2020/21 NBA season + Olympics

buyer95

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Oladipo is a big upgrade on Herro right now but Herro is only owed 4.5-5m over the next 3 seasons so he certainly represents better value than the 20m or so you'd have to pay Oladipo.

I think we'd see Oladipos production up under Spoe and Herros drop almost anywhere else so some unknown element too.

For me it depends; if they genuinely felt they had real championship aspirations I could get on board with them moving in opposite directions as I think it's a good fit for the Heat.

That said, imo you're right that Herro straight up on his contract for Oladipo on his or what he'd garner isn't a play I can see Miami making.
Miami would need more but Herro just isnt someone I'd take off the table if the right deal featuring Oladipo + player/picks came along.

Oladipo is an expiring contract, Herro is a core piece for the Heat and a key part of their future. Through 10 games he's putting up 18 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.(obviously the rebounds is over inflated and will revert back to 5is) In my opinion it would be insanity to do that deal, even if Houston sent picks/players with Oladipo. This guy is only 20 years of age, and was an integral part of a team that went to the NBA Finals. It's not going to happen especially as he can join Miami as a free agent in the summer. Yes Oladipo obviously would improve the Heat's chances at going all the way, but this Heat team is built for the long haul. They will be more than comfortable running with their guys, and maybe adding in a buyout guy.

That being said, if Oladipo turns up in Houston and starts making noise about being unhappy straight away and makes it clear that he wants out then you could see the Heat putting together a weaker deal and Houston taking it because they can't go through another circus. Whatever way you slice it, Herro will not be on the table

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

buyer95 wrote: »

Oladipo is an expiring contract, Herro is a core piece for the Heat and a key part of their future. Through 10 games he's putting up 18 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.(obviously the rebounds is over inflated and will revert back to 5is) In my opinion it would be insanity to do that deal, even if Houston sent picks/players with Oladipo. This guy is only 20 years of age, and was an integral part of a team that went to the NBA Finals. It's not going to happen especially as he can join Miami as a free agent in the summer. Yes Oladipo obviously would improve the Heat's chances at going all the way, but this Heat team is built for the long haul. They will be more than comfortable running with their guys, and maybe adding in a buyout guy.

That being said, if Oladipo turns up in Houston and starts making noise about being unhappy straight away and makes it clear that he wants out then you could see the Heat putting together a weaker deal and Houston taking it because they can't go through another circus. Whatever way you slice it, Herro will not be on the table

Yes, I understand he's an expiring contract, I addressed that element of it.

We agree Oladipo is a substantial upgrade and any deal would probably depend on the Heats ambitions. Right now

You feel he would never be on the table. I dont quite feel that strongly but I think it would take quite a lot for it to happen.

Difference comes down to how we rate him, numbers both regular season and playoffs aren't as kind as the narrative. The numbers you mentioned are often a fools errand and need to be looked at a little deeper which don't compare well at all to Oladipo both currently or historically.
I feel the Heat have put him in a very auspicious situation which I'm not sure translates elsewhere.

He's very good and a great pick up at that stage of the draft -mentioned that- I'm just not that high on him

buyer95

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Yes, I understand he's an expiring contract, I addressed that element of it.

We agree Oladipo is a substantial upgrade and any deal would probably depend on the Heats ambitions. Right now

You feel he would never be on the table. I dont quite feel that strongly but I think it would take quite a lot for it to happen.

Difference comes down to how we rate him, numbers both regular season and playoffs aren't as kind as the narrative. The numbers you mentioned are often a fools errand and need to be looked at a little deeper which don't compare well at all to Oladipo both currently or historically.
I feel the Heat have put him in a very auspicious situation which I'm not sure translates elsewhere.

