Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Timing belt

Mickey_James wrote: »

Anyone know if there's any migration stats for the last 6 months or so?

Would be interested to see if there's still the large number of net immigrants.

You probably won't see any data till August 2021 when the CSO will publish the population estimates for the year ended April 2021.

I would expect that there is a uptick in Irish Nationals returning due to covid and a reduction in the foreign nationals numbers.

Overall it should be down quite a bit.

naturalgems18

awec wrote: »

You could try put in a bigger counter offer to see if that scares them off.

Slow, small increments is a sure sign of someone running out of money though. They are probably sitting each time wondering if they can stretch to just 1k more, so I suspect you're near the end either way.

Thanks - we actually tried that - increased 5k and then 3k to see would that knock them out of contention, but no, they came back with 1k increments each time (after 5 days and 3 days, respectively) - :mad: - was hoping to go sale agreed before xmas! Might chance the EA tomorrow and see what the story is if nothing happens today.

Marius34

Mickey_James wrote: »

Anyone know if there's any migration stats for the last 6 months or so?

Would be interested to see if there's still the large number of net immigrants.

I don't think there are immigration stats for recent data.
But there is quarterly information on Population aged 15 or over (i don't know if there are statistics that would include those below 15)
2018Q1 3,823.900
2018Q2 3,848.300
2018Q3 3,860.200
2018Q4 3,877.200
2019Q1 3,896.500
2019Q2 3,912.600
2019Q3 3,925.600
2019Q4 3,942.800
2020Q1 3,958.400
2020Q2 3,973.800
2020Q3 3,984.100

Browney7

CSO property price index shows an increase again in October 2020.

Dub 124.3 compared to 123.7 in September 20 and 125.9 in October 2019. The Dublin high water mark was 127.7 in Oct 18.

Similar story for National ex dub numbers: 147.7 compared to 146.9 SEP 20 and 147.0 in October 2019.

The new Vs existing dwellings index is interesting though - figures are quarterly but the index stood at 126.8 at Q3 18, 130.8 Q3 19 and stands at 133 at Q3 20 for new dwellings.

The index for existing dwellings in comparison stood at 134.3 at Q3 18, 136.1 at Q3 19 and 133.9 at Q3 20. Some evidence here that the government stimulating the demand side for new builds may be having an impact on pricing as well as the REITs and funds continuing to pay strong values for new apartments and property that individual buyers may not have been able to pay.

Villa05

naturalgems18 wrote:

Might chance the EA tomorrow and see what the story is if nothing happens today.

Don't hound the Ea, it's a signal you are desperate. Bidding is a game of poker, Don't give away anything

naturalgems18

Villa05 wrote: »

Don't hound the Ea, it's a signal you are desperate. Bidding is a game of poker, Don't give away anything

Define 'hound'

No, you're right - will sit tight, for now.

BryanMartin21

Browney7 wrote: »

CSO property price index shows an increase again in October 2020.

Dub 124.3 compared to 123.7 in September 20 and 125.9 in October 2019. The Dublin high water mark was 127.7 in Oct 18.

Similar story for National ex dub numbers: 147.7 compared to 146.9 SEP 20 and 147.0 in October 2019.

The new Vs existing dwellings index is interesting though - figures are quarterly but the index stood at 126.8 at Q3 18, 130.8 Q3 19 and stands at 133 at Q3 20 for new dwellings.

The index for existing dwellings in comparison stood at 134.3 at Q3 18, 136.1 at Q3 19 and 133.9 at Q3 20. Some evidence here that the government stimulating the demand side for new builds may be having an impact on pricing as well as the REITs and funds continuing to pay strong values for new apartments and property that individual buyers may not have been able to pay.

Still no growth from 15 years ago for property prices as the deflationary cycle perpetuates and is likely going to continue as a result of covid.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

We can agree on something - this. There is currently a massive undersupply of affordable homes.

That's a very different statement to a massive undersupply of homes.

I did a quick comparison of the no of new housing units sold in Dublin v the no of completions and it suggests that there was housing stock available up until 2015 as more homes were sold that built.

What does not make sense is the volume of house sold v built in Dublin since 2016 when we are in the middle of a housing crisis.

The data used for new units sold is the data set used for RPPI and includes all Market and Non-Market transactions recorded.

awec

Timing belt wrote: »

What does not make sense is the volume of house sold v built in Dublin since 2016 when we are in the middle of a housing crisis.

Units (apartments) built for rent?

I don't know how prevalent it is, but in the apartment complex I used to live in in Dublin they built numerous new blocks of apartments and none of them ever went up for sale.

