Beef price tracker 2

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373157#Comment_123373157

over the year they average 25 percent of the kill. With planning ahead for a a few weeks or month they could increase that average a little for that oeriod (but will obviously suffer with reduced kill in the period after).

If they have renegotiated contracts with super markets that’s key to the pressure they are under. Some market stabilisation is needed for both sides realistically

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373249#Comment_123373249

You and @weatherbyfoxer should keep making your points. I be the Lone Ranger again.

Lads with Sucklers gain when prices raise but lose when prices fall as they have no input to reduce there price to. 10 days ago they were thinking 9/kg for cattle end of May when flat prices were 8.3/ kg. Now it's a base of maybe 7-7.4 possibly. So an all in price 7.5/7.6, it's still a great price. However between the dream and reality is 600 euro, and 300 if it stabilised at 8.3 flat.

I made this point two months ago about flat prices the fall is exasperated by them when it happens. TBH I was starting to dream myself of a flat price especially for my Friesians of maybe 7.8-8/ kg if it had steadied at the higher price. As they say love is blind marriage is an eye opener.

IMO it will be tricky for the next 4-6 weeks. Too many fed cattle on thinking of making a killing in May. A 330 kgs AA carcase will drop 33 euro a week if they drop at 10c/ week along with about 16/ week in feed costs. Only good thing is if they are not stale they are probably putting on 5kgs a week DW, if going stale it probably 2-3 kgs.

If I had FS3- cattle I woukd cool them.and put them to grass. If 3+ or better I be hanging them. It probably stabilise around 7-7.2. As someone said a few week ago we missed 7/kg on the way up I hope we hold on above it on the way down.

IMO July on will be OK if it holds above 7/ kg. Cheap weight gain off grass. Did I mention something about not getting carried away 8-10 weeks back and watch your costs

nearlybreak

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373398#Comment_123373398

base of 7-7.4 where you getting this from cattle making anywhere between 7.6-7.9 and there is still flat deals of over 8

nearlybreak

You are well entitled to your opinions but at least have your facts right and trust me factories are going to be more hungry than ever for cattle soon enough not saying they are going to go to 9 euro or anything but there is serious demand for beef

westeast

I have 500 to 550 Hereford heifers bucket reared .they 23 months old .what are they worth in the mart .will be selling in two weeks time they are in shed i have plenty of feed for them

Robson99

Persorally I expect there to be a real shortage in July / August. A lot of cattle have been fed on and also feedlots prob won't be at capacity.

A lot lot lads getting wound up about 20 / 30 cent more or less from the factories. Lads should be more concerned about how or what they are going to be buying back or how much they are going to cost them. IMO the longer these prices stay at this silly money the closer we are getting to the cliff edge

Anto_Meath

For anyone to be able to stay sane prices need to settle. 8 months ago we are at €5 - €5.5 & lads were delighted with themselves. If God forbid they dropped below €7 now then anyone who bought cattle since Christmas will go bust.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373432#Comment_123373432

I have no dealing with factories or agents at present. I am not sure where the prices are but if processors have decided to pull prices next week you can be guaranteed it will happen. And its BS to say hold for two weeks. If I had cattle ready that had to go and if I was onto a few agents and they allwereat the same lark tgat they were full up I be booking my cattle in but anything FS 3- or worse woukd be going to grass.

If they quote 7.8 base and want them happy days. But the price needs to stabilise somewhere.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373386#Comment_123373386

Feedlots in general control 25% of the kill but not all.of these are processor owned. Sone will be directly contracted some will have looser arrangements. The guys not directly contracted probably got the nod last week and given guaranteed prices for the next few weeks. These same lads will have been supplying at base prices for the last couple months. They will bother the rub of the green from processors.

