How much can we borrow?

mcsean2163

Just heard Stephen Donnelly saying we're going to keep spending as long as it takes.

Gross national debt at €223 billion now.

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

What's the the figure that causes us to go bust?

L1011

There is no figure if the ECB continues its support programmes.

Harry Palmr

One million dollars.

Money is cheap, the policy is one that makes monitorists wince. Policy is to print in a world that is effectively on top of inflation due to economies of scale and endless technological development which means a piece of produce will be continue to be cheaper and better in a year, every year in a Moore's Law sort of way.

People need to stop worrying about borrowing.

Brussels Sprout

There is a big difference between now and 10 years ago. If you recall in 2010 the critical factor in meaning that we needed to go to the IMF is that it was becoming impossible for us as a country to borrow money in the usual way - via the bond markets. The yield required on Irish bonds back then was hitting 10% which would have overwhelmed us.

The big change began in 2012 when the ECB, under Mario Draghi started to purchase government bonds directly - quantitative easing. That propped up the entire market. The ECB have the power to create currency so they could essentially create it and transfer it to EuroZone countries in exchange for government bonds. Greek bonds alone dropped from over 30% in 2012 to 6% in 2014 and 1% a year ago.

There was a further development this year after Covid hit. Up until that point each government issued their own bonds but after many negotiations a new mutual Corona bond was created.

The EU met with huge demand for an issue of new coronavirus-related bonds on Tuesday, with bankers saying the sale had received the largest ever order book in global bond markets.

The deal forms the start of a borrowing binge that will make Brussels one of the region’s biggest debt issuers. Investors placed bids for more than €233bn, far exceeding the €17bn of bonds on offer, according to one of the banks arranging the deal. Buyers were drawn by the relatively high yields on the bonds, which came with 10-year and 20-year maturities, and offered more income for investors than the eurozone’s safest government debt.

The sale is the first under the EU’s €100bn SURE programme, which will provide loans to support member states’ efforts to keep workers in jobs during the pandemic. Brussels will ramp up its debt issuance next year as it funds the larger €750bn coronavirus recovery package agreed in July.

link

rossie1977

Well we paid roughly €4 billion last year on debt servicing and government received roughly €90 billion in revenue

Atlantic Dawn

They should borrow €50billion more and use it exclusively for majoy infrastucture projects.

mcsean2163

We're already the third most indebted nation per capita in the world.

Any thoughts to what would happen if when the debt has to be paid, the interest rates were higher, e.g. 5%. and government revenues were lower.

Geuze

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

They should borrow €50billion more and use it exclusively for majoy infrastucture projects.

Where would we find the builders?

The problem isn't really a lack of finance, it's a lack of skilled staff.

Arthur Daley

'This time it's different......'

Leg End Reject

Any mention of a soft landing yet?

ice.cube

Agreed that there is no figure while the ECB keeps the printers firing. Looks like the the "whatever it takes" plan will be in place for the foreseeable future across the EU & US.

While 'cheap' money will be around for some time to come, I would want the government to be quite prudent and get control of the national debt long term. Kicking the can down the road will only get us so far.

Harry Palmr

If money is for growth and not current spending (thought it is right now obviously) then it's not a problem, an economy that's well run and invests well in education and future tech infrastructure will easily be able to keep up the payments.

Brussels Sprout

mcsean2163 wrote: »

We're already the third most indebted nation per capita in the world.

Any thoughts to what would happen if when the debt has to be paid, the interest rates were higher, e.g. 5%. and government revenues were lower.

Well you have to ask yourself the question, why would the interest rates be higher? Typically Central Banks increase interest rates in order to make borrowing money more expensive which in turn is to take the heat out of a rapidly growing economy. This is to protect against the effects of inflation.

By all accounts the bigger concern right now is actually the polar opposite problem - deflation. Think about that. in 2008 inflation was at the target rate of 2% and the ECB base interest rate was at 4%. Inflation hasn't hit 2% since.

At first they dropped the base rate to 1% and eventually 0%. That didn't make inflation hit 2%. In addition to that they've literally been pumping money into the system for the last 8 years and the current rate of inflation in the Eurozone is actually negative.

