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The 11th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread

  • 01-11-2020 6:31pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....

    This year is obviously very different, to put it mildly, to any other year. I personally think that given we are all pretty much marooned in our houses for the foreseeable, and probably to a large extent over Christmas, that there might never be a better (and less inconvenient) time for snow to fall over the Christmas period. Lying snow on the big day and indeed the week up to New Year would discommode far fewer people this year, than would normally be the case and would raise the spirits of many. Indeed it would encourage kids to play outside (being the best we can do for them right now) etc. So as far as I am concerned, bring it on put I realise there will be legitimate counterviews….

    This particular thread turns 11 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

    As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

    The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

    A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .

    The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day.

    At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

    Pressure

    20122512_0100.gif

    Upper Temps at 850 hPa

    20122512_0100.gif

    That shows a very pleasant but horribly mild Christmas day, what one poster some time ago used to call a BBQ Christmas day!

    Hopefully that won't come to pass, and with 55 days to go, there is just about time for things to change!

    As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic from Christmas week in Dublin in 2010. T'would be great to see it repeated this year...

    elKZWGdOHcP20OfaGE_LrnLfJQPn0dlEMfqgDuN4hjL7KfAH0i9pBs4J0wcEA72ZHA0=s128


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 958 ✭✭✭ esposito



    The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year

    Thanks for the above post Rebelbrowser.

    *16 years. Even longer since we had falling snow on Christmas Day!

    Hoping for a cold Christmas for once this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    esposito wrote: »
    Thanks for the above post Rebelbrowser.

    *16 years. Even longer since we had falling snow on Christmas Day!

    Hoping for a cold Christmas for once this year.

    The dangers of copying and pasting from last year!


  • Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ Wine Goddess


    Lovely to see this thread again! Always livens the atmosphere in the run up to Christmas...such as it will be this year......

    I'm hoping for a dumping of snow around the 20th that would be refreshed on Christmas Eve, (a bit like the Guinness ad!) so that the day itself will be very pleasant outside with snow ❄️ and crisp winter sunshine 🌞🌅......

    However what I think we'll get is a fairly average winter's day, temperature in the range of 8-10c with a breeze and some scattered showers.

    We can but dream.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Last Christmas Morning we had lovely frost. It looked very seasonal as we did the parkrun in Sligo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,405 ✭✭✭ Danno


    I don't like the definition of a white Christmas as being "snow falling on December 25th". I'd much rather a few inches of snow on the ground than seeing a wintry flurry going through but giving no cover whatsoever. For me 2010 was as much a white Christmas as 2004 was.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    1995 was a great White Christmas in Castlebar.

    All day eating and drinking and then it started snowing

    Snowball fights on the street and no cars.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    1995 was a great White Christmas in Castlebar.

    All day eating and drinking and then it started snowing

    Snowball fights on the street and no cars.

    Yes. A great Christmas present. Froze were the days! I'd love a heavy snow fall late on Christmas eve that continued all night , so that when i woke up in the morning and looked out the window i'd see several inches of snow on the ground.

    It would be great if mother nature could oblige us this Christmas, especially after this wretched year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,748 ✭✭✭ NickNickleby


    Yes. A great Christmas present. Froze were the days! I'd love a heavy snow fall late on Christmas eve that continued all night , so that when i woke up in the morning and looked out the window i'd see several inches of snow on the ground.

    It would be great if mother nature could oblige us this Christmas, especially after this wretched year.

    This is one of my great childhood memories. We lived in Birmingham, and on Christmas Eve, long before bedtime but after darkness fell, I looked out the window and saw HUGE snowflakes falling. My mother opened the curtains and we watched the snow falling and sticking for a magical evening. Dreams of Santa crunching through the snow on the roof, and somehow getting into the bedroom and leaving our presents at the end of the bed. He must have been good as I was 23 at the time:eek::eek:.. Hahaha, no I was 7, I think it was Christmas 62 (or 63). I also remember going to school in waist high snow after the Christmas holidays.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Just to update this, a more seasonal look to the big day on the CFS at present. It actually shows snow overnight on Christmas Eve but the temps don't really support this. Still, good to see something of interest...

    Upper temps

    20122500_1000.gif

    Snow chart

    20122512_1000.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,597 ✭✭✭✭ Beechwoodspark


    Here’s hoping for a good two week spell around Christmas with

    Heavy snow falls
    Deep lying snow for at least 10 days
    Bright winter sunshine and wonderfully clear crisp air between the snow falls
    Frost and Icicles sparkling in the sun
    Extremely cold day and exceptionally cold night temps

    Now if this happens it will have significant effects on

    Travel and Road safety (do councils have capacity to salt roads etc?) at a busy time of year
    Supply chains for food and retail (can imagine the media hype about no Christmas goods in stores)
    Public Health - elderly, vulnerable, homeless
    Heavy snow falls on infrastructure (power cuts etc)

    So, not a meteorological feature - more society - a sense of community and cooperation throughout the country so we get through it together


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭ daniel_t1409


    Any more updates? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,748 ✭✭✭ NickNickleby


    Well now...

    I was slapped down some years ago on these boards for asking what was deemed to be a stupid question. So I'll risk a post that will definitely be lacking in 'science' according to some. But it comes from a Christmas weather page on a UK site.

    Gavs Weather Vids is the place to go and look at yesterday's offering for the White Christmas forecast.


    Here's a synopsis SNOW! SNOW! and MORE SNOW!


    Now, being honest, its based on something called the CFS (if I'm reading it correctly) which apparently is falling out of favour. But for now, IT'LL DO ME:D. I think Gav has figured out that we all need something to look forward to at the moment.