He's very good and a great pick up at that stage of the draft -mentioned that- I'm just not that high on him

I see it is being reported that Oladipo is not at all happy with being dealt to Houston, essentially going from a team he does not want to be on to another such team. Seems he does want to end up on Miami. If you are the Heat you have to take the long view here. Oladipo would be an upgrade but not a significant enough one to give up a 20 year old Herro, who is only in year 2 and looks likely to have an amazing career. The team is well positioned, as they can just wait it out and get him for nothing in the summer. Nunn and a first rounder could well be enough for Oladipo, Houston will not want to lose him for nothing.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

buyer95 wrote: »

Oladipo would be an upgrade but not a significant enough one to give up a 20 year old Herro, who is only in year 2 and looks likely to have an amazing career.

This is where our opinions diverge.

PER 12.5
OPBM -1.8
DPBM -1.6
VORP -0.1 anything below 0.0 means you're less valuable than replacement level
WS/48 0.33

Certainly not all about numbers and as I said he's good but not good enough to be untouchable in my opinion.

As I mentioned the Heat have put him in very auspicious situations and they are still the numbers.

You can get a more in depth analysis here:

buyer95

Fat James Harden warming up tonight

Corvo

A very good half from Harden. Unfortunately, Joe Harris > James Harden so he’ll have to be traded and build around Joe

Morrison J

Harris is going to be benefit so much from Harden. Going to get a lot of open looks and Harden one of the best passers in the league will keep finding him. Fun watching the Nets in that half.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Corvo wrote: »

A very good half from Harden. Unfortunately, Joe Harris > James Harden so he’ll have to be traded and build around Joe

Not exactly the instantaneous return that we were guaranteed but he's played pretty well.
4 TO's thus far so perhaps a quadruple double on the cards.

Nash was funny at the start when asked about a minutes restriction and laughed it off in a clear fun needle about his conditioning.

Hard to know where Kyrie fits when looking at this.

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Not exactly the instantaneous return that we were guaranteed but he's played pretty well.
4 TO's thus far so perhaps a quadruple double on the cards.

Nash was funny at the start when asked about a minutes restriction and laughed it off in a clear fun needle about his conditioning.

Hard to know where Kyrie fits when looking at this.

No one said instantaneous in a first game sense. Clearly what was meant was when he returns to fitness abs sheds the fat, which he will do.

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

This is where our opinions diverge.

PER 12.5
OPBM -1.8
DPBM -1.6
VORP -0.1 anything below 0.0 means you're less valuable than replacement level
WS/48 0.33

Certainly not all about numbers and as I said he's good but not good enough to be untouchable in my opinion.

As I mentioned the Heat have put him in very auspicious situations and they are still the numbers.

You can get a more in depth analysis here:

I’m actually beginning to wonder are you trolling at this stage.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

ButtersSuki wrote: »

I’m actually beginning to wonder are you trolling at this stage.

What's trolling about presenting objective numbers on Tyler Herro and sharing a video which shows the sets that Spoe has created to showcase his ability?

Perhaps you might try a rebuttal rather than a childish response.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

ButtersSuki wrote: »

No one said instantaneous in a first game sense. Clearly what was meant was when he returns to fitness abs sheds the fat, which he will do.

It was a friendly needle. Chill out

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

It was a friendly needle. Chill out

Chill out? Says the person who just threw out a “childish response” comment?

Really?

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Chill out? Says the person who just threw out a “childish response” comment?

Really?

Are you joking?

Yes you clearly threw the first incendiary comment by questioning whether I was trolling.

That is a childish comment and I said as much.

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Are you joking?

Yes you clearly threw the first incendiary comment by questioning whether I was trolling.

That is a childish comment and I said as much.

No. I’m not joking.

You actually threw the first jab with your not so subtle “not exactly the instantaneous return we were guaranteed” dig at anyone who said Harden would be better than he’s been in recent weeks in Houston.

You’re on here a very short time and have had arguments with many people already. But I’m the one who needs to chill out? Ok.....:rolleyes:

You then tell someone to chill out after you say they made a childish comment. Is that how you normally engage with people? Do you think that
a) helped de-escalate things
b) escalated things

Do you think your behaviour is perfect? Serious question.

