Uptick in Covid19 D15

Polar101

liamog wrote: »

We should go out and start moving the signs, whilst Dublin is in lockdown Ongar should declare allegiance to Meath, I only need a 250m extension

Could we declare to both Kildare and Meath, would be really handy?

Anyway, I'm sure the people who put up the signs would never cross over to the Dublin side for their shopping..

cython

blanch152 wrote: »

11 days later, the numbers are

Blanch-Mulhuddart: 127.5
Castleknock 95.4
Ongar 145.1

Two down, one up, a mixed picture, but none of them as high as the highest then, and the lowest now lower than the lowest then, so slight progress.

Those are the figures to Sept 21st, I think, (and the previous set were to some date between the 14th and 21st, as I recall, meaning that the delta was observed over the course of less than a week, never mind 11 days) in which case they're potentially significantly out of date already, and I'd near expect that data to be refreshed again before the weekend with something more current (and we can only hope more positive again).

cython

cython wrote: »

Those are the figures to Sept 21st, I think, (and the previous set were to some date between the 14th and 21st, as I recall, meaning that the delta was observed over the course of less than a week, never mind 11 days) in which case they're potentially significantly out of date already, and I'd near expect that data to be refreshed again before the weekend with something more current (and we can only hope more positive again).

New rate figures to the 28th available now as kind of expected, unfortunately all have increased again compared to the previous week

Blanch-Mulhuddart: 136
Castleknock 119.2
Ongar 173

Wasn’t Blanch Mulhuddart the worst area of Dublin back a couple of weeks ago?

Hurrache

cython wrote: »

New rate figures to the 28th available now as kind of expected, unfortunately all have increased again compared to the previous week

Blanch-Mulhuddart: 136
Castleknock 119.2
Ongar 173

You sure? I thought it was an improvement.

raheny red

I wonder if Delhi Darbar Clonee closed their restaurant on moral grounds with the Dublin restrictions? Commendable if so.

Brock Turnpike

raheny red wrote: »

I wonder if Delhi Darbar Clonee closed their restaurant on moral grounds with the Dublin restrictions? Commendable if so.

They've closed?

cython

Hurrache wrote: »

You sure? I thought it was an improvement.

There is still improvement in areas on the first LEA figures announced but the latest figures I posted for 14 day incidence (up to the 28th) show disimprovement as compared to the rates up to 21st. I've the three posts with figures quoted in sequence below:

First figures

Orobhsa wrote: »

BLANCHARDSTOWN-MULHUDDART Local Electoral Area has the highest incident rate in country: 189 per 100k of population in the past 14 days:

Other LEAs in D15: Ongar 128 and Castleknock 123 per 100K

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com

Update with rates to Sept 21st

blanch152 wrote: »

11 days later, the numbers are

Blanch-Mulhuddart: 127.5
Castleknock 95.4
Ongar 145.1

Two down, one up, a mixed picture, but none of them as high as the highest then, and the lowest now lower than the lowest then, so slight progress.

Update with rates to Sept 28th

cython wrote: »

New rate figures to the 28th available now as kind of expected, unfortunately all have increased again compared to the previous week

Blanch-Mulhuddart: 136
Castleknock 119.2
Ongar 173

Ongar has actually been getting progressively worse throughout, while the other two went down and have rebounded a bit.

raheny red

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

They've closed?

The sit in closed. Take away and delivery still going.

dodzy

Hurrache wrote: »

There was one put on the road into Kilbride from Hollystown, but I thought it was a temp one put there by the crew who dug ditches to lay cables. Either way, they've annexed 10/20 metres of Dublin in the process.

That’d be locals from sweeneys pub..... pissed at the D15 influx. Great food in sweeneys last Saturday.

Gerlad

dodzy wrote: »

That’d be locals from sweeneys pub..... pissed at the D15 influx. Great food in sweeneys last Saturday.

That pub would be long closed only for D15 people

dodzy

Gerlad wrote: »

That pub would be long closed only for D15 people

I’m doing my bit to ensure it remains open

Hurrache

dodzy wrote: »

That’d be locals from sweeneys pub..... pissed at the D15 influx. Great food in sweeneys last Saturday.

