal takes a case that they can’t be refused a job based upon whether they live in Letterkenny or Lisbon.

Discrimination based on location in he EU may soon be considered the same as denying a job to someone based on their age.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Never mentioned anything about taxes. Was mentioning that if a job is WFH permanently, it won’t be long before a person in e.g. Portugal takes a case that they can’t be refused a job based upon whether they live in Letterkenny or Lisbon.

Discrimination based on location in he EU may soon be considered the same as denying a job to someone based on their age.

Sorry but this is grade A nonsense.