Your logic on Herro and Harden is baffling. You’re incredibly black and white in your arguments, focusing on a snap shot of time (in Harden’s case the last 9 games) rather than being nuanced. You’re ignoring - particularly in Herro’s case - the potential upside and the potential for improvement in the coming years. He’s still 20. Presenting your argument like you suggests this will always be his production. He has one thing in particular that doesn’t show in raw numbers, and that’s big game temperament.

I’m going to bed now, but I’ll elaborate further if required tomorrow. I won’t however be replying tonight in case you think I’m running away or something.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

ButtersSuki wrote: »

No. I’m not joking.

You actually threw the first jab with your not so subtle “not exactly the instantaneous return we were guaranteed” dig at anyone who said Harden would be better than he’s been in recent weeks in Houston.

You’re on here a very short time and have had arguments with many people already. But I’m the one who needs to chill out? Ok.....:rolleyes:

You then tell someone to chill out after you say they made a childish comment. Is that how you normally engage with people? Do you think that
a) helped de-escalate things
b) escalated things

Do you think your behaviour is perfect? Serious question.

Your logic on Herro and Harden is baffling. You’re incredibly black and white in your arguments, focusing on a snap shot of time (in Harden’s case the last 9 games) rather than being nuanced. You’re ignoring - particularly in Herro’s case - the potential upside and the potential for improvement in the coming years. He’s still 20. Presenting your argument like you suggests this will always be his production. He has one thing in particular that doesn’t show in raw numbers, and that’s big game temperament.

I’m going to bed now, but I’ll elaborate further if required tomorrow. I won’t however be replying tonight in case you think I’m running away or something.

My response was a friendly needle as I said and was directed at Buyer

buyer95 wrote: »

I would bet a significant amount of money that almost instantaneously you will see Harden turn this around.

Perhaps-they might confirm- had a little needle at me with the twitter screenshot.

It was nothing whatsoever related to you so no need to jump to conclusions.

Arguing with people? I have had disagreements on points of view of basketball.
Its about as benign as a topic could be and if you take a look through the comments, my language was never offensive.

You escalated by questioning whether I was a troll. You fully deserved to have your comment called childish so you're entirely at fault.

You made an incorrect inference and subsequently directly questioned whether i was trolling.
Unfortunately, you jumping to incorrect conclusions has unnecessarily escalated this and maybe it far more inflammatory than was intended.

Fine we disagree on Harden and Herro, again we dont have to agree but I'm not trolling.
I dont appreciate you suggesting I might be and clearly you are the cause of this escalation.
That is plainly obvious to anyone.

Try be a little more grown up in your responses and I wont need to call out your comments the way I did.

Feel free to respond when you get some rest if you wish.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Not exactly the instantaneous return that we were guaranteed but he's played pretty well.
4 TO's thus far so perhaps a quadruple double on the cards.

Nash was funny at the start when asked about a minutes restriction and laughed it off in a clear fun needle about his conditioning.

Hard to know where Kyrie fits when looking at this.

One turnover short.

buyer95

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Not exactly the instantaneous return that we were guaranteed but he's played pretty well.
4 TO's thus far so perhaps a quadruple double on the cards.

Nash was funny at the start when asked about a minutes restriction and laughed it off in a clear fun needle about his conditioning.

Hard to know where Kyrie fits when looking at this.

Stayed off boards until after the game as I wanted to properly watch it.

I said 'almost instantaneous.' As Butters said that obviously did not mean game 1 perfection. Harden did play an unbelievable second half though.
After feeling his way through the first half he was much more assertive in the second half about looking for his shot. He breezed his way to 32, 14 and 11. The broader point though that Harden had not suddenly become a diminished player stands. Or to make the point more specific, your contention that GM's around the league were worried that Harden would struggle to get back to his elite level is still one that I strongly disagree with.

