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The 11th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread

Rebelbrowser

Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....

This year is obviously very different, to put it mildly, to any other year. I personally think that given we are all pretty much marooned in our houses for the foreseeable, and probably to a large extent over Christmas, that there might never be a better (and less inconvenient) time for snow to fall over the Christmas period. Lying snow on the big day and indeed the week up to New Year would discommode far fewer people this year, than would normally be the case and would raise the spirits of many. Indeed it would encourage kids to play outside (being the best we can do for them right now) etc. So as far as I am concerned, bring it on put I realise there will be legitimate counterviews….

This particular thread turns 11 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .

The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day.

At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

Pressure

Upper Temps at 850 hPa

That shows a very pleasant but horribly mild Christmas day, what one poster some time ago used to call a BBQ Christmas day!

Hopefully that won't come to pass, and with 55 days to go, there is just about time for things to change!

As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic from Christmas week in Dublin in 2010. T'would be great to see it repeated this year...

elKZWGdOHcP20OfaGE_LrnLfJQPn0dlEMfqgDuN4hjL7KfAH0i9pBs4J0wcEA72ZHA0=s128

elKZWGdOHcP20OfaGE_LrnLfJQPn0dlEMfqgDuN4hjL7KfAH0i9pBs4J0wcEA72ZHA0=s128

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Slashermcguirk

I have said it since November, we will get snow towards Christmas. I can just feel it, such a strange year. I suppose some parts of Ireland have already had snow this month so any extra is a bonus.

I just think that spell between Christmas and new year could produce some white gold.

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I confidently predict a polar low on Xmas day!

Seriously though, the gfs just out looks very promising for some snow between Christmas eve and New Year's.....

Bank it please Rebelbrowser. If we don't get a White Christmas this year i'm holding you personally responsible:)

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

I recall several northerly delivering snow quite widely across the country when I was younger. We had days off school due to them

Unfortunately, we don't seem to get those sort of northerlies any more.

I confidently predict a polar low on Xmas day!

Seriously though, the gfs just out looks very promising for some snow between Christmas eve and New Year's.....

nacho libre

I recall several northerly delivering snow quite widely across the country when I was younger. We had days off school due to them

Unfortunately, we don't seem to get those sort of northerlies any more.

Gonzo

a northerly can produce snow showers through alot of Scotland, down the eastern side of the UK and into parts of Northern Ireland so there could well be a white Christmas in parts of the UK. Unfortunately a northerly is pretty much useless for the republic of Ireland in terms of getting decent snow showers most of the time, maybe parts of Donegal can tap into those but Donegal is usually closer to the high pressure to our west and that too kills off the showers.

nacho libre

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hi Pa

Gav kinda tells ppl “what they want to hear”.

For me he isn’t a reliable source

A lot of forecasters try to give people hope at this time of year. Also to be fair based on some of the runs over the last few days, a white christmas in some parts of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland is certainly possible.
So it isn't really a case of him telling people what they want to hear.

Rebelbrowser

Good consensus between the gfs and ecm this morning on a cold outbreak from Christmas Eve. Maybe, just maybe.....

Beechwoodspark

Hi Pa

Gav kinda tells ppl “what they want to hear”.

For me he isn’t a reliable source

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZCMcwhRwp8

Gavs live stream asks "could We Have UK Snow For Christmas?", just going through the shoutouts for the next few minutes before gertting into the Christmas . . .

Gonzo

things are certainly looking better for Christmas Day, we go into a cold northerly which should be a mostly dry and frosty affair, could be some wintry showers on north-western coasts, rain near the coasts and sleet/snow showers inland and on high ground.

Lots of rain/sleet/snow showers moving down the Irish sea however these are unlikely to affect us other than big shower towers visible off the east coast.

Could be very similar to the weather we had last weekend with frost and very chilly daytime temperatures. This cold hangs on for a few days and remains mainly dry so frost and even fog could become a problem.

This could change widely several times between now and Christmas Day as we are still 12 days away.

Meteorite58

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

6z gfs just out repeats the cold Xmas day forecast with snow in the North and northwest...

Of course there is a lot of different charts being shown every run but the cold charts are certainly featuring, the 06Z the coldest so far.

Rebelbrowser

6z gfs just out repeats the cold Xmas day forecast with snow in the North and northwest...

JanuarySnowstor

Yes things do look cold around Christmas.
Still too far out and we are certain now that the week leading up won't be cold just wet.
We should get a better picture around mid week just too early

Rebelbrowser

Can't post charts but a decidedly cold Xmas day forecast on this mornings GFS with -7 and -8 upper temps covering the country. Indeed a notably cold week afterwards also. No snow forecast but with these upper temperatures you could not rule it out.... fingers crossed we are going to avoid a mild Xmas day as a minimum.

Rebelbrowser

Just to keep this updated. With the big day less than two weeks away we can now stop looking at the cfs and look instead at some of the more main stream models. At this stage the gfs goes out to 27 December and it shows a cool, but certainly not snowy, Xmas day at present. But plenty time yet for that to change and there are still background signals around that suggest a significantly colder Xmas period could yet happen.