I hope I am wrong. However look at reality a couple of steaks are now appearing on supermarket shelves @15 euro. Local Supervalu had a pack of specially selected steaks( Inc fillet and ribeye) with two sides( mash potato gratin, mushrooms salad etc) for 15 euro and they were not walking out of the shop

WoozieWu

the wagons have been circled

if kill price is being pulled then why have mart prices held in general or increased for heavy culls and stockbulls

the animals just are not in the system and the uk price continues to rise

the finishers are doom mongering because their edge has been eliminated

cute geoge

The reality is the beef finisher buying short keep cattle with the last few years made more profit in 2-3 months then the man who reared the cattle for 2-3 years ,

I know 1 beef finisher buying to finish in 2/3 months who had war with the meat factory manager when the factories starting rising prices ,as he now no longer could buy stores at his pwn prices and he probably delayed buying expecting prices of stores to drop

Who2

I don’t think mart prices have held. What I’ve seen is a nice pull back in the last fortnight. They need to stabilise. We need a boost every so often to keep optimism up in farming but it’s getting out of hand. Too many are going to get burned .

WoozieWu

cattle with flesh are still rising in price

WoozieWu

they should have profited heavily on stock bought but quite a few are in the same boat as the man in your story and missed the boat

893bet

24k ahead of last year already and alleged 90k less in the system. Are exports of stores also up?

with that level of supply impact to his it’s hard to see a massive deop but the factories have years of experience in control.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373559#Comment_123373559

I am not sure mart prices have or have not held. Last 5 cows Friesians in Listowel last Thursday

805kgs.......2500

785kgs.......2470

810kgs.....…2560

735kgs....…2180

955kgs......…2970.

It seems great money for non QA however with the amount of flesh they would hang 50% of mart weight IMO heavier ones a tad more. At that weight they would grade O-/O= you would have got a flat price because of these flesh. Owner was stupid not to be QA anyway. With no QA he definitely have got 6.8/kg, QA cows like that were making a nice bit o er 7/kg the last ten days. He averaged out 6.2/ kg. Nice touch for the lad that bought them. They were probably shared out.

By the way do not be worrying about us poor finishers assembled these mostly during January and February. There is 22 a mixed bunch probably averaging 250 kgs at present 11 HEX, 6 Fr, 2 SAx, an AA and PI. Inc feed costs, etc they are standing me about 500 each.

20250420_113649.jpg

20250420_113645.jpg

I have about 85 to hang and have the 22 of them and 15 little bullocks bought to replace them not everyone's cup of tea but they are grand

I says

It was always going to happen that prices would settle down. Now it’s up to everyone to call out the shite that is the grid. 4 moves, overage all scutter as seen in the last few months. Them sticks used to beat us are now exactly what they’ve seen to be controlling aspects by the beef cartels.

DBK1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373151#Comment_123373151

Maybe being finishers is what has given them the experience to know and understand the market, the prices and how the factories work?

The factories will always gain control at this time of year because there’s too many things in their favour. Their own feedlots that were filled at Christmas have cattle all fit to go now, shed cattle that farmers don’t have grass for have to be killed, young bulls that have been fed intensively since Christmas will have to go. The dairy men that keep their own stock on to beef (admittedly the numbers doing this are decreasing every year but there’s still a significant amount doing it) will have to go because they need their grass for grazing the cows. The factories know this and will always be able to get some power back at this time of year.

This year then they have the added bonus of lads trying to finish cattle out of sheds that would have traditionally went to grass and now these men are stuck in limbo. They’ve too much feed gone into them to change their minds and let them off to grass now so what do they do?

I let 500kg plus whiteheads and 600kg plus continentally out to grass on Paddy’s day and lads told me I was mad, I’m glad I did now.

It’s all well and good saying hold onto them until the prices rise again and if you’ve only a handful that’s manageable but I know lads here with 100 plus cattle in sheds fit to go now and what are the costs to them of feeding on for another few weeks in the hope of 10 or 20 cent more and then get cut up to 14 cent a kilo between fat score and QA because you’re gone to a 4+?