It was clear as day to everyone that James was simply not trying the last 5 or 6 games in Houston. He still needs to shed those excess pounds but all things considered I'd consider that fairly instantaneous. Harden is the first player to have a thirty point triple double in his debut. He is going to do very well in Brooklyn.

All that said, the defense was worrying. That is a poor Magic team and they scored way too easily on the inside. Time will tell how far this team can go, but one things for sure - they will be fun to watch.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

buyer95 wrote: »

Stayed off boards until after the game as I wanted to properly watch it.

I said 'almost instantaneous.' As Butters said that obviously did not mean game 1 perfection. Harden did play an unbelievable second half though.
After feeling his way through the first half he was much more assertive in the second half about looking for his shot. He breezed his way to 32, 14 and 11. The broader point though that Harden had not suddenly become a diminished player stands. Or to make the point more specific, your contention that GM's around the league were worried that Harden would struggle to get back to his elite level is still one that I strongly disagree with.

It was clear as day to everyone that James was simply not trying the last 5 or 6 games in Houston. He still needs to shed those excess pounds but all things considered I'd consider that fairly instantaneous. Harden is the first player to have a thirty point triple double in his debut. He is going to do very well in Brooklyn.

All that said, the defense was worrying. That is a poor Magic team and they scored way too easily on the inside. Time will tell how far this team can go, but one things for sure - they will be fun to watch.

Of course not, as I said it was a needle, one specifically directed at your comment. Completely in jest.
Your Harden pic was obviously shared as joke too, whether directed at me or not, it was taken by me as a obvious joke.

As I said previously I thought he would more than likely return to elite form but questioned how quick it might come. The signs were better than expected, no issue acknowledging that.

Him and Durant looked good together hitting that magic 120pt marker they'll need.
As I previously said, how Kyrie fits will be interesting.

Sweet.Science

My chips are all in on the Nets .

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Sweet.Science wrote: »

My chips are all in on the Nets .

KD's return from what is generally viewed as a career altering injury has been unbelievable.
He looks so comfortable and playing big mins too.

LaVert's situation is sad, they found a mass on his kidney during his physical but continued with the trade.

They must suspect it's not anything malignant

Corvo

Bucks next up for the Nets, which should be interesting.

Sweet.Science

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

KD's return from what is generally viewed as a career altering injury has been unbelievable.
He looks so comfortable and playing big mins too.

LaVert's situation is sad, they found a mass on his kidney during his physical but continued with the trade.

They must suspect it's not anything malignant

Seen that and thought the worst . Hopefully as you say it's ok

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

My response was a friendly needle as I said and was directed at Buyer


Perhaps-they might confirm- had a little needle at me with the twitter screenshot.

It was nothing whatsoever related to you so no need to jump to conclusions.

Arguing with people? I have had disagreements on points of view of basketball.
Its about as benign as a topic could be and if you take a look through the comments, my language was never offensive.

You escalated by questioning whether I was a troll. You fully deserved to have your comment called childish so you're entirely at fault.

You made an incorrect inference and subsequently directly questioned whether i was trolling.
Unfortunately, you jumping to incorrect conclusions has unnecessarily escalated this and maybe it far more inflammatory than was intended.

Fine we disagree on Harden and Herro, again we dont have to agree but I'm not trolling.
I dont appreciate you suggesting I might be and clearly you are the cause of this escalation.
That is plainly obvious to anyone.

Try be a little more grown up in your responses and I wont need to call out your comments the way I did.

Feel free to respond when you get some rest if you wish.

Seeing as you ignored the many questions I asked you and rather then apologise you’ve doubled down further I think the best thing to do is ignore you. Hi

Sweet.Science

I'd love nothing more than seeing the lakers and the nets in the finals . Covid has cleared and fans are back allowed in arenas

Hook it to my veins

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I'd love nothing more than seeing the lakers and the nets in the finals . Covid has cleared and fans are back allowed in arenas

Hook it to my veins

KD vs LBJ, Kyrie vs LBJ. Lots of interesting narratives involved.