    Enjoy!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Well now...

    I was slapped down some years ago on these boards for asking what was deemed to be a stupid question. So I'll risk a post that will definitely be lacking in 'science' according to some. But it comes from a Christmas weather page on a UK site.

    Gavs Weather Vids is the place to go and look at yesterday's offering for the White Christmas forecast.


    Here's a synopsis SNOW! SNOW! and MORE SNOW!


    Now, being honest, its based on something called the CFS (if I'm reading it correctly) which apparently is falling out of favour. But for now, IT'LL DO ME:D. I think Gav has figured out that we all need something to look forward to at the moment.

    Enjoy!

    those extra long range CFS models are practically worthless but it was fun to see the snowy Christmas predicted on it yesterday. However we are now back to wall to wall mild zonal Atlantic driven muck all the way through to mid March on today's CFS. Tomorrow it could flip again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,748 ✭✭✭ NickNickleby


    Gonzo wrote: »
    those extra long range CFS models are practically worthless but it was fun to see the snowy Christmas predicted on it yesterday. However we are now back to wall to wall mild zonal Atlantic driven muck all the way through to mid March on today's CFS. Tomorrow it could flip again.

    Dang! could you not have given me a few days happiness in my ignorance (I should have said bliss!) :D.. Still, in one paragraph you've taught me what's the problem with CFS.

    Right, I'm off to burn down the observatory!


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,679 ✭✭✭✭ murpho999


    No chance of a White Christmas according to this well researched an scientific article in the Indo today.

    Terrible journalism that so many people take as gospel.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭ daniel_t1409


    murpho999 wrote: »
    No chance of a White Christmas according to this well researched an scientific article in the Indo today.

    Terrible journalism that so many people take as gospel.
    How can they be that certain about the weather this far out? I wouldn't rule out a WC just yet, even though it's highly and increasingly unlikely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    A fairly cool Xmas day on the CFs today with -4/-5 uppers. Not far off snow weather with some flakes even likely on mountains and higher ground in Ireland and the UK...

    20122512_1800.gif

    20122512_1800.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    So Devon and Cornwall see snow but Newcastle doesnt.

    Must go to bookies quick!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭ daniel_t1409


    Any more updates about this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Sorry, keep meaning to update this but this whole working from home thing involves far more actual work than I had planned!

    CFS today shows mild temps on the big day. Will post tomorrow's CFS hopefully.

    From next week the far reaches of some of the more main stream models will go out as far as Christmas day so we will have a lot more to post then.....


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,207 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    Odds for snow at Dublin in from 10/1 to Sixes. Worth a flutter to make it interesting I would say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Good and bad news here.

    On the bad news front, whilst the mainstream models such as the GFS only still go out 18 or 19 December, they show at that stage mild weather with no chance of cold, let alone snow.

    On the plus side, the CFS, which does go out until 25 December (and then some) shows an easterly regime kicking in from the 19th with a cold run up to the big day and, as per the below charts, a decidedly snowy Christmas eve / day (with basically a rerun of March 2018 between the big day and New Year's)! You'd never know...

    https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/cfs/2020/12/04/basis00/ukuk/t850/20122500_0400.gif


    20122500_0400.gif


    20122500_0400.gif

    Just the -14 uppers here in Cork a few days later!

    20122800_0400.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    current CFS is very wintry and snowy indeed from about the 23rd of December to New Year's Eve, winds screeching in from a long fetch Siberian easterly and -10 to -15 uppers, of course next run will probably be +10C blowtorch south-westerlies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,405 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Gonzo wrote: »
    current CFS is very wintry and snowy indeed from about the 23rd of December to New Year's Eve, winds screeching in from a long fetch Siberian easterly and -10 to -15 uppers, of course next run will probably be +10C blowtorch south-westerlies.

    Another borderline event :rolleyes:















    :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Just to keep this updated. With the big day less than two weeks away we can now stop looking at the cfs and look instead at some of the more main stream models. At this stage the gfs goes out to 27 December and it shows a cool, but certainly not snowy, Xmas day at present. But plenty time yet for that to change and there are still background signals around that suggest a significantly colder Xmas period could yet happen.

    Will update with some charts tomorrow...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Can't post charts but a decidedly cold Xmas day forecast on this mornings GFS with -7 and -8 upper temps covering the country. Indeed a notably cold week afterwards also. No snow forecast but with these upper temperatures you could not rule it out.... fingers crossed we are going to avoid a mild Xmas day as a minimum.

    20122512_1300.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Yes things do look cold around Christmas.
    Still too far out and we are certain now that the week leading up won't be cold just wet.
    We should get a better picture around mid week just too early


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    6z gfs just out repeats the cold Xmas day forecast with snow in the North and northwest...


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    6z gfs just out repeats the cold Xmas day forecast with snow in the North and northwest...

    Of course there is a lot of different charts being shown every run but the cold charts are certainly featuring, the 06Z the coldest so far.

    anim_jai1.gif


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    things are certainly looking better for Christmas Day, we go into a cold northerly which should be a mostly dry and frosty affair, could be some wintry showers on north-western coasts, rain near the coasts and sleet/snow showers inland and on high ground.

    Lots of rain/sleet/snow showers moving down the Irish sea however these are unlikely to affect us other than big shower towers visible off the east coast.

    Could be very similar to the weather we had last weekend with frost and very chilly daytime temperatures. This cold hangs on for a few days and remains mainly dry so frost and even fog could become a problem.

    This could change widely several times between now and Christmas Day as we are still 12 days away.


    GFSOPUK06_300_2.png

    GFSOPUK06_300_5.png

    GFSOPUK06_300_53.png


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