Sweeney's wouldn't have many locals if they didn't want people coming in from the D15 side.

blanch152

cython wrote: »

There is still improvement in areas on the first LEA figures announced but the latest figures I posted for 14 day incidence (up to the 28th) show disimprovement as compared to the rates up to 21st. I've the three posts with figures quoted in sequence below:

First figures


Update with rates to Sept 21st

Update with rates to Sept 28th


Ongar has actually been getting progressively worse throughout, while the other two went down and have rebounded a bit.

Not good news.

I did a quick average (I know it's not accurate as it should be weighted for population) and

(1) 147
(2) 123
(3) 143

The average dipping and then going back up, next set will be crucial.

Gerlad

raheny red wrote: »

I wonder if Delhi Darbar Clonee closed their restaurant on moral grounds with the Dublin restrictions? Commendable if so.

If it was closed. Delhi darbar restaurant is opened for sit ins

raheny red

Gerlad wrote: »

If it was closed. Delhi darbar restaurant is opened for sit ins

Awh jaysis, the part I read on their Facebook mustn't have been updated, d'oh!!!

rameire

14 Day figures released today.

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 172.8
Castleknock - 140.9
Ongar - 223.3

d15ude

rameire wrote: »

14 Day figures released today.

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 172.8
Castleknock - 140.9
Ongar - 223.3

Source?

rameire

d15ude wrote: »

Source?

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Its updated every Thursday on the map.

cython

Latest 14 Day figures released today.

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 226.6
Castleknock - 162.6
Ongar - 256.7

National average is 177.2, so Castleknock LEA slightly better than the average, the others markedly worse.

ongarite

Ongar 92 cases in last 14 days
Blanch 80 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 75 cases in last 14 days

The stats can change drastically with just 1 less case per day.

cython

ongarite wrote: »

Ongar 92 cases in last 14 days
Blanch 80 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 75 cases in last 14 days

The stats can change drastically with just 1 less case per day.

Agreed, in fact (standard metric nationally aside) it would arguably make more sense, given the scales involved in each LEA, to quote in cases per 10k rather than per 100k. However, psychologically 16, 23 and 26 (rounded) per 10k wouldn't have the same effect on people IMO when you're trying to get people to modify their behaviours to prevent spread, whereas numbers in the hundreds (albeit actually the same measure on a different scale) has more shock value.

Equally, the contrast quoted against a basis of 10k would be perceived as a lot less stark, similar to the absolute numbers you posted.

rameire

Last 14 day figures released

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 354
Castleknock - 251.5
Ongar - 284.6

Blanch 125 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 116 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 102 cases in last 14 days

rameire

Last 14 day figures released 29.10.2020

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 402.2
Castleknock - 299.2
Ongar - 307

Blanch 142 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 138 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 110 cases in last 14 days

ongarboy

They said the effects of Level 5 should start feeding through after 10 days so hopefully next week's stats will reflect that!

ongarite

Last 14 day figures released to 2nd November

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 348.4
Castleknock - 188.6
Ongar - 231.6

Blanch 123 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 87 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 83 cases in last 14 days

rameire

Last 14 day figures released to 9th November

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 269.1
Castleknock - 132.2
Ongar - 150.7

Blanch 95 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 61 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 54 cases in last 14 days

cython

Last 14 day figures released to 16th November

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 147.3
Castleknock - 114.9
Ongar - 134

Blanch 52 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 53 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 48 cases in last 14 days


All improving, but a massive improvement in Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart specifically

rameire

Figures up to the 23rd November.

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 158.6
Castleknock - 121.4
Ongar - 147.9

Blanch 56 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 56 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 53 cases in last 14 days

All up slightly.

rameire

Figures up to the 30th November.

Blanch - Mulhuddart - 167.1
Castleknock - 104. 1
Ongar - 86.5

Blanch 59 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 48 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 31 cases in last 14 days

2 down 1 up.

ongarboy

'What the hell?' - Glowing anti-vax sign placed outside GP office in Blanchardstown

https://www.independent.ie/videos/what-the-hell-glowing-anti-vax-sign-placed-outside-gp-office-in-blanchardstown-39835769.html

Someone has a strong opinion...!!

