Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

RichieRich_89

I reckon it could be Wales's year again this year. They played some scintillating rugby in last years Championship, and have a knack of often pulling things together just at the right time.

bilston

I think Scotland will surprise a few...or maybe it won't be a surprise, but you know England and France at home, they have us up last in Dublin. I wouldn't be that surprised if they had something to play for.

Dubinusa

A lot will depend on Sexton. If he's out injured, it could be a long 6nations.

ersatz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556016#Comment_118556016

How long did he wait for another cap?

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556256#Comment_118556256

Five days

stephen_n

We have been traditionally slow starters in the 6N. Although we came quick out of the blocks in November against Japan. I wonder could that be an issue against Wales. If we are not clicking fully and don’t build a lead, Wales could get an in.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556865#Comment_118556865

Wales tend to start slow too.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556100#Comment_118556100

Top teams back themselves to win. We need to start thinking that way.

It isn't one or the other. Not once did I say we shouldn't back ourselves to win. And I never said "we need to never talk about beating them".

Top teams do respect their opponents and are wary of opponents. You really don't think NZ and SA are wary of their opponents? I'm not saying we should be quivering in fear of Wales, but what I'm hearing from people is very similar to what I heard before England in 2019. "We're amazing" "they had a crap year last year, therefore they're no good" "we just need to turn up" "expect a comfortable win" etc. It never ends well for us. None of that, is saying we shouldn't back ourselves to win. Of course we should.

If you think "Beating this Welsh team well is where we need to be" then I think you have wildly unrealistic expectations and possibly a tad entitled. Our players really aren't vastly superior to theirs.

ersatz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556495#Comment_118556495

😁

Other than the 20 minutes against Russia in a meaningless world cup game, he is still waiting. I heard BoD on the radio about two weeks ago recalling Japan as the reason for Carty's disappearance from the scene, and he wasn't saying 'actually Carty played ok and created two tries and the team were leading when he was replaced...' Carty was definitely the guy who carried the can for the Japan fiasco when the coaches and some of the senior players got it badly wrong in preparation and on the night.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556177#Comment_118556177

It would definitely be a surprise for Scotland to actually string together a number of good performances.

ionadnapokot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556865#Comment_118556865

Welsh are missing 6 starters in their pack. Ireland have a stronger pack compared to the one that started in Cardiff last year.

Ireland will beat this Welsh team handily.

Liam Williams; Louis Rees-Zammit, Nick Tompkins, Willis Halaholo, Josh Adams; Dan Biggar, Williams/Davies

Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias, Tomas Francis; Adam Beard, Will Rowlands; Ellis Jenkins/ Morriarty, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557777#Comment_118557777

This doesn't compute - BOD has been pretty consistent in saying Carty should be involved, I think?

But far, far more relevant is that Carty has been called up to a number of squads since the RWC. If he was really being scapegoated or whatever, he wouldn't have been.

The most likely explanation is the simplest; that the coaches reckoned other guys could do the job better.

AckwelFoley

I've got reasonable confidence ireland can perform well this year. I think France could could also perform. I think England and Wales are off the boil a little.

Scotland will have 2 good games this year. Usually early doors or v England

Re Carty, and including any Athlone bias I may have, he's simply not good enough. We have better option. Probably 4 better options

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557769#Comment_118557769

I think you’re mixing up what fans say and what teams themselves think as well as drawing some odd parallel with irrelevant comments on the internet to our performances. Had we gone into the England game in 2019 all crying out that we were going to lose to an awesome English side it wouldn’t have changed the result. What we say here is entirely irrelevant to how the Irish team play.

Also, we absolutely should be beating this Welsh team. We are at home. They have a load of injuries. And aside from a couple of players, ours are superior. Let’s look at the units….

Front Row:

Porter-Kelleher-Furlong vs Jones-Elias-Francis. To me we are clearly superior there. It’s a good Welsh front row, but our front row is particularly strong.

Second Row:

Beirne-Ryan vs Beard-Rowlands. This is tighter but I think ours edge it and offer more in general play.

Back Row:

Doris-VDF-Conan vs Jenkins-Basham-Wainwright. Basham looks good but as a unit to me we are better here too.

Half Backs:

JGP-Sexton vs Williams-Biggar. I’d rate Sexton ahead of Biggar anyway. Don’t think there’s much between the 9s but as a unit I reckon we’re better here.

Centres:

Aki/Henshaw-Ringrose vs Halaholo-Tompkins. We’re in top here too for me. Tompkins is good but Ringrose looked very comfortable against NZ and has been playing really well.

Back Three:

Earls/Hansen-Conway-Keenan vs Adam’s-LRZ-Williams. This is the only unit that I would look at and think that Wales have the edge. LRZ is class and Williams can be outstanding, although has he been lately? Either way, if it’s advantage Ireland at all other units I’m not sure how much the back 3 will impact the game.

I just don’t see where Wales are going to win this game tbh. Their Regions are going very badly. Ospreys, the only team to have played 10 games, are the only ones in the top half of the league table. In Europe, Ospreys and Scarlets didn’t win a game with Cardiff only managing 1 win. And that was the cancelled game vs Toulouse. Dragons in the Challenge Cup didn’t win a game either. So the Welsh lost every game they played. They don’t have Gatland to galvanise them any more at Test level.

We absolutely should expect to win this game. It isn’t unrealistic or entitled to believe that. And if all you’ve got are intangibles like “it’s Wales in the 6Ns” or “we were confident before and look what happened” then I just don’t see a single reason that challenges any of the above.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557777#Comment_118557777

I’ve seen this a lot. The “Carty is to blame for Japan” seems to be a recent thing. I don’t recall anyone saying it at the time. Drico says a lot of things. I wouldn’t rate him as an analyst or commentator and he certainly doesn’t have any insider knowledge. And the only people who seem to bring up the “Carty was to blame for Japan” seem to be people who want to argue against it. I’ve seen few, if anyone, state it as something they believe.