I guess what I'm saying is that there is no pathway to the exact scenario that you have outlined above from where we are at presently, which is precisely why the likes of Philip Lane at the ECB are more concerned about deflation right now.

"Inflation remains far below the aim and there has been only partial progress in combating the negative impact of the pandemic on projected inflation dynamics," Professor Lane said in a blog post.

"It should be abundantly clear that there is no room for complacency," he stated.

Translation: "We're not stopping the printing presses anytime soon"

link

Atlantic Dawn

Geuze wrote: »

Where would we find the builders?

The problem isn't really a lack of finance, it's a lack of skilled staff.

Plenty of large multinational building companies would be available for large contracts.

Charles Babbage

Specifically, with vaccines on the way and a realistic prospect of the economy recovering by the end of 2021 then there is no problem borrowing for that period. The Irish economy can grow and will recover. Now if the government finances did not largely balance up after that then you might have a problem.

ice.cube

Harry Palmr wrote: »

If money is for growth and not current spending (thought it is right now obviously) then it's not a problem, an economy that's well run and invests well in education and future tech infrastructure will easily be able to keep up the payments.

Within reason IMO. An Oireachtas report from April of this year highlights that while interest rates are unusually low by history standards, the effect of rising interest rates would be quite significant. Any large investments will need to be well thought out and generate a measurable ROI. Of course if you can grow the economy, not only your ability to pay increases but also the % of debt reduces. I am all for investing but investing prudently.

Again no sign of interest rates increasing anytime soon, however I would like the country to be in a good position to react should it happen.


https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2020/2020-04-21_national-debt-an-overview_en.pdf

beachhead

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Just heard Stephen Donnelly saying we're going to keep spending as long as it takes.

Gross national debt at €223 billion now.

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

What's the the figure that causes us to go bust?

Irish National Debt is 203,323,506,700 according to worldebtclocks.com

beachhead

20 billion offloaded for now to some sucker

Brussels Sprout

Arthur Daley wrote: »

'This time it's different......'

Ask yourself the question - What finally ended the EuroZone crisis?

Or how about - How was it that post-crash unemployment peaked in the USA in 2010 but it didn't peak in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland or Italy until 2014?

The answer to the first question is not Austerity.

The answer to the second question is that the Fed starting buying bonds in November 2008. The ECB didn't start until 2012.


Are people advocating that we go on a suicide mission of trying to balance our massive current account shortfall through austerity for fear of taking on additional debt at this time? I'd argue that that would be a deliberate act of self-harm made all the more futile by the record low cost of borrowing money.

This time it's not different. We all need to learn from the mistakes of the last recovery and not try and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps needlessly deepening and extending a recession.

Geuze

beachhead wrote: »

Irish National Debt is 203,323,506,700 according to worldebtclocks.com

I suggest ignoring random websites like that, and using official data from the NTMA and CSO.

rossie1977

If you were making €90k a year a €200k mortgage wouldn't be that excessive.

The US brings in about $3.5 trillion a year and their national debt is $27 trillion

ice.cube

rossie1977 wrote: »

If you were making €90k a year a €200k mortgage wouldn't be that excessive.

The US brings in about $3.5 trillion a year and their national debt is $27 trillion

Which will eventually see the dollar being removed as the world reserve currency once a suitable alternative comes along.

For 2020, yes they brought in around $3.3 trillion but spent $6.6 trillion! The Fed are unable to take their foot of the pedal.

Interesting times ahead.

mcsean2163

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Well you have to ask yourself the question, why would the interest rates be higher? Typically Central Banks increase interest rates in order to make borrowing money more expensive which in turn is to take the heat out of a rapidly growing economy. This is to protect against the effects of inflation.

By all accounts the bigger concern right now is actually the polar opposite problem - deflation. Think about that. in 2008 inflation was at the target rate of 2% and the ECB base interest rate was at 4%. Inflation hasn't hit 2% since.

At first they dropped the base rate to 1% and eventually 0%. That didn't make inflation hit 2%. In addition to that they've literally been pumping money into the system for the last 8 years and the current rate of inflation in the Eurozone is actually negative.

