Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

It's six years since the beef protests where we shut down the meat plants. The processors were talking of a beef price of 3.2/3.3 per kg. We protested we closed them down held the line at 3.4/ kg got QA up from 12c/ kg to 20c/ kg and hot 12c/kg QA on O- and we got a smaller QA on over 30 month cattle. It put a certain amount of manners on the processors.

Five years later we are at over double that. If we can hold the base at a line above 7/kg it will be a good year. Numbers will be in processors favor for the next 4-6 weeks. After that on cheap grass and 3-4 kgs finishing costs 1.5-1.8/ day with LW gains of over a kg a day. That is when we begin to squeeze them again. Numbers will tighten. I expect the 90K shortage will be squeezed into the months from Late June to October. It will not be 90k. There was a lower kill and weights last year due to weather. I expect that weights will recover this year.

Shortfall will be about 2.5k/ week for that time period. Lads that fed on in February have a falling knife now to catch

farawaygrass

I saw this on Facebook. Would they have went as much, more or less in the factory? Kill out of mart weight for these, would it be 52%?

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379142#Comment_123379142

At 52% ko they’d be 296 kgs dead.

€7.70 base price plus 0.20 qa plus 0.30 Angus bonus and they’re €8.20. Average them as O= and you’ll be at €8.02.

296 x €8.02 = €2,374.

If they’re well fed they could kill 53-54% and average O+ and you’re over €2,450.

At 52% O= and €7.60 base price they’re €2,345.

If the farmer selling them was QA’d it’s guaranteed he’d have done better in the factory.

If non-QA’d he done better than he would have in the factory as he would have lost the 50 cent qa and Angus bonus and possibly have to take 10 or 20 cent less base price which would have left him around €2,200.

farawaygrass

Were them type of cattle being sold flat for up on €8 last week?

farawaygrass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379237#Comment_123379237

great breakdown dbk1

KAMG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379283#Comment_123379283

Yes. We got 8e for those exact type bullocks last Thursday. Now, they were booked in from the previous Wednesday, as soon as word started going out about the price drop. So, we were doing well to get the 8e. We would be small fish in the grand scheme of things.

They averaged 280 kg. Poor enough really but they were small cattle from a local dairy man. All out of FRX cows. All 3s on the fat score.

Conversations 3

Good analysis @DBK1

Is the mart the place to bring finished U grades if price is dropping?

Surely if you've good cattle you can still push for more.

agriman27

Hard to tell, depends on the mart imo, some marts have more factory buyers than others. I saw a heifer in ballyjamesduff mart today 880kg made €3050, if the factory gave €7.50 she’d make €3500

Siamsa Sessions

Mart versus factory is a regular debate on here. I can't remember who but someone posted a bullet point summary last week.

My only idea/plan is to compare the two options as best you can. See what similar cattle to yours are making in the nearest mart for a few weeks. Then ring the factory agent and get a price off him. Make a decision, send them one way or the other, and wait for the cheque. Have a few pints someplace that night.

When you get home from the pub, post the results on here and then join in the usual "constructive disagreement" again 😂

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379567#Comment_123379567

I’d an R+ heifer weighing 770 kgs kill out at 432 kgs dead last week, she made just €3,500. There’s no way she’d stand on a mart scales at any more than 740kgs. I’d have needed around €4.70 liveweight in a mart to match that.

Even at €7.50 base price she’d be €7.76 with grading and QA she’d make €3,350 or around €4.50 liveweight.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379542#Comment_123379542

The mart is always an option and does seem to be nearer to factory prices for U grades than any other type of stock but @Siamsa Sessions gave the right advice above.

Get a quote from the factory, weigh your stock, calculate what you think they’ll make on the factory and then look through the mart catalogues and see are your local marts making the right money for your type of stock.

At the minute the marts are what’s keeping a floor on the factory prices, too many lads selling below factory value so the factories have no need to rise prices and instead are able to drop them.

If all the finishers turned down the lower factory quotes and no one brought a factory fit animal to a mart they’d have no choice but to up the prices to get cattle out but as long as they’re available in the marts the factories have nothing to worry about.

mr.stonewall

The more I think about this, is it an earlier empty of the feedlots to try to fit in a other cycle of cattle. Back the farmers cattle up, put a bit of shakes in the trade and watch the store price drop. Makes it easier to encourage another roll off the dice for the big shed men

Conversations 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379759#Comment_123379759

Yea, bang on again.

That's exactly what I'll be doing this week, I still think if the cattle are finished the factory pays better.

I've been keeping an eye on similar animals to mine lately and it's hit and miss in the mart but I suppose at least you can take them home again.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123380076#Comment_123380076

Shed cattle cost money to finish. There will not be a lot of stores available especially heavy stores capable of being finished in 70-100 days. Grass is the game now until lads start selling stores from August on.