Buyouts will be quite interesting, the Nets certainly have more available mins. PJ Tucker comes to mind.

GoldFour4

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

Of course not, as I said it was a needle, one specifically directed at your comment. Completely in jest.
Your Harden pic was obviously shared as joke too, whether directed at me or not, it was taken by me as a obvious joke.

As I said previously I thought he would more than likely return to elite form but questioned how quick it might come. The signs were better than expected, no issue acknowledging that.

Him and Durant looked good together hitting that magic 120pt marker they'll need.
As I previously said, how Kyrie fits will be interesting.

Hi all - let’s keep things civil around here. Best to avoid the way the forum went a couple of years ago.

Generally accusing someone of being a troll is just as frowned upon as someone actually trolling so try to avoid that. The report post function is there if you feel aggrieved by a post.

Sweet.Science

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

KD vs LBJ, Kyrie vs LBJ. Lots of interesting narratives involved.

Buyouts will be quite interesting, the Nets certainly have more available mins. PJ Tucker comes to mind.

Yep . Nets prob do need one or 3 shrewd pieces of business before the playoffs . Not impossible but will be hard nonetheless

When you think back to the Lakers and Houston in the bubble . Houston gave them a lot of trouble at the start of that series. The Lakers then doubled Harden and left the ball in Westbrook's hands whose confidence was shot to pieces

I don't see how they can stop the Nets scoring 120 with the type of defence they have . Their defence isn't suited to playing the Nets at all . Now you could say the same for the Nets defence as things stand against the Lakers.

Intriguing

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Yep . Nets prob do need one or 3 shrewd pieces of business before the playoffs . Not impossible but will be hard nonetheless

When you think back to the Lakers and Houston in the bubble . Houston gave them a lot of trouble at the start of that series. The Lakers then doubled Harden and left the ball in Westbrook's hands whose confidence was shot to pieces

I don't see how they can stop the Nets scoring 120 with the type of defence they have . Their defence isn't suited to playing the Nets at all . Now you could say the same for the Nets defence as things stand against the Lakers.

Intriguing

Definitely, they don’t have much in terms of a lockdown perimeter defender especially with Rondo gone so against 3 of the best 1 vs 1 players they might struggle a little.

I agree that the Nets match up well vs the Lakers. That’s the element of the playoffs that differs so much from regular season. Match ups become infinitely more important.

Really intriguing few weeks coming, so much centres on Kyrie now

LuckyLloyd

Interesting discussion around the Harden trade. My big takeaway is teams need to understand the realities around stars saying they want out and get ahead of it. Houston clearly hoped Harden might knuckle down and get over it but it’s now clear that they would have been better served proactively trying to get a deal done before the season commenced. Harden weakened their negotiating position and I would personally conclude they got less than fair value in the end.

On the other side, yeah the Nets have no depth or defense but so what - they have a much better shot at a championship now than they did before doing the deal. It might not be this year but it doesn’t have to be this year.

I could see Kyrie being traded at some point. He’s not the type of character who can play second or third fiddle, his weird stuff around LeBron has shown us that before. He’d be the one of the three you’d move here too. Harden + KD plus solid pieces is a perennial championship contender.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Interesting discussion around the Harden trade. My big takeaway is teams need to understand the realities around stars saying they want out and get ahead of it. Houston clearly hoped Harden might knuckle down and get over it but it’s now clear that they would have been better served proactively trying to get a deal done before the season commenced. Harden weakened their negotiating position and I would personally conclude they got less than fair value in the end.

On the other side, yeah the Nets have no depth or defense but so what - they have a much better shot at a championship now than they did before doing the deal. It might not be this year but it doesn’t have to be this year.

I could see Kyrie being traded at some point. He’s not the type of character who can play second or third fiddle, his weird stuff around LeBron has shown us that before. He’d be the one of the three you’d move here too. Harden + KD plus solid pieces is a perennial championship contender.