I guess what I'm saying is that there is no pathway to the exact scenario that you have outlined above from where we are at presently, which is precisely why the likes of Philip Lane at the ECB are more concerned about deflation right now.



Translation: "We're not stopping the printing presses anytime soon"

link

I was reading a while back that the fiscally conservative more Eastern eu countries will not tolerate the current circumstances forever.

Not to mention that rewarding reckless spending and punishing nations with balanced budgets sounds crazy. Imagine if you work hard and pay your bills while your neighbour sits around doing nothing borrowing borrowing year after year. You say stuff like hard work is its own reward and someday they'll have to pay but they never pay. There's either justice or a corruption of the industrious. If justice, then we're in for a serious reckoning, if the later the EU as a whole is in big trouble.

Brussels Sprout

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I was reading a while back that the fiscally conservative more Eastern eu countries will not tolerate the current circumstances forever.

Not to mention that rewarding reckless spending and punishing nations with balanced budgets sounds crazy. Imagine if you work hard and pay your bills while your neighbour sits around doing nothing borrowing borrowing year after year. You say stuff like hard work is its own reward and someday they'll have to pay but they never pay. There's either justice or a corruption of the industrious. If justice, then we're in for a serious reckoning, if the later the EU as a whole is in big trouble.

I have 3 question for you:

1. Who has been spending recklessly?
2. Who's going to balance their budget this year?
3. What's your alternative solution?

Xtrail14

Borrow away let the next generation pay for it. Money is cheap.

Arthur Daley

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Ask yourself the question - What finally ended the EuroZone crisis?

Or how about - How was it that post-crash unemployment peaked in the USA in 2010 but it didn't peak in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland or Italy until 2014?

The answer to the first question is not Austerity.

The answer to the second question is that the Fed starting buying bonds in November 2008. The ECB didn't start until 2012.


Are people advocating that we go on a suicide mission of trying to balance our massive current account shortfall through austerity for fear of taking on additional debt at this time? I'd argue that that would be a deliberate act of self-harm made all the more futile by the record low cost of borrowing money.

This time it's not different. We all need to learn from the mistakes of the last recovery and not try and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps needlessly deepening and extending a recession.

Cutting spending to reflect the lower tax base is not austerity.

So called right wing or conservative politicians would recognise as Thatcher had to in the late 70s that we can't keep going on like this. Cutting your cloth to suit your purse is called common sense, not austerity.

Not getting perennial pay rises and cutting your sky sports subscription is not austerity.
Building up from the second world war with cities flattened and making the sacrifices to generate real wealth for investment, or the hunger and unemployment of the 1930s, that was austerity.

Brussels Sprout

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Cutting spending to reflect the lower tax base is not austerity.

So called right wing or conservative politicians would recognise as Thatcher had to in the late 70s that we can't keep going on like this. Cutting your cloth to suit your purse is called common sense, not austerity.

Not getting perennial pay rises and cutting your sky sports subscription is not austerity.
Building up from the second world war with cities flattened and making the sacrifices to generate real wealth for investment, or the hunger and unemployment of the 1930s, that was austerity.

Ok. What would you cut to make up the (at least) €21 Billion hole in the budget this year?

Here are sample outlays to put that figure into perspective:

• Budget of the Department of Education and Skills: €11 Billion
• Total Public Pension cost €7.7 Billion (2018 figure)
• Budget of the Department of Transport: €3.5 Billion

Arthur Daley

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Ok. What would you cut to make up the (at least) €21 Billion hole in the budget this year?

Here are sample outlays to put that figure into perspective:

• Budget of the Department of Education and Skills: €11 Billion
• Total Public Pension cost €7.7 Billion (2018 figure)
• Budget of the Department of Transport: €3.5 Billion

We pay highly paid civil servants and politicians to fullfill this role. Not some random punter on a discussion forum. So I won't be going down this particular cul de sac thanks.

But there is no doubt wasted expenditure all over the place. it's interesting that the health service budget is not up for discussion. Presumably because it's considered a sacred cow, but I'd say most people if they are honest saw loads of waste in their own limited dealing with the health service, even before Covid 19. With Covid 19 many other health issues were not acted on during this year, which should have lead to lower costs.

