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EU Covid Situation

  • 08-04-2020 11:51am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    Cracks appearing already back to the north vrs the south, no lessons learnt from the financial crash.

    BBC News - Coronavirus: Marathon talks over EU virus rescue package stall
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52211650


«13

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Once a PI(I)GS always a PI(I)GS for the "rich North"


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,609 ✭✭✭✭ MadYaker


    Aren’t Germany helping a lot of us with testing? French and Germans also sent help to Italy in the early stages.

    Can I ask what solidarity you were expecting? With each country having a disaster of their own who’s going to be sending money and medical equipment abroad when no one country has enough for themselves? The time for cooperation will be during the recovery.


  • Registered Users Posts: 930 ✭✭✭ mountai


    Ah yes , the BBC pandering to the Brexit element . The "Little Englanders" are laughing at us now . These agreements cant be worked out overnight and the EU should be given a chance to arrange fair systems for helping the weaker nations . I have no doubt that a formula will be agreed . Example ---- They stuck by Ireland , and didnt allow the Brits to bull us . Have faith .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    mountai wrote: »
    Ah yes , the BBC pandering to the Brexit element . The "Little Englanders" are laughing at us now . These agreements cant be worked out overnight and the EU should be given a chance to arrange fair systems for helping the weaker nations . I have no doubt that a formula will be agreed . Example ---- They stuck by Ireland , and didnt allow the Brits to bull us . Have faith .

    To counter the little England response....

    https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/cracks-europes-shared-currency-reappear-virus-crisis-70000863


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,370 ✭✭✭ Phoebas


    How much help should we be sending to Italy, Spain and France.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Aren’t Germany helping a lot of us with testing? French and Germans also sent help to Italy in the early stages.

    Can I ask what solidarity you were expecting? With each country having a disaster of their own who’s going to be sending money and medical equipment abroad when no one country has enough for themselves? The time for cooperation will be during the recovery.

    Do you even know what the discussions are about? It's about a plan to help us all and which some of the "usual" suspects are objecting to by being difficult. Now is when everyone needs to pull together but some are just thinking about their home market.

    This is of course the biggest weakness of the EU - it's not a unitary state, when push comes to shove we all turn inward

    The actual "Corona" Bond isn't even being decided upon yet, and I think we can all guess where the fissures will be.

    Guardian
    Talks on a coronavirus economic rescue plan for the eurozone worth up to €540bn (£476bn) have broken up without a deal amid north-south divisions over the strings to attach to financial aid for the most-stricken countries.

    Negotiations were suspended after a marathon all-night video conference call between the 19 finance ministers of the eurozone ended early on Wednesday morning.

    The coronavirus pandemic is testing European Union unity, especially the inner circle of 19 countries that use the single currency, where there are stark differences over the question of shared debt. A dispute between the Netherlands and Italy, the two countries at opposite poles of the EU’s debt divide, thwarted an agreement on a package of loans that could be worth up to €540bn.

    Full story here https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/eurozone-fails-to-agree-on-540bn-coronavirus-rescue-plan


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,305 ✭✭✭✭ jimmycrackcorm


    Once a PI(I)GS always a PI(I)GS for the "rich North"


    Can't really complain. We don't have much in the way of solidarity ourselves when it comes to suggestions that we should harmonize our corporate tax rate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    Phoebas wrote: »
    How much help should we be sending to Italy, Spain and France.

    Did you read the article? What context has your question?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ completedit


    I hope so but huge reforms needed. Time to stop beating around the bush and either pursue a move towards full integration or just throw the whole thing out the window. Right now the EU is not fit for purpose. It has the potential to be an amazing force and has done so much to secure stability and peace in Europe but the task at hand has moved away from merely just preserving peace and to actually be a union fit to lead the world. I believe we can be that type of Europe but not in its current guise.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,376 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    Threads merged


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭ seanb85


    Thought it might be interesting to look at how each individual country in the EU has done and are doing, at the moment. Particularly important as we reopen, and hopefully figure out how the future might look.

    Austria, pop. 8.86m : for a long time looked to have been one of the best responses given they had a severe outbreak made worse by outbreaks at ski resorts in March, 7 day average peaked at about 750 daily cases in late March which was followed by a steep decline in case numbers, 7 day average was below 100 from April 21st, this continued to decline and was as low as 24 in mid June. This has been gradually increasing since late June and was 113 as of yesterday, not necessarily a second wave, but certainly would hope this trend does not continue and outbreaks/clusters are manageable.

    Belgium, pop 11.47 m : Country was very badly hit in the initial wave, they record all confirmed and suspected deaths in all settings as Covid, so this is probably over estimated. Case numbers peaked in mid April with a 7 day average of 1,453, decline was gradual and 7 day average dropped below 100 in mid June and went as low as 64. Again this has begun to rise and as of July 18 stands at 147.

    Bulgaria, pop 7 m : Like much of Eastern Europe the scale of the initial outbreak was very low compared to Western Europe, total case numbers currently at 8,638. Unfortunately they do not seem to have peaked yet and the rate of infection continues to grow steadily, 7 day average is now at at 209. This had been in the 20-60 range for much of March, April and May but has been increasing steadily since the beginning of June.

    Croatia pop 4.08m : Had a very small outbreak by comparison to the rest of Europe, initial outbreak peaked April 1st with a 7 day average of 74 daily cases. This declined rapidly and from mid May to Mid June were recording miniscule numbers typically 0 or 1 cases per day. Unfortunately, reopening and encouraging tourism and travel (and hosting a tennis tournament with public attendance) has re-sparked the spread of the disease. Cases now rising and current 7 day average is 83, surpassing the figure for the initial outbreak in Croatia.

    Cyprus pop 0.876m : Initial outbreak peaked in early April, 7 day average of 35, this declined fairly quickly and has remained consistently low for the past two months. Now stands at 3, as an island nation they are probably well placed to contain the virus and with strict entry requirements should be able to keep things under control.

    Czechia/Czech Rep pop 10.65m : Again like much of Eastern Europe scale of outbreak was low by comparison, strict lockdown and widespread mask usage helped get things under control in relatively short timeframe. Peak in early April with 7 day average of 277 daily cases. This declined to 40-60 range for much of May and the first half of June, restrictions were relaxed and pretty much everything is open, a goodbye to Covid party was held in Prague... mask requirements have also been relaxed. Case numbers are increasing and 7 day average is 106.

    Denmark pop 5.81m: Another country that responded well and kept the initial outbreak low, cases peaked April 8th with the 7 day average at 328. Reopening began in May (including schools) and so far has not been any sign of an uptick. 7 day average now at 33 (had been as low as 14 very recently) but with such low numbers does not look too worrying.

    Estonia pop 1.32 m: Small outbreak so far total cases 2,021, and looks to be under control. Peak was 7 day average of 60 daily cases in early April, now stands at 1. Biggest threat now will be importing cases from other countries (similar problem for everybody really).

    Finland pop 5.52 m : Another country that controlled things very well, 7 day average peaked in mid April with 165 daily cases, decline has been a bit more gradual than others but has been steadily maintained, now stands at 4.

    France, pop 67.03 m : One of the worst hit countries, (over 30k deaths) which had to respond with a very strict lockdown which has gradually been relaxed. 7 day average case numbers peaked in early April at 4,537, steady decline to 272 by late May. Figures have been a little wobbly and inconsistent, but seem to have relative control, 7 day average as of July 17 is 561, has been in the 400-600 for about 6 weeks now.

    Germany, pop 83.02 m : EU's largest country and certainly managing very well by any standards, deaths much lower than comparable EU countries, no doubt helped by excellent health service and availability of ICU beds. Peak was 7 day average of 5,387 in early April, this was down to 500 by 25th May, slight uptick related to large meat plant outbreak in mid June (which required localised restrictions) but this appears to have been well contained and 7 day average now at 394.

    Greece pop 10.72 m : Probably were quiet worried given 12 years of economic turmoil have severely impacted public services in the country, but scale of initial outbreak was surprisingly low and well contained (less than 200 deaths recorded so far). 7 day average peaked at 95 in early April and thanks to restrictions and widespread mask use had declined to 5 by early June. Heavily reliant on tourism as source of revenue and have reopened with this in mind, cases are rising but not enough to suggest a definite trend yet, 7 day average now at 30.

    Hungary pop 9.8 m : Once again as an eastern European country were seemingly spared as bad an outbreak by comparison to Western Europe. Peak was mid April at 7 day average of 102 daily cases, gradual decline and went as low as 3, now stands at 12. Death numbers are high by comparison to total cases 596 deaths out of a total of 4,333 cases, so perhaps testing limitations have not shown the full picture.

    Ireland pop 4.9 m: Amongst the worst outbreak suffered by a smaller country in the EU, 5th in the EU in terms of cases per million with just Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain worse by this metric. Deaths per million also very high with just Belgium, Italy, Sweden, France and the Netherlands worse by this measure, this was made worse by significant outbreaks in nursing and care homes and also because Ireland records deaths in all settings. Cases peaked in mid April with a 7 day average of 955 daily cases, declined and was as low as 7 by June 26th, has increased a little now to 20 but no significant increasing trend yet.

    Italy, pop 60.34 m : The first country in the EU to suffer very badly, outbreak in the Lombardy region quickly was out of control and they suffered significant deaths and overwhelmed health services. Case numbers peaked in late March at 5,645, 7 day average. Deaths around this time were approx 800 per day. Thankfully cases did decline and 7 day average is now 198 daily cases, deaths are now down to a 7 day average of 13. No sign of any uptick following reopening and mask usage continues.

    Latvia, pop 1.92 m: Another eastern Europe country that has not had a major outbreak, total cases so far 1,192 and 31 recorded deaths. Cases peaked on April 1 at 7 day average of 32, declined and now stands at 2.

    Lithuania, pop 2.79 m: Small outbreak as well, cases 1,932 and recorded deaths 80. Peak was early April and with 7 day average of daily cases of 54, this is now 7 and with low numbers hard to see any possible upward trend at the moment.

    Luxembourg, pop 0.61 m: Significant outbreak for such a small country but unsurprising given their location and importance as a political and business hub (low comparative fatality rate of 1.9% of confirmed cases). Unfortunately appear to be in the midst of a second wave. First peak was late March with a 7 day average for daily cases of 166, this dropped quickly and was as low as 3, with a 2 month period of low case numbers. Cases on the rise since late June and 7 day average is now 92. Will probably need to look at their restrictions to bring this back under control.

    Malta, pop 0.49 m : Have had a few peaks and troughs, unsurprising with such low numbers. Total cases 677 and 9 deaths, only 5 active cases at present. Currently recording very few new cases. Are probably well placed as an island nation to keep control, strict travel and entry requirements would do this.

    Netherlands. pop 17.28m : Similar to much of Western Europe have had a significant outbreak, cases peaked in mid April with a 7 day average of 1,120, this declined sharply and was as low as 51 last week, small uptick in the last ten days has brought this up to 94. Nothing obvious to worry about yet.

    Poland, pop 37.97m : Largest eastern European country in the EU, they have flattened their curve but unlike most haven't "crushed it". Hard to determine a peak, the 7 day average was highest at 452 in mid June and now stands at 318, given their large population, these aren't necessarily bad numbers. Deaths have shown a more significant decline, from a 7 day average peak of 28 in late April to 7 now.

    Portugal, pop 10.27m : Were spared the kind of trauma suffered by their neighbours Spain but like Poland have not managed to achieve the kind of case decline seen in other countries. Initial peak was a 7 day average of 803 in early April, this dropped under 200 in mid May but has been slowly rising since to 310 now. This has been attributed to clusters in parts of Lisbon, that have reintroduced some restrictions. Given their population and case numbers Portugal look to me to be in a tricky enough situation.

    Romania, pop 19.4 m : Cases currently rising very significantly, initial peak in mid April (371 7 day average) with cases declining until late May, obvious uptick since then unfortunately with 7 day average of 659 (Case numbers yesterday were 889). Probably need restrictive measures to bring this under control.

    Slovakia, pop 5.45 m : Were a model for controlling the initial outbreak, quick border closures, widespread mask usage and consequently have only recorded 1,979 cases and 28 deaths. Cases had declined to 0 or 1 per day in late May and early June. Have seen an uptick following reopening but 7 day average for cases is currently 12.

    Slovenia, pop 2.08 m : 7 day average peaked April 2nd at 48, declined sharply and was done to 0 or 1 from mid May to mid June, there has been a notable resurgence since then and 7 day average for case numbers is now 16. Not massively worrying but another country where significant vigilance will be required to control things.

    Spain, pop 46.93 m : Along with Italy probably the worst hit in the EU, 7 day average for case numbers peaked on April 1st at 7,800. Again required a strict lockdown to get this under control, and this declined below 300 in early June. Spain seemingly records antibody tests in their case numbers, so this can inflate the case numbers, but there is now a noticeable if gradual increase in their case numbers, most of these have been attributed to confirmed clusters and recently the Catalonia region where some restrictions have been introduced. 7 day average for case numbers as of July 17 is 906. Changes to how deaths are reported make it hard to get a read on this at the moment. Of the larger EU countries, Spain seems to be most at risk of slipping backwards.

    Sweden, pop 10.23 m : As everyone knows Sweden have avoided the full lockdown approach. They did implement some school closures, social distancing and work from home initiatives. No surprises their numbers are amongst the worst in the EU. Hard to figure when they may have peaked as they were only testing very limited numbers for a period, testing was expanding and they recorded their highest 7 day average 1,138 in mid June, cases have declined since then and this average is now 236. Recorded deaths have been in steady decline since mid April. I suspect their peak of cases in this wave was around early April.

    Just looking at all the above, it does appear to me that some of the smaller countries could conceivably go after elimination strategies, but this would involve strict border and quarantine controls which would go against EU principles.

    It seems the present plan for most is to muddle through and hope cases stay low with most businesses open and mild to moderate restrictions and social distancing in place for the foreseeable. This strategy seems to be dependant on an effective vaccine becoming available. If that isn't the case in the next 4-6 months, I think a the entire bloc may need to change tact.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭ froog


    it's July now, 5 months into this thing and the EU is still arguing about what to do around funding and there has been a deafening silence at EU level throughout. every country for themselves. what the hell does the EU exist for if not for global emergencies like this? i've always been a huge advocate for the EU, but my faith in the project has taken a huge dent this year. everyone in europe is tut tutting about the lack of leadership and disparate approach in the US but the EU response has been far worse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,619 ✭✭✭✭ ILoveYourVibes


    froog wrote: »
    it's July now, 5 months into this thing and the EU is still arguing about what to do around funding and there has been a deafening silence at EU level throughout..


    The EU doesn't seem to be very scientifically literate. They don't really have health depts at that level. This needs to change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭ Wolf359f


    froog wrote: »
    it's July now, 5 months into this thing and the EU is still arguing about what to do around funding and there has been a deafening silence at EU level throughout. every country for themselves. what the hell does the EU exist for if not for global emergencies like this? i've always been a huge advocate for the EU, but my faith in the project has taken a huge dent this year. everyone in europe is tut tutting about the lack of leadership and disparate approach in the US but the EU response has been far worse.

    The funding as you mention it, isn't day to day funding right away. EU countries are not struggling to fund day to day operations and can manage this year. The funding as you mention, is long term repercussions of closing down economies, there's no massive need for it overnight and on bad terms.

    Remember this is a health crisis, and the EU have no say in EU countries healthcare. I'm sure going forward, there will be changes in the EU budget and policies/treaties in regard to pandemics etc...

    If you're expecting the EU to click their fingers and make everything right.... well, at least you got something to keep ya busy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 MickeyLeari


    Good analysis - complemented by this data which is updated daily.

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 MickeyLeari


    froog wrote: »
    it's July now, 5 months into this thing and the EU is still arguing about what to do around funding and there has been a deafening silence at EU level throughout. every country for themselves. what the hell does the EU exist for if not for global emergencies like this? i've always been a huge advocate for the EU, but my faith in the project has taken a huge dent this year. everyone in europe is tut tutting about the lack of leadership and disparate approach in the US but the EU response has been far worse.

    I think the EU should have more responsibility and would certainly have more expertise than NPHET (look at their membership) by pooling expertise.

    However, the discussions in Brussels are about a 7 year budget. These discussions are always difficult.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators Posts: 81,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ biko


    Countries in central and eastern Europe have recorded much lower Covid-19 death rates
    The Czech Republic and Slovakia began their lockdowns before they had recorded any Covid-19 deaths.
    Measures like this saved them from rampant infections.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭ seanb85


    froog wrote: »
    it's July now, 5 months into this thing and the EU is still arguing about what to do around funding and there has been a deafening silence at EU level throughout. every country for themselves. what the hell does the EU exist for if not for global emergencies like this? i've always been a huge advocate for the EU, but my faith in the project has taken a huge dent this year. everyone in europe is tut tutting about the lack of leadership and disparate approach in the US but the EU response has been far worse.

    Completely agree, arguing over a rescue fund and have done very little productive. Very disappointing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭ seanb85


    biko wrote: »
    Countries in central and eastern Europe have recorded much lower Covid-19 death rates
    The Czech Republic and Slovakia began their lockdowns before they had recorded any Covid-19 deaths.
    Measures like this saved them from rampant infections.

    Yep, I was very impressed by those countries. Did not waste any time wondering if they should cancel a parade... I was meant to fly to Slovakia in early March, they closed the airport and flight was cancelled, all the while flights into Ireland continued.

    Their messaging with masks was excellent too, encouraged homemade ones, and explained they were to protect others not you. Our outbreak could have been lessened had we done the same. Even now we're struggling to get people on board with mask usage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,253 ✭✭✭ Risteard81


    Yet more proof that the so-called "EU" is a failed project and an affront to national sovereignty. This is why Brexit was absolutely the right thing. The so-called "EU" must be consigned to the dustbins of history.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭ seanb85


    Thankfully the EU have agreed to a financial recovery package, at least now the focus can return to the health crisis and driving down case numbers as much as possible.

    Belgium's 7 day average of cases has now doubled in the past two weeks, from 90 to 187. Hospitalisation rate now also increasing.

    Spain's rate of infection has now trebled in two weeks, from 8.76 per 100,000 to 27.39. Cases remain low in many areas of the country but Aragon, Catalunya and the Basque Country are struggling with a definite surge.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭ Bit cynical


    seanb85 wrote: »
    Spain's rate of infection has now trebled in two weeks, from 8.76 per 100,000 to 27.39. Cases remain low in many areas of the country but Aragon, Catalunya and the Basque Country are struggling with a definite surge.
    Would you happen to know how these areas were hit in the initial outbreak? I know the capital was hit fairly badly but I am not sure about the other areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,902 ✭✭✭ McGiver


    seanb85 wrote:
    Czechia/Czech Rep pop 10.65m : Again like much of Eastern Europe scale of outbreak was low by comparison, strict lockdown and widespread mask usage helped get things under control in relatively short timeframe. Peak in early April with 7 day average of 277 daily cases. This declined to 40-60 range for much of May and the first half of June, restrictions were relaxed and pretty much everything is open, a goodbye to Covid party was held in Prague... mask requirements have also been relaxed. Case numbers are increasing and 7 day average is 106.

    Czechia is Central Europe please. Else Austria is Eastern Europe too ;)

    Masks were mandated and borders closed 20ish March. The initial outbreak was about the same as in Ireland, number of cases started to diverge from Ireland in April. Total death count about 10 times per capita less than Ireland at the moment. Universal nationwide mask requirement was removed late June but since then reintroduced by local authorities locally in places with outbreaks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,902 ✭✭✭ McGiver


    You didn't mention Norway. Closed the borders 25 March, nobody in apart from Norwegian citizens who had to isolate for 14 day when entering the country. Later on, from June, they allowed EEA citizens, again with the requirement of isolation for 14 days when entering the country.

    Norwegians were told to socially distance and respected that - the discipline is good over there. Very good numbers, both cases and deaths, in the end.

    Closing borders seems critical to the containment (see Greece, Norway, Finland).
    Even better when combined with universal mask requirement (see Slovakia, Czechia).

    Countries which didn't do either fared much worse (that includes Ireland).


  • Registered Users Posts: 960 ✭✭✭ darjeeling


    There is a definite trend of increasing case numbers in western Europe.

    Apart from Portugal and - until recently - Italy, every country* in western continental Europe has seen an increase in cases over the last three weeks (Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria).
    Media reports have repeatedly cited concern among public health experts who are advising governments in these countries.
    This should not be a surprise. Every epidemiologist predicted months ago that relaxation of restrictions would result in more cases, and now we can see this happening.

    6034073
    NB: note log scale on y-axis


    Country|Jul 8 daily case avg|Jul 29 daily case avg|% case change|Jul 8 daily deaths avg|Jul 29 daily deaths avg
    Austria|91|143|+57%|0.1|0.4
    Belgium|87|341|+291%|2.6|2.6
    Czech Republic|104|211|+102%|0.3|1.9
    Denmark|17|39|+129%|0.6|0.3
    France|573|924|+61%|12.9|8.3
    Germany|374|590|+58%|7.3|4.7
    Italy|197|248|+26%|18.9|7.1
    Luxembourg|43|93|+114%|0|0.3
    Netherlands|60|186|+209%|2.7|1.3
    Portugal|325|216|-34%|7.6|3.6
    Spain|408|2156|+429%|4.7|2.1
    Switzerland|93|124|+33%|0.3|1.7


    At the same time as cases are rising, however, deaths have remained very low.
    The higher case numbers are in part due to better testing, but we've also got data showing relatively few cases in older people this time round, and there have been improvements in treatment since March.

    I'm expecting that countries will keep trying to find a balance, allowing as much economic and social activity as is possible without provoking a repeat of the earlier health system crises.

    Unfortunately the testing technologies and capacity available will not by themselves be enough to prevent outbreaks, so I think we can look forward to a game of epidemiological whack-a-mole throughout the autumn and winter.
    Schools, workplaces, venues, clubs etc will be closed temporarily when new outbreaks appear so that testing and cleaning can take place.
    Wider imposition of restrictions and even lockdowns may be needed as and where community spread takes hold.
    We are already seeing these kinds of closures and restrictions in many countries and so we have a foretaste of the disruption I expect to come.


    *ignoring the tiny micro-states, where numbers are too small to be meaningful


  • Registered Users Posts: 258 ✭✭ Wallander


    I've been having a look at some of the continental media in recent days (Spanish, German, Dutch). What's notable is that rises in cases are always being discussed more calmly within the country than rises in another country. In my opinion there is a lot of finger pointing going on from governments aware that their citizens are fearful and disappointed their government seems powerless (i.e. British government implying if you think we did a bad job, just look what's happening now over in Spain). Rising cases everywhere is concerning but some inevitability given opening up of societies. Very different context to March with contacts being automatically tested now when in March you needed to be in intensive care in some countries to get a test. Hopefully these higher numbers don't lead to another wave of hospitalisations, but definite need for vigilance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,201 ✭✭✭✭ bilston


    darjeeling wrote: »
    There is a definite trend of increasing case numbers in western Europe.

    Apart from Portugal and - until recently - Italy, every country* in western continental Europe has seen an increase in cases over the last three weeks (Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria).
    Media reports have repeatedly cited concern among public health experts who are advising governments in these countries.
    This should not be a surprise. Every epidemiologist predicted months ago that relaxation of restrictions would result in more cases, and now we can see this happening.

    6034073
    NB: note log scale on y-axis


    Country|Jul 8 daily case avg|Jul 29 daily case avg|% case change|Jul 8 daily deaths avg|Jul 29 daily deaths avg
    Austria|91|143|+57%|0.1|0.4
    Belgium|87|341|+291%|2.6|2.6
    Czech Republic|104|211|+102%|0.3|1.9
    Denmark|17|39|+129%|0.6|0.3
    France|573|924|+61%|12.9|8.3
    Germany|374|590|+58%|7.3|4.7
    Italy|197|248|+26%|18.9|7.1
    Luxembourg|43|93|+114%|0|0.3
    Netherlands|60|186|+209%|2.7|1.3
    Portugal|325|216|-34%|7.6|3.6
    Spain|408|2156|+429%|4.7|2.1
    Switzerland|93|124|+33%|0.3|1.7


    At the same time as cases are rising, however, deaths have remained very low.
    The higher case numbers are in part due to better testing, but we've also got data showing relatively few cases in older people this time round, and there have been improvements in treatment since March.

    I'm expecting that countries will keep trying to find a balance, allowing as much economic and social activity as is possible without provoking a repeat of the earlier health system crises.

    Unfortunately the testing technologies and capacity available will not by themselves be enough to prevent outbreaks, so I think we can look forward to a game of epidemiological whack-a-mole throughout the autumn and winter.
    Schools, workplaces, venues, clubs etc will be closed temporarily when new outbreaks appear so that testing and cleaning can take place.
    Wider imposition of restrictions and even lockdowns may be needed as and where community spread takes hold.
    We are already seeing these kinds of closures and restrictions in many countries and so we have a foretaste of the disruption I expect to come.


    *ignoring the tiny micro-states, where numbers are too small to be meaningful

    This is a really useful table in terms of the comparisons between the number of cases and the number of deaths. Clearly there is a 2-3 week time lag between new cases and the worst outcome, so I'd be interested to see this again in mid August.

    At the moment, I think talk of a second wave is slightly premature, I think it is coming and will come, but there is a chance that some of the increase at the moment can be explained by better track and tracing and better testing capabilities. But a relaxation of restrictions is bound to lead to some sort of rise in cases. Can this be kept under control?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 189 ✭✭ seanb85


    bilston wrote: »
    This is a really useful table in terms of the comparisons between the number of cases and the number of deaths. Clearly there is a 2-3 week time lag between new cases and the worst outcome, so I'd be interested to see this again in mid August.

    At the moment, I think talk of a second wave is slightly premature, I think it is coming and will come, but there is a chance that some of the increase at the moment can be explained by better track and tracing and better testing capabilities. But a relaxation of restrictions is bound to lead to some sort of rise in cases. Can this be kept under control?

    Personally I do think Europe is in what can be described as a second wave, we are seeing sustained but slow growth in case numbers in most countries, it is not rapidly increasing but looks likely to be more prolonged than the first wave as it is unlikely to be stamped down via lockdown.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,902 ✭✭✭ McGiver


    seanb85 wrote:
    Personally I do think Europe is in what can be described as a second wave, we are seeing sustained but slow growth in case numbers in most countries, it is not rapidly increasing but looks likely to be more prolonged than the first wave as it is unlikely to be stamped down via lockdown.
    No second wave yet. It's just a continuation of the first wave, because nowhere was the virus completely eliminated.

    There's a consensus that the second wave may likely come this winter.


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