Will update with some charts tomorrow...

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

current CFS is very wintry and snowy indeed from about the 23rd of December to New Year's Eve, winds screeching in from a long fetch Siberian easterly and -10 to -15 uppers, of course next run will probably be +10C blowtorch south-westerlies.

Another borderline event :rolleyes:

Gonzo

current CFS is very wintry and snowy indeed from about the 23rd of December to New Year's Eve, winds screeching in from a long fetch Siberian easterly and -10 to -15 uppers, of course next run will probably be +10C blowtorch south-westerlies.

Rebelbrowser

Good and bad news here.

On the bad news front, whilst the mainstream models such as the GFS only still go out 18 or 19 December, they show at that stage mild weather with no chance of cold, let alone snow.

On the plus side, the CFS, which does go out until 25 December (and then some) shows an easterly regime kicking in from the 19th with a cold run up to the big day and, as per the below charts, a decidedly snowy Christmas eve / day (with basically a rerun of March 2018 between the big day and New Year's)! You'd never know...

https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/cfs/2020/12/04/basis00/ukuk/t850/20122500_0400.gif

Just the -14 uppers here in Cork a few days later!

Larbre34

Odds for snow at Dublin in from 10/1 to Sixes. Worth a flutter to make it interesting I would say.

Rebelbrowser

Sorry, keep meaning to update this but this whole working from home thing involves far more actual work than I had planned!

CFS today shows mild temps on the big day. Will post tomorrow's CFS hopefully.

From next week the far reaches of some of the more main stream models will go out as far as Christmas day so we will have a lot more to post then.....

daniel_t1409

Any more updates about this?

pauldry

So Devon and Cornwall see snow but Newcastle doesnt.

Must go to bookies quick!

Rebelbrowser

A fairly cool Xmas day on the CFs today with -4/-5 uppers. Not far off snow weather with some flakes even likely on mountains and higher ground in Ireland and the UK...

daniel_t1409

murpho999 wrote: »

No chance of a White Christmas according to this well researched an scientific article in the Indo today.

Terrible journalism that so many people take as gospel.

How can they be that certain about the weather this far out? I wouldn't rule out a WC just yet, even though it's highly and increasingly unlikely.

murpho999

No chance of a White Christmas according to this well researched an scientific article in the Indo today.

Terrible journalism that so many people take as gospel.

NickNickleby

Gonzo wrote: »

those extra long range CFS models are practically worthless but it was fun to see the snowy Christmas predicted on it yesterday. However we are now back to wall to wall mild zonal Atlantic driven muck all the way through to mid March on today's CFS. Tomorrow it could flip again.

Dang! could you not have given me a few days happiness in my ignorance (I should have said bliss!)

.. Still, in one paragraph you've taught me what's the problem with CFS.

Right, I'm off to burn down the observatory!

Gonzo

NickNickleby wrote: »

Well now...

I was slapped down some years ago on these boards for asking what was deemed to be a stupid question. So I'll risk a post that will definitely be lacking in 'science' according to some. But it comes from a Christmas weather page on a UK site.

Gavs Weather Vids is the place to go and look at yesterday's offering for the White Christmas forecast.

Here's a synopsis SNOW! SNOW! and MORE SNOW!

Now, being honest, its based on something called the CFS (if I'm reading it correctly) which apparently is falling out of favour. But for now, IT'LL DO ME:D. I think Gav has figured out that we all need something to look forward to at the moment.

Enjoy!

those extra long range CFS models are practically worthless but it was fun to see the snowy Christmas predicted on it yesterday. However we are now back to wall to wall mild zonal Atlantic driven muck all the way through to mid March on today's CFS. Tomorrow it could flip again.

NickNickleby

Well now...

I was slapped down some years ago on these boards for asking what was deemed to be a stupid question. So I'll risk a post that will definitely be lacking in 'science' according to some. But it comes from a Christmas weather page on a UK site.

Gavs Weather Vids is the place to go and look at yesterday's offering for the White Christmas forecast.

Here's a synopsis SNOW! SNOW! and MORE SNOW!

Now, being honest, its based on something called the CFS (if I'm reading it correctly) which apparently is falling out of favour. But for now, IT'LL DO ME:D. I think Gav has figured out that we all need something to look forward to at the moment.

Enjoy!

daniel_t1409

Any more updates?

Beechwoodspark

Here’s hoping for a good two week spell around Christmas with

Heavy snow falls
Deep lying snow for at least 10 days
Bright winter sunshine and wonderfully clear crisp air between the snow falls
Frost and Icicles sparkling in the sun
Extremely cold day and exceptionally cold night temps

Now if this happens it will have significant effects on

Travel and Road safety (do councils have capacity to salt roads etc?) at a busy time of year
Supply chains for food and retail (can imagine the media hype about no Christmas goods in stores)
Public Health - elderly, vulnerable, homeless
Heavy snow falls on infrastructure (power cuts etc)

So, not a meteorological feature - more society - a sense of community and cooperation throughout the country so we get through it together