2020 Arc De Triomphe

RivetingRoger

The more it rains, the tougher it gets, Stradivarius might be the one!!!

The Tetrarch

My guess

1 Sottsass
2 In Swoop
3 Stradivarius
4 Enable
5 Way To Paris
6 Sovereign
7 Raabihah
8 Persian King
9 Japan
10 Mogul
11 Serpentine
12 Gold Trip
13 Royal Julius
14 Chachnak
15 Deirdre

RivetingRoger

Hard to go for Sottsass
Needed to make more of an impression at the Curragh for me

Rabbit Redux

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I am backing Japan at 16/1 for the simple reason that this is the first time in 8 runs that Ryan Moore is no longer on it

Wouldn't have a lot of faith in Yutaka Take to do any better though.

The Tetrarch

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Hard to go for Sottsass
Needed to make more of an impression at the Curragh for me

Hard to make an impression at The Curragh when he never ran there.

RivetingRoger

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Hard to make an impression at The Curragh when he never ran there.

Leopardstown, my apols
Arsehole!!!

The Tetrarch

k

longshotvalue

Soverign at 80/1 5 places is mad, and also he is 33/1 to place only 3 places all 365. Ive dabbled in both. Bunch of donkeys apart from fav, nothing between the rest of em.

tryfix

The race appears to be there on a plate for Enable. She should be far too good for this bunch, not too sure though that she will like Heavy ground.

I'm going for a bit of an outsider in Serpentine, he was good to me when he was supplemented for the Epsom Derby. They've supplemented him again when they could just have left him out of it if he wasn't good enough. He comes a family that likes Soft Ground so I'm not worried on that score, he has bags of stamina and he has a high cruising speed. His draw is bad but they say it doesn't matter on Heavy Ground.

Hoping to see Sovereign making the running with Serpentine making his way up to track him. I like Mogul but his G1 win was rated very low and this would need a 10lb improvement from him.

RivetingRoger

Tricast !

1. Mogul
2. Stradivarius
3. Enable

Get on !

The Tetrarch

ITV Racing: The Opening Show on ITV4 this morning was a painful watch at times.
Enable, Enable, Enable. Will she make history? She is already the greatest horse ever. Frankie went to soon on her last year.
I do not like excuses for defeats.

This in the Racing Post Weekender this week
"The Paris showpiece has the uncanny habit of producing the wrong result. Think back to when Akiyda beat Ardross, Subotica floored User Friendly and Sulamani succumed to the stronger finish of Marienbard. No way was Rail Link a superior horse to Deep Impact, and then the great injustice of Tony Bin robbing Mtoto. And let's not even go there last year. It can be a funny old race."
I think the same writer previously said that Orfevre threw away the race to Solemia in 2012.
For the record Deep Impact was only 3rd in the race and was subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance.

If I did get anything out of ITV4 this morning it was that John Gosden thinks Stradavarius will run a big race (trainer code for has a good chance), and Enable is not the horse of previous years. Perhaps John Gosden is trying to take the pressure off.

Longchamp: ground lourde (4.8): heavy ground

pottokblue

In the Arc I like Mogul, Stradivarius and Persianking

Today my longchamps bets :Mykiss, ladyprincess, glycon, paix, princesszoe, kaiserperle,

I fancy princesszoe the most and will do an L15: mykiss, ladyprincess, princeesszoe, kaiserperle

The Tetrarch

I keep an Excel file of the draw in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, all finishers from 1971 to 2019 (47 years, 1982 missing).
On fast ground a low draw is favoured. On soft/heavy the draw is less important.
I banded the 47 years into fast (14 races), good (16 races), slow ground (17 races).
Average draw of fast ground winners (5.5/16.3 starters), good (8.1/18.2 starters), slow (10.4/18.0 starters).

This morning I added another column: age of the winner.
Average age of fast ground winners (3.35), good (3.44), slow (3.71).
Number of wins age 3,4,5: fast (11,1,2), good (10,5,1), slow (6,10,1)
3yos do best on fast ground. 4yos do best on slow ground (even though they carry more weight).
Winners fast (4yo: Treve; 5yo: Marienbard; Tony Bin)
Winners good (5yo: Waldgeist)
Winners slow (3yo: Treve; Dalakhani; Sagamix; Workforce; All Along; Montjeu)

The 2019 race won by Waldgeist was 30th fastest of the 47 races indicating the ground was not as slow as many thought.