Carty wasn’t selected in the last couple of years because he didn’t deserve it. He acknowledged himself last summer the issues he had that prevented his selection. He was too inconsistent. He looks to be improving there (although he’s still had a few wobbles in recent weeks) so his selection fortunes have improved too. So can we do away with this idea that Carty was carrying the can for anything other than his own performances?

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558458#Comment_118558458

I'd agree with a lot of that molloy tho I probably think their half-backs as a unit shade ours. The one major quibble I'd have is the whole paragraph beginning:

I just don’t see where Wales are going to win this game tbh. Their Regions are going very badly.

How the Regions have gone has been pretty inconsequential to how Wales have gone for years now. How much of that was down to Gatland remains to be seen, but we've seen it in parts under Pivac. We've also seen them be pretty poor and have some hufe slices of luck under him too, mind.

Having said all that, I think our forward dominance and home advantage should mean we'll be relatively comfortable here. I think we'll win by about 12.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558547#Comment_118558547

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wales have that lift from Pivac. Remember they really should have lost to a 14 man Ireland in Cardiff last year but for a number of unforced errors on our part. They weren’t great at all for most of the 6Ns last year and as you said had massive slices of luck across 3 games that just about got them over the line in 2 of them. The other being against a very poor England team.

In the 2020 6Ns they came 5th, only beating Italy. In the Autumn Nations Cup they only managed to beat Georgia. We beat them very comfortably in Dublin (32-9).

I’ve seen no evidence to date that Pivac can give them that same lift that Gatland was capable of providing.

With regards the half-backs, I’d be curious to know why you think theirs shade ours.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556100#Comment_118556100

Was this really you, molloyjh?!

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558645#Comment_118558645

It was. Does it not sound like my usual optimistic self!?

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558586#Comment_118558586

They pushed SA pretty close in the AI's and weren't behind until a 73rd minute try so I think that'd evidence of it. The 6 Nations, they definitely rode their luck, but they also took their chances when they came too. Tthe England performance was a really good one. And England were poor, in particular their penalty count was crazy across the tournament iirc, but we've seen ourselves how one performance against them can be a catalyst for better things.

With regards the half-backs, if I had to pick a pairing, I'd go for Williams and Sexton. The 4 are all quality players but I think Biggar is closer in quality to Sexton than JGP is to Williams.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558718#Comment_118558718

I didn’t see that game, but SA finished 3rd in the RC last year only beating Argentina twice and NZ once by 2 in a dead rubber last game. Australia beat them home and away (and comfortably enough at home too).

It’s also worth noting that Wales were behind to Fiji until the final quarter and needed a red and two yellows to get on top. They were very poor that day. They were annihilated by NZ a few weeks before too.

Im not saying they are a bad team, but you can probably count on one hand the number of good performances they have had under Pivac. Maybe I’ll end up eating my words this weekend, but I doubt it tbh. These truisms tend to be true until they aren’t. And I’m not sure this one re Wales still applies.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558816#Comment_118558816

To be fair, they were missing a load of 1st team guys vs NZ due to the scheduling.

I largely agree with your overall point tho; I think overall there has been a regression under Pivac (and he's rode his luck) and expect us to be fairly comfortable on Saturday.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557769#Comment_118557769

If we dont put 40+ on them I would be disappointed. This mindset of not liking to be favourites is tiresome. Move on. Beat them well. Score after score. Keep the foot down. Leinster have been ruthless in the European Cup. Utterly ruthless. Let's do the same.

Let them beat us and not we beat ourselves.

EachSmallChime

The Carty and Carbery conversation is getting derailed by who is a better player.

No point talking about who is better at their best because Carbery is not at his best, recovering from injury. He's a proven international and arguably the better player but he's also made of glass and hasn't played in weeks. If Sexton is injured after 10 mins, it would terrify me to see Carbery come on.

For me, it's obvious that we bench Carty for Wales, give him game time, and see what he does with it (he has earned that). Then get Carbery fit to start Italy, maybe more bench time late in the competition. Basically, get him fit to play proper late-season rugby for Munster and the NZ tour.

If that doesn't work out, we'll hopefully at least know what Carty is made of on the international stage and if it's realistic to have him in RWC plans.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559069#Comment_118559069

Carty has earned the chance to show what he can do in camp. Not in a Test match. Proving he can’t deliver what the coaches want from him in camp is what will or won’t get him selected for games.

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558881#Comment_118558881

We've put 40 points on Wales I think once ever, we should be beating them and are strong favourites but being disappointed if we don't score 40? Bit OTT imo.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559069#Comment_118559069

Carbery is not at his best, recovering from injury.

He had an injury free spell from February to December and showed nothing.

Carbery is the better rugby player but Carty is a better out half

EachSmallChime

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559102#Comment_118559102

Fair, and I didn't mean to imply he's entitled to a cap. And we're obviously all talking here with no insight into team training.

I do think that for this weekend, it makes more sense to bench the fit, in-form player instead of the returning-from-injury, no-recent-form player even if we accept he's a better player with more experience.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559150#Comment_118559150

He's shown enough to keep his spot as second-choice at out-half.

Like, since Jackson's departure, Carbery has been nailed-on second choice and we've had Burns, Carty, Byrne and Byrne all have a crack at it, but none of them have even been able to establish themselves as third choice, let alone displace Carbery as second-choice.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559106#Comment_118559106

I'm setting myself up for a fall but......... Whatever happens, happens. I can't change it..

Optimistic.