Timing belt

awec wrote: »

Units (apartments) built for rent?

I don't know how prevalent it is, but in the apartment complex I used to live in in Dublin they built numerous new blocks of apartments and none of them ever went up for sale.

It could be but I would have thought that they would have been captured under a non-Market sale but I suppose if the developer held onto them they have never been sold.

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

I did a quick comparison of the no of new housing units sold in Dublin v the no of completions and it suggests that there was housing stock available up until 2015 as more homes were sold that built.

What does not make sense is the volume of house sold v built in Dublin since 2016 when we are in the middle of a housing crisis.

The data used for new units sold is the data set used for RPPI and includes all Market and Non-Market transactions recorded.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=536329&stc=1&d=1608140594

Build-to-Let, social housing (including regeneration projects), self build (including rebuild).

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

Build-to-Let, social housing (including regeneration projects), self build (including rebuild).

Would they be captured on the property register under non-market

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

Would they be captured on the property register under non-market

No, if those properties wasn't sold.
And in some case for example, where I live in Balgriffin/Clongriffin, the whole Project of 650 apartments was sold, and not an apartments in the project. Another project of ~1000 apartments in the area as well will be build-to-let, that won't appear in PPR.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/entire-372-unit-apartment-scheme-in-clongriffin-sells-for-rental-1.3666471
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/twinlite-presses-ahead-with-282-unit-rental-scheme-in-north-dublin-1.4314857
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/gannon-properties-eyes-approval-for-nearly-2-000-clongriffin-homes-1.4009384

And 150 of social housing in the area, close to complete, won't appear on PPR:
https://www.dbfl.ie/progress-at-ayrfield/

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

No, if those properties wasn't sold.
And in some case for example, where I live in Balgriffin/Clongriffin, the whole Project of 650 apartments was sold, and not an apartments in the project. Another project of ~1000 apartments in the area as well will be build-to-let, that won't appear in PPR.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/entire-372-unit-apartment-scheme-in-clongriffin-sells-for-rental-1.3666471
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/twinlite-presses-ahead-with-282-unit-rental-scheme-in-north-dublin-1.4314857
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/gannon-properties-eyes-approval-for-nearly-2-000-clongriffin-homes-1.4009384

And 150 of social housing in the area, close to complete, won't appear on PPR:
https://www.dbfl.ie/progress-at-ayrfield/

Thanks that makes sense now

Hubertj

Timing belt wrote: »

I did a quick comparison of the no of new housing units sold in Dublin v the no of completions and it suggests that there was housing stock available up until 2015 as more homes were sold that built.

What does not make sense is the volume of house sold v built in Dublin since 2016 when we are in the middle of a housing crisis.

The data used for new units sold is the data set used for RPPI and includes all Market and Non-Market transactions recorded.

Perhaps when the new builds are completed needs to be considered? For example, new build is completed and goes on market in q4 in a year likely not to sell until following year. So more appropriate to look at cumulative unsold and breakdown of how long they are or were unsold for?

JimmyVik

naturalgems18 wrote: »

Thanks - we actually tried that - increased 5k and then 3k to see would that knock them out of contention, but no, they came back with 1k increments each time (after 5 days and 3 days, respectively) - :mad: - was hoping to go sale agreed before xmas! Might chance the EA tomorrow and see what the story is if nothing happens today.

As Clint Eastwood said "Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one".
I think you should just go with your gut yourself. Ignore all of us here pretending we are experts on the psychology of falling in love with a house and bidding on it. Everyone will tell you something different.
Next we will be saying we can predict the price of property in the future

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I did a quick comparison of the no of new housing units sold in Dublin v the no of completions and it suggests that there was housing stock available up until 2015 as more homes were sold that built.

What does not make sense is the volume of house sold v built in Dublin since 2016 when we are in the middle of a housing crisis.

The data used for new units sold is the data set used for RPPI and includes all Market and Non-Market transactions recorded.

Developers reporting rising levels of unsold stock has been commented on before in the thread and elsewhere - notably by Goodbodys:

Second, the brokers estimates that despite supply running well below the needs of the economy – which are probably between 32,000 and 38,000 new builds a year – the stock of unsold houses is actually growing.

In the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide, with most of this occurring in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093. This increase in unsold stock will hit funding for some house builders, Goodbody says, and in turn reduce their ability to build new homes.