€7.70 - €7.80 base price is still available at the minute, add 20 cent qa, 20 cent Hereford bonus or 30 cent Angus bonus, and them bonuses are freely available to everyone without needing to be signed up to any scheme, and take away 12 - 18 cent for being O grades and Hereford’s are still coming in at €7.90- €8 and Angus €8-€8.10. If you’ve an r grade in either then you’re back up very close to, or even above, the €8.20 flat price that was available 2 weeks ago.

Rewind now to last Christmas and ask any man that started feeding cattle back then would he have been happy with €7 per kilo when he kills them and he’d have bitten your arm off for it, never mind €8 now and lads telling him to hold on and stay feeding them for a month more and he might get €8.20.

It’s time to be realistic lads, fight for the best base price available, make sure you’re getting the bonuses and if they’re fit to go let them off, it’ll be at least a month before the farmer gets back some control and if they drop them another 10 or 20 cent a week for the next couple of weeks then even when the farmer does get that bit of control back it’s starting from a much lower base.

grass10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373832#Comment_123373832

You sound like a factory man when you are telling us how much better off a non qa farmer would be selling cows in a factory using an example of a few cows in a mart that to say the least is not one of the leading marts price wise, you were already talking down the price of prime cattle today whilst admitting that you don't know what's being currently being paid the factories must be paying you extra money for writing such garbage on a Sunday.

Why not tell us about the real facts which are factory age cattle avaliable cattle numbers are forecast to be 90000 less for this year yet in the first 3 months heifer and steer numbers are up over 30000 young bull numbers are not any issue they are so low and static we are after a large cow cull again this winter and spring large numbers of potential grass cattle are already hung and the factories know all this and put spin stories out to frighten lads e

nearlybreak

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373545#Comment_123373545

you don’t know what the price is at d mo but quote as low as 7 base cmon factories have there tongues out for cattle look at the kill data it’s going to to tighten and it’s world wide issue

WoozieWu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373869#Comment_123373869

bro i finish cattle too and cattle have been finished here annually for generations

the other lads a just trying to frighten people on here

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123373432#Comment_123373432

I came accross the rag yesterday in the in-laws house. Read the beef price section of it. Accordingly to them a few factories were quoting 7.5 the end of last week. I lay odds these were the factories around the edge, Bandon, Slaney, Cahir, Watergrasshill, Nenagh, Rathkeale, Charleville etc. They will not be quoting it to all suppliers but rather to lads with smaller numbers.

By Tuesday/ Wednesday of this week if they have numbers on there side they be quoting 7.4/kg for next week. The big three will use there feedlot and contracted cattle to fill the gaps as they back up the ordinary Joe's cattle. By the end of the week they will be "full up" for the following week and not quoting but you " can book cattle in". Independent processors will have the marts to themselves.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123374089#Comment_123374089

Ya ya ya I know there is 90k less cattle in the system until year end. And I know the UK price is over 9/ kg all in or over a euro ahead of us. However it's ALWAYS our prices are pulled first. I was hoping it would hold until June.but last February lads with cattle 500kgs got a hard on. Even though we had a mild spring they fed cattle on.

Over the last eight weeks processors have renewed contracts to retailers. Pre Christmas they got volumes wrong due to incorrect Bord Bia information. They were livid with Bord Bia. The new contracts will be repriced and volumes reduced.

Last Sunday as they walked to the play off hole Mcilroy's caddy turned to him and said " we would have taken this at the start last Thursday morning".

I am not 100% sure the processors will manage the pull. But I suspect they will.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123374793#Comment_123374793

Yes its a world wide issue. Prices are 40-50% ahead of last year at present here. If they hold at or above 7/kg for May and June they will be 40% ahead of last year. Looking at the rag yesterday Italy and France are 1.3/ kg behind us, Germany a euro and the Netherlands 50c/ kg behind us. All.of these were slightly ahead of us pre Christmas. The US which was running 50-60c/ kg ahead if us is 40c/ kg behind us. Australia and Brazil are over 3.5/ kg behind us.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123374089#Comment_123374089

I am not the only person here telling posters there is a lot of cattle sold in the marts that are making a couple hundred less than factory price. Whatever chance that lad with the cows had it was put them in the ring as one bunch. They were all good fat cows, all the one breed, all similar put them in together and let the buyers fight over them.

epfff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123376240#Comment_123376240

Last week there was value in fleshed cattle in marts if you could get them killed.

