Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Penfailed

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Pubs that has smoking areas/beer gardens are open, they just can't sell drink inside without selling food but sure you knew this

Did I say otherwise? Nope. There are many many pubs with smoking areas/beer gardens that aren't open in the north because it's just not viable...but sure, you know this.

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A lot of our legacy debt from the financial crisis has been and is continuously being refinanced at lower rate, effectively reducing the burden of servicing that debt on the Irish economy, without going near the overall debt level

But we still have that debt on the books and if the cost of servicing goes up in the future (which is not inconceivable) then we are at risk. Add in the enormous new debt and a poor policy response to the economy and we are in trouble.

I agree that we need to borrow but it cannot be without limitation and it should be put to as best use as possible. Right now that is supporting private sector workers/business but we will need to invest in capital projects also.

dundalkfc10

Penfailed wrote: »

Did I say otherwise? Nope. There are many many pubs with smoking areas/beer gardens that aren't open in the north because it's just not viable...but sure, you know this.

You had a link to a thread saying pubs might not open on time in N IRELAND. When I point out they are open you say did I say otherwise.

They can open, they have a choice not like here unless ya sell food for €9

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

But we still have that debt on the books and if the cost of servicing goes up in the future (which is not inconceivable) then we are at risk. Add in the enormous new debt and a poor policy response to the economy and we are in trouble.

I agree that we need to borrow but it cannot be without limitation and it should be put to as best use as possible. Right now that is supporting private sector workers/business but we will need to invest in capital projects also.

rising public debt has rarely caused economic issues, its rising private debt that has caused most problems, historically speaking, but i will agree about investing it wisely, and stimulation of the private sector is a wise move

MickeyLeari

MadYaker wrote: »

Re national debt, I don’t think this is a much of an issue for a few reasons. This recession will be different to the last one. We know that in the next year or two these restrictions will be gone and full economic activity will resume so I think on that basis the government aren’t massively concerned about ballooning national debt because they know that the debt can be managed once the economy is fully open again. Another reason I don’t think this is such an issue is that every country in the EU is in the exact same position so I’d expect the ECB to simply give massive long term loans to everyone at effectively 0% to help us get back on our feet. I don’t think a return to austerity is necessary or possible politically here or anywhere in the EU.

There’s a lot of doom and gloom and stress in this thread and sometimes when I read the posts in here by people tearing their hair out over restrictions it’s like the last 5 months didn’t even happen and we can just ignore the pandemic somehow and go back to normal. There’s now nowhere on this planet you can go where there are no restrictions in some form or another and every country is more or less the same. I’ve been training myself to accept the things I can’t change and it’s making all this easier to deal with.

Not every country is in the same position. Others have reopened their economies far better than we have and have maintained reasonably low numbers (Germany and Denmark have reopened their schools).

There is a balanced approach which takes account of economic and public health factors, and I don’t believe we are even close to being there - the new Govt has become ultra cautious and is getting its messaging and strategy wrong.

The vast majority of cases are coming from four sources - direct provision, Roma, Travelling Community and food processing. Yet the target of NPHET is on restrictions to pubs/catering and foreign travel.

People who have been abroad have seen how this happy medium is working. Granted they have a climate which allows outdoor eating etc but people are showing common sense. They know the dangers of the virus but they also know the dangers of closing down the economy and the long term economic, societal and public health damage this will do.

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Not every country is in the same position. Others have reopened their economies far better than we have and have maintained reasonably low numbers (Germany and Denmark have reopened their schools).

There is a balanced approach which takes account of economic and public health factors, and I don’t believe we are even close to being there - the new Govt has become ultra cautious and is getting its messaging and strategy wrong.

The vast majority of cases are coming from four sources - direct provision, Roma, Travelling Community and food processing. Yet the target of NPHET is on restrictions to pubs/catering and foreign travel.

People who have been abroad have seen how this happy medium is working. Granted they have a climate which allows outdoor eating etc but people are showing common sense. They know the dangers of the virus but they also know the dangers of closing down the economy and the long term economic, societal and public health damage this will do.

pubs and clubs are still the most dangerous environments for this virus to spread, hence our current situation

MickeyLeari

Wanderer78 wrote: »

rising public debt has rarely caused economic issues, its rising private debt that has caused most problems, historically speaking, but i will agree about investing it wisely, and stimulation of the private sector is a wise move

The high levels of public debt in Italy and Greece has been a constant narrative - and indeed we will be subject to EUR rules again in a few years so there will be a need to rein in debt by cutting spending and increasing taxes. But you are correct when it comes to the US.

One other very worrying issue is nationalistic policies in some countries - Ryanair are a target now for Italy which is as much to do with public health as it does with the survival of Alitalia. This will put the single market back years.