No doubt there is fat within the education budget, and the conservative government is out spending like a drunk on this area again in recent months e.g. various springboard schemes.

Government (local or central) splurging on high rents and buying up properties in private estates is certainly another.

What also gets me about the 'austerity' brigade is that 2018 wasn't a time to make inroads to the debt problem, 2019 wasn't either, and now we are were we are. Let's be honest with ourselves here, there never is a good time to make the tough decisions, is there?

Brussels Sprout

Arthur Daley wrote: »

We pay highly paid civil servants and politicians to fullfill this role. Not some random punter on a discussion forum. So I won't be going down this particular cul de sac thanks.

I hope you weren't standing when you posted that because you would surely have fallen over after making that swerve.

mcsean2163

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I have 3 question for you:

1. Who has been spending recklessly?
2. Who's going to balance their budget this year?
3. What's your alternative solution?

1. The Irish government has for at least 15 years, that's why we are the third most indebted nation in the world.
2. Me.
3.

20 people under the age of 45 died from covid19. I would take levels 4 and 5 off the table and remind nphet that the money has to come from somewhere.

Push to get unemployment down to 5% again and generate a budget surplus.

Haircut on all national debt of 60%. That'll cause problems for a while but it has to be done or our children will really suffer in the future China/ US dollar crisis.

Take the fiscal gambling a lot more seriously and get value for money in the future. Set an example by firing the national children's hospital team and then running a criminal investigation of them. Repeat for the housing guy Brendan Kenny. Fire 🔥🔥 and then run the country properly with full accountability and criminal prosecutions for those that cannot do their jobs

Harry Palmr

Talking about this on Newstalks Taking Stock finance/economics programme. The guest Chris Johns is very much in my corner (or I'm in his!) and railing against the orthodoxy of central bankers, finance ministers and many economists. "Fiscal vigilantes" which is a good term for them.

This time it is different, last time we owed other people as we were strung out to the max on "good time borrowing" in a bubble economy. We were doing pretty well before Covid 19 while also saving massive amounts of money (100bn in our clearing banks) this time we owe ourselves, we are on the cusp of a 4th revolution in technology, energy creation & consumption - that's what we build on.

Brussels Sprout

mcsean2163 wrote: »

1. The Irish government has for at least 15 years, that's why we are the third most indebted nation in the world.
2. Me.

I was asking in the context of Eurozone countries since that's what your previous post seemed to be on about.

If you want to focus only on Ireland - well here were the budget deficits for the past 25 years.



After the crash the governments, with the help of the Troika got the public finances back in order gradually over a number of years until eventually the budget was balanced again for the past few years. Seems like the opposite of reckless to me.

The Celtic Tiger era spending - yes, absolutely that was reckless. The scenario that we are in this year is more akin to where we were in 2010 though. The financial disaster has happened and now we need to ease our way out of it.

It's not possible to get out of this hole without borrowing more money. Trying to do that would do catastrophic harm to the country. It would be similar to a boxer cutting of his leg in order to make weight for a fight.

Arthur Daley

Addiction

ice.cube

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Talking about this on Newstalks Taking Stock finance/economics programme. The guest Chris Johns is very much in my corner (or I'm in his!) and railing against the orthodoxy of central bankers, finance ministers and many economists. "Fiscal vigilantes" which is a good term for them.

This time it is different, last time we owed other people as we were strung out to the max on "good time borrowing" in a bubble economy. We were doing pretty well before Covid 19 while also saving massive amounts of money (100bn in our clearing banks) this time we owe ourselves, we are on the cusp of a 4th revolution in technology, energy creation & consumption - that's what we build on.

Out of interest can you explain 'this time we owe ourselves' piece vs owing other people post 2008?

Harry Palmr

ice.cube wrote: »

Out of interest can you explain 'this time we owe ourselves' piece vs owing other people post 2008?

Sloppy language on my part, but essentially we the public as collective are not much endebted, whereas we certainly were in 2008. The state has its debt but they can borrow for literally nothing and strink debt through growth.