Well put, the first paragraph is largely my position on it too.

The Rockets position was undoubtedly weakened by Harden and the assets available were not quite what they might have been nor were the full array of prospectors.

Although I’m a little more concerned on Harden’s ability to bounce back to his previous peak, anything close to peak Harden is a massive win.
All that said, I still feel that in light of the Rockets weakened position the haul they received and a deal centered on Simmons was a good return.

In light of the circumstances the Rockets were in, I feel they won from such a relatively poor negotiating position. That’s not to say the Nets didn’t come away happy but I don’t think this is a deal whereby the team losing the superstar will be aggrieved given where they stood.

Kyrie will be interesting but that is a scenario where real pennies on the dollar might exist. It’s one of the most unusual situations I can recall

LuckyLloyd

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nba/news/76ers-were-so-sure-of-james-harden-deal-that-ben-simmons-was-told-to-expect-a-trade-per-report/amp/

This article is somewhat speculative but if true, Houston have just handled this entire thing emotionally rather than logically.

ButtersSuki

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nba/news/76ers-were-so-sure-of-james-harden-deal-that-ben-simmons-was-told-to-expect-a-trade-per-report/amp/

This article is somewhat speculative but if true, Houston have just handled this entire thing emotionally rather than logically.

Haven’t read it but Windhorst said last week Simmons himself was fully expecting to be traded on the day itself. As did multiple other commentators.

To be fair all 3 of those players could be alsewhere in two years people figured the picks the Celtics got off of them.woukd be useless also.

Realistically I don't know what the rockets would build short term.around simmons but if they clear cap within the next two years they could start a build of a serious team if they get lucky with the draft. I'd argue that's as likely to get you a title as simmons

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nba/news/76ers-were-so-sure-of-james-harden-deal-that-ben-simmons-was-told-to-expect-a-trade-per-report/amp/

This article is somewhat speculative but if true, Houston have just handled this entire thing emotionally rather than logically.

Another poster mentioned this but I didn’t think owners/gms at that level are allowing decisions to be driven in that way.

I’d be fearful of a deal with Morey/Ainge to some extent but that’s because they’re excellent.

To pull the plug because of a contentious relationship seems incredible.

I’d be quick to dismiss if it was a GM pulling the plug but given it was the owner, he has nobody to answer to so his decision can be emotive & risk free in many respects.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Difficult to see how this Mavs team can work their way into homecourt in the West.

Unless that was to occur, Luka won’t really be in the mix for MVP but currently he sits as the fav

Rare enough that you’re almost 20% through the season and so many guys have a legitimate chance of contending for MVP.

Morrison J

Lebron and KD the clear value in the MVP betting imo. Can't see Giannis getting it again due to voter fatigue and the Warriors aren't good enough for Curry to win it.

buyer95

Morrison J wrote: »

Lebron and KD the clear value in the MVP betting imo. Can't see Giannis getting it again due to voter fatigue and the Warriors aren't good enough for Curry to win it.

I would agree on LeBron and KD, I'd make them favourites also. Joel Embiid is having an amazing season also, and the 76ers will be top 3 or 4 in the East so he could well be in the mix also. I would not rule out Luka at all, there is precedent with Russell Westbrook winning it when he was on OKC and they were like a 7th or 8th seed. For that reason I would also not rule out Steph.

Harden as an outside bet!

Morrison J

buyer95 wrote: »

I would agree on LeBron and KD, I'd make them favourites also. Joel Embiid is having an amazing season also, and the 76ers will be top 3 or 4 in the East so he could well be in the mix also. I would not rule out Luka at all, there is precedent with Russell Westbrook winning it when he was on OKC and they were like a 7th or 8th seed. For that reason I would also not rule out Steph.

Harden as an outside bet!

There's always a narrative around the winner though and with Westbrook it was that ridiculous narrative around him averaging a triple double. Harden got robbed of the MPV that year really. I don't think we'll see that mistake made again for a long time so I struggle to see it with Curry. Embiid has a shot but he's got to prove he can stay healthy first and I'm not convinced he'll be a sexy pick for voters. With Durant coming back from injury and LeBron long over due another MVP I think those are the likely narratives that win out to the voters.

I've backed Durant @ 13/1 and LeBron @ 12/1 anyway so I'm hoping my theories hold up!

ButtersSuki

buyer95 wrote: »

I would agree on LeBron and KD, I'd make them favourites also. Joel Embiid is having an amazing season also, and the 76ers will be top 3 or 4 in the East so he could well be in the mix also. I would not rule out Luka at all, there is precedent with Russell Westbrook winning it when he was on OKC and they were like a 7th or 8th seed. For that reason I would also not rule out Steph.

Harden as an outside bet!

Most journalists (voters) think Harden has behaved appallingly. He quit on his team and then dissed them publicly before being traded - cardinal sins in American sports. He has zero chance of winning regardless of what he does on the court. He’ll get votes sure, but win it? Not a chance.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Morrison J wrote: »

There's always a narrative around the winner though and with Westbrook it was that ridiculous narrative around him averaging a triple double. Harden got robbed of the MPV that year really. I don't think we'll see that mistake made again for a long time so I struggle to see it with Curry. Embiid has a shot but he's got to prove he can stay healthy first and I'm not convinced he'll be a sexy pick for voters. With Durant coming back from injury and LeBron long over due another MVP I think those are the likely narratives that win out to the voters.

I've backed Durant @ 13/1 and LeBron @ 12/1 anyway so I'm hoping my theories hold up!

If Westbrook had averaged 9.9 rebounds or assists all else equal then Harden was a clear winner and it’s the reason why I don’t see Luka with a chance unless he gets homecourt.
I don’t envisage a scenario where a narrative like the triple double exists that might capture people’s imagination.

KD would be my pick of the two given the load he needs to carry and a great narrative around returning from that injury.

Jokic averaging a triple double as a big man is a solid one but Nuggets may not get homecourt.

My sneaky outsider is PG13, currently 3rd in the MVP ladder, clearly playing with a chip on his shoulder after everything with Doc/Clipper collapse.
Kawhi is the best player but PG largely driving the team this year.
They’ll get homecourt so no issues there and he has been playing big mins.

chopperbyrne

Decided to get League Pass because I'm sick of Sky's ****e coverage.

Watched Celtics vs Knicks last night.

Knicks played reasonably well, but holy **** the Celtics were dirt.

As a team, they shot about 50% from free throws, and were awful from all other shots too.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

chopperbyrne wrote: »

Decided to get League Pass because I'm sick of Sky's ****e coverage.

Watched Celtics vs Knicks last night.

Knicks played reasonably well, but holy **** the Celtics were dirt.

As a team, they should about 50% from free throws, and were awful from all other shots too.

Great start time to watch two games and still get an early night.

I suppose Kemba on a mins restriction and Tatum out some may be forgiven but they looked dreadful. It makes you think how close Tatum might be in the MVP conversation.

Big fan of Jaylen Brown so I was really expecting something special given his performances thus far but he was really disappointing.

Sweet.Science

I really think if the Clippers upgrade at point guard they can come out of the west
Unsure why they didnt go for Rondo. Also unsure why he went to the Hawks himself to be behind Trae Young

Coneygree

I agree LeBron and Durant would be the picks. Jokic too, but he'll never get it unless he puts up never before seen numbers from a center.

LeBron might get it just to fit the narrative that he should have got it last year (in my opinion he shouldn't, it was clear as day Giannis was the best regular season player) and also the fact that since he won a ring with the Lakers there's very few critical of him any more. He's once again in complete coast mode but you feel he can kick it up a gear without too much damage being done to his post season energy any time and he could go on a tear for a few weeks to swing the narrative.

For KD, he's going to have acres of space and open looks to operate out of now that Harden and Kyrie will take so much focus off him. Its like he's back at Golden State again!

On a side note, it looks like it might be back to tough times being a Hawks fan unless something drastic changes.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

Coneygree wrote: »

I agree LeBron and Durant would be the picks. Jokic too, but he'll never get it unless he puts up never before seen numbers from a center.

LeBron might get it just to fit the narrative that he should have got it last year (in my opinion he shouldn't, it was clear as day Giannis was the best regular season player) and also the fact that since he won a ring with the Lakers there's very few critical of him any more. He's once again in complete coast mode but you feel he can kick it up a gear without too much damage being done to his post season energy any time and he could go on a tear for a few weeks to swing the narrative.

For KD, he's going to have acres of space and open looks to operate out of now that Harden and Kyrie will take so much focus off him. Its like he's back at Golden State again!

On a side note, it looks like it might be back to tough times being a Hawks fan unless something drastic changes.

I think the shorter schedule is advantageous to LBJ as he’ll need to kick it up a gear for a smaller amount of games.

Only issue with that is he’ll need to do it sooner rather than later because you can’t coast through as many early games.

I don’t know about Jokic, I’m bullish on his chances, I think the numbers he has now would be pretty close if Denver could get to 3rd? 25-11-10 while leading the league in win shares.

Possibly a stretch to think the oust the Jazz given they are so solid. For me, it comes down to Porter Jr, how productive can he be when he comes back and how much of his touches come from Jokic.

ButtersSuki

Livia Scarce Peppercorn wrote: »

If Westbrook had averaged 9.9 rebounds or assists all else equal then Harden was a clear winner and it’s the reason why I don’t see Luka with a chance unless he gets homecourt.
I don’t envisage a scenario where a narrative like the triple double exists that might capture people’s imagination.

KD would be my pick of the two given the load he needs to carry and a great narrative around returning from that injury.

Jokic averaging a triple double as a big man is a solid one but Nuggets may not get homecourt.

My sneaky outsider is PG13, currently 3rd in the MVP ladder, clearly playing with a chip on his shoulder after everything with Doc/Clipper collapse.
Kawhi is the best player but PG largely driving the team this year.
They’ll get homecourt so no issues there and he has been playing big mins.

No chance. Too many “Play Off P” and regular season (Dallas a few weeks ago) no shows and failures have tarnished the reputation beyond that sort of turnaround. Plus, he’s known as being “soft”. Like Harden, he will get some votes, but the narrative is too bad for him to command enough votes to win MVP unless he does something other-worldly for the rest of the season.

Gregk961

I bet on KD after I seen the Nets play a couple of games. If he plays a full season there is no way he's not in the top 5 just on merit alone. It's not hard to make the case that he's "owed" another MVP aswell. He's also going to have some gaudy numbers and the Nets look likely to finish in the top half of the east.

Lebron looks rock solid aswell. The rest of the candidates will struggle to meet all the criteria.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

ButtersSuki wrote: »

No chance. Too many “Play Off P” and regular season (Dallas a few weeks ago) no shows and failures have tarnished the reputation beyond that sort of turnaround. Plus, he’s known as being “soft”. Like Harden, he will get some votes, but the narrative is too bad for him to command enough votes to win MVP unless he does something other-worldly for the rest of the season.

My own thoughts were that he's effectively guaranteed to be in the Top 2 in the West so he automatically fulfills that criteria which is a big part.

Kia MVP ladder is usually pretty accurate at gauging the sentiment of how these awards are viewed and they have him 3rd.
As they say, Kawhi is the best player but PG is the catalyst of the Clippers early season success.

I think the chance is small but not zero.

Given we were discussing MVP with an odds aspect to it, I feel that PG at 100/1 is pretty generous. I just don't think his chances of winning MVP are less than 1%

Sweet.Science

I think if he stays injury free KD has to be favourite . I think the Nets will win the East and he will be close to 30 PPG