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The high levels of public debt in Italy and Greece has been a constant narrative - and indeed we will be subject to EUR rules again in a few years so there will be a need to rein in debt by cutting spending and increasing taxes. But you are correct when it comes to the US.

One other very worrying issue is nationalistic policies in some countries - Ryanair are a target now for Italy which is as much to do with public health as it does with the survival of Alitalia. This will put the single market back years.

its important to understand why such countries have high levels of public debt, compared to private debt, it is mainly to do with the introduction of the euro, and these countries have been unable to compete with other eu countries, without having control over their currencies to do so. these countries truly are the canaries in the coal mine, the eu is in desperate need of the introduction of some sort of surplus recycling mechanism that is used in countries such as america and australia to do so. again, its also important to realise what has brought us to this point in the eu, bailing out of the banks and the implementation of austerity, has ultimately failed, it has not addressed the underlining issues of the euro, as explained above, it has though introduced further division in the union, which is not good for all of us.

major companies such as alitalia are currently being bailed out, this is understandable so, dont be surprised if ryanair go looking for their bail out, the longer this goes on, and i will agree, adding in strict stipulations as the french did with air france, will be critical, for these bailouts

MickeyLeari

Wanderer78 wrote: »

pubs and clubs are still the most dangerous environments for this virus to spread, hence our current situation

I have never said anything about nightclubs. Who wants to open them up?

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I have never said anything about nightclubs. Who wants to open them up?

id imagine the owners do, the government is gonna have to compensate all those affect by this, including business owners, or we re gonna end up with large dole queues for a long time

MickeyLeari

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its important to understand why such countries have high levels of public debt, compared to private debt, it is mainly to do with the introduction of the euro, and these countries have been unable to compete with other eu countries, without having control over their currencies to do so. these countries truly are the canaries in the coal mine, the eu is in desperate need of the introduction of some sort of surplus recycling mechanism that is used in countries such as america and australia to do so. again, its also important to realise what has brought us to this point in the eu, bailing out of the banks and the implementation of austerity, has ultimately failed, it has not addressed the underlining issues of the euro, as explained above, it has though introduced further division in the union, which is not good for all of us.

major companies such as alitalia are currently being bailed out, this is understandable so, dont be surprised if ryanair go looking for their bail out, the longer this goes on, and i will agree, adding in strict stipulations as the french did with air france, will be critical, for these bailouts

The Euro was flawed and continues to be. But we will be brought back into line with rules (hopefully more flexible) and the political economy reality is that we cannot sign up to any surplus recycling system as the price of that will be tax harmonisation. Whether the Germans will go beyond what they agreed last month is also questionable. But to be fair they are pragmatic when they need to be.

The reality for Italy is that public debt has remained an issue for their economy. It may be a legacy issue but controlling their Govt spending without recourse to currency devaluations and heavy state ownership has been a drag. France has also suffered under these constraints.

dubdaymo

I'll preface these comments by indicating that I do not go to pubs and have no plans to travel anywhere so those current regulations are of no significance to me personally but are to some friends.

I was listening to a programme on Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and I now have the suspicion that Nyphet may be suffering from collective OCD.

Why? Because they are completely obsessed with reaching a point of no new Covid-19 deaths and no new cases (which everyone knows is impossible for the foreseeable future) and all their recommendations are based on this premise.

Some of the irrational decisions being made are a mystery to most people and make no sense.

Further, Dr Glynn today says NPHET has "significant and growing concerns".

In the light of all that, OCD can happen to anyone and looking up definitions of OCD on reputable websites: (I am not making this up):

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) features a pattern of unwanted thoughts and fears (obsessions) that lead you to do repetitive behaviors (compulsions). These obsessions and compulsions interfere with daily activities and cause significant distress.
You may try to ignore or stop your obsessions, but that only increases your distress and anxiety. Despite efforts to ignore or get rid of bothersome thoughts or urges, they keep coming back. This leads to more ritualistic behavior — the vicious cycle of OCD.
OCD often centres around certain themes — for example, an excessive fear of getting contaminated by germs. To ease your contamination fears, you may compulsively wash your hands until they're sore and chapped.

With the country being run (down) based entirely on this obsession the question has got to be, at least, asked.

Penfailed

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

You had a link to a thread saying pubs might not open on time in N IRELAND. When I point out they are open you say did I say otherwise.

They can open, they have a choice not like here unless ya sell food for €9

It would appear that you don't understand what is actually happening with pubs in the north. Did you read the article? Loads of pubs aren't open and they're not allowed to open.

Penfailed

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Not every country is in the same position. Others have reopened their economies far better than we have and have maintained reasonably low numbers (Germany and Denmark have reopened their schools).

It's the summer holidays! Schools were actually open for July provision here too.

MickeyLeari

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id imagine the owners do, the government is gonna have to compensate all those affect by this, including business owners, or we re gonna end up with large dole queues for a long time

Many nightclubs are attached to hotels and those owners realise it is very delicate with night club reopening having the potential to put things back. I feel for the rural public with support needed urgently (it seems the back benchers are energised on this now).

MickeyLeari

Penfailed wrote: »

It's the summer holidays! Schools were actually open for July provision here too.

They were open pre Summer break as you well know.

average_runner

dubdaymo wrote: »

I'll preface these comments by indicating that I do not go to pubs and have no plans to travel anywhere so those current regulations are of no significance to me personally but are to some friends.

I was listening to a programme on Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and I now have the suspicion that Nyphet may be suffering from collective OCD.

Why? Because they are completely obsessed with reaching a point of no new Covid-19 deaths and no new cases (which everyone knows is impossible for the foreseeable future) and all their recommendations are based on this premise.

Some of the irrational decisions being made are a mystery to most people and make no sense.

Further, Dr Glynn today says NPHET has "significant and growing concerns".

In the light of all that, OCD can happen to anyone and looking up definitions of OCD on reputable websites: (I am not making this up):

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) features a pattern of unwanted thoughts and fears (obsessions) that lead you to do repetitive behaviors (compulsions). These obsessions and compulsions interfere with daily activities and cause significant distress.
You may try to ignore or stop your obsessions, but that only increases your distress and anxiety. Despite efforts to ignore or get rid of bothersome thoughts or urges, they keep coming back. This leads to more ritualistic behavior — the vicious cycle of OCD.
OCD often centres around certain themes — for example, an excessive fear of getting contaminated by germs. To ease your contamination fears, you may compulsively wash your hands until they're sore and chapped.

With the country being run (down) based entirely on this obsession the question has got to be, at least, asked.

There is concern because the cases are up over 50% in a week and still rising.


The virus is now spread more throughout the country than just in Dublin. Actually Dublin is more controlled.


A county like Wexford that had just over 200 cases in total at the peak has 15 in last 2 days.


Then on the international stage in strong hold countries that had controlled the virus, they are seeing higher number of cases than before.


We could find ourselves in a situation where we only seen the start of the storm.

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The Euro was flawed and continues to be. But we will be brought back into line with rules (hopefully more flexible) and the political economy reality is that we cannot sign up to any surplus recycling system as the price of that will be tax harmonisation. Whether the Germans will go beyond what they agreed last month is also questionable. But to be fair they are pragmatic when they need to be.

The reality for Italy is that public debt has remained an issue for their economy. It may be a legacy issue but controlling their Govt spending without recourse to currency devaluations and heavy state ownership has been a drag. France has also suffered under these constraints.

if we are brought back 'in line' using the usual nonsense of controlling the deficit and further austerity, you may forget about the eu, these measures are known to fail to achieve their objectives, and cause far more damage to economies and societies, the eu has a lot of growing up to do. i believe tax harmonization may occur anyway, and i think it probably should, we cannot continue as we are, most countries require an astonishing level of investment, regarding critical societal needs, housing and health care being obvious ones. i think as these issues persist, the 'pragmatic' elements of the union could be forced to change, if the union shows signs of further disintegration, interesting times ahead.

again, countries such as italy have been unable to maintain their traditional industries such as manufacturing, since the introduction of the euro, being unable to compete against other eu nations, primarily germany. state ownership sometimes can be a good thing, as it gives an economy some element of stability, as it develops, increasing privatization has increased instabilities, inequalities, and other potentially dangerous aspects, a good mix of both is required, to have some sort of stability and functionality in our economies.

paw patrol

Wanderer78 wrote: »

rising public debt has rarely caused economic issues, its rising private debt that has caused most problems, historically speaking, but i will agree about investing it wisely, and stimulation of the private sector is a wise move

There will be huge private debt over covid too - all those mortgages and loans that were unpaid while people were on the 350.
Business loans too (esp hospitality sector) are outstanding. Those bills will be whopper.

And as anybody who was around in 2008 knows. The state will not give a damn about you once this is over.
The banks will be protected again , individuals and business will be left to to fend for themselves.
At least you've had learn about self isolation in recent months cos you'll get it in spades come next year.
We are in this together & holdfirm - me bollocks.

all to protect the 6 people in ICU .

Wanderer78

paw patrol wrote: »

There will be huge private debt over covid too - all those mortgages and loans that were unpaid while people were on the 350.

Business loans too (esp hospitality sector) are outstanding. Those bills will be whopper.


And as anybody who was around in 2008 knows. The state will not give a damn about you once this is over.
The banks will be protected again , individuals and business will be left to to fend for themselves.
At least you'll have learn about self isolation in recent months cos you'll get it in spades come next year.

We are in this together & holdfirm - me bollocks.




all to protect the 6 people in ICU .

if we default this time to previous approaches and methods, we re fcuked, hopefully we ve learned enough from the last time, but i understand your concerns. private sector debts are always a concern, but pubic debt is more than likely gonna have to balloon to try deal with this, im expecting a significant financial sector wobble soon, largely to do with the private sector debt issues you mentioned, and the fact the sector will now be experiencing a significant fall in demand for new credit

MickeyLeari

Wanderer78 wrote: »

if we are brought back 'in line' using the usual nonsense of controlling the deficit and further austerity, you may forget about the eu, these measures are known to fail to achieve their objectives, and cause far more damage to economies and societies, the eu has a lot of growing up to do. i believe tax harmonization may occur anyway, and i think it probably should, we cannot continue as we are, most countries require an astonishing level of investment, regarding critical societal needs, housing and health care being obvious ones. i think as these issues persist, the 'pragmatic' elements of the union could be forced to change, if the union shows signs of further disintegration, interesting times ahead.

again, countries such as italy have been unable to maintain their traditional industries such as manufacturing, since the introduction of the euro, being unable to compete against other eu nations, primarily germany. state ownership sometimes can be a good thing, as it gives an economy some element of stability, as it develops, increasing privatization has increased instabilities, inequalities, and other potentially dangerous aspects, a good mix of both is required, to have some sort of stability and functionality in our economies.

I agree with a lot of that but I am far more pessimistic when we start to see the briefings to Ministers on austerity policies. The conventional thinking in Merrion Street has not gone away.

Wanderer78

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I agree with a lot of that but I far more pessimistic when we start to see the briefings to Ministers on austerity policies. The conventional thinking in Merrion Street has not gone away.

yea i understand what you re saying, its very disturbing to see our political institutions defaulting, the people will revolt at some stage, and that wont be good, all this can be prevented with different thinking

MickeyLeari

average_runner wrote: »

There is concern because the cases are up over 50% in a week and still rising.


The virus is now spread more throughout the country than just in Dublin. Actually Dublin is more controlled.


A county like Wexford that had just over 200 cases in total at the peak has 15 in last 2 days.


Then on the international stage in strong hold countries that had controlled the virus, they are seeing higher number of cases than before.


We could find ourselves in a situation where we only seen the start of the storm.

Where are those Wexford cases? Are they coming from Dubs in restaurants, and food pubs and on the beaches? No - they are in halting sites. Known clusters which may also be classified as community transmissions.

The Belly

paw patrol wrote: »

There will be huge private debt over covid too - all those mortgages and loans that were unpaid while people were on the 350.

Business loans too (esp hospitality sector) are outstanding. Those bills will be whopper.


And as anybody who was around in 2008 knows. The state will not give a damn about you once this is over.
The banks will be protected again , individuals and business will be left to to fend for themselves.
At least you'll have learn about self isolation in recent months cos you'll get it in spades come next year.

We are in this together & holdfirm - me bollocks.




all to protect the 6 people in ICU .

If your retired on a decent pension, Public sector or a person who doesnt want to work none of this is that important financially in fact its actually a benefit financially in a lot of ways.

For everyone else, this will be 2008 on steriods with no end in sight. Its going to shatter confidence and create a constant state of fear two things that are very bad for any economy.

The really scary thing from reading posts is people are just accepting all this as the new norm and do not see the consequences in the not to distant future.

dundalkfc10

Penfailed wrote: »

It would appear that you don't understand what is actually happening with pubs in the north. Did you read the article? Loads of pubs aren't open and they're not allowed to open.

Any pub with an outdoor area is allowed open. They cant here!

average_runner

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Any pub with an outdoor area is allowed open. They cant here!

Pub down at our campsite move its operations outside and opened up. All was inspected by the HSE regularly.

Idbatterim

vid36 wrote: »

20% of Covid 19 deaths in the USA are under 65 years of ago according to the CDC, but if believe the defenders of liberty there is no risk to the under 70s.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

You have a lot of overweight in that country. Doubt such fivures coukd exust , but would love to see the death breakdown by social class, assuming death count highest amongst lower class..

Wanderer78

Idbatterim wrote: »

You have a lot of overweight in that country. Doubt such fivures coukd exust , but would love to see the death breakdown by social class, assuming death count highest amongst lower class..

i believe it is primarily lower classes, and black also, i think

walus

Give it another 6 months and Sweden will look the smartest of the bunch...

Wanderer78

walus wrote: »

Give it another 6 months and Sweden will look the smartest of the bunch...

maybe, but its impossible to say right now, their health care system is also probably far more robust than our own