The problem I'm having is no one seems to want cattle. I got nothing killed last week and on a promise of 15 this week.

You can talk hold tight and all that but cattle back up very quickly. Once small cattle are cooked it's throwing meal into tank. Maybe if I had big CH blks I could justify but at the moment I'm thinking if beef holds I'll still be down cost of feeding when I do get going.

From looking at the traffic to the local Processors they seem to showing preference for the guys with with the few cattle as it's all jeeps and trailers going in and out.

I think this is to keep the positivity around feeding cattle amongst small farmers that were on verge of retirement/wind down.Processors need to keep them going because they are loyal profitable and like all victims believe all problems are there fault when explained to them by the bully.

grass10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123376240#Comment_123376240

I agree that the farmers should be selling cows in bunches if they are fat and matching I can never figure out why they sell fat cows in singles it suits the few dealers at the ring

In the rag last week it also said that 8.30 flat was being paid for Angus you can pick any piece out of an article to suit a particular agenda the same as picking a mart price for a few lots and saying them lads would have been better in a factory but you can also pick examples every day of some lots doing better in a mart than a factory

epfff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123377418#Comment_123377418

Did it give location for 830?

Have cattle will travel.

Have cattle will give 10c a kg to anyone that can get me 830 flat for aax 0= or better this week

grass10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123377622#Comment_123377622

It didn't say where that was being paid maybe it was earlier last week I'd guess you are probably low 8 now for o grade, bass was bringing down the price so fast that we'd be getting nothing next month I was merely pointing out that you can quote a piece of a newspaper article to suit whatever agenda you have, best of luck with your cattle sales

KAMG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123377622#Comment_123377622

We got 8e flat for those grade AAX bullocks last Thursday. They said it would be 7.80e this week, if we had anymore. We don't. We usually don't finish cattle out of shed, but couldn't resist this year the way things started going after Christmas.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123378086#Comment_123378086

WTF do you get I am bringing down prices. I mearly pointed put the idea of holding cattle being fed in a shed two weeks to see if processors are bluffing is nuts.

@KAMG just posted that he was informed that the flat price for AA is 7.8/ kg next week if they held them. There is 30c/ kg bonus for AA from now to end of May. For O- AA that is a base of 7.52, for O+ it's a base of 7.46. So now we have it from 3 sources that the base for next week for smaller suppliers looks like 7.5/kg. @weatherbyfoxer posted it first and was accused of being affiliated to a factory.

If the processors are intent on dropping the price they will cut it as I pointed out. It will probably be dropped in 10-20c/ kg for 3 or more weeks.

Yes The journal said it that 8.3/ kg flat was available early in the week for AA but was getting very hard to get and processorswere moving away from flat pricing, and a base of 7.7/7.8 however they also posted that by the end of the week some processors were quoting 7.5/ base by the end of the week.

Like I posted in the last few posts, I have nothing to sell at present I be moving cattle from late May/June on. It's not in my interest for prices to fall. However trying to hold cattle is usually a losing option

Anto_Meath

Paid €10 / kg for roast beef in the local butchers at the weekend. It was beautiful by the way. See Tesco advertising roast beef at €9 / kg this evening on the TV so in all honesty that tells you where the price of beef will be somewhere around €7 - €7.50.

bogman_bass

this thread is starting to feel like the housing and banking sectors in 2007. Lads getting angry at any calls to take it handy in case it scares the horses.

you may disagree with other poster analysis but ye don’t have to take it personally and accuse them of being in Larry’s pocket.

Dissenting voices are no harm in these situations. Group think can be dangerous and there is a lot of money on the line.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123378567#Comment_123378567

"Constructive disagreement" is what the smart lads call it 😀