RivetingRoger

The Tetrarch wrote: »

ITV Racing: The Opening Show on ITV4 this morning was a painful watch at times.
Enable, Enable, Enable. Will she make history? She is already the greatest horse ever. Frankie went to soon on her last year.
I do not like excuses for defeats.

This in the Racing Post Weekender this week
"The Paris showpiece has the uncanny habit of producing the wrong result. Think back to when Akiyda beat Ardross, Subotica floored User Friendly and Sulamani succumed to the stronger finish of Marienbard. No way was Rail Link a superior horse to Deep Impact, and then the great injustice of Tony Bin robbing Mtoto. And let's not even go there last year. It can be a funny old race."
I think the same writer previously said that Orfevre threw away the race to Solemia in 2012.
For the record Deep Impact was only 3rd in the race and was subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance.

If I did get anything out of ITV4 this morning it was that John Gosden thinks Stradavarius will run a big race (trainer code for has a good chance), and Enable is not the horse of previous years. Perhaps John Gosden is trying to take the pressure off.

Longchamp: ground lourde (4.8): heavy ground

Take the pressure off who? The horse???

The Tetrarch

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Take the pressure off who? The horse???

My guess is the horse was not listening to that Sky Sports TV interview.

The Racing Post Weekender front page has "The queen of the turf bids to finish her career in the grandest way, by winning a historic third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe".
Inside the paper there is the "Enable special - will the queen reign one last time?"
John Gosden is sensible enough to try to lessen the hype from TV, newspapers, and social media.
It does not make sense for him to increase expectations and the extra pressure to deliver the win.
I hope my explanation clarifies my earlier post.

RivetingRoger

The Tetrarch wrote: »

My guess is the horse was not listening to that Sky Sports TV interview.

The Racing Post Weekender front page has "The queen of the turf bids to finish her career in the grandest way, by winning a historic third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe".
Inside the paper there is the "Enable special - will the queen reign one last time?"
John Gosden is sensible enough to try to lessen the hype from TV, newspapers, and social media.
It does not make sense for him to increase expectations and the extra pressure to deliver the win.
I hope my explanation clarifies my earlier post.

Extra pressure on who ?
Trainer? Jockey? Owners?

BagheeraBlue

Murtagh will tear lumps out of Keane for that

The Tetrarch

I have a stalker. :rolleyes:

byronbay2

tryfix wrote: »

The race appears to be there on a plate for Enable. She should be far too good for this bunch, not too sure though that she will like Heavy ground.

I disagree. I don't think Enable has anything to spare over this field and would be reasonably surprised were she to win. Big Lay for me at around 2.6 on Betfair.

maximo31

Great win for Princess Zoe there!

Slattsy

Princess Zoe! Told you all haha

Joe_ Public

Absolutely delighted for Tony Mullins, one of Irish racing's good guys. Paddy would be some proud man today what his son has done with that horse.

tryfix

byronbay2 wrote: »

I disagree. I don't think Enable has anything to spare over this field and would be reasonably surprised were she to win. Big Lay for me at around 2.6 on Betfair.

It's easy to look at her and think that she's getting on a bit, but finding one that should beat her on the form book is nigh on impossible.

kksaints

All of the O'Brien horses out of the Longchamp meeting tomorrow according to Sky Sports Racing.

Daraa

https://twitter.com/ballydoyle/status/1312487812919300096?s=21

Andrew00

Joke Arc weekend

EICVD

Great competitive days racing ruined.

tryfix

Feck sake, now I'm down to a small bet on Persian King and he'll need a lift in a horse box to stay the trip. ,��

The Tetrarch

I ignored my earlier analysis and had a few bets on Serpentine at 21 and 22.
This morning I bet 150 at 12s on In Swoop, although I think he lacks the speed to stay with the race.

markjbloggs

"Contaminated feed" , eh?

Hmmmmm...........