2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder how this would play out under EU law? Can an Irish company really force someone to live in Ireland if they're WFH permanently? Especially since Ireland is only a 2 to 4 hour Ryanair plane ride away from most other EU countries. Not much more commuting time, in many cases, than commuting from Galway to Dublin for an important meeting etc.?



With our government worried about the impact of the upcoming OECD tax reforms on our future corporation taxes, maybe they should be more worried about the future income tax competition from the Mediterranean countries who are already trying to lure remote workers with tax breaks etc.


Given how reliant we are on our relatively high income taxes and will be on future carbon taxes, property taxes etc., this could cause more problems than anything the OECD tax reforms throw at us over the next two years.


Link to CNBC article on Greece income tax breaks for remote workers here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/greece-to-cut-taxes-for-remote-workers-in-post-covid-recovery-effort.html

do you read the articles you post?

We are targeting companies that want to open offices in Greece due to Brexit, Greeks abroad who want to return to Greece, digital migrants or tech companies; anybody or any company that wants to open (an) office in Greece

thats not an other tech worker who works for google ireland decided to move to athens for a year, its to incentivise co's to set up a base there, a permanent establishment.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Skype is here over 10 years ,internet even longer. Poeple have been able to go through mortgage approvals online for 8/9 years now at least if not longer. I cant see a reason why suddenly in 2020 why the jump to 4/5 approvals per person would be true. You have absolutely no evidence of it so unless you do please stop using your thinking to be truth.

And that's why I initially asked "I think it would be interesting if the data was there to look at"


But based on how easy and less intimidating the banks make applying for approval these days and especially during the pandemic (e.g. no face to face meetings), it's a reasonable assumption that once someone applies for and gets approval from one bank, they're more inclined to apply to several others after giving how easy it was the first time?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

do you read the articles you post?



thats not an other tech worker who works for google ireland decided to move to athens for a year, its to incentivise co's to set up a base there, a permanent establishment.

And that's why I stated that the laws and regulations on WFH are only being looked into and acted upon now.


It won't be long before the eastern EU countries see their competitive advantage here and start using it by forcing through EU regulations on the matter IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

But based on how easy and less intimidating the banks make applying for approval these days and especially during the pandemic (e.g. no face to face meetings)

again you are guessing, plenty of banks gave out AIP without face to face meetings, because AIP is not a mortgage offer.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

And that's why I stated that the laws and regulations on WFH are only being looked into and acted upon now.


It won't be long before the eastern EU countries see their competitive advantage here and start using it by forcing through EU regulations on the matter IMO

Eastern EU countries will be setting the tax agenda will they? i look forward to seeing how that plays out.

And see the irish flocking to poland and Hungary. Leaving ballsbridge a barren wasteland of cheap property,

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

again you are guessing, plenty of banks gave out AIP without face to face meetings, because AIP is not a mortgage offer.

So all mortgage approvals still require a face to face meeting during the Pandemic? So, no mortgage approvals are going to be issued in January 2021?


So, when the the statistics for mortgage approvals for January are published, they should state "0"?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

And that's why I initially asked "I think it would be interesting if the data was there to look at"


But based on how easy and less intimidating the banks make applying for approval these days and especially during the pandemic (e.g. no face to face meetings), it's a reasonable assumption that once someone applies for and gets approval from one bank, they're more inclined to apply to several others after giving how easy it was the first time?

I could be wrong but I do believe you still have to deal with the big bad bank if you want the mortgage at some stage of the process the bank want to see the white of your eyes and meet you personally.

It is not a reasonable assumption that when all the same mechanisms you outline for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 that all of a sudden people will in 2020 start doubling up on going to different banks for mortgage approval. Your completely waffling now and trying to make a stat out of something that you have no proof for. Banks had changed their game for years now trying to fit in with other peoples working life as in offering online communication and AIP online was here way before covid.

Ok let me ask you another have you proof of this if not than stop talking rubbish

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

No. I'm saying that the Mediterranean and eastern EU countries have a lot to gain by forcing through EU laws to allow remote workers to work from anywhere they wish in the EU if they're WFH permanently.


We can't compete with their low living costs due to our legacy problems e.g. pension promises, housing costs etc.


They know they can outcompete Ireland at every level and it would be in their interest to ensure this is enshrined in EU law.


In the Irish Times today, the new Irish laws will "give employees in the State the option to permanently work from home". We're already starting to update our laws so it's only a small extra step to what I'm suggesting will most likely happen.

Please stop posting nonsense on this topic. This is your MO PropQueries, find something and then start making tenuous suggestions as to how this is going to lead to doom.