Grass men are not greedy I be quite happy if as they tighten from June on if base price rises to the 7.5-7.7 mark. I cannot see an Autumn glut however those could be famous last words.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123379237#Comment_123379237

I might not be as strong as you with the killout. I would be saying 51/51.5% I think I can see a few back bones. However you also have to factor in selling costs. Most marts will be charging you 35-50 euro to sell them. If you go to the factory it's about 16 euro per head for AA cattle

After that it a matter of factoring in difference in transport costs and risk of having to bring home. The only way that seller won is if he was not QA but he was.

They are lot 11 in Dungarvan yesterday ,they are on LSL. If you have premium you can have a gawk at them. I am not used to the camera there after it's very close to the cattle and I taught there was a couple O-'s in them. If he had moved last week to the factory your base would be correct. What is the base this week I am not sure

There was a Friesian bullock lot 6B 570 kgs made 2200 and I taught we might have a winer there but he was a flaker. He was 13 months I say he spend a while hidden in the straw before he was found. O+ at least even with dodgy grading. At O+ @ a base of 7.5 he woukd have made 2252. He would have killed 52%.

6A was an AA 520 kgs same owner as the Fr I suspect. He made 2080. He woukd be borderline as to whether he would make the same this week in the factory.

lstmd

how long is the AA bonus paid and is it phased out or does it stop on a specific date?

massey 265

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123383485#Comment_123383485

30 cent a angus spring bonus paid from week 24 th march and ends on week 24th may for 2025,prob be an autumn bonus from oct to december as well.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123383485#Comment_123383485

In the last 4 or 5 years I’ve always got the Angus bonus no matter what the time of year is.

Anto_Meath

Yes there is a 10 cent AA bonus for everyone all year around, it costs €6 to get that bonus. But in some supplier groups if you commit to send cattle between certain dates there there is a 20 & 30 cent bonus. But as far as I know you have to let the factory know in advance how many you will be killing and when you plan to do so. I have gotten asked to join it a few times but never have as I don't finish cattle in the spring.

massey 265

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2025 a angus spring bonus

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384437#Comment_123384437

It’s never less than 20 cent in any of the midlands factories, doesn’t cost a cent to the farmer to get it and I’ve never had to inform the factory of numbers.

It’s 30 cent at the moment and you don’t even have to ask about it, it’s automatically applied regardless of who you are. You don’t have to be in any scheme or groups.

Could be different in other parts of the country but that would only be if ye let them away with it.

Anyone with Angus or HEX to kill make sure and tell your factory agent you want the aa or he bonus and if you’re not getting it tell them you’ll head to the midlands factories instead where you will get it even if you’ve only 1 animal to go.

WoozieWu

who funds these bonuses

limo_100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384588#Comment_123384588

the society’s.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384588#Comment_123384588

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384812#Comment_123384812

The consumer. AA beef is sold at a 2-5kg premium over other beef depending on the product specification. The higher spring and autum/winter premium is to encourage supply when the product is tight

limo_100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384833#Comment_123384833

There making a fortune a friend used to work in the Hereford society said they are generating more money than they can spend bank accounts well over a million in free cash

Aly Daly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384530#Comment_123384530

I can confirm that this bonus does not automatically apply in a large factory on the Dublin/Meath border which is part of a group.

WoozieWu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384812#Comment_123384812

how does it work

do the societies get a kickback from the processor and the supermarkets

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123384986#Comment_123384986

The society get 6 euro from the slaughter price from AA cattle and 5 euro from HE's. The processors pay the bonus onto the agreed base. The meat is sold at a premium in supermarkets to even there specially selected ranges.

WoozieWu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123385243#Comment_123385243

so it's the processor who pays the bonus

thanks

Anto_Meath

@Aly Daly I would be killing there from July to September, I do get the 10 cent on AAx & HEx but that is all. Hence my comment above where I thought you needed to be a group. I know they sometimes have a guy in checking the cattle before they are killed to ensure they are correct AAx cattle, I had a brown CH bullock once (AAx on the card) and they wouldn't pay it.. yet I ve had Frs with AAx on the card and got it...

HHH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123385252#Comment_123385252

Yes, you generally get 30c on AA and 20c on HE in my experience.

For a 300kg in-spec carcass, an AA would get €90 less €6 per animal set fee so €84 extra.

For a 300kg in-spec carcass, an HE would get €60 less €5 per animal set fee so €55 extra.

Processor pays the bonus, fee goes back to society.

From memory the AA society i'm in was free to join at the time.

There a few Hereford societies that cost around €100 to join each, depending on where you sell you cattle.

Different societies have different rules so worth asking your agent about them. I was roasted previously on a 420kg AA carcass. Super bullock at the time. Factory said anything over 400kg doesn't qualify and they hadn't told me the rules.