Eric Cartman

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

They should borrow €50billion more and use it exclusively for majoy infrastucture projects.

sadly , while you are right, we have the greens . The Dublin outer ring road to ease m50 traffic and better motorway infrastructure in the north west would be ideal. Extending the luas to the airport - ideal.
One of the few times id support government spending. But not a hope Eamo will allow it. he'd waste it all on cycle lanes to serve people who already have many bus services, the luas and the dart.

ice.cube

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sloppy language on my part, but essentially we the public as collective are not much endebted, whereas we certainly were in 2008. The state has its debt but they can borrow for literally nothing and strink debt through growth.

Fair enough point!

We have seen a huge improvement in this area following the last crisis however still work to be done IMO. We were the 5th most indebted EU country in Q1 2019 in terms of household debt. I would also have some concerns over the people's rainy day fund or the lack thereof. This year was a huge eye-opener for many people regarding savings.

mcsean2163

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I was asking in the context of Eurozone countries since that's what your previous post seemed to be on about.

If you want to focus only on Ireland - well here were the budget deficits for the past 25 years.



After the crash the governments, with the help of the Troika got the public finances back in order gradually over a number of years until eventually the budget was balanced again for the past few years. Seems like the opposite of reckless to me.

The Celtic Tiger era spending - yes, absolutely that was reckless. The scenario that we are in this year is more akin to where we were in 2010 though. The financial disaster has happened and now we need to ease our way out of it.

It's not possible to get out of this hole without borrowing more money. Trying to do that would do catastrophic harm to the country. It would be similar to a boxer cutting of his leg in order to make weight for a fight.

Great graphic, I would argue the seeds were sown in 2004/2005. Unlike a lot of people i kept getting made redundant in the early noughties (electronics). The boom came from electronic manufacturing and fairly awful jobs that were unfit for adult humans. When wages went up and tax breaks ran out the majority of that work left Ireland, China, eastern Europe etc The government wasted that money. We were lucky to keep pharma, intel and automotive.

I never got the easy money like those in construction. I thought €32 billion was a lot of debt.

I agree re spending now but you ignored my last points, no more level 4/5 lockdown. Get to a surplus position and 60% haircut on bondholders.

We're hiding from a problem that's likely a lot worse than coronavirus. If tax harmonisation comes in, we're goosed

Lumen

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Set an example by firing the national children's hospital team and then running a criminal investigation of them. Repeat for the housing guy Brendan Kenny. Fire 🔥🔥 and then run the country properly with full accountability and criminal prosecutions for those that cannot do their jobs

This is "man in the pub" logic which doesn't work in reality.

Firing people and threatening their successors with "criminal prosecution" will only result in an increase in risk aversion, the end result of which is, perversely, less productivity, more arse covering and greater expense, because procurement will shift towards "derisked" contracts which are always more expensive.

mcsean2163

Lumen wrote: »

This is "man in the pub" logic which doesn't work in reality.

Firing people and threatening their successors with "criminal prosecution" will only result in an increase in risk aversion, the end result of which is, perversely, less productivity, more arse covering and greater expense, because procurement will shift towards "derisked" contracts which are always more expensive.

As many have pointed out, the position of always selecting cheapest has failed massively. I'd call it emperor's New clothes logic. Those people were criminally negligent. It's blatantly obvious what should be done to everyone in the private sector and many in the public sector.

Seth Brundle

mcsean2163 wrote: »

As many have pointed out, the position of always selecting cheapest has failed massively. I'd call it emperor's New clothes logic. Those people were criminally negligent. It's blatantly obvious what should be done to everyone in the private sector and many in the public sector.

If they were criminally negligent as you say, what crimes did they commit?

Brussels Sprout

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I agree re spending now but you ignored my last points, no more level 4/5 lockdown. Get to a surplus position and 60% haircut on bondholders.

The bondholder idea is a complete non-runner. Over 40% of Irish government bonds are owned by residents of the country (mostly the Central Bank). Another third of it is owned by the ECB. There isn't some large collection of 38 year old American Hedge Fund managers who own our debt anymore. All of that debt was refinanced at lower rates which is how the ECB and Central Bank own most of it now.