Irish people will be allowed to request to work from home, and in the space of a few posts you have now extrapolated out how this means the eastern EU countries are going to make sure that anyone can work from anywhere.

PropQueries wrote: »

And that's why I stated that the laws and regulations on WFH are only being looked into and acted upon now.


It won't be long before the eastern EU countries see their competitive advantage here and start using it by forcing through EU regulations on the matter IMO

Under what basis do you think eastern EU countries would be able to force through such measures?

What sort of law do you think could be passed to force an Irish company to hire someone in Romania?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Eastern EU countries will be setting the tax agenda will they? i look forward to seeing how that plays out.

And see the irish flocking to poland and Hungary. Leaving ballsbridge a barren wasteland of cheap property,

I think there's many more countries in eastern EU than Poland or Hungary. Most also have both proper summers and proper winters. Most have much lower costs of living, much much much (yes 3 times much ) better healthcare etc.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

What sort of law do you think could be passed to force an Irish company to hire someone in Romania?

Forced? never said that. But if an employee is WFH permanently in Ireland and is currently living in Letterkenny and the office is based in Dublin, how long before someone takes a case (at EU level) that there is no difference in that person working remotely from e.g. Portugal to working in Letterkenny and companies are then not allowed to discriminate based on the location (within the EU) of where a person decides to remotely work from?

Eastern EU countries have had a big problem over the past number of years with their younger workers moving to western EU countries for work. If they can reverse this trend and they would now appear to have the opportunity, do you not think they will take it?

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Skype is here over 10 years ,internet even longer. Poeple have been able to go through mortgage approvals online for 8/9 years now at least if not longer. I cant see a reason why suddenly in 2020 why the jump to 4/5 approvals per person would be true. You have absolutely no evidence of it so unless you do please stop using your thinking to be truth.

AIP is different to firm approval. BPFI report approvals to buy a specific property - this is the actual firm approval that the bank will give for six months or a year or whatever. This is where you give the bank bank statements, salary statements etc.

When I was getting approval in order with BOI pre the pandemic I picked a property off daft as my "property" which I had no intention to buy but was more to trigger the letter that I had €x approved which happened to be my max amount. Had to meet the advisor for coffee first to get the forms off him and to get the sales pitch which I knew anyway as I made the decision to go with BOI based on cashback offer. I didn't want hassle or having to meet an AIB or KBC or other bank to sit through that crap again of the initial face to face so just got firm approval from one bank.

If you look at the BPFi stats, 4300 or so firm approvals were issued in November 20. No idea how many people apply for more than one but let's assume 50% apply for one and 50% apply for 2. So 3200 unique people.

In November 21, 5200 approvals were issued. If it's still 50% one approval and 50% 2 approvals you have 3900 unique approvals. If your split has moved to 40% one approval and 60% 2 approvals your number of unique approvals is now 3250. These figures ignore FTB or switcher behaviours differing and is an illustrative example.

You're entitled to your opinion that the number of unique approvals issued is consistent with pre Covid as is props entitled to question whether it may have changed based on the approval model banks now have in a unique environment. The aggressiveness on this forum has dialled up a notch it seems

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Forced? never said that. But if an employee is WFH permanently in Ireland and is currently living in Letterkenny and the office is based in Dublin, how long before someone takes a case (at EU level) that there is no difference in that person working remotely from e.g. Portugal to working in Letterkenny and companies are then not allowed to discriminate based on the location (within the EU) of where a person decides to remotely work from?

There is a difference. Again, I think you know this since you've beaten this drum 4 or 5 times for a variety of different reasons in the past number of months.

On what basis do you think such a case would be presented?

hometruths

odyssey06 wrote: »

I only post about Pina Coladas on the appropriate thread, so not sure where this ridiculous strawman you present came from.

Tech companies have staff hired in from other EU countries, in large numbers.
You think they don't want to WFH too, where home is their home country?
Some of them were already doing so on the QT during the pandemic.

I was being facetious rather than presenting a strawman.

The impact of people working for a company in Ireland living in another country will be minimal compared to people working for a company in Dublin and living in Wexford etc.

It gets up my nose a bit that all discussions on WFH (which I think is fascinating and will have huge impact on the market here) get drawn into whether or not it will be legal to live in another country.

People living abroad will be irrelevant compared to the shift within Ireland.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

There is a difference. Again, I think you know this since you've beaten this drum 4 or 5 times for a variety of different reasons in the past number of months.

On what basis do you think such a case would be presented?

If everyone knew how cases would be presented and what the decision would be in advance, we wouldn't need an EU court or any court for that matter.



But, I believe it's fair to assume that the eastern EU countries are looking at this opportunity and won't let it pass or they will be looking at another few decades of their younger workers moving to and benefiting the economies of western EU countries over their own.

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

AIP is different to firm approval. BPFI report approvals to buy a specific property - this is the actual firm approval that the bank will give for six months or a year or whatever. This is where you give the bank bank statements, salary statements etc.

When I was getting approval in order with BOI pre the pandemic I picked a property off daft as my "property" which I had no intention to buy but was more to trigger the letter that I had €x approved which happened to be my max amount. Had to meet the advisor for coffee first to get the forms off him and to get the sales pitch which I knew anyway as I made the decision to go with BOI based on cashback offer. I didn't want hassle or having to meet an AIB or KBC or other bank to sit through that crap again of the initial face to face so just got firm approval from one bank.

If you look at the BPFi stats, 4300 or so firm approvals were issued in November 20. No idea how many people apply for more than one but let's assume 50% apply for one and 50% apply for 2. So 3200 unique people.

In November 21, 5200 approvals were issued. If it's still 50% one approval and 50% 2 approvals you have 3900 unique approvals. If your split has moved to 40% one approval and 60% 2 approvals your number of unique approvals is now 3250. These figures ignore FTB or switcher behaviours differing and is an illustrative example.

You're entitled to your opinion that the number of unique approvals issued is consistent with pre Covid as is props entitled to question whether it may have changed based on the approval model banks now have in a unique environment. The aggressiveness on this forum has dialed up a notch it seems

Can you not see the amount of crap he/she has spouted on here over the last year. I have said to him no one has the correct info for this and Props keeping putting these phantom scenarios out there that he has not got a lick of proof for. Its like me saying there was an object in the sky there when JFK got killed therefore it is an obvious assumption that martians killed JFK ..He is bringing the level of debate down. By all means if he has links to data or to what other experts say then great lets see it but by going off on the tangents he has been going off he is trying to swing the debate in favor of what he believes is true. He is using his opinion and extrapolating fact that he has absolutely no proof for.

awec

odyssey06 wrote: »

I only post about Pina Coladas on the appropriate thread, so not sure where this ridiculous strawman you present came from.

Tech companies have staff hired in from other EU countries, in large numbers.
You think they don't want to WFH too, where home is their home country?
Some of them were already doing so on the QT during the pandemic.

They may want to, but they cannot. People should stop talking like this is some temporary thing, or that it's going to change. It is not. Remote work is going to increase but workers will have to stay in Ireland.

This topic keeps coming up because I guess it's a nice soundbite to make it sound like Ireland is on the brink of losing all it's MNC jobs.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

If everyone knew how cases would be presented and what the decision would be in advance, we wouldn't need an EU court or any court for that matter.



But, I believe it's fair to assume that the eastern EU countries are looking at this opportunity and won't let it pass or they will be looking at another few decades of their younger workers moving to and benefiting the economies of western EU countries over their own.

Why do you think it's fair to assume this? Since your presenting this as something likely to happen, I would have thought you'd have good reasons why and on what basis such a thing would likely come to fruition.

I would particularly be curious to understand what your thinking is regarding how eastern european nations would have the power to force through such a measure and how the western european nations would be powerless to stop such a measure.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

They may want to, but they cannot. People should stop talking like this is some temporary thing, or that it's going to change. It is not. Remote work is going to increase but workers will have to stay in Ireland.

This topic keeps coming up because I guess it's a nice soundbite to make it sound like Ireland is on the brink of losing all it's MNC jobs.

This sort of thing is far more like to cost us MNC jobs than WFH:

UNILATERAL MOVES BY countries like France to tax technology companies create “clear and present” economic threats for Ireland, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has said.

https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-corporation-tax-5324819-Jan2021/

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Why do you think it's fair to assume this? Since your presenting this as something likely to happen, I would have thought you'd have good reasons why and on what basis such a thing would likely come to fruition.

Has he ever backed his opinion with fact. Props can you try and start justifying your arguments pal. Its getting pretty frustrating proving you wrong and then you blanking the fact that your wrong and you going off on a different tangent only to come back a week or w later with the same argument as before.

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not sure that workers who are allowed to WFH permanently would be in such a work environment that they are required to attend the office with 4 hours notice. They may be told on Monday that they need to be in the office on Thursday. Plenty of time to book a Ryanair flight and be there in time for such meetings. And probably not costing much more than driving from Letterkenny to Dublin.

All depends on your role.

There's a lot of civil service roles that could have you need to attend a meeting at the drop of a hat, or to attend to something topical that's blowing up in the media.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

This sort of thing is far more like to cost us MNC jobs than WFH:

The tax thing has a much greater chance of reducing future direct investment, yes.

But of course, tax reform does not mean Ireland is doomed. Tax is part of the reason companies set up here but it's not the only one.

PommieBast

Browney7 wrote: »

No insurance product exists in the market to cover non payment of rent. Nothing to stop landlords getting creative and creating a mutual scheme amongst themselves if there was appetite for it

Over in the UK I have seen such insurance advertised, but I guess that is because judges are not allowed to account for sob stories.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

This sort of thing is far more like to cost us MNC jobs than WFH:



https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-corporation-tax-5324819-Jan2021/

It’s the uncertainty it brings. France is trying to move things along with threats of unilateral action. France has significant challenges in reforming employment law as well which impacts their ability to attract FDI (English/ non french language challenges apart)

whiskeyman

I noted in other thread viewings are now online only until end of the month at least.
Around 4 properties I've looked at recently in Dublin went well over 10% above asking ... and that asking was in all times inflated already.
There's likely to be further buyers coming into market with more exceptions over coming weeks and the stock just isn't coming on. Second hand market is crazy.

MacronvFrugals

Our company hired 12 people in the last 2 months, 8 are working remotely from the UK and 4 in Dublin.

This would not have happened prior to Covid for us specifically as all would've had to be in the commuter belt of Dublin, just anecdotal but interesting nonetheless

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Has he ever backed his opinion with fact. Props can you try and start justifying your arguments pal. Its getting pretty frustrating proving you wrong and then you blanking the fact that your wrong and you going off on a different tangent only to come back a week or w later with the same argument as before.

Well if I was a big property developer and I looked at the mortgage approval statistics for November 2020 and they showed e.g. 3,000 were approved for a mortgage of e.g. c. €250k each, I would like to know is that 3,000 unique potential purchasers with mortgage approval or is it c. 1,000 unique people who have been approved but by three separate institutions.


It matters in the sense, will I build 500 houses or 1,500 houses in 2021? If I don't question it or seek clarification, it would be the difference in me building too much with no demand and going bust or building the right amount and making a much bigger profit.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

So all mortgage approvals still require a face to face meeting during the Pandemic? So, no mortgage approvals are going to be issued in January 2021?


So, when the the statistics for mortgage approvals for January are published, they should state "0"?

i have no idea where you are getting that from, what i said was AIP didnt require face to face meetings before the pandemic

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Has he ever backed his opinion with fact. Props can you try and start justifying your arguments pal. Its getting pretty frustrating proving you wrong and then you blanking the fact that your wrong and you going off on a different tangent only to come back a week or w later with the same argument as before.

to think people were lamenting his absence from the thread, we are back on the same merry go round of fabricated doomsday scenarios :rolleyes:

Browney7

PropQueries wrote: »

Well if I was a big property developer and I looked at the mortgage approval statistics for November 2020 and they showed e.g. 3,000 were approved for a mortgage of e.g. c. €250k each, I would like to know is that 3,000 unique potential purchasers with mortgage approval or is it c. 1,000 unique people who have been approved but by three separate institutions.


It matters in the sense, will I build 500 houses or 1,500 houses in 2021? If I don't question it or seek clarification, it would be the difference in me building too much with no demand and going bust or building the right amount and making a much bigger profit.

Looking at the numbers, just over 4 out of 5 FTB approvals convert to drawdown (84%). 116k approvals for FTB from Q1 15 to Q3 20 and 98k drawdown. I've assumed people approved before Q1 2015 and who subsequently drew down in q1 15 offsets people approved at end Q3 20 who will drawdown in q4 20.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well if I was a big property developer and I looked at the mortgage approval statistics for November 2020 and they showed e.g. 3,000 were approved for a mortgage of e.g. c. €250k each, I would like to know is that 3,000 unique potential purchasers with mortgage approval or is it c. 1,000 unique people who have been approved but by three separate institutions.


It matters in the sense, will I build 500 houses or 1,500 houses in 2021? If I don't question it or seek clarification, it would be the difference in me building too much with no demand and going bust or building the right amount and making a much bigger profit.

I would look at previous years where the same mechanisms that you contend are cutting edge and you seem to think the internet and online banking was somehow concocted over a few rum and cokes during lockdown. This isnt the case these facilities have been available for everyone to use for years. Why would people question 2020 over 2019 or 2018 . I agree it would be useful info but I still dont see any reason why people in 2019 would only have one or two mortgage approvals and then in 2020 people just take a leap into doubling the amount of mortgage approvals and more importantly you have absolutely no proof of this just your head trying to manufacture data from no where again