Zaph

ongarboy wrote: »

Someone has a strong opinion...!!

And only half a brain. I hope the Guards removed that asap. I suppose it would be a bit much to suggest that people disseminating lies like that should be forcibly infected with Covid to see how they get on, would it?

ongarite

I was going to suggest Gemma but something as high-tech as that is above her level...

miamee

I walked by there about an hour ago and it's still there...I was on the footpath behind it so didn't see the messages but definitely still 'on'.

rameire

Figures up to the 7th December.
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 124. 6
Castleknock - 99.7
Ongar - 108.8

Blanch 44 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 46 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 39 cases in last 14 days

2 down 1 up

rameire

Figures up to the 14th December.
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 68
Castleknock - 93. 2
Ongar - 173

Blanch 24 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 43 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 62 cases in last 14 days

1 up
2 down

ongarite

Ongar now 2nd worst area in Dublin per 14 day average.
Anyone know where the high case numbers came from?

DvB

ongarite wrote: »

Ongar now 2nd worst area in Dublin per 14 day average.
Anyone know where the high case numbers came from?

Its bizarre that the ongar area has such a high rate, I've not known a single person in D15 that's been tested positive.

liamog

DvB wrote: »

Its bizarre that the ongar area has such a high rate, I've not known a single person in D15 that's been tested positive.

Ongar does seem to go up just before anywhere else does, I wonder do we have a lot of nursing staff from Connelly hospital.

rameire

Figures up to the 21st December.
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 152.9
Castleknock - 145.3
Ongar - 320.9

Blanch 54 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 67 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 115 cases in last 14 days

All up.

ongarite

That's a huge increase for Ongar.
320 per 100K is near Donegal level of cases.

LorelaiG

liamog wrote: »

Ongar does seem to go up just before anywhere else does, I wonder do we have a lot of nursing staff from Connelly hospital.

You've hit the nail on the head

khalessi

liamog wrote: »

Ongar does seem to go up just before anywhere else does, I wonder do we have a lot of nursing staff from Connelly hospital.

Yup and schools

rameire

Figures up to the 28th December.
Per 100k
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 252.19
Castleknock - 284
Ongar - 399.1

Blanch 89 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 131 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 143 cases in last 14 days

All up.

rameire

Figures up to the 4th January
Per 100k
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 532.5
Castleknock - 858.5
Ongar - 717.2

Blanch 188 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 396 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 257 cases in last 14 days

All Up

Idjit

rameire wrote: »

Figures up to the 4th January
Per 100k
Blanch - Mulhuddart - 532.5
Castleknock - 858.5
Ongar - 717.2

Blanch 188 cases in last 14 days
Castleknock 396 cases in last 14 days
Ongar 257 cases in last 14 days

All Up

Holy God that is a massive increase from the last figures!:eek:

ongarite

Idjit wrote: »

Holy God that is a massive increase from the last figures!:eek:

Its fairly bad alright.
If you look at all the LEA in Dublin, the highest rate of cases are in the wealthiest areas. The well to do like to socialise a lot.

Howth, Malahide, Rathmines, Castleknock...

liamog

We've cracked it lads, Ongar has dropped off the top of our LEA list, that's always a sign it's about to start going down again.

raheny red

ongarite wrote: »

Its fairly bad alright.
If you look at all the LEA in Dublin, the highest rate of cases are in the wealthiest areas. The well to do like to socialise a lot.

Howth, Malahide, Rathmines, Castleknock...

Malahide is riddled all right. One bar in particular seeing aload of cases.

beauf

I don't think the figures are all released at the same time so I wouldn't read too much into it.

But it's interesting how people spin it. One minute it's high because hospital workers, school workers, bit but not everyone in the pub etc. The next it's wine bars and high end restaurants and no hospital workers, or people in schools.

However in a hospital you will have people on every range of salary from the lowest poorly paid to some of the highest. So from all areas.

Be better if people fixed the problem instead of the blame.