Houses are not being sold either because they are in the wrong location or they cost too much.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/we-are-building-the-wrong-houses-in-the-wrong-places-at-the-wrong-prices-1.3928222

Ozark707

schmittel wrote: »

Developers reporting rising levels of unsold stock has been commented on before in the thread and elsewhere - notably by Goodbodys:



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/we-are-building-the-wrong-houses-in-the-wrong-places-at-the-wrong-prices-1.3928222

I guess the developers could be hoping for a mass purchase by a REIT and/or government. They don't really seem to have any appetite for major price cuts to get the market moving. Wonder how long they can hold out.

brisan

Ozark707 wrote: »

I guess the developers could be hoping for a mass purchase by a REIT and/or government. They don't really seem to have any appetite for major price cuts to get the market moving. Wonder how long they can hold out.

Mon, Jun 17, 2019, 13:40 Updated: Mon, Jun 17, 2019, 13:43


However as has been said there is a shortage of affordable houses ,not necessarily of houses

BryanMartin21

brisan wrote: »

Mon, Jun 17, 2019, 13:40 Updated: Mon, Jun 17, 2019, 13:43


However as has been said there is a shortage of affordable houses ,not necessarily of houses

Yes, exactly; it is not sustainable to have jobs concentrated in Dublin city but not have affordable housing costs within Dublin city too. There are plenty of offices around Grand Canal Dock but rents out of control so people that actually should be living near those offices cannot actually live there!

BryanMartin21

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/affordable-housing-plan-will-see-state-take-up-to-30-equity-with-first-time-buyers-1.4440041

A new affordable housing plan due to be put to Cabinet next week. The State will take up to a 30% equity in new homes with FTBs and no arbitrary salary caps to be eligible for the scheme.

“We are looking at a shared equity type arrangement. There will be no arbitrary salary caps, that’s what’s really important. If you are a couple working in two decent jobs, they’re going to be [earning] over €75,000. They are left renting, paying an exorbitant rent, and they can’t save enough [to buy].”

Another measure

Mr O’Brien also said he will bring legislation to Cabinet next week to place the Land Development Agency on a statutory footing to oblige it to deliver affordable housing on State land.

If these measures get the home building increased dramatically, then they are necessarily a good thing.

brisan

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/affordable-housing-plan-will-see-state-take-up-to-30-equity-with-first-time-buyers-1.4440041

A new affordable housing plan due to be put to Cabinet next week. The State will take up to a 30% equity in new homes with FTBs and no arbitrary salary caps to be eligible for the scheme.



Another measure



If these measures get the home building increased dramatically, then they are necessarily a good thing.

Builders rubbing their hands in glee

TheSheriff

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/affordable-housing-plan-will-see-state-take-up-to-30-equity-with-first-time-buyers-1.4440041

A new affordable housing plan due to be put to Cabinet next week. The State will take up to a 30% equity in new homes with FTBs and no arbitrary salary caps to be eligible for the scheme.



Another measure



If these measures get the home building increased dramatically, then they are necessarily a good thing.

Haven't read this yet, but I cannot see this ending well for FTBs.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

Haven't read this yet, but I cannot see this ending well for FTBs.

or the taxpayer.

brisan

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/affordable-housing-plan-will-see-state-take-up-to-30-equity-with-first-time-buyers-1.4440041

A new affordable housing plan due to be put to Cabinet next week. The State will take up to a 30% equity in new homes with FTBs and no arbitrary salary caps to be eligible for the scheme.



Another measure



If these measures get the home building increased dramatically, then they are necessarily a good thing.

and they can’t save enough [to buy]

This year has proved that to be false

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Haven't read this yet, but I cannot see this ending well for FTBs.

It will however end well for the builder
New house prices will shoot up

TheSheriff

brisan wrote: »

It will however end well for the builder
New house prices will shoot up

They absolutely will.

And second hand homes will subsequently follow I would think , lagging somewhat behind.

This is madness surely.

lawred2

BryanMartin21 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/affordable-housing-plan-will-see-state-take-up-to-30-equity-with-first-time-buyers-1.4440041

A new affordable housing plan due to be put to Cabinet next week. The State will take up to a 30% equity in new homes with FTBs and no arbitrary salary caps to be eligible for the scheme.



Another measure



If these measures get the home building increased dramatically, then they are necessarily a good thing.

We can expect a juicy jump in house prices so

brisan

lawred2 wrote: »

We can expect a juicy jump in house prices so

Surely the Government can see this
It happened with HTB and happened again when they increased HTB
The Government will just have to bit the bullet and b the lead in house building
State land, state finance ,state guarantees to buy the final product at an agreed price
Some sold privately some used for social housing

hometruths

Was discussed on Pat Kenny this morning with Karl Deeter. He made the valid point that you would have to question the wisdom of a scheme to lend money to people who by definition cannot afford to borrow it!