As for the no more lockdown idea - well we can see the finish line of the Pandemic at this stage so it's kind of a moot point. I suspect that we will have one more lockdown period around February. If it's a choice between taking on additional debt to allow that to happen or to run the risk of overwhelming our health service and having thousands of additional deaths on our hands (in the way that USA and many European countries currently are experiencing) then I think it's a no-brainer. No country with our age profile was successfully able to stay open but isolate their older citizens from younger people, so I fail to see the relevance of your comment about under 45s not dying from the virus.

mcsean2163

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If they were criminally negligent as you say, what crimes did they commit?

The crime of losing hundreds of millions through incompetence. People die young and old because the financial cost to save their lives is too much. Literally those decisions are made in hospitals.


A lot of lives could have been saved or houses bought if not for the incompetence in children's hospital project. That's criminal negligence IMHO.

mcsean2163

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The bondholder idea is a complete non-runner. Over 40% of Irish government bonds are owned by residents of the country (mostly the Central Bank). Another third of it is owned by the ECB. There isn't some large collection of 38 year old American Hedge Fund managers who own our debt anymore. All of that debt was refinanced at lower rates which is how the ECB and Central Bank own most of it now.

As for the no more lockdown idea - well we can see the finish line of the Pandemic at this stage so it's kind of a moot point. I suspect that we will have one more lockdown period around February. If it's a choice between taking on additional debt to allow that to happen or to run the risk of overwhelming our health service and having thousands of additional deaths on our hands (in the way that USA and many European countries currently are experiencing) then I think it's a no-brainer. No country with our age profile was successfully able to stay open but isolate their older citizens from younger people, so I fail to see the relevance of your comment about under 45s not dying from the virus.

Apologies, forget about the virus, that's a whole other thing.

Everything else the same. I've been a shareholder in many companies and have suffered massive losses and sometimes made decent gains. Bondholders are in the casino and as soon as a surplus is generated they should be burnt or it's our children that will be getting burnt instead. Pain now not later.


That's my solution.

Anyway this has gone off topic.

How much is too much, when will the lenders stop lending?

LuckyLloyd

Philosophically, they will never stop lending.

Geuze

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/12/debt-denial.html

Does debt matter?

ice.cube

Geuze wrote: »

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/12/debt-denial.html

Does debt matter?

What do you think?

Seth Brundle

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The crime of losing hundreds of millions through incompetence. People die young and old because the financial cost to save their lives is too much. Literally those decisions are made in hospitals.


A lot of lives could have been saved or houses bought if not for the incompetence in children's hospital project. That's criminal negligence IMHO.

So you're confirming that they're not criminally negligent. :rolleyes:

Wanderer78

mcsean2163 wrote:

What's the the figure that causes us to go bust?

Countries rarely go bust, as central banks can never run out of money, private debt is the far more dangerous of the two, as we learned the hard way in 08

FreudianSlippers

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Just heard Stephen Donnelly saying we're going to keep spending as long as it takes.

Gross national debt at €223 billion now.

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

What's the the figure that causes us to go bust?

Please stop thinking about national debt like you think about personal debt. This populist approach to government expenditure is why we have such awful infrastructure.

There is no such thing as too much debt as long as we can service it.

ice.cube wrote: »

Which will eventually see the dollar being removed as the world reserve currency once a suitable alternative comes along.

For 2020, yes they brought in around $3.3 trillion but spent $6.6 trillion! The Fed are unable to take their foot of the pedal.

Interesting times ahead.

Why? IMF already has multi-currency reserve. The USD has historically been one of the most stable currencies and nothing has changed there. US debt is largely short-term, so we'd need to see a massive depression in the US which didn't materially impact other countries to see a realistic reason to move away from the USD as the main currency reserve; but as I said, there are already other reserve currencies.

If we're talking hypothetical in the longer term, maybe crypto could potentially be a new reserve... that's about as realistic as a massive move away from USD in the foreseeable future.

FreudianSlippers

mcsean2163 wrote: »

We're already the third most indebted nation per capita in the world.

Any thoughts to what would happen if when the debt has to be paid, the interest rates were higher, e.g. 5%. and government revenues were lower.

Except, not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Debt:GDP is more important than Debt per capita.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt