Covid in Limerick - Mod Warning in Post #1

Clareman

Folks,

This thread has been going great and is a great discussion but it still has to adhere to the overall rules of boards such as "attack the post not the poster".

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

By that argument by running 2 centres for a period of time should mean that we shot ahead of the rest of the country

Unfortunately there were never 2 centres open at the same time.

Radisson finished their last vaccine on Saturday 5th July. There were no vaccines administered on Sunday the 6th or Monday 7th. The Racecourse opened for vaccines on Tuesday 8th and was closed again on Saturday 12th.

Clareman

iguana wrote: »

By what argument? It's just plain logic. Two things happened. We shut down for nearly 4 days. We fell behind. While correlation doesn't always equal causation, in this case it does. In those 4 days a lot of people in their mid and early 40s should have been vaccinated. We weren't. Now we have to wait more than those 4 days because the people in their mid and early 50s are receiving their second dose at present.

And while it isn't the end of the world, there is currently a massive upsurge of cases in the region. Largely driven in primary schools. And we have the two age groups (35-39 and 40-44) that are mainly the parents of those primary school children and a huge part of the workforce, left waiting on vaccines. Ensuring the perfect conditions for the virus to spread.

So sure, the move happened and the shut down for horse racing happened. We are where we are. But lets not gaslight everybody by pretending that the reason we have fallen behind, during a critical time, isn't because we shut down. It's insulting to everyone's intelligence to pretend otherwise.

You are going to have to share some stats and references for those claims, I haven't seen anything that links surges to primary schools.

Can you please share details of where we have fallen behind? Outside of people not receiving appointments I'm not seeing anywhere that says that the region is falling behind.

My take on it is the racecourse can administrate ~24k vaccines a week, the Radisson could administrate ~16k a week, the 2 ran in conjunction with each other for a couple of weeks which compensates for the closed dates, couple this with Nenagh and Ennis continuing to deliver the vaccines together with GPs as well as pharmacies starting now. Also, I thought the racecourse was only closed for 1 day so far, the 12th of June, it's due to close on 3 more days but that hasn't happened yet and also won't have an impact on the rollout
https://www.rte.ie/news/regional/2021/0611/1227562-limerick-covid-vaccine/

A spokesperson for the HSE vaccination programme in Limerick said it had been built into their contract with Limerick Racecourse that it would be unavailable for vaccinations on five days over June and July, namely on 12, 18 June and on 4, 10 and 22 July and that the capacity of vaccinations was not being diminished or reduced at all because of this.

Cookiemunster

iguana wrote: »

By what argument? It's just plain logic. Two things happened. We shut down for nearly 4 days. We fell behind. While correlation doesn't always equal causation, in this case it does. In those 4 days a lot of people in their mid and early 40s should have been vaccinated. We weren't. Now we have to wait more than those 4 days because the people in their mid and early 50s are receiving their second dose at present.

And while it isn't the end of the world, there is currently a massive upsurge of cases in the region. Largely driven in primary schools. And we have the two age groups (35-39 and 40-44) that are mainly the parents of those primary school children and a huge part of the workforce, left waiting on vaccines. Ensuring the perfect conditions for the virus to spread.

So sure, the move happened and the shut down for horse racing happened. We are where we are. But lets not gaslight everybody by pretending that the reason we have fallen behind, during a critical time, isn't because we shut down. It's insulting to everyone's intelligence to pretend otherwise.

We could be open 24/7 and it wouldn't make a difference because vaccine supply is limited. The country should be at over 400k vaccines a week, but supply issues mean it's still below 300k a week. The portal still hasn't been opened to people in their 30s anywhere in the country. We have not fallen behind.

AlfaZen

Cookiemunster wrote: »

We could be open 24/7 and it wouldn't make a difference because vaccine supply is limited. The country should be at over 400k vaccines a week, but supply issues mean it's still below 300k a week. The portal still hasn't been opened to people in their 30s anywhere in the country. We have not fallen behind.

I think the issue here is yes, the vaccines have supply issues/constraints however we should be administering the maximum we can every day weather that is 1 or 10,000.

So I think it does make a difference as that one person that could have vaccinated on the Saturday but wasn't is 24 hours at greater risk than they need to be.

Over a week or a month the numbers vaccinated may average out but covid doesn't wait for averages.

Cookiemunster

AlfaZen wrote: »

I think the issue here is yes, the vaccines have supply issues/constraints however we should be administering the maximum we can every day weather that is 1 or 10,000.

So I think it does make a difference as that one person that could have vaccinated on the Saturday but wasn't is 24 hours at greater risk than they need to be.

Over a week or a month the numbers vaccinated may average out but covid doesn't wait for averages.

Except you've no proof that we're not using every vaccine in the hours we have available to us. The fact that supplies haven't increased, but we've gone from around 14k a week to 24k a week suggests that we are administering all available vaccines and that we were in fact limited by the being in the Radisson. The odds are that people will actually get vaccinated more quickly now that we have the extra capacity. And 24hrs will make a negligible difference to someones risk of getting Covid.

Clareman

AlfaZen wrote: »

I think the issue here is yes, the vaccines have supply issues/constraints however we should be administering the maximum we can every day weather that is 1 or 10,000.

So I think it does make a difference as that one person that could have vaccinated on the Saturday but wasn't is 24 hours at greater risk than they need to be.

Over a week or a month the numbers vaccinated may average out but covid doesn't wait for averages.

Aren't vaccines delivered on a weekly basis rather than a daily basis? If (say), 24k doses are available for a week from the racecourse is there really a difference between delivering .5k a day rather than 4k a day? Surely that would mean that on Friday evening you'd have 17k vs 20k delivered and on Sunday you'd have the 24k delivered.

Clareman

Actually an important point here that I think might be missed is that just because the racecourse is being closed doesn't mean that less vaccines are being given out, there is more vaccinators than vaccines at the moment

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

Aren't vaccines delivered on a weekly basis rather than a daily basis? If (say), 24k doses are available for a week from the racecourse is there really a difference between delivering .5k a day rather than 4k a day? Surely that would mean that on Friday evening you'd have 17k vs 20k delivered and on Sunday you'd have the 24k delivered.

I honestly don't know the details of the supply chains. But, if they are delivered weekly I would think it would be best (in terms of protecting the public from covid) to run the centers for the maximum possible hours until the supply for that week has been fully administered. In my opinion this would give the greatest cover to people.

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

Actually an important point here that I think might be missed is that just because the racecourse is being closed doesn't mean that less vaccines are being given out, there is more vaccinators than vaccines at the moment

This may be true over a week, but the question is then how quickly are the available vaccines being administered?

Could they lets say get the full supply for the week administered in 4 days (Monday to Thursday) and then have no issue with horse racing at the weekend.

I think it all boils down to Communication from the HSE. Last weeks issues just looked so bad (even if the impact was relatively small).

Treepole

AlfaZen wrote: »

I honestly don't know the details of the supply chains. But, if they are delivered weekly I would think it would be best (in terms of protecting the public from covid) to run the centers for the maximum possible hours until the supply for that week has been fully administered. In my opinion this would give the greatest cover to people.

That is completely impractical as doesn't give any thought to resource planning?
You need to be able to schedule staff and the people getting the vaccine.

Cookiemunster

AlfaZen wrote: »

I honestly don't know the details of the supply chains. But, if they are delivered weekly I would think it would be best (in terms of protecting the public from covid) to run the centers for the maximum possible hours until the supply for that week has been fully administered. In my opinion this would give the greatest cover to people.

But the supply for the week is being fully administered. Even with the closure.

AlfaZen

Treepole wrote: »

That is completely impractical as doesn't give any thought to resource planning?
You need to be able to schedule staff and the people getting the vaccine.

That's why I said maximum hours instead of 24/7 like some have mentioned.

There are a number of constraints besides the vaccine availability to would need to be factored in.

Clareman

AlfaZen wrote: »

I honestly don't know the details of the supply chains. But, if they are delivered weekly I would think it would be best (in terms of protecting the public from covid) to run the centers for the maximum possible hours until the supply for that week has been fully administered. In my opinion this would give the greatest cover to people.

There are pros and cons for every approach, there's a reason supply chain is such a huge industry but I would have thought that having a standard daily schedule rather than a busier first couple of days would have been the best way to go about it. There's a lot of moving parts needed to get this working, vaccines need to be confirmed, those vaccinated 4 weeks ago need to be prioritized, confirmations are needed, then others contacts.

AlfaZen

Cookiemunster wrote: »

But the supply for the week is being fully administered. Even with the closure.

Okay fair enough but my question is - Is it being administered a quickly as it could be?

example:

24k Vaccines available in Limerick for the week of 14th June.
Do they administer 3.5k per day for 7 days or could they do 6k a day and get it done in 4 days? (Understand that there are other variables to would need to be considered)

If they could get the 6k done each day you could have 10k more Limerick people vaccinated by end of day on Thursday.

More people vaccinated sooner = better protection for the population.
The date by which we have everyone vaccinated would not change.

Clareman

AlfaZen wrote: »

This may be true over a week, but the question is then how quickly are the available vaccines being administered?

Could they lets say get the full supply for the week administered in 4 days (Monday to Thursday) and then have no issue with horse racing at the weekend.

I think it all boils down to Communication from the HSE. Last weeks issues just looked so bad (even if the impact was relatively small).

Could you imagine the complaints if the vaccine centre was only open 4 days a week? Regardless of all the vaccines being given out in the 4 days that would be a PR nightmare, it would also mean that when vaccine supply increases they'll have to add extra days. At the moment they are able to schedule the workload well in advance and cater for planned issues, such as the racecourse being closed for other events.

banie01

RivetingRoger wrote: »

People all over the country in the 41/42 age bracket have texts received. No one in Limerick has.

What's going on

This isn't true though.
Last week I posted regarding my brother and sister in law who are both 41.
1 received their 1st dose this morning, the other is getting their's on Thursday.

I also posted regarding my 43y.o wife receiving her Vax last Thursday when apparently no 43y.os had appointments either.

Clareman

AlfaZen wrote: »

Okay fair enough but my question is - Is it being administered a quickly as it could be?

example:

24k Vaccines available in Limerick for the week of 14th June.
Do they administer 3.5k per day for 7 days or could they do 6k a day and get it done in 4 days? (Understand that there are other variables to would need to be considered)

If they could get the 6k done each day you could have 10k more Limerick people vaccinated by end of day on Thursday.

More people vaccinated sooner = better protection for the population.
The date by which we have everyone vaccinated would not change.

There is so much scheduling and moving parts here I don't think it would be possible "front load" the week and in the overall scheme of things does a day or 2 difference for a small number of patients make that much of a difference?

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

There are pros and cons for every approach, there's a reason supply chain is such a huge industry but I would have thought that having a standard daily schedule rather than a busier first couple of days would have been the best way to go about it. There's a lot of moving parts needed to get this working, vaccines need to be confirmed, those vaccinated 4 weeks ago need to be prioritized, confirmations are needed, then others contacts.

There are indeed pros and cons but my thinking is just on getting the maximum amount of people vaccinated as soon as possible.

I've worked in Supply Chain and Logistics for years for a large multinational. I fully appreciate what the HSE have done to date but just wondering if there could be small improvements made to what they have in place.

Clareman

AlfaZen wrote: »

There are indeed pros and cons but my thinking is just on getting the maximum amount of people vaccinated as soon as possible.

I've worked in Supply Chain and Logistics for years for a large multinational. I fully appreciate what the HSE have done to date but just wondering if there could be small improvements made to what they have in place.

This is a massed vaccination programme which is being rolled out to the entire population and any "small improvement" is almost always met with backlash, they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't, people are going to find fault no matter what way it's done.

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

Could you imagine the complaints if the vaccine centre was only open 4 days a week? Regardless of all the vaccines being given out in the 4 days that would be a PR nightmare, it would also mean that when vaccine supply increases they'll have to add extra days. At the moment they are able to schedule the workload well in advance and cater for planned issues, such as the racecourse being closed for other events.

PR is a major item that I think they got wrong on the move to the Racecourse. People were not aware of the scheduled closed days. I think if they were communicating this up front and made it clear it would not have a major impact if may not have blown up like it did.

Maybe the 4 days would give them time on the other 3 days to plan for the following week. Confirm supplies, schedule appointments and have the staff in place ready to go again on the Monday.

AlfaZen

Clareman wrote: »

There is so much scheduling and moving parts here I don't think it would be possible "front load" the week and in the overall scheme of things does a day or 2 difference for a small number of patients make that much of a difference?

I think having 10k extra people vaccinated on a thursday in Limerick would be worth it in light of the situation we are in. But thats just my opinion.

I also don't think much else changes apart from the staffing. Maybe having 4 day shift rather that 7 days would work better too.

sioda

42 still waiting well was 41 when registering my cousin also 41 for an appointment this morning for Ennis but lives in town

Clareman

I've issued a couple of bans today and I didn't want to but if posters insist on taking moderation into their own hands in a public forum then there's no choice.

I see all the expert epidemiologists we discovered we had last year are now expert project managers too.

AlfaZen

Jeremy Beagle wrote: »

I see all the expert epidemiologists we discovered we had last year are now expert project managers too.

In fairness more chance of someone being a Project Manager than an epidemiologist.

knipex

Clareman wrote: »

Aren't vaccines delivered on a weekly basis rather than a daily basis? If (say), 24k doses are available for a week from the racecourse is there really a difference between delivering .5k a day rather than 4k a day? Surely that would mean that on Friday evening you'd have 17k vs 20k delivered and on Sunday you'd have the 24k delivered.

No. Deliveries are intermittent, some weeks multiple deliveries , some none. It may have stabilized a bit now but in the early days it was crazy.

Pfizer (and to a lesser extent Moderna) have been pretty good in deliveries v's forecast on a Monthly basis but you often see surges towards the end of the month, with the stat being quieter. Towards the star of June vaccines were getting scarce and deliveries were down (it was reported in the media and mentioned in an interview on radio 1) but hey were expecting a big surge in deliveries in the coming week. Donnelly mentioned the same in an interview last week,

knipex

AlfaZen wrote: »

This may be true over a week, but the question is then how quickly are the available vaccines being administered?

Could they lets say get the full supply for the week administered in 4 days (Monday to Thursday) and then have no issue with horse racing at the weekend.

I think it all boils down to Communication from the HSE. Last weeks issues just looked so bad (even if the impact was relatively small).

At one point all vaccines were being administered within 72 hours of arrival, ass deliveries got larger this increased but except for quantities begin held to ensure availability for 2nd dose all vaccines were begin administered within a week of arrival.

The tighter you run your supply chain the less scope there is for flexibility and the more appointments will be cancelled. There has never been an issue with the speed of administration, quite the opposite, many predicted chaos and doom but its been run very well.

knipex

AlfaZen wrote: »

That's why I said maximum hours instead of 24/7 like some have mentioned.

There are a number of constraints besides the vaccine availability to would need to be factored in.

You keep saying this but have posted no evidence to support it.

Not a single knowledgeable credible source has reported a delay with the administration of vaccines, either media or politician

knipex

AlfaZen wrote: »

Okay fair enough but my question is - Is it being administered a quickly as it could be?

example:

24k Vaccines available in Limerick for the week of 14th June.
Do they administer 3.5k per day for 7 days or could they do 6k a day and get it done in 4 days? (Understand that there are other variables to would need to be considered)

If they could get the 6k done each day you could have 10k more Limerick people vaccinated by end of day on Thursday.

More people vaccinated sooner = better protection for the population.
The date by which we have everyone vaccinated would not change.

3 days sooner, then the center site idle with staff sitting at home, and everyone complaining about the center begin shut., But to achieve that you need more equipment, more staff, and get less flexibility.

For 3 days that will be lost waiting for second dose..